Rob Singer's claims revisited

[jbjb]

ROB HAS NEVER SAID HE CAN TURN A NEGATIVE EV GAME INTO A POSITIVE GAME...There is one question and one question only: did he really win the money. Whether it was at a +EV game or a -EV game is of NO consequence.

*ahem*

Given that machines are programmed to pay out certain percentage over time, i.e. are "a negative EV game," then must it not follow that when a player claims he has beaten the casinos out of a lot of money over time that a necessary corollary to the claim is that he has turned it into "a positive EV game?"

Otherwise that only leaves luck, cheating, and leprechauns.

No. People win at -EV games.

NOT consistently and NOT for many years straight showing a profit.

[Rob.Singer]

*ahem*

Given that machines are programmed to pay out certain percentage over time, i.e. are "a negative EV game," then must it not follow that when a player claims he has beaten the casinos out of a lot of money over time that a necessary corollary to the claim is that he has turned it into "a positive EV game?"

Otherwise that only leaves luck, cheating, and leprechauns.

No. People win at -EV games.

NOT consistently and NOT for many years straight showing a profit.

Explain why these 8 of 10 sessions are guaranteed to be different the next 8 of 10. Maybe the casinos are "due"?

[tableplay]

I am sure that one of the VP Games/Strategies call for it but I can't think of one off the top of my head at this moment.
Although AKJ Rainbow on 8/5 Bonus Poker is a certain mistake.
I believe someone on this forum has the time to show how much that mistake will cost the player over time.

Hi Monet, rainbow JAK can be a hold in All American(USA) Poker since the straight pays 8 for 1 (in full pay AAP or most other variations where the straight pays 8 for 1). JK offsuit has a return of 2.4117 units versus 2.2803 for the JAK rainbow (99.17% 8/5 bonus poker). So for every dollar Alan wagers when he encounters this deal (JcAd8sKs5h), he is losing a little more than 13 cents on average. Not only that, but, as already discussed, the JAK rainbow actually has a lower probability of becoming a non-losing hand after the draw than JK offsuit.
The most amazing thing though Monet is that, even after reading this, Alan will not change his strategy.

[Rob.Singer]

I am sure that one of the VP Games/Strategies call for it but I can't think of one off the top of my head at this moment.
Although AKJ Rainbow on 8/5 Bonus Poker is a certain mistake.
I believe someone on this forum has the time to show how much that mistake will cost the player over time.

Hi Monet, rainbow JAK can be a hold in All American(USA) Poker since the straight pays 8 for 1 (in full pay AAP or most other variations where the straight pays 8 for 1). JK offsuit has a return of 2.4117 units versus 2.2803 for the JAK rainbow (99.17% 8/5 bonus poker). So for every dollar Alan wagers when he encounters this deal (JcAd8sKs5h), he is losing a little more than 13 cents on average. Not only that, but, as already discussed, the JAK rainbow actually has a lower probability of becoming a non-losing hand after the draw than JK offsuit.
The most amazing thing though Monet is that, even after reading this, Alan will not change his strategy.

Irrelevant. The difference is so small that it has no bearing in a session TODAY. And if you think it makes any difference to a player who sees that hand 20 times a week, that's delusional because the ap's you're talking about play until what they brought to the casino is gone anyway.

I hold only the Ace in such a deal. Twice on $25 TBP+ I've drawn 3 A's for $30k each time, and $25 vp was not played nearly as much as the lower denoms. So in that "long run" the ap's keep bring up, exactly how much did those two hits cost me again?

[tableplay]

I am sure that one of the VP Games/Strategies call for it but I can't think of one off the top of my head at this moment.
Although AKJ Rainbow on 8/5 Bonus Poker is a certain mistake.
I believe someone on this forum has the time to show how much that mistake will cost the player over time.

Hi Monet, rainbow JAK can be a hold in All American(USA) Poker since the straight pays 8 for 1 (in full pay AAP or most other variations where the straight pays 8 for 1). JK offsuit has a return of 2.4117 units versus 2.2803 for the JAK rainbow (99.17% 8/5 bonus poker). So for every dollar Alan wagers when he encounters this deal (JcAd8sKs5h), he is losing a little more than 13 cents on average. Not only that, but, as already discussed, the JAK rainbow actually has a lower probability of becoming a non-losing hand after the draw than JK offsuit.
The most amazing thing though Monet is that, even after reading this, Alan will not change his strategy.

Irrelevant. The difference is so small that it has no bearing in a session TODAY. And if you think it makes any difference to a player who sees that hand 20 times a week, that's delusional because the ap's you're talking about play until what they brought to the casino is gone anyway.

I hold only the Ace in such a deal. Twice on $25 TBP+ I've drawn 3 A's for $30k each time, and $25 vp was not played nearly as much as the lower denoms. So in that "long run" the ap's keep bring up, exactly how much did those two hits cost me again?

Congrats Rob, you lose only about 11 cents per dollar wagered when you draw this hand versus the 13 cents that Alan loses on 99.17% 8/5 bonus poker. You're saving 2 cents per dollar !! We are talking about 99.17% 8/5 bonus poker here, not TBP+. I have no idea what it has cost you because you never mentioned how much you lost when holding a lone Ace in $25 denom TBP+ - the only information you provided was that you got a set of Aces twice when holding a lone ace on $25 TDB+.

[Rob.Singer]

Hi Monet, rainbow JAK can be a hold in All American(USA) Poker since the straight pays 8 for 1 (in full pay AAP or most other variations where the straight pays 8 for 1). JK offsuit has a return of 2.4117 units versus 2.2803 for the JAK rainbow (99.17% 8/5 bonus poker). So for every dollar Alan wagers when he encounters this deal (JcAd8sKs5h), he is losing a little more than 13 cents on average. Not only that, but, as already discussed, the JAK rainbow actually has a lower probability of becoming a non-losing hand after the draw than JK offsuit.
The most amazing thing though Monet is that, even after reading this, Alan will not change his strategy.

Irrelevant. The difference is so small that it has no bearing in a session TODAY. And if you think it makes any difference to a player who sees that hand 20 times a week, that's delusional because the ap's you're talking about play until what they brought to the casino is gone anyway.

I hold only the Ace in such a deal. Twice on $25 TBP+ I've drawn 3 A's for $30k each time, and $25 vp was not played nearly as much as the lower denoms. So in that "long run" the ap's keep bring up, exactly how much did those two hits cost me again?

Congrats Rob, you lose only about 11 cents per dollar wagered when you draw this hand versus the 13 cents that Alan loses on 99.17% 8/5 bonus poker. You're saving 2 cents per dollar !! We are talking about 99.17% 8/5 bonus poker here, not TBP+. I have no idea what it has cost you because you never mentioned how much you lost when holding a lone Ace in $25 denom TBP+ - the only information you provided was that you got a set of Aces twice when holding a lone ace on $25 TDB+.

I don't keep track of that. But with $60k in hits in that game alone because of it and since I play far more hands at lower denominations than $25, making that hold has been a HUGE moneymaker over the years.

Where you guys get off track is when you equate a single hand played to playing it 20,000 times--and in my case, at the same denomination. Those are bad assumptions.

[kewlJ]

Hello Alan? knock knock. (KJ knocking on Alan's bridge) Alan you under there?

What is the deal here? Alan, you can't answer this simple question? Instead you are going to go into your tap dance and disappear?

You are so dishonest Alan. Did someone say "shyster"?

[Alan Mendelson]

*ahem*

Given that machines are programmed to pay out certain percentage over time, i.e. are "a negative EV game," then must it not follow that when a player claims he has beaten the casinos out of a lot of money over time that a necessary corollary to the claim is that he has turned it into "a positive EV game?"

Otherwise that only leaves luck, cheating, and leprechauns.

No. People win at -EV games.

NOT consistently and NOT for many years straight showing a profit.

And you know this to be a fact? Are there casino industry statics on individual players? Are there public scorecards for grandma's and gamblers across America who visit casinos from one to twenty visits a year?

You don't know.

But I suspect that elsewhere in the country there are others who like Rob have annual profits each year. Perhaps they aren't winning a hundred thousand each year, but they are winning.

Of course your mantra of "I must play +EV games to win" is not exclusive to APs. I look at Red Rock where the 100% VP seats are filled every day. Are they all card carrying APs? I doubt it. They could just be people who read signs.

[Alan Mendelson]

Hello Alan? knock knock. (KJ knocking on Alan's bridge) Alan you under there?

What is the deal here? Alan, you can't answer this simple question? Instead you are going to go into your tap dance and disappear?

You are so dishonest Alan. Did someone say "shyster"?

I answered the question kewlj. Did your GED include reading and understanding English?

I don't know if Rob won a million dollars but it is very conceivable to me that a high limit video poker player can win $100k a year.

Rob has never presented tax returns.

Why don't you ask me how many times you butt fuck? I have the same level of knowledge about your sex life as I have about Rob Singer's taxes.

[Alan Mendelson]

What answers I provide are based on information he has given me. For example, he doesn't claim that his special plays have a higher EV than the conventional plays and in fact he admits they have a lower expected return. He also has said he is not making -EV video poker "positive" with his strategy, which is kewlj's favorite allegation.

[kewlJ]

Why don't you ask me how many times you butt fuck? I have the same level of knowledge about your sex life as I have about Rob Singer's taxes.

Sad Alan....very sad.

[The Boz]

Why don't you ask me how many times you butt fuck? I have the same level of knowledge about your sex life as I have about Rob Singer's taxes.

Sad Alan....very sad.

More than sad, but not shocking. When they have nothing else they go to something they think will hurt you.

Just another way you are penalized for being so honest. I get you can’t play 24/7 but damn you take a lot of abuse for putting it all out there. You need to find another hobby for all your spare time. I hear VP playing hunches pays well.

[kewlJ]

Just another way you are penalized for being so honest. I get you can’t play 24/7 but damn you take a lot of abuse for putting it all out there.

Actually Boz, I didn't "put it all out there". Axelwolf did that for me, shortly after I began participating here. I guess he thought that it would be funny to 'out me' and subject me to the homophobia that runs rabid on this site.

[The Boz]

Just another way you are penalized for being so honest. I get you can’t play 24/7 but damn you take a lot of abuse for putting it all out there.

Actually Boz, I didn't "put it all out there". Axelwolf did that for me, shortly after I began participating here. I guess he thought that it would be funny to 'out me' and subject me to the homophobia that runs rabid on this site.

Not getting into that debate. Too much respect for both of you. That will get the trolls going, lol.

But you know what I’m talking about, you have put a lot of personal details out there.

How about those Sixers?

[Moses]

How about those Sixers?

Those young guys are a year older. Santa brought them a sweet early season schedule. Christmas Day will be interesting.

[The Boz]

How about those Sixers?

Those young guys are a year older. Santa brought them a sweet early season schedule. Christmas Day will be interesting.

Early season schedule is nice but doesn’t mean much come playoff time. Still see it as Philly and Toronto chasing Boston. Sixers still have money if anyone is looking to dump contracts at the deadline. Fultz is the key to me, if he is what he can be we have a big 3. Otherwise it’s 2 of the best in Ben and Joel but the Celtics have more and if Kawhi actually tries, the Raptors are right there in a 2-3 Eastern Semi.

[MisterV]

For Mr. Singer to have won like he claims he'd have to have been very, very lucky.

I'm talking about a type and quantity of luck which equals or exceeds that which Archie Karas had on his epic run at Binion's.

It's not even close to the "eighteen yos in a row" level of luck as reported by alan; it certainly is pushing the envelope of credulity.

[monet]

For Mr. Singer to have won like he claims he'd have to have been very, very lucky.

I'm talking about a type and quantity of luck which equals or exceeds that which Archie Karas had on his epic run at Binion's.

It's not even close to the "eighteen yos in a row" level of luck as reported by alan; it certainly is pushing the envelope of credulity.

You are a wealth of knowledge when it comes to the World of Gambling!
It is amazing since you are so busy playing -EV games and restoring classic vehicles and killing frogs.
I hope one day you can complete your objective of hitting the homeless scammers in the head with your baseball bat.
I appreciate the time you take out of your busy life, swindling Husbands and Wives, to Educate this Forum.

[Mission146]

See I believe (<-my beliefs) that Alan can count to 18. I also believe he understands the math more than he acknowledges. And I believe Alan does not believe Singer's claims, but is NOT honest enough to say so. Maybe he is afraid of Singer or maybe he just needs Singer on his side as part of his anti-AP agenda.

He certainly does not understand the math more than he acknowledges!
I just watched him hold AKJ Rainbow on 8/5 Bonus Poker!
I can't even think what game in Video Poker that you would actually hold that hold.
I am sure that one of the VP Games/Strategies call for it but I can't think of one off the top of my head at this moment.
Although AKJ Rainbow on 8/5 Bonus Poker is a certain mistake.
I believe someone on this forum has the time to show how much that mistake will cost the player over time.

Not in the mood, besides, it's more fun to think of a game where AKJ Rainbow is the best hold. The correct hold is the lone ace, but on 9/5/5 TDB it's at least pretty close because of the straight.

I've got it! All-American Video Poker. You know the one, FH-Flush-Straights = 8-8-8. Lots of bizarre holds on that game.

EDIT: Tableplay brought up All-American already, damn!

EDIT (AGAIN): It looks like K-J is slightly better on Faces & Deuces, but it's REALLY close, I'm guessing the FH is the difference maker there. Maybe ten-play UX Bonus Streak TDB with no multipliers on any of the current hands? It's a much better multiplier streak for a straight than a 3OaK, and pair/two pair do not give any multiplier streaks at all.

[Midwest Player]

Just another way you are penalized for being so honest. I get you can’t play 24/7 but damn you take a lot of abuse for putting it all out there.

Actually Boz, I didn't "put it all out there". Axelwolf did that for me, shortly after I began participating here. I guess he thought that it would be funny to 'out me' and subject me to the homophobia that runs rabid on this site.

KJ, please don't take any offense by this post. However, you certainly have at least put many clues out there. It is quite easy for anyone with a half a brain to read between the lines. I'm not talking about this site because I have only read it a couple of times, but personal info you have posted on blackjackinfo is a dead give away. I don't know if you are doing this by accident or on purpose, but at least I thought you should be aware of it. I'm not going to list any of the clues here unless you want them spelled out, but they are out there.