$25k challenge

[kewlJ]

Also, is the long term for single deck blackjack different from the long term for six deck blackjack?

Yes, the N0 (long-term) for a single deck game with decent rules (no 6:5 blackjack payout) would be less than 6 decks, all other things being equal.

BUT, I am not sure it is because of what you are thinking...being due to more cards available to draw. It has more to do with the higher IHA (initial house advantage) of 6 decks vs single deck.

I don't know, maybe it is related. I am above my pay grade here and just sort of thinking out loud.

[Rob.Singer]

mickey's the epitome of a broke loner who needs to make up pathetic stories in order to cope with his wasted life.

So mickey....since you are so sure that my strategy is a guaranteed loser, why are you not absolutely JUMPING onto my challenge? After all, with that "6-figure income" rolling in every year and with the hobo-existence you lead, you've GOTTA have quite the stash. And, as an added bonus, I'll play the ten sessions as being nos. 351 thru 360--a simple continuation to what I've already done. That way, instead of identifying them as being nos. 1-10 and looking at them as "Singer can get lucky in the short term and definitely win at least 8 out of 10", I'll be far enough into your "long term" where you feel comfortable enuf that I'll lose!

Sound fair? Got that tingle going up your leg yet? Growing any balls over it?

I never said you can win 8 out of 10. I offered you a 10K challenge a couple of years ago that I could produce a $500 win any day of the week if I get to pick the casino(s) and machines I play. You avoided even answering. You must be chickenshit. I made the first challenge. You ran and hid in your basement.

Now, I have reasons I won't accept your phony challenge. I've seen the movie to many times over the years. I've seen how you operate. Your challenge is phony because if anyone bites you are going to go into your terms and stipulations routine and sooner or later you will come up with a stipulation that will make it impossible for anyone to take the bet. So its a waste of time anyway. Other reasons? I don't need the money. I don't need the disruption in my life. And I couldn't even stand 4 minutes in your presence, much less, 40 hours. Fuck that shit.

mickey you're shaming yourself right in front of the very people you depend on to believe your bullshit stories.

Many times you've claimed how simple it is to win 8 of 10 with SPS. You then assert over and over again how I'll get killed in the "long-term". So, with your memory now mocked into shape, how many excuses did you come up with as to why you're too yellow to accept my challenge? And you're supposed to be some sort of tough guy? What a wimp.

And let's see if dis here cousin eddie slob can figure out what hillbilly location I said I'd play in. Hmm....oh yeah that's right--Mostly Laughlin....the gaming capital of the world!

Yeah I drove THRU Montana on my way to see my daughter. That's a far cry from visiting mickeycrimm for the purpose of making a measly $10k bet with a two-bit, two-fisted drinking barfly of a bum.

Uh-oh you're at it again! The Fezzik challenge was published in LV with no changes allowed. I put the same bet as here to the "deep pocketed Mensa AP's" of WoV 5 or 6 years ago, and the only change was by that coward MathExtremist, who talked such a big game as his minions cheered him on that when it suddenly hit him as being real, he came up with the stipulation that I had to pay his airfare and all his expenses.

Now mickey, with the flimsy excuses you threw out earlier, am I understanding correctly that your claimed "6-figure winnings each and every year" just ain't cuttin' it for someone who obviously is a sharp dressed man driving a Benz and dines at only the finest establishments? And how many ex-wives do you really have?

Wise up loser....and stop making a fool of yourself here.

[mickeycrimm]

mickey's the epitome of a broke loner who needs to make up pathetic stories in order to cope with his wasted life.

So mickey....since you are so sure that my strategy is a guaranteed loser, why are you not absolutely JUMPING onto my challenge? After all, with that "6-figure income" rolling in every year and with the hobo-existence you lead, you've GOTTA have quite the stash. And, as an added bonus, I'll play the ten sessions as being nos. 351 thru 360--a simple continuation to what I've already done. That way, instead of identifying them as being nos. 1-10 and looking at them as "Singer can get lucky in the short term and definitely win at least 8 out of 10", I'll be far enough into your "long term" where you feel comfortable enuf that I'll lose!

Sound fair? Got that tingle going up your leg yet? Growing any balls over it?

I never said you can win 8 out of 10. I offered you a 10K challenge a couple of years ago that I could produce a $500 win any day of the week if I get to pick the casino(s) and machines I play. You avoided even answering. You must be chickenshit. I made the first challenge. You ran and hid in your basement.

Now, I have reasons I won't accept your phony challenge. I've seen the movie to many times over the years. I've seen how you operate. Your challenge is phony because if anyone bites you are going to go into your terms and stipulations routine and sooner or later you will come up with a stipulation that will make it impossible for anyone to take the bet. So its a waste of time anyway. Other reasons? I don't need the money. I don't need the disruption in my life. And I couldn't even stand 4 minutes in your presence, much less, 40 hours. Fuck that shit.

mickey you're shaming yourself right in front of the very people you depend on to believe your bullshit stories.

Many times you've claimed how simple it is to win 8 of 10 with SPS. You then assert over and over again how I'll get killed in the "long-term". So, with your memory now mocked into shape, how many excuses did you come up with as to why you're too yellow to accept my challenge? And you're supposed to be some sort of tough guy? What a wimp.

And let's see if dis here cousin eddie slob can figure out what hillbilly location I said I'd play in. Hmm....oh yeah that's right--Mostly Laughlin....the gaming capital of the world!

Yeah I drove THRU Montana on my way to see my daughter. That's a far cry from visiting mickeycrimm for the purpose of making a measly $10k bet with a two-bit, two-fisted drinking barfly of a bum.

Uh-oh you're at it again! The Fezzik challenge was published in LV with no changes allowed. I put the same bet as here to the "deep pocketed Mensa AP's" of WoV 5 or 6 years ago, and the only change was by that coward MathExtremist, who talked such a big game as his minions cheered him on that when it suddenly hit him as being real, he came up with the stipulation that I had to pay his airfare and all his expenses.

Now mickey, with the flimsy excuses you threw out earlier, am I understanding correctly that your claimed "6-figure winnings each and every year" just ain't cuttin' it for someone who obviously is a sharp dressed man driving a Benz and dines at only the finest establishments? And how many ex-wives do you really have?

Wise up loser....and stop making a fool of yourself here.

Rob you ignorant slut. You are a great science fiction writer. Your phony bullshit is out of this world. I've never claimed to have made six figures every year. I've only had one year slightly over 100K. But I'm on schedule to do it again this year. You make a big deal out of making 1 Mil. Any working stiff making 50k a year will make a mil in 20 years. Figure it out. I've been at it for 26 years. I've made more money than you. Eat your heart out, hairball.

Find the quote where I said it's easy to win 8 out of 10 sessions and put it up. You can't, you lying sack of pigshit. You're a yellow bellied coward for not taking my bet. Quit with the phony excuses. Wise up, loser and quit making phony excuses here.

[Mission146]

Now, While I am not a math guy, nor a VP expert (my machine play is most elementary), I am sure there is something similar for VP and I am equally as sure that just like blackjack, the N0 would be much lower than you would think. Yes, I am well aware VP is higher variance than blackjack because of higher longshot type payouts, but I still think the N0 will be fairly low. I suspect a handful of royal cycles would cover it.

I'm not talking 1SD, 2SD or 3SD, I'm talking about mathematically possible vs. mathematically effectively impossible. I've already illustrated that just one, "Extra," royal in 2,000,000 hands on a 99.96% returning game puts a player up to 100% on Video Poker. The fact is that Blackjack (other than side bets) doesn't have anything even approaching an 800-For-1 payout, so the Variance of VP is through the roof compared to Blackjack.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob you ignorant slut. You are a great science fiction writer. Your phony bullshit is out of this world. I've never claimed to have made six figures every year. I've only had one year slightly over 100K. But I'm on schedule to do it again this year. You make a big deal out of making 1 Mil. Any working stiff making 50k a year will make a mil in 20 years. Figure it out. I've been at it for 26 years. I've made more money than you. Eat your heart out, hairball.

Find the quote where I said it's easy to win 8 out of 10 sessions and put it up. You can't, you lying sack of pigshit. You're a yellow bellied coward for not taking my bet. Quit with the phony excuses. Wise up, loser and quit making phony excuses here.

I thought I read where you said, mickey, that you have won more money than Rob? If Rob has averaged about $95,000+ a year for his ten years as a pro, you must have won more than that for at least ten years. Now you're saying you had only one year slightly above 100K. Gosh, I know I have memory problems but I think I'm not wrong this time.

[Alan Mendelson]

You've stated how much you've made in your career, 1.4 million. A little bit of creative accounting on your part as you left off the $250,000 you say you lost when you were an "AP.' I've been at it 26 years. I know this tears your whole world apart but I've made more money in gambling than you claim you have made. Try not to cry to hard. Maybe you will get over it in time. Please don't shoot yourself, er, ah, no, go ahead and do that. The world will be a better place.

Oops. Didn't take too long for me to find it. You've made more money than Rob. But I see it took you 26 years. So what's that on an annual basis? Let's take a figure of $1.5-million which is more than Rob's claim and divide that by 26. That's about $57K a year. Not bad. Do you get fries, pension and health insurance with that?

Edited to add: Somehow 26 years at $57K a year doesn't seem to match the rest of your life's story.

[kewlJ]

The fact is that Blackjack (other than side bets) doesn't have anything even approaching an 800-For-1 payout, so the Variance of VP is through the roof compared to Blackjack.

This is very true, Mission. Blackjack is all even money payouts with that occasional extra 50% for a blackjack, so this would seem to make sense. And while it is not my intention to argue the math, I play both game as part of my annual income and my wilder swings come from blackjack and it is not even close. I have swings of 40-50 thousand dollars regularly in blackjack including 4 different six month losing periods over the years. My blackjack results are frequently 30, 40, thousand dollars above or below expectation (accumulated EV) at any given time. While my VP results always hover much closer to expectation.

Now it is true that my VP expectation comes from free play. Maybe that has something to do with it. Maybe that free play constantly being thrown into the mix, offsets or prevents the volatile swings that I get with blackjack, I don't know.

[Mission146]

The fact is that Blackjack (other than side bets) doesn't have anything even approaching an 800-For-1 payout, so the Variance of VP is through the roof compared to Blackjack.

This is very true, Mission. Blackjack is all even money payouts with that occasional extra 50% for a blackjack, so this would seem to make sense. And while it is not my intention to argue the math, I play both game as part of my annual income and my wilder swings come from blackjack and it is not even close. I have swings of 40-50 thousand dollars regularly in blackjack including 4 different six month losing periods over the years. My blackjack results are frequently 30, 40, thousand dollars above or below expectation (accumulated EV) at any given time. While my VP results always hover much closer to expectation.

Now it is true that my VP expectation comes from free play. Maybe that has something to do with it. Maybe that free play constantly being thrown into the mix, offsets or prevents the volatile swings that I get with blackjack, I don't know.

What is your average bet in Blackjack and what is your average bet in Video Poker? You don't need to actually tell me, I think you already get my point.

[mickeycrimm]

Rob you ignorant slut. You are a great science fiction writer. Your phony bullshit is out of this world. I've never claimed to have made six figures every year. I've only had one year slightly over 100K. But I'm on schedule to do it again this year. You make a big deal out of making 1 Mil. Any working stiff making 50k a year will make a mil in 20 years. Figure it out. I've been at it for 26 years. I've made more money than you. Eat your heart out, hairball.

Find the quote where I said it's easy to win 8 out of 10 sessions and put it up. You can't, you lying sack of pigshit. You're a yellow bellied coward for not taking my bet. Quit with the phony excuses. Wise up, loser and quit making phony excuses here.

I thought I read where you said, mickey, that you have won more money than Rob? If Rob has averaged about $95,000+ a year for his ten years as a pro, you must have won more than that for at least ten years. Now you're saying you had only one year slightly above 100K. Gosh, I know I have memory problems but I think I'm not wrong this time.

Alan, don't you have any reading comprehension. I said I've been at it for 26 years. You only have to average 38K a year to make a million dollars over that time frame. My yearly average is a lot higher than that. And no matter what Rob says about 10 years he's been at it a lot longer than that. He's been at it since the early nineties. Figure out how many years that is. And he says he lost 250K his first five years. And no matter that he says he retired in 2009 he's still been playing and claiming to have made another half million in that time frame. If his claims are true he's only made about 1.2 million since the early nineties. I've made substantially more than that. Quit being so dense.

[mickeycrimm]

You've stated how much you've made in your career, 1.4 million. A little bit of creative accounting on your part as you left off the $250,000 you say you lost when you were an "AP.' I've been at it 26 years. I know this tears your whole world apart but I've made more money in gambling than you claim you have made. Try not to cry to hard. Maybe you will get over it in time. Please don't shoot yourself, er, ah, no, go ahead and do that. The world will be a better place.

Oops. Didn't take too long for me to find it. You've made more money than Rob. But I see it took you 26 years. So what's that on an annual basis? Let's take a figure of $1.5-million which is more than Rob's claim and divide that by 26. That's about $57K a year. Not bad. Do you get fries, pension and health insurance with that?

Edited to add: Somehow 26 years at $57K a year doesn't seem to match the rest of your life's story.

My first four years I might have made 10K a year at most. What's the rest of my life's story?

[mickeycrimm]

You've stated how much you've made in your career, 1.4 million. A little bit of creative accounting on your part as you left off the $250,000 you say you lost when you were an "AP.' I've been at it 26 years. I know this tears your whole world apart but I've made more money in gambling than you claim you have made. Try not to cry to hard. Maybe you will get over it in time. Please don't shoot yourself, er, ah, no, go ahead and do that. The world will be a better place.

Oops. Didn't take too long for me to find it. You've made more money than Rob. But I see it took you 26 years. So what's that on an annual basis? Let's take a figure of $1.5-million which is more than Rob's claim and divide that by 26. That's about $57K a year. Not bad. Do you get fries, pension and health insurance with that?

Edited to add: Somehow 26 years at $57K a year doesn't seem to match the rest of your life's story.

Do you know what the average income in this country is?

[Mission146]

He's been at it since the early nineties. Figure out how many years that is.

It's not very nice of you to throw these sorts of high-level math problems at Alan like that.

[kewlJ]

Rob you ignorant slut.

LMAO....Mickey channeling his inner Dan Aykroyd.

Oops. Didn't take too long for me to find it. You've made more money than Rob. But I see it took you 26 years. So what's that on an annual basis? Let's take a figure of $1.5-million which is more than Rob's claim and divide that by 26. That's about $57K a year. Not bad. Do you get fries, pension and health insurance with that?

Why do people do this? Why do they make everything into a pissing contest, like this?

AP for a living isn't really like this. AP, for a living is a grind. There aren't many that can make 100k a year, year after year for any period of time. Doesn't matter if it is blackjack or machine play, you will be not be undetected for too long. I suspect that is why Mickey travels a lot....to create an expansive rotation of opportunity, so as to extend his longevity.

Now in the short term, yeah, players can make more. In blackjack, my 70-75k a year that I average is small potatoes among blackjack pros. BUT most blackjack pros have short careers of 2 or 3 years, like the various known, high profile guys of the last couple decades and then they are running "bootcamps", seminars and writing books.

I have been at this 15 years, Mickey 26 years. We are grinders. Grinders find that level of play that is tolerated and milk it. It is that shear vs slaughter mentality and debate that I have referenced. AP just isn't going to get you rich in a few years. It is a grind. Anyone looking for the quick road to riches, better look somewhere else.

I suspect mickey is quite content with his range of earnings, as am I. To push beyond these limits, risks losing the who deal. And that is one of the problems with Rob Singer's claims. It is on the outer edges of what a player can do and really get away with year after year, for an extended period, without wearing out his welcome. That alone makes Rob's claims hard to believe, but when you add in the math....which just doesn't add up.....completely impossible!

[AxelWolf]

Gosh, I know I have memory problems

I think thats the understatement of the year.

You should include that statement any time you mention the 18 yo's in a row story.

I'm not sure how anyone can ever take you seriously on any subject that this point.

[Alan Mendelson]

Gosh, I know I have memory problems

I think thats the understatement of the year.

You should include that statement any time you mention the 18 yo's in a row story.

I'm not sure how anyone can ever take you seriously on any subject that this point.

I don't care if you take me seriously because you are insignificant.

[kewlJ]

Gosh, I know I have memory problems

I think thats the understatement of the year.

You should include that statement any time you mention the 18 yo's in a row story.

I'm not sure how anyone can ever take you seriously on any subject that this point.

I don't care if you take me seriously because you are insignificant.

Axelwolf is insignificant? Kettle meet black.

Alan, you may not like Axelwolf. Hell, I don't like Axelwolf a lot of the time. But he is a known AP, that supports himself by gambling profits. That is not a person who is insignificant on a gambling related forum.

Funny, you label Axelwolf insignificant, but you put a lot of stock in Rob Singer. Somebody's judgement is pretty screwed up.

[Rob.Singer]

Just wondering kew....you claim axel "supports himself" by being an ap. Can you tell us how you know this to be 100% true?

[Rob.Singer]

Rob you ignorant slut.

LMAO....Mickey channeling his inner Dan Aykroyd.

Oops. Didn't take too long for me to find it. You've made more money than Rob. But I see it took you 26 years. So what's that on an annual basis? Let's take a figure of $1.5-million which is more than Rob's claim and divide that by 26. That's about $57K a year. Not bad. Do you get fries, pension and health insurance with that?

Why do people do this? Why do they make everything into a pissing contest, like this?

AP for a living isn't really like this. AP, for a living is a grind. There aren't many that can make 100k a year, year after year for any period of time. Doesn't matter if it is blackjack or machine play, you will be not be undetected for too long. I suspect that is why Mickey travels a lot....to create an expansive rotation of opportunity, so as to extend his longevity.

Now in the short term, yeah, players can make more. In blackjack, my 70-75k a year that I average is small potatoes among blackjack pros. BUT most blackjack pros have short careers of 2 or 3 years, like the various known, high profile guys of the last couple decades and then they are running "bootcamps", seminars and writing books.

I have been at this 15 years, Mickey 26 years. We are grinders. Grinders find that level of play that is tolerated and milk it. It is that shear vs slaughter mentality and debate that I have referenced. AP just isn't going to get you rich in a few years. It is a grind. Anyone looking for the quick road to riches, better look somewhere else.

I suspect mickey is quite content with his range of earnings, as am I. To push beyond these limits, risks losing the who deal. And that is one of the problems with Rob Singer's claims. It is on the outer edges of what a player can do and really get away with year after year, for an extended period, without wearing out his welcome. That alone makes Rob's claims hard to believe, but when you add in the math....which just doesn't add up.....completely impossible!

Kew, all your "ap earnings" babble is irrelevant. $65k, $75k, $125k/yr. or whatever you people like to manufacture is stupid. My WIFE averaged more than that as an engineer for 33 years, and you wouldn't be happy knowing what I earned. But does what you guys claim come with vacation/sick/personal time, a pension, co. matching 401k contributions, bonus programs, or stock options?

In other words, WTF are you arguing about? It's like mickeycrimm trying to convince people that living in a dumpy apt. in the middle of nowhere while driving a beater is the end-all for a gambler's life! So how in any way, shape, or form are these supposed "earnings numbers" suppose to equate with having any kind of success? By you people being too stupid and lazy to have gotten real jobs, it is YOU who are being taken HUGE advantage of on a day-to-day basis. You idiots are pissing your days away inside casinos while the rest of the world passes you by. With benefits, even the cage cashiers make more money than you fools claim to. And they get paid for their days off.

So much ignorance in the oh-so-special "ap" storyline.

[coach belly]

I offered you a 10K challenge a couple of years ago that I could produce a $500 win any day of the week if I get to pick the casino(s) and machines I play.

And then you revealed that you would need to employ confederates
to front-load the machines for you, and then you would pick off the plays.

That's why you must play in Montana, pick the casinos and the machines...to cheat.

Talk about a phony challenge?...you admitted yours was.

[Rob.Singer]

Coach, that's because he's a chump, and that's what chumps do. And why would a bum who makes "6-figures a year playing nickel & quarter keno and slots" care about a chump-change bet like that anyway. Isn't he one of those capitalists kim lee talked about....waiting in the wings to take Rob Singer down? Gotta do a lot better than that, and gotta come up with a location outside the gaming capital of the militia states.