Card-Counting Is A Waste Of Time For Real Profitting

[jbjb]

We don't even know the impact card counting had.

Here's another quote from the Atlantic Monthly article...

The wagering of card counters assumes a clearly recognizable pattern over time, and Johnson was being watched very carefully. The verdict: card counting was not Don Johnson’s game. He had beaten the casinos fair and square.

Copied for emphasis.

From the 888.com blog which I'll link to when I have a better internet connection:

"In fact, things got hopping enough that the pit-boss failed to recognize Johnson card-counting, the guy next to him catching glimpses of the dealer’s hole cards and another collaborator sequencing the deck, telling Johnson when strong cards would be coming his way. Besides serving as distractions, the good-looking girls made small bets and ate cards when the count got bad."

https://www.888casino.com/blog/burni...of-don-johnson

[Moses]

Speaking of Don Johnson. I would advise against wearing bright flowery shirts in a casino. The other side see it as an out-of-towner dumb enough to carry alot of cash on them. I remember the early days. I was sick and my friend, the cocktail waitress, was giving me free hot totties for my cold for the price of a tip. Let's say I was downing them like chicken soup. I walk up to the bar to get another free one and I almost got more than that.

In trying to get her attention, I was standing next to a hooker at the bar in the middle of a negotiation. I'm proudly wearing my colorful shirt, naive as all fuck, unable to talk from a sore throat, and about half tipsy. Next thing the man on the other side thought I was cutting in...which was the furthest thing from my mind. Cocktail waitress? Yes. Hooker? O hell no. But he starts ranting "who is this Don Johnson motha fucka"? Now, I'm about to go mano with him because I thought he was talking to my cocktail waitress friend.

My buddy grabs me and explains what was really happening. I went home an threw away all my colored shirts.

[coach belly]

the guy next to him catching glimpses of the dealer’s hole cards

Is that where they stash the weak dealers that you can hole-card, at the $100K table?

jb's AP play of the month...can't wait to exploit it.

[Dankyone]

When Johnson and the Trop finally agreed, he had whittled the house edge down to one-fourth of 1 percent, by his figuring. In effect, he was playing a 50-50 game against the house, and with the discount, he was risking only 80 cents of every dollar he played. He had to pony up $1 million of his own money to start, but, as he would say later: “You’d never lose the million. If you got to [$500,000 in losses], you would stop and take your 20 percent discount. You’d owe them only $400,000.”

That doesn't say that he lost and used the rebate, that's what he said would happen if you lost, but that's not what did happen.

If it happened to him, then why didn't he use the first person?

He says if "you" lost, not when "I" lost.

He played one night and won $6 mil in one night...when did he lose and take the rebate?

Because that’s the way some people speak for God’s sake. He was doing an interview, not writing a legal document. It is obvious what he meant.

Of course in the night he won $6 million he collected 100% of it and started another trip later or elsewhere when he may have won. Or may have collected the rebate.. That is the whole point of the entire play.

[redietz]

Johnson is quoted above as doing exactly what I said. In the article I just posted.

Alan, he won by exploiting loss rebates. Period.

Yeah, what you have here is a forum with an absentee owner and two dominant posters, one of whom was a consumer reporter for KCAL who now pretends he can't actually read, and the other of whom is trying to sucker people into 25K even money wagers that he's a significant favorite to win, even though he has retired because he has all the money he needs.

Really, the forum does more harm than good with these two loose cannons. Todd/Dan should do the public a favor and shut it down.

Meanwhile, you have coach, who is apoplectic searching for a gotcha. Don't worry, coach. The Atlantic's wasn't the only major piece on the events. I'm sure if you look hard enough on your own, you'll track them down. You may have to find another library than the one you usually frequent, however. And coach, the attempt above at a gotcha -- really about three levels below your best. You need a serious vacation.

[jbjb]

the guy next to him catching glimpses of the dealer’s hole cards

Is that where they stash the weak dealers that you can hole-card, at the $100K table?

Can't wait to exploit them.

Go get them!!

[Mission146]

Is that where they stash the weak dealers that you can hole-card, at the $100K table?

jb's AP play of the month...can't wait to exploit it.

I also don’t think 100 k bets are conducive to getting through the dry spells.

[coach belly]

When Johnson and the Trop finally agreed, he had whittled the house edge down to one-fourth of 1 percent, by his figuring. In effect, he was playing a 50-50 game against the house, and with the discount, he was risking only 80 cents of every dollar he played. He had to pony up $1 million of his own money to start, but, as he would say later: “You’d never lose the million. If you got to [$500,000 in losses], you would stop and take your 20 percent discount. You’d owe them only $400,000.”

That doesn't say that he lost and used the rebate, that's what he said would happen if you lost, but that's not what did happen.

If it happened to him, then why didn't he use the first person?

He says if "you" lost, not when "I" lost.

He played one night and won $6 mil in one night...when did he lose and take the rebate?

Because that’s the way some people speak for God’s sake. He was doing an interview, not writing a legal document. It is obvious what he meant.

Of course in the night he won $6 million he collected 100% of it and started another trip later or elsewhere when he may have won. Or may have collected the rebate.. That is the whole point of the entire play.

Except that's not what actually happened. He got lucky and won from the start.

He didn't lose, didn't collect the rebate, didn't leave and play elsewhere,
and he is not quoted to say that he did any of that.

[coach belly]

The Atlantic's wasn't the only major piece on the events. I'm sure if you look hard enough on your own, you'll track them down.

I was provided a link to the Atlantic's article by Danky, I didn't need to look hard at all.

But I do recall reading a quote by Johnson claiming that he did not need or use the rebate,
that's why I replied and asked my question, and I haven't read a quote that says otherwise yet.

[redietz]

That doesn't say that he lost and used the rebate, that's what he said would happen if you lost, but that's not what did happen.

If it happened to him, then why didn't he use the first person?

He says if "you" lost, not when "I" lost.

He played one night and won $6 mil in one night...when did he lose and take the rebate?

Because that’s the way some people speak for God’s sake. He was doing an interview, not writing a legal document. It is obvious what he meant.

Of course in the night he won $6 million he collected 100% of it and started another trip later or elsewhere when he may have won. Or may have collected the rebate.. That is the whole point of the entire play.

Except that's not what actually happened. He got lucky and won from the start.

He didn't lose, didn't collect the rebate, didn't leave and play elsewhere,
and he is not quoted to say that he did any of that.

LOL -- coach, you do realize your responses have a Singer-esque desperation to them?

For a man searching so hard for gotchas, I find it very strange that you let the whole Argentino tax mythology just ride with nary a question and nary a gotcha. If you're not going to at least broach the truck-size holes in his alleged tax history, you lose all of that objective veneer of yours, don't you?

And yes, there were other summaries and other major pieces on the whole shindig. It was very clear Johnson used rebates.

[Alan Mendelson]

I'd really like to know what he got from rebates. Any additional info, articles or links?

I never liked Rob's tax claims and I called him out on it, but WTF has that got to do with this discussion?

[coach belly]

If you're not going to at least broach the truck-size holes in his alleged tax history, you lose all of that objective veneer of yours, don't you?

I can't comment on tax issues, tax schedules or preparation...I just sign the forms.

If you would be so kind, please direct me to some links about the Johnson shindig,
or is it less trouble for you to print them out, wrap them up like a mental patient,
and mail to Alan so that he can corroborate everything?

[Dankyone]

You know, when you go on an Internet forum you sometimes find people you don’t agree with, so you just let go.

[Elaine M]

If you're not going to at least broach the truck-size holes in his alleged tax history, you lose all of that objective veneer of yours, don't you?

I can't comment on tax issues, tax schedules or preparation...I just sign the forms.

If you would be so kind, please direct me to some links about the Johnson shindig,
or is it less trouble for you to print them out, wrap them up like a mental patient,
and mail to Alan so that he can corroborate everything?

Yeah that`s what most people like teenagers and busboys that make under 20 grand a year do too, understood....and dickbrain Alan won`t corroborate shit, he never goes to the office, remember?

[redietz]

If you're not going to at least broach the truck-size holes in his alleged tax history, you lose all of that objective veneer of yours, don't you?

I can't comment on tax issues, tax schedules or preparation...I just sign the forms.

If you would be so kind, please direct me to some links about the Johnson shindig,
or is it less trouble for you to print them out, wrap them up like a mental patient,
and mail to Alan so that he can corroborate everything?

I didn't know your expertise was a limiting factor in your search for gotchas. Evidently you must be an expert on whale-size rebates, card-counting, and the Atlantic interviewers, or you wouldn't be commenting, eh?

More than half a million people read the Atlantic, and I suspect those who read that piece and decided Johnson was not getting rebates are restricted to this forum. Coach, why don't you send an email off to the author and ask him if Johnson used his rebates? That should settle it.

[kewlJ]

If you would be so kind, please direct me to some links about the Johnson shindig

Check the gambling with an edge archives for the first interview with Don Johnson, probably some time in 2012.

If I recall correctly, coach belly is correct in that I believe he used the rebate 1 time. He won 4 to 6 million at 3 different casinos totaling 15 million. 2 of those casinos, Tropicana and not sure the other....maybe Caesars, were a single winning session of between 4 and 6 million, so the rebate didn't actually come into play. The third Casino was Borgata and the 4-6 million he won there was over 3 or 4 sessions, one a losing session that he collected the rebate and the other sessions winning sessions that he did not.

So while coach belly is correct that the rebate wasn't directly responsible for the wins and he just happened to get lucky and have winning sessions, that doesn't change the fact that the rebate was in effect....in effect making it so he was playing with an advantage, even though as it turned out he didn't need the rebate on those sessions. Sort of along the lines of a free roll. I believe Don stated that he would not have even been playing, if not for the rebate, or wouldn't have been playing the amounts (100k/hand) that he was. So the rebate is still very much part of the equation.

[coach belly]

I didn't know your expertise was a limiting factor in your search for gotchas. Evidently you must be an expert on whale-size rebates, card-counting, and the Atlantic interviewers, or you wouldn't be commenting, eh?

My comment was based on what I had read, a quote from Johnson himself where he claimed
not to have needed or used the rebate. Apparently a GWAE interview with DJ confirms that.

I asked how not using the rebate would affect his results.

Others replied to my comment...insisting that he had used the rebates.

As it turns out, my recollection seems to be correct...he did not.

[kewlJ]

On a very smaller scale, Casino Royale on the strip has a 20% rebate for machine play.

They have a $20 100% rebate for new players, that most people know about, but they also have a 20% loss rebate for returning players.

So you can go in on Monday lose $100 and get $20 back for a net loss of $80. Then go in on Tuesday and win $100 and keep the $100. In theory big player advantage. Unfortunately after collecting the rebate twice, they usually put an end to it, even though there is no written rule limiting usage.

Silver Seven had a similar rebate back when they were still Terrible's for table games. It was also 20%. Go in one day and play blackjack and lose $500 and you get $100 back for a net loss of $400, The next day if you win, $500, you keep the entire amount. Again, big advantage player. But just like Casino Rpyale, the stopped paying out the rebate after the second time, even though there was no written rule limiting the number of times. They just point to small print that says something about "at the casino's discretion".

Now I believe Silver Severs rebate is only 5% and is good on your monthly losses, although I don't bother with it, so am not sure.

[Alan Mendelson]

I would not be surprised to find out Johnson used loss rebates. If not, it would mean he never lost.

[coach belly]

Coach, why don't you send an email off to the author and ask him if Johnson used his rebates? That should settle it.

Or you could listen to an interview with DJ himself and maybe that would settle it.

Check the gambling with an edge archives for the first interview with Don Johnson,
probably some time in 2012.

If I recall correctly, coach belly is correct