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Thread: Mystery Progressives AKA "Must Hits"

  1. #1
    Monet had some questions about these type slot games in the Ruby Star thread. It's an in depth subject because of the myriad of configurations involved. So a thread about Mystery Progressives is called for. I'll post what I know about them as time permits. And anyone else can chime in.

    First, there was a thread over at WoV about whether it's random as to what numbers the mystery progressives hit at....and whether it would be legal to weight the randomness. DRich, a video game designer, said it was legal to weight the randomness and if he were to design any of these type slots he would make it weighted random where it would run to the top before hitting. There was no resolution in the thread as to whether the ones in the casinos today are completely random or not. My short answer is most are random but there are some that are not random, which I will get into later. First some history.

    It was at the Mandalay Bay opening in 1998 when the mystery progessives first appeared in Nevada. That casino opening turned into a hustler's convention because of all the vulturable slots on the floor, the IGT Visions, the Williams games, the Oddyssey's...and the new fangled mystery progressives.

    There were several banks of two-coin three-reel machines linked together usually with three mystery progressive meters on them. A typical bank would have one meter starting at $50 and must hit by $100, one meter with parameters of $100 to $250, and one meter with parameters of $250 to $500. These meters typically ran at 1 and 2%.

    There were signs everywhere hyping the "Lucky Coin Bonus System." You don't have to hit a line pay or jackpot to win these bonuses, just bet the right coin-in number and you win the bonus.

    It didn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that if a meter started at $100 and must hit by $200 then you played when you found the meter above $190. Since the banks were linked, usually about 20 machines involved, you weren't a lock to win the progressive each time because of the competition from the ploppies and other hustlers. But if you played every time a number developed you won your share of meters.

    These banks started drawing controversy. The ploppie/tourists had two complaints. The first, there weren't enough line pays on these machines. Thats an easy one to figure out. Three different meters with minimum reset money and 1 and 2% meters running meant a big chunk of the payback was in the progressives. That money has to come from somewhere so line pays were reduced.

    The 2nd complaint from the ploppies was they hardly ever won the progressive money. This was a no brainer to figure out too. You got 20 machines with a smattering of ploppies on them running up the meters. When a playable number developed the hustlers swarmed in playing two machines, if they could, as fast as they could go. The ploppies didn't have a chance. So two months after the Mandalay Bay opening they stripped all the mystery progressives out of the joint.

    I thought that was the end of it. But it wasn't long these MP's started popping up in other casinos with different games and configurations. And that's when I took to studying how they worked.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #2
    I'm fairly sure there were a few Mystery progressives prior to MB, but only a few. IIRC the Horseshoe even had some must hit system on a .25 VP bank for smaller amounts. I was just starting out so I didnt play it much(too risky for me at that time)

    Along with the Must hit's, the main part of the MB opening was their banking bonus system IIRC it was Acres Gaming who developed this system. It worked similar to the double time bonus system they later installed at The Pioneer, the Hurricain Zones found Edgewater Casino, Circus Circus and the Money Time round at NY NY, The Riveara, IP and a few other locations.

    Most, if not all, of these systems, required you to be active by playing at least one coin per 2 min or less depending on their system. You would time it as best you could, so not to have to play much before the bonus round started.

    At MB It was separated by Diffrent banks of machines and sections, there were 4 to 7 different sections. The Bonus Pool was player funded, it took a percentage of your coin in and build up untill it was ready to activate. When the mode was activated the machines would suddenly start flashing and you would get paied two times to nine times the normal amount paid for your wins during that time. One of the smaller $1 banks also awarded one player $20 once the mode was over.

    One section had multi-line .25 video slots, IIRC it didnt give the bigger multipliers out in that section. Depending on the number of players, It took a while for it to activate, but when it did, it was worth a fair amount of money betting max.

    You could also win some fancy new Car.

    One day, I noticed a bunch of suits watching in disgust as the AP's were raping them. I thought for sure they were about to start 86'ing everyone(I left). I swear, it was the very next day when they ripped the system out. That was A very sad day indeed, not only was that play very lucritve(Never had a losing day in there during this time) it was really fun. And the Comps were great including shows and Boxing.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    These banks started drawing controversy. The ploppie/tourists had two complaints. The first, there weren't enough line pays on these machines. Thats an easy one to figure out. Three different meters with minimum reset money and 1 and 2% meters running meant a big chunk of the payback was in the progressives. That money has to come from somewhere so line pays were reduced.

    The 2nd complaint from the ploppies was they hardly ever won the progressive money. This was a no brainer to figure out too. You got 20 machines with a smattering of ploppies on them running up the meters. When a playable number developed the hustlers swarmed in playing two machines, if they could, as fast as they could go. The ploppies didn't have a chance. So two months after the Mandalay Bay opening they stripped all the mystery progressives out of the joint.

    I thought that was the end of it. But it wasn't long these MP's started popping up in other casinos with different games and configurations. And that's when I took to studying how they worked.
    Great stuff!

    I imagine that the reels may have better overall returns in Vegas, but the one meaningful thing that I can add (unless we're supposed to be getting into specifics on figuring out if they're good) is that the returns on the reels truly suck in some areas and AP's need to be ready for that.

    The return on the reels not only sucks, but how an AP will, "Run," is often heavily dependent on Bonus Games. This is true on ALL of the, "Unlimited Free Games," type ones (which also have Balance of Fortune sometimes) as well as a ton of others. In fact, best to just assume that it's going to be true of all of them that a particular play's actual return is going to be heavily dependent on Free Games.

    The return on the reels is often in the VERY LOW 80's for pennies and is sometimes not much better even at higher denominations. I have enough of a sample size on one particular type of machine betting low amounts per spin while chasing must-hits that I can put the return on the reels (including free games) at about 82%. That means that those machines pay in the neighborhood of 84-85% all told (if you started from base and never stopped playing).

    From the few plays that I have direct information on, witnessed or played at the $1 denomination in this area, those reels may pay as low as 85%. That's what the evidence points to, anyway, but the sample size of my experiences and direct information on those is far less.

    Personally, I assume that the machine will hit at the halfway point of wherever it is and the must-hit amount and assume that the reels hold 20%. That in combination with the meter move is how I determine whether or not I think a machine is playable. That doesn't mean I will always play it. When deciding whether or not I personally want to play something, I assume I will have to push it halfway and that the reels will hold 30%. Essentially, I'm just assuming that I'll run badly to account for the Variance of the Free Games. If it's still a good play assuming I lose 30% of the expected coin-in on the reels, then I'll take it if I'm funded.

    The number of must-hit units relative to other machines varies by casino, but there are more than there used to be just about everywhere. They may even be as many as roughly one in every four machines, especially in smaller casinos. Ironically, I have found fewer plays as more get added just because the ploppy action gets spread around more. My home casino's must-hits once just consisted of about six Quick Strikes and an eight-bank of unlinked G+ units, I had more plays when that was the case than now because it was a novelty, then. Also, players who like those specifically (for whatever reason) only had those to choose from.

    Some ploppies like watching the meter go up knowing they will hit when it hits that number or before. There are obviously not as many people as before new to the machines, so most people are not surprised and/or already know the meters move pretty slowly. The meters would move up much more quickly before players were aware of this as they would likely just assume they moved faster than they did and look up surprised at how little they had gone up.

    There is increased competition both from AP's and ploppies who think they have a good number as compared to before. Many ploppies will play bad numbers thinking that they are good and well-bankrolled ploppies are the worst for AP's in this regard. They will play before they should have, lose money more often than not, but have the bankroll to see it through such that the AP never gets an opportunity on that machine that otherwise may have come to fruition. The competition from hustlers is often such that they are willing to take any, "Good," number regardless of how thin the advantage is. The only advantage is that they aren't vulturing the other machines if they are chained to a must-hit.

    Linked must-hit machines are definitely an exception now, based on my travels, but in my experience they always were an exception. Personally, I'm happy with that arrangement. If I'm going to get on a play, I'd rather do so knowing I'm going to be the one who pops it.

    I think that the majority of ploppies don't complain about the machines anymore, for the most part, I think they just play if they like the base game and are pretty ambivalent to the must-hit aspect. It essentially becomes just a potential, "Jackpot," like any other.

  4. #4
    I actually have a little story from day before yesterday I just thought of:

    I had meandered around the casino vulturing and was all done with that. I noticed that there were two people on two different target machines near each other, basically an oasis right beside a desert.

    Anyway, I also noticed a lady on a Quick Strike must-hit by $50 at about $47.50, but it only had a $1.50 meter move:

    (50+47.50)/2 = $48.75

    4875 - 4750 = 125

    125 * 1.5 = 187.5

    187.5 * .2 = $37.50

    I would go ahead and just use the 20% lost to the reels for this one since there's not a ton of risk. That gives the play a value of $12.50 if I were able to start where it was at that time and it would take just under a half hour to hit (expectation) had I been able to start there, so $25/hour play, essentially.

    Anyway, I do a walkaround (I'm not one to camp right on top of people) and I come back and she's down to $3.00 on the machine and the meter is up to about $37.65, something like that. She loses the $3.00 and sticks a $20 in the machine, she's not playing stupidly slow or anything (and someone might get off of the vulture machines) so I decide just to go get another cup of coffee and keep waiting.

    Another walkaround and next thing I know she has insufficient credits for a bet and starts feeding the machine fives. I catch a play on one of the vulture machines and do that to come back and see her feeding another $5. In the meantime, the play is getting better and better if I can get on it.

    The long and short of it is that I actually witnessed her feed six fives (thinking: Jesus Christ, how many fives does she have!?) and then she starts feeding the stupid thing singles.

    I actually felt silly waiting out such a small play, but it was actually becoming validated more and more by the minute. Here she is feeding the machine singles and about to tap out and, if she does, I'm going to get a great freaking number. It was about $48.80, at this point. Now the play has a positive expected value of about $31.40 if I can get on it.

    At this point, I'm sitting a few rows behind her and just waiting, but I also have an angle of sight on the other vulturable machine. It seems like she's winning every single time she'd be down to her last bet on that dollar, but I didn't know if she had more singles or not. Anyway, she finally has insufficient credits to make another bet and...you guessed it...goes through her wallet and finds nothing...then gets in her purse and pulls out a $182.xx slot ticket that she feeds the machine!

    I don't know what the moral of the story is. I guess it's just funny that I waited that out and then it turned out that she was sitting on a ticket that was enough to guarantee the whole time after putting a bunch of fives and singles in. Maybe some would say pathetic. That's just the mindset, you see +EV and you want the +EV. Maybe it is pathetic. I'm fine with being pathetic if that's the case...I think the whole thing is fun.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    but it only had a $1.50 meter move:
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?
    Thanks, TP

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    but it only had a $1.50 meter move:
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?Thanks, TP
    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    but it only had a $1.50 meter move:
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?Thanks, TP
    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    Sorry Mickey (the question you answered is very helpful also), what I meant was, for a given meter, can the amount of coin-in required to move a meter some unit (like a penny) change depending on the current value of the meter ? And, if so, how common is this compared to machines where the coin-in to move the meter a penny never changes ? So say a $100 meter "must hit" is currently at $80 and requires $1.50 coin-in to move it a penny, but higher up at $95.00 it now requires $2 to move the meter a penny (and if it has more than one meter are the meters all non-constant, all constant or mixed). I was hoping the percentage of machines with non-constant meters was small.
    Thanks Mickey, TP.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?Thanks, TP
    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    Sorry Mickey (the question you answered is very helpful also), what I meant was, for a given meter, can the amount of coin-in required to move a meter some unit (like a penny) change depending on the current value of the meter ? And, if so, how common is this compared to machines where the coin-in to move the meter a penny never changes ? So say a $100 meter "must hit" is currently at $80 and requires $1.50 coin-in to move it a penny, but higher up at $95.00 it now requires $2 to move the meter a penny (and if it has more than one meter are the meters all non-constant, all constant or mixed). I was hoping the percentage of machines with non-constant meters was small.
    Thanks Mickey, TP.
    I've never seen fluctuating meters on must hits. The only case I remember was years ago when all the bartops at the El Dorado/Reno were $1 9/6 Jacks with a linked progressive. IIRC, the meter initially ran at .75% but at some point, I think it was $6000, it started running at half the rate, .375%.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    Sorry Mickey (the question you answered is very helpful also), what I meant was, for a given meter, can the amount of coin-in required to move a meter some unit (like a penny) change depending on the current value of the meter ? And, if so, how common is this compared to machines where the coin-in to move the meter a penny never changes ? So say a $100 meter "must hit" is currently at $80 and requires $1.50 coin-in to move it a penny, but higher up at $95.00 it now requires $2 to move the meter a penny (and if it has more than one meter are the meters all non-constant, all constant or mixed). I was hoping the percentage of machines with non-constant meters was small.
    Thanks Mickey, TP.
    I've never seen fluctuating meters on must hits. The only case I remember was years ago when all the bartops at the El Dorado/Reno were $1 9/6 Jacks with a linked progressive. IIRC, the meter initially ran at .75% but at some point, I think it was $6000, it started running at half the rate, .375%.
    Thanks a lot for the info Mickey.

  10. #10
    I stumbled across a Ruby Star yesterday so sat down and clocked the meters. I encountered the slowest meter speed I've ever found. On the Major (starts at $80 must hit by $100) a $7.50 wager moves the meter one penny. The decimal looks like this: 0.0013333.

    So a $750 wager will move the meter $1. With the meter starting at $80 and must hit by $100 the average hit would be $90. It takes a $7500 wager to move the meter from $80 to $90. The payback this meter represents is:

    90/7500 = 1.2%

    So if we find one with the meter at $96 how much is the payback then? From that entry point, with it being random the average hit would be $98. Since it's $750 to move the meter $1 it would take a $1500 wager to move it $2.

    98/1500 = 6.5333%

    I'm like Mission, I figure at least a 20% drain (80% payback) in the main game. So no, monet didn't have a positive play. It wouldn't even be positive at $99.

    Must hits with these kind of configurations, starting at $80 must hit by $100, are designed to make the number look close to the maximum. But the very slow meter speed means it's a long ways from the top. Meter speed is everything on these plays.

    BTW, the $40 to $50 meter takes $5 to move it a penny. The decimal is 0.002.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It wouldn't even be positive at $99.
    I made a little boo boo with this statement. I was thinking a $750 wager. AT $99 the average hit would be $99.50. That would be just a $375 wager.

    99.5/375 = 26.5333%

    So figuring a 20% drain the extra 26.5% would put the game in positive territory.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #12
    Another thing about must hit plays. These are not games where when you find a close number you eke out a small win everytime. Say you figure a 10% edge on an average $300 wager. You've got $30 in equity. Through a few dozen plays you might average that. But from play to play you will experience some insane variance. These games are designed with high variance. You might experience a 50 or 60% drain on the action, therefore booking a loss, or experience 50 or 100% positive variance, therefore booking a nice win.

    I consider the equity in the meter to be the juice.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #13
    The Ruby Star $40 to $50 meter runs at 2-tenths of a percent. That's what AP's call a $5 meter. Every $5 in action puts one penny in the meter, so $500 in action to move the meter $1. The decimal is .002. It takes $2500 in action to move it from $40 to $45 ($2500 X .002 = $5). Then we divide the average hit by the total action:

    45/2500 = 1.8%

    At $49.20 the meter would represent 24.8% payback. From that entry point the average hit would be $49.60. That would be 40 cents meter rise:

    $500 X .40% = a $200 wager.

    $49.60/200 = 24.8%

    Thats the kind of number you need to have an edge in this game. Ruby Star is the type of game where advantage plays are few and far between no matter which meter it is.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #14
    Someone asked me once about these type of games: what is the number you start at?? I told him I think you have to be high 99, like 99.50. He bocked at me saying that he couldn't believe that it would take that kind of a number for me to get in action. I told him that this is what the math guys say in the real world and online. They say these type of games, the numbers have to be really high and for the most part they are not playable. When I started the Ruby Star Thread I made it clear that I started that game at a disadvantage. I figured that much. but now it is confirmed.

    Thanks for taking the time to do the Math MC! This is why I usually do not even bother with these games but it is good to know the formula now and that it is all about meter movement.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The Ruby Star $40 to $50 meter runs at 2-tenths of a percent. That's what AP's call a $5 meter. Every $5 in action puts one penny in the meter, so $500 in action to move the meter $1. The decimal is .002. It takes $2500 in action to move it from $40 to $45 ($2500 X .002 = $5). Then we divide the average hit by the total action:

    45/2500 = 1.8%

    At $49.20 the meter would represent 24.8% payback. From that entry point the average hit would be $49.60. That would be 40 cents meter rise:

    $500 X .40% = a $200 wager.

    $49.60/200 = 24.8%

    Thats the kind of number you need to have an edge in this game. Ruby Star is the type of game where advantage plays are few and far between no matter which meter it is.
    If people can't make money at the casino based on the platinum information you and Mission have just given in this thread then they shouldn't step foot in any casino.

  16. #16
    The Konami 500/50 must hits are in lots of casinos across the country. The typical machine will have a .25% meter on the Major and .75% meter on the Mini. The meters really don't represent much of the payback.

    For the Major a .25% meter means $400 in action to move the meter $1. Average hit is halfway from $250 to $500 or $375. That would be $125 meter movement.

    125 X 400 = $50000
    375/50000 = .75%

    For the Mini a .75% meter means $133.3333 in action to move the meter $1. Average hit is halfway from $25 to $50 or $37.50. That's $12.50 in meter movement.

    12.50 X 133.3333 = $1667
    37.5/ 1667 = 2.25%

    So the meters represent just 3% of the payback. These games are probably somewhere in the high eighties percentagewise. But I still figure at least a 20% drain.

    On the Major, with an entry point of $490 the average hit would be $495. The average wager would be $2000 (5 X 400).

    495/2000 = 24.75%

    So you would have a play worth at least 104.75% and may be worth 110%.

    On the Mini, with an entry point of $47 the average hit would be $48.50. The average wager would be $200 (133.3333 X 1.5).

    48.50/ 200 = 24.25%.

    So you would have a play worth at least 104.25% and it may be worth 109%.

    When playing for one meter you do have some equity in hitting the other meter in the process.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?
    Thanks, TP
    I'm not sure I understand the question. Do you mean in terms of how many of them there are compared to machines with just two meters? The only thing I can really say is that it doesn't seem like I get many plays on the ones with four meters, but there are also fewer of them compared to others, so that could be why.

    In terms of playing them, some people look at combinations of meters, but that's not a sufficient edge for me. Either one meter is good by itself or it is not, as far as I'm concerned. If someone wants to split two (or more) meters for an overall 1% edge, then he can have it.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?Thanks, TP
    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    Sorry Mickey (the question you answered is very helpful also), what I meant was, for a given meter, can the amount of coin-in required to move a meter some unit (like a penny) change depending on the current value of the meter ? And, if so, how common is this compared to machines where the coin-in to move the meter a penny never changes ? So say a $100 meter "must hit" is currently at $80 and requires $1.50 coin-in to move it a penny, but higher up at $95.00 it now requires $2 to move the meter a penny (and if it has more than one meter are the meters all non-constant, all constant or mixed). I was hoping the percentage of machines with non-constant meters was small.
    Thanks Mickey, TP.
    I echo MickeyCrimm's sentiments that I have never seen that happen.

    The closest thing I have seen is that some WMS machine have a meter move based on a percentage of the amount won on a spin rather than a percentage of the amount bet. However, the percentage of the win that contributes to the meter does not change depending on where the meter is at.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Another thing about must hit plays. These are not games where when you find a close number you eke out a small win everytime. Say you figure a 10% edge on an average $300 wager. You've got $30 in equity. Through a few dozen plays you might average that. But from play to play you will experience some insane variance. These games are designed with high variance. You might experience a 50 or 60% drain on the action, therefore booking a loss, or experience 50 or 100% positive variance, therefore booking a nice win.

    I consider the equity in the meter to be the juice.
    I agree with this 100%.

    Another thing to keep in mind for some people (myself included) is bankroll considerations. If you're talking about a must-hit in the thousands of dollars, in fact, let me give an example:

    Denomination: $0.01
    Meter Move: $0.01/$6.00
    Must Hit By: $5,000
    Meter At $4920.00

    Expected Meter Moves: 4,000

    Expected Coin-In: $24,000

    Expected Reel Hold: .2 (20%)

    Expected Loss on Reels: $4,800

    Expected Overall Profit: $4960-$4800 = $160

    BREAKDOWN:

    Here you have a play that seems good enough, and for some well-bankrolled people it is, but there are a number of factors you have to consider:

    1.) Reducing Variance:

    -Let's say that you want to reduce your Variance on this play because of bankroll concerns. This particular example machine will let you bet as low as $0.40, however, you are expected to have to put $24,000 coin-in in order to hit the must-hit. That means that betting this amount you are expected to have to make 60,000 spins which, at 800 SPH, should take about 75 hours of your time making this a $2/hour play. It could take twice that long if you have to run the bad boy all the way.

    Even if you are well-bankrolled and can swing the Variance with a $4.00 Max Bet, you're still looking at an expected 7.5 hours time on machine which reduces your expected profit to $21.33/hour, which isn't bad, but it's probably not great money for you if you have the bankroll to handle betting $4.00/spin in the first place on something like this.

    There are other factors (that all involve playing with a players card-I say no more) that can improve this play, but it's for each individual person to decide if it is worth the time and the risk.

    2.) VARIANCE STILL APPLIES:

    Hypothetically, let's say that you do decide to grind this bad boy out, you're probably playing with a partner considering this can take literal days, at a grind it out coin-in rate. You are betting the minimum and have eliminated the Variance on the reels to the best extent that you can, but it doesn't change the Variance on the meter, which is still substantial.

    Let's say that the meter goes 3/4ths of the way to the must-hit point. Instead of $24,000 coin-in you are now having to do $36,000 coin-in, so you're looking at $36,000*.2 = $7,200 in expected loss on the reels by my reckoning. Granted, it's probably a little less than that, but I've played a few of these (not from this number) to the tune of tens of thousands of dollars...perhaps as much as $100,000...coin-in and have enough of a sample to say 82%-83% is about where we're at on this bad reels.

    Anyway, if you see a play with this kind of thin profit margin relative to coin-in:

    160/24000 = 0.667% (Absent Other Factors)

    And you are betting $0.40/spin and it goes 3/4ths of the way...you WILL NOT PROFIT. There is no, "If," you will not.

    You will sit on this machine (or you and a partner[s]) for days and you WILL lose anywhere from $1,500-$3,000 overall. If the meter goes close to all the way, you will lose $4,000 overall if you run reasonably well, but you'll probably lose slightly more than that.

    Max betting increases the reel Variance such that catching a 500x bonus might be enough to, "Swing," your actual results to profitability. The flip side of that coin is that you can have results that would have been profitable at a $0.40 bet (based on where the meter hits) that are losing results on the big bet. Let's say you bet $4.00 and pop it after 4,000 spins:

    Meter At: $4,920
    Coin-In: $16,000
    Meter Hit At: $4,946.67

    Here's the thing, you could very easily run 60% on 4,000 spins on reels. Trust me, I've done it, several times. It doesn't even fucking shock me anymore. If that happens on $16,000 coin in and it pops at $4946.67 (which is early) you've got yourself a $1,453.33 loser. Nice.

    The long and short of it is that it's not enough just to have a good play, you have to practice discretion beyond that by considering the following factors if they are relevant to you:

    -How much am I making per hour?
    -How much could I lose if this bad boy runs all the way and do I have the bankroll if that happens?
    -I'm not going to be able to sit here for days, can I get help? (KNOW you have help before taking even one spin!!!)

    3.) Competition:

    Anyway, the bitch about the really big ones is competition, and to some extent, even the ones in the hundreds.

    The problem is that as soon as that bad boy hits $4,880 you're going to have people checking it once (if not more) per day to see how much it has moved and deciding if they want to play it. By the time a machine such as the example machine gets up to $4,920 you have three or four people hawking it multiple times a day, if not even MORE people than that, because now the underbankrolled ploppies are just smart (or dumb) enough to be curious.

    At $4,925, it's a virtual game of AP chicken. People are making phone calls and nobody really wants this number necessarily (may be different at different places), but somebody is probably going to take the Nestea plunge here for fear of losing it to someone else more than anything.

    The other thing is that ti absolutely sucks most of the time. Granted, you'll get those ones that go quick, but those aren't the ones you remember. The ones you remember are the ones where it is you and one or two other guys tag-teaming it (even at a higher number this is the case) for roughly 24 hours trying to remember not to drool on yourselves because of how utterly fucking bored you are and the fucking meter runs damn near all the fucking way.

    Every person who walks by you, every smell and every sound irritates you. It's like a cubicle job on fucking steroids. I really can't warn you off of this fucking mess enough. It's miserable. It sucks. It's Hell on Earth and I can't imagine a worse possible way to spend several hours if not a day or two.

    $4940 is when I start making calls on a $5,000 meter, in case you were curious.
    Last edited by Mission146; 09-06-2018 at 07:40 AM.

  20. #20
    One thing to keep in mind is that these games do not all have the same meter movement, even if it's the same game, denomination and theme.

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