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Thread: Mystery Progressives AKA "Must Hits"

  1. #101
    I found a river dragons at $489.xx and started playing. The meter was only moving at about 0.2% though!!! I’ve played a lot of these and never seen that. Still I got lucky and made $600 on it.

  2. #102
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Over at WoV, on page 3 of the AGS thread, the Wiz says he has a par sheet for the game. From the par sheet he was able to determine the amount of payback represented by the progressive meters. But there is one glaring omission in his analysis. He didn't divulge the payback of the overall game or the payback in the main game. If he has the par sheet he has that information. He has always published payback percentages but in this case he hasn't. It's probably information that he only wants his inside click to know. Someone should ask him about it.
    I'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.
    I know someone that has played off 15 RD's and everyone has run him above 4990. But I've also seen two pics where it hit in the low 4900's.
    A hustler showed me a pic of one that hit in the $43xx’s.

  3. #103
    I've yet to see one of these over $4900 in LV; looks like the tourists play them off early. The closest I've seen was last week at 4868, and a few days later someone had flipped it.

  4. #104
    Originally Posted by Guy Incognito View Post
    I've yet to see one of these over $4900 in LV; looks like the tourists play them off early. The closest I've seen was last week at 4868, and a few days later someone had flipped it.
    To many people are willing to take the bait in the high 4800's.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  5. #105
    Before I knew they always went to the top I played one at $487x.xx. I somehow won like $3k on the play. I think it helped that i was betting $5 and $9. Variance obviously plays a larger role when betting more. Now that I have more experience with them I shutter at the thought of playing them that low. I actually pass on $4910 a few weeks back because the $500 was near reset and wouldn’t hit before the $5k.

  6. #106
    Here's some pics of the play I did a couple days ago.
    Attached Images Attached Images   
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #107
    Is that $4994 it hit at?
    FraudJ's word is worth less than the prop cash in Singer's safe...RIP

  8. #108
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Is that $4994 it hit at?
    Yep. I had $5000 in the machine with $834 in credits left when I hit it so made $829. I figured to get in for about that much when I started the play. The drain was 14.43%. The place is good for comped rooms and freeplay so I took it a little lower than I normally would.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #109
    Mickey how often have you seeen them hit before $4990?
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #110
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Mickey how often have you seeen them hit before $4990?
    I've personally never seen it but I'm networked with a lot of guys so every once in a while we get a report of one hitting early. Every coin in is eligible but it's not equally weighted. It's heavily weighted to the top. You can't count on it hitting early. You have to strategize it like it's going to run to 4995.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #111
    Sometimes I'm at the store searching, give up and ask the clerk where is this item? Usually the answer is-Right in front of you! Anyhow.

    What can I learn from these two pics? Why did you show both? How does the total come about. How many ways did you win? What is the bet, what is the demon. It's clear as mud but I'm curious. Thanks.

    Signed, Lost in Montana.

  12. #112
    I miraculously managed to find one of these (485/500) in Las Vegas, at a store that's notoriously vulture-infested, no less. Came off at around 497, which I assume is around the average. I still haven't found a 5000 play (closest was 4898).

  13. #113
    Originally Posted by pahrump pete View Post
    Sometimes I'm at the store searching, give up and ask the clerk where is this item? Usually the answer is-Right in front of you! Anyhow.

    What can I learn from these two pics? Why did you show both? How does the total come about. How many ways did you win? What is the bet, what is the demon. It's clear as mud but I'm curious. Thanks.

    Signed, Lost in Montana.
    Here's my stats for the play:

    Start: $4917.56
    Finish: $4994.58
    Wager: $28,882
    Cost: $4166
    Drain: 14.43%
    Net Win/Loss: +$829 and comp/freeplay

    How I determined the total wager:

    The meter moves at .002666666%.
    Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.75.
    That means it takes a $3.75 wager to move the meter 1 cent.
    So every $375 in action moves the meter $1.
    I moved the meter from 4917.58 to 4994.56.
    Thats a difference of $77.02.
    77.02 X 375 means a total wager of $28,882

    I had $5000 in the machine with $834 in credits left when it hit. That's how I determined that the profit was $829.

    For the drain percentage I just divide the $4166 cost by the total wager, $28,882 to get 14.43%.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #114
    [QUOTE=mickeycrimm;87506]
    Originally Posted by pahrump pete View Post
    Sometimes I'm at the store searching, give up and ask the clerk where is this item? Usually the answer is-Right in front of you! Anyhow.

    What can I learn from these two pics? Why did you show both? How does the total come about. How many ways did you win? What is the bet, what is the demon. It's clear as mud but I'm curious. Thanks.

    Signed, Lost in Montana.
    Here's my stats for the play:

    Start: $4917.56
    Finish: $4994.58
    Wager: $28,882
    Cost: $4166
    Drain: 14.43%
    Net Win/Loss: +$829 and comp/freeplay

    How I determined the total wager:

    The meter moves at .002666666%.
    Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.75.
    That means it takes a $3.75 wager to move the meter 1 cent.
    So every $375 in action moves the meter $1.
    I moved the meter from 4917.58 to 4994.56.
    Thats a difference of $77.02.
    77.02 X 375 means a total wager of $28,882


    Determining the cost is easy. I had $5000 in the machine with $834 left when it hit. So the cost was $4166.

    For the drain percentage I just divide the $4166 cost by the total wager, $28,882 to get 14.43%.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #115
    deleted. Double post.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #116
    deleted. triple post.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #117
    deleted. I don't know what the hell is going on. I keep deleting but it keeps double posting.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #118
    Ouch, that much math at one time makes my brain hurt. Seriously though, interesting stuff. I see it clearer.

    I get a sense of danger if the action generated on the bets doesn't materialize as expected. That must be the downfall. On the other hand pure icing on the cake when the action abounds, the ride is free and the payoff "must hit". Nice.

    Thanks Mickey.

  19. #119
    Got another River Dragon play on graveyard last night. Ran exceptionally well. Got dropped for just 12.47%. Made $1647, plus put $67 on the card and may get comp/FP mailers.
    Attached Images Attached Images   
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #120
    Nice one Mickey! It definitely helps to run well. Is that a place where the hold could have been set to 20-25% or were you pretty confident of the expected drain?

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