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Thread: Mystery Progressives AKA "Must Hits"

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Mission, I was wondering what you and others' feeling is for the prevalence of must hit machines with constant meter moves (for all meters on the machine in question) regardless of any other factors such as how close the meter is to the must hit etc. ?
    Thanks, TP
    I'm not sure I understand the question. Do you mean in terms of how many of them there are compared to machines with just two meters? The only thing I can really say is that it doesn't seem like I get many plays on the ones with four meters, but there are also fewer of them compared to others, so that could be why.

    In terms of playing them, some people look at combinations of meters, but that's not a sufficient edge for me. Either one meter is good by itself or it is not, as far as I'm concerned. If someone wants to split two (or more) meters for an overall 1% edge, then he can have it.
    Hi Mission, please see the clarification to my question here: https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post73013

    Thanks tp.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    If you are talking about both meters running at the same rate? The smaller meter has the better value because it has the shorter cycle.
    Sorry Mickey (the question you answered is very helpful also), what I meant was, for a given meter, can the amount of coin-in required to move a meter some unit (like a penny) change depending on the current value of the meter ? And, if so, how common is this compared to machines where the coin-in to move the meter a penny never changes ? So say a $100 meter "must hit" is currently at $80 and requires $1.50 coin-in to move it a penny, but higher up at $95.00 it now requires $2 to move the meter a penny (and if it has more than one meter are the meters all non-constant, all constant or mixed). I was hoping the percentage of machines with non-constant meters was small.
    Thanks Mickey, TP.
    I echo MickeyCrimm's sentiments that I have never seen that happen.

    The closest thing I have seen is that some WMS machine have a meter move based on a percentage of the amount won on a spin rather than a percentage of the amount bet. However, the percentage of the win that contributes to the meter does not change depending on where the meter is at.
    Thanks for the great info Mission.

  3. #23
    Does anyone know if there's an online resource that outlines the base amount for all the progressives by machine? I've started a spreadsheet, but it's not always obvious what the jackpots are seeded at, and randomly playing all of them until they reset could get expensive.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Guy Incognito View Post
    Does anyone know if there's an online resource that outlines the base amount for all the progressives by machine? I've started a spreadsheet, but it's not always obvious what the jackpots are seeded at, and randomly playing all of them until they reset could get expensive.
    On most machines you just need to look below the meters. You'll see in the screenshot that the range for the major is $250 to $500. That means the meter will reset to $250 once it's hit. Same thing for the $25 to $50 meter.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  5. #25
    Ah, I should have clarified, I wasn't talking about the must-hits, more like the ones with 4-5 jackpots (e.g. Quickhit, 88 fortunes, beer haus)

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Guy Incognito View Post
    Ah, I should have clarified, I wasn't talking about the must-hits, more like the ones with 4-5 jackpots (e.g. Quickhit, 88 fortunes, beer haus)
    I don't see an advantage to be had on those type games.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #27
    Surely there has to be a point where the mini-progressives reach a point where it's +EV? Or is that point so high/rare that it's not worth pursuing?

  8. #28
    Here is some frequencies on quick hits platinum. I did the math for fun and will play from time to time, but it's not the first thing I check by any means. Think about quick hits like an 80 cent Harley that costs twice as much to spin.

    https://www.arcade-history.com/?n=bl...etail&id=45272

  9. #29
    OK. Yeah, I forgot that the WMS must hits don't show the reset values. But we're in luck. The reset values are not critical information. All we have to know is the current value of the meter.

    As Mission pointed out, the WMS must hits are based on coin-out, not coin-in like Konami. Both meters on these WMS machines, at least the ones I'm familiar with, move one penny for every $1.6666 in payouts. If you hit a $10 payout both meters will advance 6 cents. Hit a $5 payout and both meters will move 3 cents. The meters also advance on any collection of small hits. Hit for 50 cents on one spin then 60 cents on another then 60 cents on another and the meter will move one penny. It equates to .6%.

    However, we have to discount that because it's coin out. I use 80% payback to do this. I figure the line pays are worth 80% of the payback. So 80% of .6% is .48%. So it takes, on average, $2.0833 coin-in to move the meter one penny.

    I'm looking for a meter that has a current value of at least 25%. Let's look at the Major that must hit by $500. It takes on average $208.33 coin-in to move the meter $1. At an entry point of $482 the average meter hit would be $491. That's $9 in meter movement:

    9 X 208.3333 = $1875 coin-in
    491/1875 = 26.2%

    My entry point on the WMS $500 meters is actually $481.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    OK. Yeah, I forgot that the WMS must hits don't show the reset values. But we're in luck. The reset values are not critical information. All we have to know is the current value of the meter.

    As Mission pointed out, the WMS must hits are based on coin-out, not coin-in like Konami. Both meters on these WMS machines, at least the ones I'm familiar with, move one penny for every $1.6666 in payouts. If you hit a $10 payout both meters will advance 6 cents. Hit a $5 payout and both meters will move 3 cents. The meters also advance on any collection of small hits. Hit for 50 cents on one spin then 60 cents on another then 60 cents on another and the meter will move one penny. It equates to .6%.

    However, we have to discount that because it's coin out. I use 80% payback to do this. I figure the line pays are worth 80% of the payback. So 80% of .6% is .48%. So it takes, on average, $2.0833 coin-in to move the meter one penny.

    I'm looking for a meter that has a current value of at least 25%. Let's look at the Major that must hit by $500. It takes on average $208.33 coin-in to move the meter $1. At an entry point of $482 the average meter hit would be $491. That's $9 in meter movement:

    9 X 208.3333 = $1875 coin-in
    491/1875 = 26.2%

    My entry point on the WMS $500 meters is actually $481.
    Great stuff Mickey, thanks.

  11. #31
    This isn't a must hit, but I'm trying to get a feel for what constitutes a good entry point. The minor was about 10x on this one, I played for a couple of hours last night (someone else hit the major, it was over 1k):

    Name:  IMG_20180910_095253~2.jpg
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  12. #32
    Originally Posted by Guy Incognito View Post
    This isn't a must hit, but I'm trying to get a feel for what constitutes a good entry point. The minor was about 10x on this one, I played for a couple of hours last night (someone else hit the major, it was over 1k):

    Name:  IMG_20180910_095253~2.jpg
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    This game has got a lot of people interested. There are some variants called Silver 7's or something like that. I made a thousand spins tracking how often the stacked red 7's and the stacked yellow 7's land in the window. I ballparked the red 7's frequency at 18,000 and the yellow's at 22,000. Red 7's meter runs at 1.2% on most machines, yellow 7's, 1%. Red meter starts at $250, yellow $50.

    Miinimum bet is $1.35 to qualify for meter. The progressives probably represent only 3% of the payback and that's with meter speed included. With both meters at about $1500 it might be in positive territory.

    I won't play the game but I think there is some value there for recreational players. Playing with high meters definitely beats playing a non-progressive slot game.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #33
    I only wish you guys had a formula for video poker progressives! At Red Rock right now the $1 reversible sequential royal games are north of $186,000. $5/play. Don't ask me what the meter is, I don't play it. Bonus is 7/5.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I only wish you guys had a formula for video poker progressives! At Red Rock right now the $1 reversible sequential royal games are north of $186,000. $5/play. Don't ask me what the meter is, I don't play it. Bonus is 7/5.
    Alan, I think we've gone over this before.

    1. Bet is $5
    2. Sequential royal odds are 40,234 X 60 = 2,414,040
    3. $186, 000 = 37,200 betting units
    4. 37200/2414040 = 1.541%
    5. 7/5 Bonus Poker =98.01%
    6. Total = 99.55%

    Alan, you shouldn't waste your time and money on this. Professional teams don't even go after sequential royals even if they are positive. When are you going to get a payday?

    Average cost to produce a reversible sequential royal at $1 7/5 Bonus Poker:

    2,414,040 X $5 X 2% = $241,404
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #35
    That's my point mickeycrimm. Unlike slots with a must hit there is no telling when or even if the reversible royal sequential will hit.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That's my point mickeycrimm. Unlike slots with a must hit there is no telling when or even if the reversible royal sequential will hit.
    I've never seen a progressive that doesn't hit. Even Megabucks at 50,000,000 to 1 hits.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I ballparked the red 7's frequency at 18,000 and the yellow's at 22,000.
    The major hits more often than the minor? I didn't think that was ever the case.

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by Guy Incognito View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I ballparked the red 7's frequency at 18,000 and the yellow's at 22,000.
    The major hits more often than the minor? I didn't think that was ever the case.
    IGT is full of tricks to mislead gamblers. This is not the only example.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That's my point mickeycrimm. Unlike slots with a must hit there is no telling when or even if the reversible royal sequential will hit.
    I've never seen a progressive that doesn't hit. Even Megabucks at 50,000,000 to 1 hits.
    Several times there have been progressives at Rincon that haven't hit and the casino shut down those machines and moved the jackpots to video poker progressives.

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That's my point mickeycrimm. Unlike slots with a must hit there is no telling when or even if the reversible royal sequential will hit.
    I've never seen a progressive that doesn't hit. Even Megabucks at 50,000,000 to 1 hits.
    Several times there have been progressives at Rincon that haven't hit and the casino shut down those machines and moved the jackpots to video poker progressives.
    If they don't shut those machines down the progressive it going to hit. It's just a matter of time. This is so comical. I love ya, dude but you've got some serious malfunction of the brain.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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