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Thread: Mystery Progressives AKA "Must Hits"

  1. #61
    Well tableplay I guess the lesson for novice slot players chasing progressives that if they play at Rincon they should also be ready to play video poker.

  2. #62
    There are some johnny come lately mystery progressives in the casinos now. They go by the names, River Dragons, Forest Dragons, Fire Wolf and Wolf Queen. These are the ones I've seen. There may be other variants. They are made by a company called American Gaming Systems (AGS). This company has mostly manufactured Class II machines for Indian Casinos.

    What is known about these games, by the AP's that play them, is the must hit progressives are not so random. They always run to the top. The $500 meter starts at $200 and almost always runs above $490. I say almost because sometimes there is an outlier that hits in the high $480's. The $5000 meter starts at $2000 and always runs above $4990. I know of no cases where it's been hit below $4990.

    I consider these games to be immoral because most of the poor ploppies that play these games probably think they have a chance to hit the progressives on every spin. But a guy has to make a buck so I've been studying these games. And I've put down 5 plays on the $500 meter so far. No play yet on the $5000 meter but I've been watching a machine all week that's moving in close. We'll see what happens.

    These games have given rise to a new term in the AP community which I recently picked up on. Instead of "Must Hits" they are called "Must Go To's."

    Anyways, here's what these games look like:
    Attached Images Attached Images    
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 09-14-2018 at 12:52 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #63
    So far I've tested about a dozen of the Dragon machines for meter speed. On all of them the $5000 meter runs at .26666%. This equates to $3.75 to flip the meter one penny or $375 to move the meter $1.

    So far on the $500 meter I've found both .375% and .4%. For the .375% meter it's $2.6666 to flip it a penny or $266.6666 to move the meter $1. With the .4% meter it takes $2.50 to move it one penny and $250 to move it $1.

    All five of my plays have been on the .4 Meter. With the meter starting at $200 and the average hit being $495 it takes $73,750 in action to move the meter to that point. So this meter is worth only .67% of the payback.

    495/73750 = .67%

    For the 5K meter it takes $1,123,125 in action to move the meter to $4995.

    4995/1123125 = .444741%

    So the meters represent only 1.1% of the overall payback. That means the payback in the main game should be much higher than 80%.

    I have a friend that was on a dragon $5000 play in Deadwood and we were texting back and forth when he was on it. He jumped in at $4922 and it ran him to 4992. That's $26,250 in action. He made $2300 on the play. That means he got dropped for $2708 on the play.

    2708/26250 = 10.3%. That's running pretty good.

    Someone else posted up on twitter that they jumped in at $4880 and it ran him to 4990. He lost $122. That means he got dropped for $5112. Total action would be $41250. That's a drop of:

    5112/41250 = 12.39%.

    However, I've run 14K in action on my $500 plays and got dropped for 18%. So I'm confident that the drop is somewhere between 10 and 18%. Probably closer to 10% than 18%.

    Another thing about these machines is the speed stop works and it works super fast. Betting is in increments of 88 cents. Max bet is $8.80. At the 88 level it's easy to run $7 an hour in the $500 meter. To be profitable you need an entry point of $485 or higher. So we are talking just a two hour play at minimum bet, one hour at the $1.76 level.

    With the $5000 meter this is how much meter movement you can get PER HOUR according to the bet level:

    88 = $4.66
    1.76 = $9.33
    2.64 = $13.98
    3.52 = $18.64
    4.40 = $23.30
    5.28 = $27.96
    6.16 = $32.62
    7.04 = $37.28
    7.92 = $41.94
    8.80 = $46.66

    So you can spin off a 5K play quickly if you want to.

    I'm pretty much not interested in spinning off anything below $4930 at this point until I get a better handle on the drop. And that will take a much bigger sample space than I have.

    PS: Always remember to verify your meter speed on any Mystery Progressive you play.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 09-14-2018 at 03:37 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #64
    As always, Thanks Mck for doing the research!

  5. #65
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    So far I've tested about a dozen of the Dragon machines for meter speed. On all of them the $5000 meter runs at .26666%. This equates to $3.75 to flip the meter one penny or $375 to move the meter $1.

    So far on the $500 meter I've found both .375% and .4%. For the .375% meter it's $2.6666 to flip it a penny or $266.6666 to move the meter $1. With the .4% meter it takes $2.50 to move it one penny and $250 to move it $1.

    All five of my plays have been on the .4 Meter. With the meter starting at $200 and the average hit being $495 it takes $73,750 in action to move the meter to that point. So this meter is worth only .67% of the payback.

    495/73750 = .67%

    For the 5K meter it takes $1,123,125 in action to move the meter to $4995.

    4995/1123125 = .444741%

    So the meters represent only 1.1% of the overall payback. That means the payback in the main game should be much higher than 80%.

    I have a friend that was on a dragon $5000 play in Deadwood and we were texting back and forth when he was on it. He jumped in at $4922 and it ran him to 4992. That's $26,250 in action. He made $2300 on the play. That means he got dropped for $2708 on the play.

    2708/26250 = 10.3%. That's running pretty good.

    Someone else posted up on twitter that they jumped in at $4880 and it ran him to 4990. He lost $122. That means he got dropped for $5112. Total action would be $41250. That's a drop of:

    5112/41250 = 12.39%.

    However, I've run 14K in action on my $500 plays and got dropped for 18%. So I'm confident that the drop is somewhere between 10 and 18%. Probably closer to 10% than 18%.

    Another thing about these machines is the speed stop works and it works super fast. Betting is in increments of 88 cents. Max bet is $8.80. At the 88 level it's easy to run $7 an hour in the $500 meter. To be profitable you need an entry point of $485 or higher. So we are talking just a two hour play at minimum bet, one hour at the $1.76 level.

    With the $5000 meter this is how much meter movement you can get PER HOUR according to the bet level:

    88 = $4.66
    1.76 = $9.33
    2.64 = $13.98
    3.52 = $18.64
    4.40 = $23.30
    5.28 = $27.96
    6.16 = $32.62
    7.04 = $37.28
    7.92 = $41.94
    8.80 = $46.66

    So you can spin off a 5K play quickly if you want to.

    I'm pretty much not interested in spinning off anything below $4930 at this point until I get a better handle on the drop. And that will take a much bigger sample space than I have.

    PS: Always remember to verify your meter speed on any Mystery Progressive you play.
    Excellent stuff Mickey, thanks.

  6. #66
    I've learned so much from mickeycrimm that it's ridiculous.

  7. #67
    Damn, thank you. While I head out to Vegas in six days, I might not see any of these machines, as I usually stick to VP, I will keep my eyes open. Again, thank you very much. These are the threads I love.

  8. #68
    MC is a fine teacher.

  9. #69
    Here's a picture that Barney's friend the LID found on the interwebs of an an interesting River Dragons screen that appears to be on topic with respect to this thread:
    Name:  river_dragons_recall_menu.jpg
Views: 1031
Size:  133.2 KB
    Last edited by tableplay; 09-15-2018 at 02:37 AM.

  10. #70
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    As always, Thanks Mck for doing the research!
    This site isn't such a Shithole as some may or may not think.
    Plenty of decent threads to get some information on how to make some money and free food.
    Of course you might have to sift through some garbage to find some food but IMO I would rather have it that way compared to the Fairy Tale Land of WoV.

  11. #71
    I'm on a 5K play right now. Started at $4931. Up to 4973 and $2850 stuck.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #72
    Jumped on the Fire Wolf at $4931 at 6:35 this morning. The number in the $500 meter meant it was going to come off too.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #73
    Completed the play at 11:20 AM. That's 4 hours 45 minutes. Included restrooms breaks. I'm a coffee junkie so restroom breaks are pretty regular for me. When I said they run to the top I wasn't lying.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #74
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Keep plugging away mickey, unless work, family, life or friend issues get in your way. We all know you'll hit it--every anonymous poster always does....as long as they don't have to put up a picture of it along with the W2G.
    !
    Rob, you are so predictable. The only thing I couldn't predict was which one, you or belly, would jump in this thread first as soon as said I was on a 5K play, and start the "prove it, asshole" routine.

    Looka heah, Massah Rob!!! Looka heah!!! Cain't possable be true, cain't it? If it be true, Massah Rob yo' hole world fall apart.

    Edit: Had to take the photo down and black it out some more.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 09-15-2018 at 12:12 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #75
    Remove or edit it now!! You can read through the blackout.

  16. #76
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Remove or edit it now!! You can read through the blackout.
    Thanks, jbjb.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #77
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Remove or edit it now!! You can read through the blackout.
    Thanks, jbjb.
    You're welcome.

  18. #78
    I netted $1221 on the play plus $51 on the card.

    Total Wager.....$25,613

    The $500 meter came off at $494. I have to add that to the drop/drain ($3779) to get the payback percentage for the regular games.

    Drop/Drain percentage.....4273/25613 = 16.68%

    Something happened that I didn't expect. The 5K meter reset to $4000. That's a good thing. It means a lot less action for a play to develop on the Fire Wolf's compared to the others.

    Without the $494 hit I would have made only $778 on the play.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 09-15-2018 at 12:40 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #79
    I've requested that Rob be banned from this and the harley thread and his posts removed from them.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #80
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I've requested that Rob be banned from this and the harley thread and his posts removed from them.
    Done.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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