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Thread: Blackjack question?

  1. #1
    I have my own answer. But sometimes I like to get opinions from other APs. Why is the 16vs9 in the ill 18 but not the 14 vs 10?

    The frequency of occurance for large bet plays is about 10 to 1 in favor of 14 vs 10.

  2. #2
    It`s not in the I18, but it`s in the Fab 4, which is where all the surrenders are grouped. I`m thinking you have something else in mind for why you mentioned it like that though?

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    It`s not in the I18, but it`s in the Fab 4, which is where all the surrenders are grouped. I`m thinking you have something else in mind for why you mentioned it like that though?
    My research indicates 14vs10 is a high value play. Perhaps in the top 5 in terms of money movers. For instance, over the course of 12,000 hands 16vs9 occurred only twice where my decision to hit or stand made a difference on large bets of TC 2.5 or higher. 1 hit and 1 stand. But there were 9 decisions on 14vs10 resulting in 3 hits and 6 stands.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post
    It`s not in the I18, but it`s in the Fab 4, which is where all the surrenders are grouped. I`m thinking you have something else in mind for why you mentioned it like that though?
    My research indicates 14vs10 is a high value play. Perhaps in the top 5 in terms of money movers. For instance, over the course of 12,000 hands 16vs9 occurred only twice where my decision to hit or stand made a difference on large bets of TC 2.5 or higher. 1 hit and 1 stand. But there were 9 decisions on 14vs10 resulting in 3 hits and 6 stands.
    Oh ok I see. You`re not talking about surrendering; you`re talking about hitting or standing. That`s an interesting difference in single deck vs. any other amount of decks in regards to the 14 vs. 10 play. I`m sure there`s some index number for standing with any other amount of decks, but it`s so astronomically high (at least with most simple counting systems) that I`ve never seen it before since it wouldn`t be as valuable.

  5. #5
    Thanks. That helps.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Thanks. That helps.
    No problem. Yeah, I remember glancing through a some single deck indices one time just to see what the differences might be, and I think that was the first one that stuck out to me.

  7. #7
    I don't see the point in splitting most hands as basic strategys suggests in a pitch game played straight up NO DAS. For one thing, the best a player can do is win two hands. There is no chance for a double or a blackjack. However, playing the hand "as is" affords the opportunity to get a blackjack or double on the next hand. Furthermore, eating cards could force a shuffle and lose the opportunity on an upcoming high TC large bet hand.

  8. #8
    I don't play any single deck. I play double deck very sparingly as I believe in most cases Double deck games (in Vegas) are counter traps and/or "hawked" closely and are counterproductive to achieving longevity, which continues to be my top priority.

    BUT, when I do play double deck, I am very conscious of plays that eat cards, when there is a high count, where my larger bets are out. Plays that are very close, meaning close to the index number for making such a play....I consider which play "eats" less cards. A good example would be 4,4 vs dealer 6. This is a split (assuming DaS). But if you split, which you are doing partially hoping to draw a small card for a double down opportunity, you could end up drawing 3 or 4 cards total. But if you double down instead of split, you are only drawing (or eating 1 card).

    Sure the split and potential double down that you are hoping for, appears to be the mathematical better play....but it is close enough that saving 3 cards, which could be a whole extra round with my max bet out, is well worth giving up a few cents of that "close play".

  9. #9
    Thanks for your input KJ. That's what I'm working on now - the strength or closeness of a play. As you said, sometimes I get around that 23rd or 24th card. Then a split takes 4 smalls out of the deck and I'm watching a TC 4 getting shuffled away. Or you get a dealer giving 6 or 7 rounds but they consider a split as a round.

    From what I can tell so far, in my research, is splitting Aces and 88vs5,6 are the strongest plays. 99vs3-8 are great large bet splits. IYO, Only a handful of plays makes dollars and "sense"?

  10. #10
    Moses, the illustrious 18 uses Hi-Lo. Hi-Lo doesn’t count the 7, afaik there is no index to stand vs 10 with Hi-Lo due to this inefficiency. If there’s no index for it where would you expect it to be.

  11. #11
    Moses, the index for standing on 14 vs 10 with the Halves count in one deck blackjack is very high. It is listed in Wong's Professional Blackjack Appendix B as 11 and as far as I'm concerned it is so high that it is not worth bothering with. Now 7, 7, vs 10 is a different story and the basic strategy play is to stand.

  12. #12
    It seems these number will move as tag values change. Giving the 7 a full point defiantely has a profound difference in SCORE in the single deck game.

    I drew it out to $30k hands which is about 6 months of play for me. My decision came into play 20 times. The results were 5 wins by hitting and 15 wins by standing. The was at TC 2.5 rounded. At least 60% and up high cards remaining vs 40% low cards. For example, I have 14vs10 - I hit and get a 7 to get 21. Dealer has a 6 in the hole. My decision didn't come into play. Either way I win. OR I hit and get a 5, my decision didn't matter. Either way, I lose.

    On 14,15,16vs7,8,9 my decision only came up 16 times at a high TC or 67% high cards remaining to 33% low cards. Hitting resulted in 4 wins and a tie while standing represented 11 wins.

    Now in splitting there is a point in the game (with no DAS) where one is simly throwing good money after bad. I'm not sure exactly where that point is just yet. But I will figure it out.

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