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Thread: Coins to Paper Currency?

  1. #141
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    The expected value of $40 of free play in 9/6 Jacks or Better is what?
    I did my math wrong... it's more EV than not. That is really all that matters.

  2. #142
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Unfortunately Rob just made another of his ridiculous posts.

    Back to the issue: yes it's a smart play to keep getting a 10% bonus or a 20% bonus on every bet you make.

    The caveats are you understand that there is no guarantee in a casino, that your money is at risk, and that's your money and not the casino's money you are initially betting.

    At issue here are the definitions of words.

    Edited to add:

    Look up the definition of "expected" and it says likely to happen. I wish you would say "LV" instead of "EV" because it's more realistic.
    Would "average return" sound better?
    Ask five of your friends this question:

    Would you rather have:

    1. An average return of $100
    2. An expected return of $100
    3. A likely return of $100

    My guess is everyone will say an average return because it's the most positive language. Second choice would be expected return. Last choice would be likely.

    But... average return is completely false.

    And while "expected" and "likely" have the same meaning, "expected" is a stronger, more positive word.

    Try it.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  3. #143
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    I'll gladly buy freeplay at 11 for 10 all day long. Sell me a million dollars worth. Please.
    You don't know how dumb you sound. Must be the residual from your return flight back from Geriatric Park.

    What this promo means is that the sucker AP's will turn their real cash in for theoretical bucks. Why do you think they didn't just give you $40 FP for turning coin into paper? BECAUSE IT'S THEIR WAY OF GETTING YOU PEOPLE IN THERE. And they know more than anybody that these players are the very last in capability of running the FP thru once, and then leaving. Besides, whether the machine is 96% or 104%, not even playing one penny at a time will guarantee anyone getting their $400 back out of it.

    Dumbest thing I've ever heard--giving casinos your money so they can throw a handful of phantom bucks back at you.
    No one has to call you stupid. You show how stupid you are with every post like this.
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  4. #144
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Unfortunately Rob just made another of his ridiculous posts.

    Back to the issue: yes it's a smart play to keep getting a 10% bonus or a 20% bonus on every bet you make.

    The caveats are you understand that there is no guarantee in a casino, that your money is at risk, and that's your money and not the casino's money you are initially betting.

    At issue here are the definitions of words.

    Edited to add:

    Look up the definition of "expected" and it says likely to happen. I wish you would say "LV" instead of "EV" because it's more realistic.
    Risk can be managed. Just ask the boys in risk management. Alan, you suck at risk management.
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  5. #145
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Unfortunately Rob just made another of his ridiculous posts.

    Back to the issue: yes it's a smart play to keep getting a 10% bonus or a 20% bonus on every bet you make.

    The caveats are you understand that there is no guarantee in a casino, that your money is at risk, and that's your money and not the casino's money you are initially betting.

    At issue here are the definitions of words.

    Edited to add:

    Look up the definition of "expected" and it says likely to happen. I wish you would say "LV" instead of "EV" because it's more realistic.
    Would "average return" sound better?
    Ask five of your friends this question:

    Would you rather have:

    1. An average return of $100
    2. An expected return of $100
    3. A likely return of $100

    My guess is everyone will say an average return because it's the most positive language. Second choice would be expected return. Last choice would be likely.

    But... average return is completely false.

    And while "expected" and "likely" have the same meaning, "expected" is a stronger, more positive word.

    Try it.
    The "expected return" on $40 of freeplay at 9/6 Jacks is $39.816. The "average return" is $39.816. Both terms mean the same thing.

    BTW, there was a movement to get rid of the term "expected value" and replace it with "expected return."
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  6. #146
    Lol, now Alan is trying to play word games and saying we should call it "likely value" instead of "expected value".


    Alan has already stated that getting a 10% or 20% bonus on your deposit isn't a +EV play. That's all that needs to be said to understand, with absolutely zero doubt, the man is mentally retarded. No amount of calculations, math, logic, or anything else can change this poor man's (pun intended) mind.

    Alan, which special needs charity should I send money to on your behalf? Which one has served you the best in your opinion, or in your caretaker's opinion?
    #FreeTyde

  7. #147
    Mickeycrimm you're wrong about average return meaning the same thing as expected return but I can't and won't get into a twenty page debate over it. I had an easier time getting the Bureau of Labor Statics to change the way the Unemployment Report and the Consumer Price Index are compiled and reported.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  8. #148
    RS__ I define +EV differently than you and the others. You and the others use it so loosely it doesn't matter if you win or lose. That's hilarious. It's also sick.

    Somewhere along the way all of you casino math geniuses got bamboozled.

    It's not about +EV but it is about actual profit and control of your money. I'm tired of the debate. I give up. Use whatever terminology you want.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  9. #149
    Originally Posted by SLaPiNFuNK View Post
    I've heard stories of some of you figuring taking rolls of toilet paper and shampoo as +EV plays... I find it hard to believe that some of you haven't already done this for the extra plays this gives you...

    Now if this casino that offers this has really poor return games I don't imagine most of you step in the door.

    The games were around 99%. when I did it.

  10. #150
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    I'll gladly buy freeplay at 11 for 10 all day long. Sell me a million dollars worth. Please.
    You don't know how dumb you sound. Must be the residual from your return flight back from Geriatric Park.

    What this promo means is that the sucker AP's will turn their real cash in for theoretical bucks. Why do you think they didn't just give you $40 FP for turning coin into paper? BECAUSE IT'S THEIR WAY OF GETTING YOU PEOPLE IN THERE. And they know more than anybody that these players are the very last in capability of running the FP thru once, and then leaving. Besides, whether the machine is 96% or 104%, not even playing one penny at a time will guarantee anyone getting their $400 back out of it.

    Dumbest thing I've ever heard--giving casinos your money so they can throw a handful of phantom bucks back at you.

    If this worked great for Ellis Island and got people in there, why did they end the promotion?

    Simple question, casinos historically keep offering promotions they are making money off of.

    But when you don’t believe the math and play hunches, I would agree it is hard for you to see the value this promo offered. It was for us “little” people.

  11. #151
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post

    Edited to add:

    Look up the definition of "expected" and it says likely to happen. I wish you would say "LV" instead of "EV" because it's more realistic.
    Or….you could just look up the definition of "expected value".

    Why would you take one word of a phrase like that, when one word of the phrase has a different meaning than the group of words together?
    "Expected value" is a contrived phrase. Sometimes you have to take a phrase apart, piece by piece, to understand its true meaning. Is what I'm saying hogwash? No. It's what the Supreme Court does in every case it hears.

    Consider the term I came up with in the 1970s "phantom unemployment" which led to the overhaul of the unemployment statistics. And when I did the research that led to the change in the Consumer Price Index. By the way, kewlj, you weren't born yet when I won my battles with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and my articles were on the White House Reading List.

    But I'm old and not relevant now, right? And I'm a moron, right? And I'm not a trained economist, right? And I have no idea what I'm talking about, right?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  12. #152
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    RS__ I define +EV differently than you and the others. You and the others use it so loosely it doesn't matter if you win or lose. That's hilarious. It's also sick.

    Somewhere along the way all of you casino math geniuses got bamboozled.

    It's not about +EV but it is about actual profit and control of your money. I'm tired of the debate. I give up. Use whatever terminology you want.

    The longer these discussions go on, the more I'm convinced arci was correct that most of the anti-AP posts feature some kind of projection. The phrase "control of your money" is a new one by Mr. Mendelson. It dovetails into all of the commentary by Argentino and others regarding 401Ks and pensions.


    I think three things are going on here:

    1) The focus on 401Ks and pensions is a focus on another party safeguarding one's resources when one lacks the control to protect those resources when in casinos or gambling. The 401K's and pensions become a necessary part of one's life because, my God, without some entity overseeing one's money, how can one control behavior and keep that money safe?

    2) The phrase "control of your money" implies that once the money is in the machines, it's somehow no longer under one's control. That phrase tells you all you need to know about addiction and the perspective of the addict.

    3) Stop losses, win goals, soft profits, while all useful to reduce number of hands played on negative machines, are really desperate stratagems to structure and impose control ONCE THE MONEY IS IN THE MACHINES. They are artifices, rules of behavior because the people playing have difficulty simply walking away from the machines. They need rules for behavior because they aren't fully in control of their behavior.


    All of these observations tie into arci's theory that the language being used is projection to a large degree. APs don't play if the situation is negative or when the positive angle ends. They can walk away. That's what the anti-APs despise and what's at the source of this: the APs have behavioral control of themselves. That's the bottom line.

  13. #153
    Let's take #2:

    "2) The phrase "control of your money" implies that once the money is in the machines, it's somehow no longer under one's control. That phrase tells you all you need to know about addiction and the perspective of the addict."

    You tell me who controls the money when you push the play button? Is it YOU or the RNG?

    That's the point. I dare you to tell me that when you push "play" that you are in control of your money.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  14. #154
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    "Expected value" is a contrived phrase. Sometimes you have to take a phrase apart, piece by piece, to understand its true meaning. Is what I'm saying hogwash? No. It's what the Supreme Court does in every case it hears.

    Consider the term I came up with in the 1970s "phantom unemployment" which led to the overhaul of the unemployment statistics. And when I did the research that led to the change in the Consumer Price Index. By the way, kewlj, you weren't born yet when I won my battles with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and my articles were on the White House Reading List.

    But I'm old and not relevant now, right? And I'm a moron, right? And I'm not a trained economist, right? And I have no idea what I'm talking about, right?
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    RS__ I define +EV differently than you and the others. You and the others use it so loosely it doesn't matter if you win or lose. That's hilarious. It's also sick.

    Somewhere along the way all of you casino math geniuses got bamboozled.

    It's not about +EV but it is about actual profit and control of your money. I'm tired of the debate. I give up. Use whatever terminology you want.
    You can define whatever you want however you want. That doesn't make it correct. The definition of expected value is, "a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence." For more information, which you surely won't read (and if you do, will either not understand it or try to refute it), you can read about EV here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

    Here, we're talking about gambling and math. Your credentials as a journalist, economist, research in consumer price index / unemployment / bureau of labor statistics / etc. is all absolutely meaningless when it comes to gambling and/or math. Just like how someone who's really good at farming but knows nothing about economics if he says, "just print more money and give everyone a million dollars, now everyone's rich!!!!"
    #FreeTyde

  15. #155
    Here's another economics term to consider: the point of diminishing return.

    I've reached it.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  16. #156
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Here's another economics term to consider: the point of diminishing return.

    I've reached it.
    It’s like your assets, gambling chances and Net Worth Alan, good point. It’s nice to see you admit you are a broke degenerate gambler. See there is value in facing the truth Alan.

    GA classes today all over the valley, can you take the next step Alan?

    http://www.gasn.info/weekly-events

  17. #157
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    RS__ I define +EV differently than you and the others. You and the others use it so loosely it doesn't matter if you win or lose. That's hilarious. It's also sick.

    Somewhere along the way all of you casino math geniuses got bamboozled.

    It's not about +EV but it is about actual profit and control of your money. I'm tired of the debate. I give up. Use whatever terminology you want.
    WoW!!!
    The last few pages are redonkulous. I am sure that you have not given up. You can't help yourself and will continue to drone on and on with your stupidity. What's that saying, "Never go full retard"? You are exponentially retarded and keep proving so over and over again.

  18. #158
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Somewhere along the way all of you casino math geniuses got bamboozled.

    It's not about +EV but it is about actual profit and control of your money. I'm tired of the debate. I give up. Use whatever terminology you want.
    Alan, seriously....you are the casino industries best case scenario. They have wet dreams over players like you.

    You are correct that it is about actual profits and that somebody (Alan Mendelson) is being bamboozled. But your comments and thinking concerning +EV and "control of your money" is 100% wrong and backwards.

    Alan, have you ever heard the phrase "it takes money to make money"? Most (not all but most) good AP plays require some money. This is referred to as "bankroll" or "front money". Some plays require more bankroll than others. Card counting which I engage in requires significant bankroll. Most plays require much less, but most require some money (bankroll) for a successful and significant return.

    If you are looking for some kind of play or promotion that requires no bankroll or use of your own money, then you will only get these tiny little kiosk spins, where you win $5 free play, or maybe a free buffet, or god forbid, multipliers. If you want real +EV, advantage play opportunities, you need some degree of bankroll and investment.

    Here is the really sad thing about this situation. Most forums that I am on, the members don't talk about many kinds of +EV plays in any kind of detail. And when someone does, other members scream and get the discussion shut down, fearing casino personnel are reading. On this site there is no or very little fear that casino personnel are reading and some members like mickey and monet and others, are free to talk a little more specifically about different plays and angles. And we can all learn a few things...some significant, some just small tidbits.

    Even though I have made the decision to move away from machine play AP and back towards my roots of blackjack AP, I continue to learn useful things that I can and have applied for my benefit. And you should have too. You, Alan Mendelson are a prime example of someone who could learn a little from some of these discussions that could benefit you. But instead, you not only refuse to learn anything that might be beneficial, but your ego and clouded judgement against players who win, have you fighting and arguing every little thing said. It is clearly a cut off you nose (in your case BIG nose) to spite your face situation. And I am willing to bet that if you are honest (maybe your son can weigh in) you have a life long history of this kind of "spite yourself" behavior.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 10-08-2018 at 07:27 AM.

  19. #159
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post

    WoW!!!
    The last few pages are redonkulous.
    OMG! Stop MaxPen...please stop before I hurt myself laughing.

  20. #160
    Kewlj I am not in your league. Thank you. Carry on. You're a hero.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

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