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Thread: SCORE vs BC,PE,IC discussion

  1. #21
    I'd say for the vast majority of counters Hi Lo would be best.

    If you play predominantly pitch games then there is a strong argument for counts with better playing efficiency. However then it's an issue of whether the added difficulty is worth it. Anyone would agree that playing Hi Lo perfectly and effortlessly would be a lot better than struggling with a harder system.

    Angel shooter writes ^:

    Moses replies: PE has some merit. But let's not jump off a bridge over it. The game has CHANGED. The first 26 cards or 50% is primarily a crap shoot. So, for the most part, your influence or decisions making process will occur between card 27 and 33. NOW, if you start doing this hairy high school bull shit of hitting 15 vs 3 and winning the hand? Then you are not going to get to see card 27 much longer, maybe never again with that particular dealer. HI LO is NOT the answer in pitch games. I'm sorry KJ, it isn't because bet spread and bet frequency are reduced significantly in comparison to shoe games. So in order to avoid or reduce heat you will need a column count. Conventional method? Dog Shit Cake and moving the Ace on insurance decisions is the best and most practical solution according to CV Data. Perfect Insurance will add to SCORE.

    DSC from HiLO, you are dropping the 2 and adding the 7, giving the 5 a 1.5 tag and the 9 a -.5 tag. How difficult can that be?

  2. #22
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    Moses, Moses, Moses !?!? (where is the shaking head emoji?)


    I never....never, ever said hi-lo was the best count for all situations. And I have specifically stated many times, the point that you just made, that for those who play pitch games or the majority or even a substantial amount of their play is pitch game, that hi-lo, or something compatibly simple like K-O is NOT the way to go. That one of the higher level counts and/or side counts could be beneficial depending on the particular players abilities. WE are NOT in disagreement about that.

    Where we seem to be in disagreement, or not even disagreement, but see things differently, is that just like you see me as an anomaly because I seek out and play shoe games, I think you are even more of an anomaly because you play nothing but single deck. There are very, very few people that have access to single deck blackjack, real single deck blackjack....not the 6:5 crap. The location that you play in Northern Nevada is about the only place it still exists and even then it is hard (from my very limited experience there) to get any kind of meaningful money in play.

    So my comments and support of playing a simple type count like hi-lo is based on the fact that 99.9 % of players play and have access to 6 & 8 deck shoe games (some with mediocre double deck in the mix). For these 99.9% of players and I really don't think that number is an exaggeration, simplicity is the way to go. There are very diminished benefit for playing anything other than a simple count for most players.

    And those that do attempt to play shoe games with more advanced counts and this very diminishing advantage likely are seeking no additional benefit, because just the slightest increase in error rate more than offsets any small gain. Of course error rate is never accepted by proponents of higher counts, when the fact is there is error rate involved in everything. Playing a simple count approach, I make errors. A player playing the simplest of counts, which I guess would be the Ace-5 count (and has little value) makes errors despite that he/she is counting only 2 values. Everyone makes errors and the further you get away from the simplest task or method the more the error rate increases, despite what anyone may want to believe.

    One thing I do want to say about these count discussions. Some of the players that constantly participate in these discussions debates, on the pro higher count side, like T3 and several others mentioned, I have come to believe it is nothing but mental masturbation with these guys. I believe all of their play or 99% of their play takes place on the computer via computer simulations. I really believe their is very little if any real life casino play taking place, because they just seem clueless as to what a player can and can't get away with for long in an actual casino environment.

    I have no interest in the best way to play on my computer. I am interested in figuring how I can maximize profits, (while minimizing exposure) in the real life games available to me.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Moses, Moses, Moses !?!? (where is the shaking head emoji?)..
    LOL. That's funny! (where is the applause emojli?)

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I never....never, ever said hi-lo was the best count for all situations..
    KJ, KJ, KJ, I was speaking to what many others continue to post. The 2 makes very little difference in pitch. Massive changes don't necessarily need to be made. But a few minor tweaks will improve ones game considerably. But that is up to them. As you know, there are a handful of players that complain, ask hundreds of questions, and never do a damn thing to improve their game. I get tired of reading that lame crap. Even IF one (I do) knew every card played and still remaining they still have to know how to process the information. Thus there is a case to be made for tag values.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Where we seem to be in disagreement, or not even disagreement, but see things differently, is that just like you see me as an anomaly because I seek out and play shoe games, I think you are even more of an anomaly because you play nothing but single deck. There are very, very few people that have access to single deck blackjack, real single deck blackjack....not the 6:5 crap. The location that you play in Northern Nevada is about the only place it still exists and even then it is hard (from my very limited experience there) to get any kind of meaningful money in play.
    True. These casinos are full of blackjack players sitting at a 3.2 single deck table on the weekends. I guess I'm the only one who plays competitively. As for meaningful money? Yes, it can be made but you have to leave your bulldozer at home. For instance, a player averages $2k a week. The range is between the $3Ks.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    One thing I do want to say about these count discussions. Some of the players that constantly participate in these discussions debates, on the pro higher count side, like T3 and several others mentioned, I have come to believe it is nothing but mental masturbation with these guys. I believe all of their play or 99% of their play takes place on the computer via computer simulations. I really believe their is very little if any real life casino play taking place, because they just seem clueless as to what a player can and can't get away with for long in an actual casino environment..
    One can play with numbers and scenarios to get a high SCORE on a sim. The key questions are; Can they actually perform the task? And will tolerance allow it? If either answer is "no" then what difference does it make. We don't bet on SCOREs...at least in blackjack. The problem is with a T3 is he gets in players heads. It isn't so much about the count that wins the most. It's more about the count the gives you peace in the event of a loss.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I have no interest in the best way to play on my computer. I am interested in figuring how I can maximize profits, (while minimizing exposure) in the real life games available to me.
    Sims are good for count comparisons. But the sim will only do what it's told by the information put in. For example, I would never make a large bet when all Aces are exhausted. But the SIM doesn't know there is a difference. Also, in a straight up game, if I bust? GAME OVER. But the SIM finishes the dealers hand anyway. So the inconsistencies in the SIM are consistent.

    So I recommend taking any new count or change in tag values out for a test drive on Verite before taking into casino play. If someone were to switch from HiLO to Wong Halves they should play out 10k hands on Verite exactly the way the play in a casino. The most difficult part about learning a new count is forgetting the old count.
    I'm a practice nut. The game is simply an extensive of practice is what I was always taught in athletics. There is really no difference between Verite and casino play for me. Except I catch breaks at a casino. I give myself no breaks on Verite. I maximize profits by reducing volatility and/or ducking out of poor deck compositions. I'm simply waiting for the game to come me. Boring as hell. But it works like novocaine.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-13-2018 at 02:55 PM.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Maximize SCORE, but don't do it at a great expense to simplicity, unless it's worth it. In card counting, it's usually not going to be worth it.
    Okay. But if you only seek to maximize SCORE there are many BC, PE, IC results to consider. Is there some type of qualifier? For instance the HiLO is 970 BC and 511 PE 760 IC. Should one never go below those figures? Because you can. But it may be a more volatile game. Hard to determine from Sims alone. Thus why I'm asking tough questions on a forum.

  5. #25
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    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Maximize SCORE, but don't do it at a great expense to simplicity, unless it's worth it. In card counting, it's usually not going to be worth it.
    Okay. But if you only seek to maximize SCORE there are many BC, PE, IC results to consider. Is there some type of qualifier? For instance the HiLO is 970 BC and 511 PE 760 IC. Should one never go below those figures? Because you can. But it may be a more volatile game. Hard to determine from Sims alone. Thus why I'm asking tough questions on a forum.
    Moses, don't buy into that nonsense that higher SCORE equals less variance or volatility. That is some of the nonsense that T3 has pushed for several years and it is just not true. It has been thoroughly debunked by Don Schlesinger.


    RS_ is completely correct, in my opinion. There comes a point that maximizing SCORE just is NOT worth the additional effort. It is a classic exercise in "diminishing returns". You put in XXX amount of extra work, for a very tiny benefit. Just not worth it in most cases.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Maximize SCORE, but don't do it at a great expense to simplicity, unless it's worth it. In card counting, it's usually not going to be worth it.
    Okay. But if you only seek to maximize SCORE there are many BC, PE, IC results to consider. Is there some type of qualifier? For instance the HiLO is 970 BC and 511 PE 760 IC. Should one never go below those figures? Because you can. But it may be a more volatile game. Hard to determine from Sims alone. Thus why I'm asking tough questions on a forum.
    Moses, don't buy into that nonsense that higher SCORE equals less variance or volatility. That is some of the nonsense that T3 has pushed for several years and it is just not true. It has been thoroughly debunked by Don Schlesinger.


    RS_ is completely correct, in my opinion. There comes a point that maximizing SCORE just is NOT worth the additional effort. It is a classic exercise in "diminishing returns". You put in XXX amount of extra work, for a very tiny benefit. Just not worth it in most cases.
    Thanks for your input KJ. I agree. But I think I play a game that no one else on forums encounters. Right now, I employ 3 different counts based on the tendencies of dealers. What a pain in the ass! But it must be done. I'd liked to utilize my time off during Holiday season to condense it down to just one. I'm already pissing people off. For instance, my lady wants me to go to wrap packages at the community center. I want to work on this and watch football. Then... we have the Nutcracker, get a tree, decorate it, and God knows what else must be done. The real world just doesn't understand this IS work. When they go to their place of employment everyone understands they are at work. But when I go to my office to work on my game or miss a party it's "O you fuck head."

    A quote from Peter Griffin was "great engineers understand complex equations." T3 in a nutshell. "But the best know how to make complex simple again."
    Easier said than done. It's based on your tools.

    Don S once said more or less "faak BC and PE, it all comes down to SCORE." Insurance is the #1 item on his ill18 and #2 is a distant 2nd. But Flash and his blue ink bull crap and arm chair prognostications represents a quote from Jim Garrison (JFK movie). "Create confusion to confound the understanding."

    For example, look at Silver Fox count. Now, drop the 2 and add a point to the 5. Move the Ace only for insurance purposes. BC and PE plunge but SCORE soars to the top. Easy peasy count. So far I love the test drive and I think it works for all 3 dealer tendencies. I can be as complex as I need to be in order to win. But I'd rather keep it simple and win. I think there is a happy medium. There is a point where one can make the game so complex it is no longer fun. THAT complex isn't necessary to win, only be the smartest guy on the forum. What the hell difference does that make?

    Generally speaking, newbies can't spell CAT if you spot them the C and the A. But T3 is serving up 15 letter words to them.
    Last edited by Moses; 12-09-2018 at 08:11 AM.

  7. #27
    So Norm.

    1. ) You have 28 authors of blackjack listed in your publications that are all evaluated by BC, PE, IC.

    2.) You have Don S who says, all you need is SCORE.

    3.) You have T3 and Flash that represent over 20k posts and have really stated nothing.

    4.) You sell products to provide focus and direction.

    5.) Yet with all the above, you've created more confusion and concern than a roller coaster ride with loose boards, nuts, and bolts at Coney Island.

    We sift through threads of spy cameras and heat in Turtle Lake WI. while you stick you head in the sand. Don't you think it's about time you took this mess upon yourself to clear up the confusion? I know it takes a lot of work. I'm DOING it. But it seems to me you owe something to your subscribers and those who have purchased your products. No?
    Last edited by Moses; 12-10-2018 at 07:24 AM.

  8. #28
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    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    So Norm.

    1. ) You have 28 authors of blackjack listed in your publications that are all evaluated by BC, PE, IC.

    2.) You have Don S who says, all you need is SCORE.

    3.) You have T3 and Flash that represent over 20k posts and have really stated nothing.

    4.) You sell products to provide focus and direction.

    5.) Yet with all the above, you've created more confusion and concern than a roller coaster ride with loose boards, nuts, and bolts at Coney Island.
    Moses, a forum owner has a different agenda that sometimes places him in conflict. When BJinfo shut down in 2011, the large membership, myself included were looking for a place to continue to share our ideas, opinions and experiences. But that was NOT Norm's purpose in starting BJTF. Norm saw an opportunity to promote his software and now other products. Quite frankly the more traffic the site generates, the better for someone like Norm. The more people that visit, the more sales.

    Controversial posts, topic, discussions, are what brings people to the site. So someone like a T3 (or Singer on this site) is exactly what the site owner wants. They keep the discussion going and traffic up. And it is not a co-incidence that these guys making false claims are always one of the top posters (in number) of the particular site.

    Now in Norm's case, being a math guy, there was a conflict (similarly to Dan Druff here). So the way the get around that is very occasionally they point out that the ridiculous claims go against the math and don't add up. And I mean occasionally! Like once every couple months they will point out that the phony claim person's math doesn't work. But 99% of the time, the claims go unchallenged and do exactly what the site owner wants, draw controversy, discussion and traffic to the site.

    And when you criticize these site owner, who in the case of Norm and Dan Druff are math guys that know better, they can say, "well I challenged the phony math claims". Yeah 1% of the time. That is NOT good enough. Phony math and claims based on alternative math must be challenged and corrected 100% of the time. Otherwise you are providing a platform for this bullshit.

    Now in Norm's case, not only did he allow these ridiculous claims to stand without challenge from him 99% of the time, but he then shut down those of us that challenged the mathematically impossible claims.

    So you need to look for the agenda of the site owner in these things. I'll tell you the guy with the purest intentions, was Mike Shackleford (Wizard). Mike had no agenda. He was about the math. And he didn't allow ridiculous claims to go unchallenged. And he allowed the members of his site to challenge and shoot down ridiculous claims. To his credit, his site was pure for the most part as far as the math, because Mike was and still is a pure math guy. Unfortunately that model didn't translate to any profit from the site, while he was running it. He just got lucky in that an internet casino company came along offering big money to buy the site. That wasn't in the plan....Mike didn't foresee that coming. But power to him.

  9. #29
    Thanks for providing a deeper understanding KJ.

    The problem is, as it's stated, my items #1 and #2 are either/or. It can't be both (as stated). Now perhaps Don S and Norm could put their heads together and come up with a viable solution. Agreed. I don't think it matters a whole helluva lot in shoes.

    The DIFFERENCE is Norm is selling products in addition to the forum. Buy it and then confuse the shit our of oneself because items #3 is neither/nor. They need to start eliminating and condensing terms as opposed to adding more.

    Great engineers making complex simple again? Or create confusion to confound the understanding? It can't be both. Correct?

    Plus Norm has told me privately and now stated publicly that he is not about quantity of posts but quality. Lately, he has accomplished neither.

    So like Nike. JUST DO IT.
    Last edited by Moses; 12-10-2018 at 09:58 AM.

  10. #30
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    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Thanks for providing a deeper understanding KJ.

    The problem is, as it's stated, my items #1 and #2 are either/or. It can't be both (as stated). Now perhaps Don S and Norm could put their heads together and come up with a viable solution. Agreed. I don't think it matters a whole helluva lot in shoes.

    The DIFFERENCE is Norm is selling products in addition to the forum. Buy it and then confuse the shit our of oneself because items #3 is neither/nor. They need to start eliminating and condensing terms as opposed to adding more.

    Great engineers making complex simple again? Or create confusion to confound the understanding? It can't be both. Correct?
    But that confusion works to Norm's benefit. Especially with the newer guys who are the one's confused. The experienced guys aren't confused. So how do the newer guys who are confused, figure out the math? They buy Norm's software products and figure out things for themselves. Norm benefits from the confusion and/or false claims.

    Now, I don't think it is making Norm rich. He may already be rich, I don't know. Norm's primary income and money did not come from playing blackjack, nor selling blackjack software products. He earned his money in the business world. I previously said something related to banking or wall street, which Norm denies. But that doesn't matter. At this point, Norm is old and I assume retired and his forum and software/product sales are supplemental. And THAT may be the worse part. Norm is selling out....has sold out, and provides a platform for phony and alternative math that he knows is bullshit, for a little but of money that he doesn't even need. It is just supplemental or "hobby" money.

  11. #31
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    One can argue that Shackleford sold out as well. Like I said his site was pure. It was purely about the math and he didn't allow phony alternative math claims to stand. And he allowed other members (AP's) to shut down those claims with challenges. Sort of a self-policing.

    So Shackelford eventually sold out and allowed his once "pure" site to become a joke. That site is not what it was. It isn't even about gambling or gambling math anymore. It is a clubhouse for middle-aged (I am being kind here) guys stuck in their juvenile youth. BUT at least Shackleford sold out for millions. What was it 2.8 million or 1.8 million....I forget. Norm sells out for probably a few thousand dollars in software sales per year.

    I guess that makes Norm a $5 crack whore compared to Mike Shackleford being a higher priced "escort".

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    But that confusion works to Norm's benefit. Especially with the newer guys who are the one's confused. The experienced guys aren't confused. So how do the newer guys who are confused, figure out the math? They buy Norm's software products and figure out things for themselves. Norm benefits from the confusion and/or false claims.
    The problem, at least in single deck, the software has flaws. It's designed for a game of cards played by people. We play a game of people played with cards. For instance, any normal player wouldn't max bet with a deck exhausted of Aces. But the SIM cannot distinguish the difference. Don S. will say. That's okay it's still a viable play. NOT if your limited in your bet amount and frequency of large bets with casino tolerance.

    The simple concept of Jim Garrison was "answer the question, answer the question." IF one person would've done it, there would be no conspiracy theory in JFK.

    Don S is good enough to answer most questions with reasonable logic. One can tell he has a strong background of a solid work ethic. But then, Flash comes in and fucks it all up again with his arm armchair, shoot from the hip, absolute pompous, perpetuate blue ink bullshit. Geezous.

    Don if you're out there. One simple question. Does BC, PE, IC possess any viability whatsoever?

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    BC, PE, IC, and any other metric are combined to get the SCORE..
    ...And SCORE means MONEY which is my motivation.

    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    It’s like the ingredients when building a cake where top priority is taste. It doesn’t matter if you use egg whites, the best flour, or dog shit — the most important thing is taste. If a cake tastes best when made with dog shit, then you use dog shit to make a cake.
    Every once in awhile I come across advice that I can clutch onto. Thanks RS. It occurred to me the most important part of baking a cake is the pan. I mean try it on a cookie sheet or in a bowl and it's no longer cake. So my pan has to be 48. It's divisible by 24,16,12,8,4,2. Therefore, the ratios are very easy to spot and formula friendly (in case I forget, which I don't.)

    I've lost count of how many consecutive days I've spent working on this cake. But even though many variations of counts, within the 48, have the same SCORE, many are dog shit.

    I eliminated all counts below 530 PE and 940 BC. I had to begin to eliminate somewhere, or by the time I finished the cake, I'd be dead. Moving the Ace increases IC to above 750. Others were eliminated with sims for SCORE. I figured out soon there is no need to have more than 4 point variations of a 1/2 point. Brain fuck and it doesn't improve performance. Therefore, 10 were taken for a test drive with Verite. It's down to 3 which are now being reexamined in CV Data logs. My primary one I've used for years, column count is best so far. But I remain objective and open to other variations. The worst person I can deceive is me.

    Everyone has their favorite cake. But how do they know it's their favorite? Probably because they've tasted the others. This process has helped me to realize why there are so many counts, which are different forms of guessing in a shoe. It's 312 cards. That's probably why the need for 200 billion round sims. It's all one big clusterfuck. No need to guess at 52 or 104.

    Ironic, the guy that can do all these exotic sims for T3, Tarzan, and others? Employs HiLO.
    Last edited by Moses; 12-30-2018 at 07:04 AM.

  14. #34
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    I have said before that I suppose IF I only had access to and played single deck games like Moses, I would be more concerned and experiment with a higher count or more likely side counts. But I don't have that scenario and most of us don't. I play mostly 6 deck games and with shoe games, count is far down the listof what is important.

    Playing conditions are top of that list. Top two penetration and heads up play. And if I can find the two together...boom. My EV for that game goes through the roof, as I can get many, many rounds in during a very short period of time, still minimizing exposing myself. And because of the increased EV for that session, I can afford to throw some cover techniques, like spreading both ways or using alternating different spreads and actually play longer sessions.

    I have one place that cuts less than half a deck from a 6 deck game normally. Sometimes as low as 20 cards. When I get that game heads up, I can score several days worth of EV in an hour and a half and still not have exposed myself too much. If I do sense heat, I can even afford to tone down my spread.

    This is the benefit of playing a variety of conditions and not just subject to the same old single deck, standard penetration game, Moses.

    Edit/Add on: And btw, any counter that finds such a game that I just described is going to have his expected value per round jump dramatically, no matter what count he/she plays. The difference between the hi-lo counter and some "goofball" employing a level 3 count with side counts will be minimal, probably non existent. Both will see results go through the roof.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 12-30-2018 at 08:40 AM.

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    I have one place that cuts less than half a deck from a 6 deck game normally. Sometimes as low as 20 cards. When I get that game heads up, I can score several days worth of EV in an hour and a half and still not have exposed myself too much. If I do sense heat, I can even afford to tone down my spread.

    This is the benefit of playing a variety of conditions and not just subject to the same old single deck, standard penetration game, Moses.
    .
    The problem is game selection works both ways. The opponent will not witness my skill level at sub standard games. Come to think of it, every time I got bounced was on a red chip inferior game over 5 years ago. This probably put me on a list. So now, I have to prove I'm nothing for them to fear. Now a continual pain in the ass.

    My variety comes from sports bets. They can handle big winners much better. Plus I don't have to play all those damn insignificant hands. Thus there is a time investment to consider as well. I can be taking a nap or watching a movie while my bet is being determined.

  16. #36
    Done...Damn I'm glad that's over. It only took a little over 5 years with all the confusion and contradiction from T3 and the Supremes.

    Thanks KJ and RS for your input. It helped a lot.

    Now what the hell am I gonna do?

  17. #37
    The reason Griffin's EoRs are better at single deck is because he calculated them for single deck. Single deck, balanced counts with lots of indices.

    Norm writes:

    Well then he figured it wrong. One can tag 2 the at 0 and improve SCORE in a single deck sim. But tag 7 less than 2? SCORE declines.

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