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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #21
    Well that Indiana game is a disaster. Be glad I didn't post it earlier.

    Here's my other pick for the day, starting at 5:30pm PST:

    Brooklyn at Dallas - Under 215

    Wesley Matthews is still out.

    Dennis Smith Jr, with an aching wrist, is going to play.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Starting in a few:

    Sac at Golden State - Under 225
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #23
    Dan: you made a comment that you were going to consider betting the unders when the total was over 220.
    it made me curious so I started tracking the results when the total was 220 or more - I did not consider any bets when the total was over 230 - that's rare and seemed too high
    startlingly, since November 17 the over has crushed - going 27-11
    that's more than 2 standard deviations from break even
    in some games they're scoring a tremendous amount of points - getting close to and over 250 fairly often
    it may just be an anomaly - probably - I'm not sure

    I tracked it using covers.com which has all the details of past games
    linked are the results from Nov. 17 from covers.com if you want to double check my figures
    I'm going to keep tracking. very interesting



    https://www.covers.com/Sports/NBA/Ma...ate=2018-11-17
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 11-28-2018 at 04:23 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  4. #24
    correction to my previous post - the over did not go 27-11 when over 220 since Nov. 17 - it went 24-11
    please don't feed the trolls

  5. #25
    Denver at Portland - Under 212

    My record right now is 5-6-1 for the season.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Dan: you made a comment that you were going to consider betting the unders when the total was over 220.
    it made me curious so I started tracking the results when the total was 220 or more - I did not consider any bets when the total was over 230 - that's rare and seemed too high
    startlingly, since November 17 the over has crushed - going 27-11
    that's more than 2 standard deviations from break even
    in some games they're scoring a tremendous amount of points - getting close to and over 250 fairly often
    it may just be an anomaly - probably - I'm not sure

    I tracked it using covers.com which has all the details of past games
    linked are the results from Nov. 17 from covers.com if you want to double check my figures
    I'm going to keep tracking. very interesting



    https://www.covers.com/Sports/NBA/Ma...ate=2018-11-17
    Yeah, overs have killed it this year. That's why I've posted so few picks thus far. I'm having a hard time figuring things out since the scoring level in the NBA has changed so drastically.

    Also of note, there has been tremendous line movement this year, as everyone seems to hammer the over, and Vegas keeps adjusting.

    If you bet the opening lines in every single NBA game and went with OVER, you'd probably have done very well so far this season.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Weird NBA season so far.

    Started off 1-3-1.

    Then went 4-0 with all four winning easily.

    Then went 0-4, with none of the 4 coming close.

    Here's one today:

    Portland at Dallas - Under 216.5 (216 ok)

    Doncic will likely play. Dennis Smith is questionable.

    Game at 5:40pm PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #28
    Won with Dallas under yesterday, so let's do it again.

    Dallas at New Orleans Under 226.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #29
    Last minute:

    Denver at Charlotte - Under 218.5

    Currently 6-8-1
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #30
    Toronto at Brooklyn - Under 221.5 (last minute)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #31
    I'm 7-9-1 now. Should have won both of those above, but a pointless foul with 1 second left in the Denver game screwed it, making the final total 220.



    This is starting in about 10 minutes, but I really like it:

    Boston at Washington - Under 220
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #32
    Also Detroit at Charlotte - Under 217
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    And for those of you who missed those two, here's one more which doesn't start until 6pm PST

    Miami at Utah - Under 212
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #34
    Went 2-1 yesterday. Easy win with Utah. Unlucky loss with Boston after great 1H. Lucky win with Charlotte after 3 bad quarters and a great 4th.


    Here's one for the night game:

    Dallas at Phoenix - Under 210

    You can get 210.5 or 211 on some books

    Current record is 9-10-1
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #35
    Nice, clean, easy win.

    Back to .500

    10-10-1

    Now time to get winning.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #36
    FYI I'm on the fence on this one, but a little bit to the side of liking the bet, so I'm firing.

    I don't want to bitch later that I "almost picked it" when it wins.

    Golden State at Sacramento - Under 235.5 (236 available at some books)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #37
    GS/Sac game was a dud. Lost pretty badly.

    Here's one I like better:

    Starting at 4:35pm PT

    Lakers at Brooklyn - Under 229
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #38
    Here's one with a lower total, but I still think it's good:

    Dallas at Denver - Under 208 (207.5 ok)

    Starts at 6:05pm PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #39
    Split 'em yesterday.

    Finally jumping on the Utah under train.

    In 5 of the past 11 games, one or both teams in Utah games finished with 91 or fewer points.

    In 6 of the past 11 games, the total was 201 points or fewer.

    Soooo...

    Golden State at Utah - Under 223
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #40
    All aboard the Utah Under Train!!!

    Back to .500

    12-12-1
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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