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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #21
    Well that Indiana game is a disaster. Be glad I didn't post it earlier.

    Here's my other pick for the day, starting at 5:30pm PST:

    Brooklyn at Dallas - Under 215

    Wesley Matthews is still out.

    Dennis Smith Jr, with an aching wrist, is going to play.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Starting in a few:

    Sac at Golden State - Under 225
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #23
    Dan: you made a comment that you were going to consider betting the unders when the total was over 220.
    it made me curious so I started tracking the results when the total was 220 or more - I did not consider any bets when the total was over 230 - that's rare and seemed too high
    startlingly, since November 17 the over has crushed - going 27-11
    that's more than 2 standard deviations from break even
    in some games they're scoring a tremendous amount of points - getting close to and over 250 fairly often
    it may just be an anomaly - probably - I'm not sure

    I tracked it using covers.com which has all the details of past games
    linked are the results from Nov. 17 from covers.com if you want to double check my figures
    I'm going to keep tracking. very interesting



    https://www.covers.com/Sports/NBA/Ma...ate=2018-11-17
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 11-28-2018 at 03:23 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  4. #24
    correction to my previous post - the over did not go 27-11 when over 220 since Nov. 17 - it went 24-11
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  5. #25
    Denver at Portland - Under 212

    My record right now is 5-6-1 for the season.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Dan: you made a comment that you were going to consider betting the unders when the total was over 220.
    it made me curious so I started tracking the results when the total was 220 or more - I did not consider any bets when the total was over 230 - that's rare and seemed too high
    startlingly, since November 17 the over has crushed - going 27-11
    that's more than 2 standard deviations from break even
    in some games they're scoring a tremendous amount of points - getting close to and over 250 fairly often
    it may just be an anomaly - probably - I'm not sure

    I tracked it using covers.com which has all the details of past games
    linked are the results from Nov. 17 from covers.com if you want to double check my figures
    I'm going to keep tracking. very interesting



    https://www.covers.com/Sports/NBA/Ma...ate=2018-11-17
    Yeah, overs have killed it this year. That's why I've posted so few picks thus far. I'm having a hard time figuring things out since the scoring level in the NBA has changed so drastically.

    Also of note, there has been tremendous line movement this year, as everyone seems to hammer the over, and Vegas keeps adjusting.

    If you bet the opening lines in every single NBA game and went with OVER, you'd probably have done very well so far this season.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Weird NBA season so far.

    Started off 1-3-1.

    Then went 4-0 with all four winning easily.

    Then went 0-4, with none of the 4 coming close.

    Here's one today:

    Portland at Dallas - Under 216.5 (216 ok)

    Doncic will likely play. Dennis Smith is questionable.

    Game at 5:40pm PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #28
    Won with Dallas under yesterday, so let's do it again.

    Dallas at New Orleans Under 226.5
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #29
    Last minute:

    Denver at Charlotte - Under 218.5

    Currently 6-8-1
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #30
    Toronto at Brooklyn - Under 221.5 (last minute)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #31
    I'm 7-9-1 now. Should have won both of those above, but a pointless foul with 1 second left in the Denver game screwed it, making the final total 220.



    This is starting in about 10 minutes, but I really like it:

    Boston at Washington - Under 220
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #32
    Also Detroit at Charlotte - Under 217
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    And for those of you who missed those two, here's one more which doesn't start until 6pm PST

    Miami at Utah - Under 212
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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