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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #61
    What an embarrassing loss.

    Of course, 3 games went over 250 today, so it just wasn't a good day to pick unders.
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  2. #62
    Last minute:

    Phoenix at Toronto - under 223.5
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  3. #63
    Here's an under starting in about 10 minutes:

    Brooklyn at Orlando - Under 217
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  4. #64
    The NO Pelicans have scored 133 or more in 3 of their last 6 games.

    Portland, a reliable UNDER team for awhile, has played 5 consecutive games where the total was over 220.

    So how can I pick under for this matchup?

    Because I can.

    Oh, an Lillard is hurting (though he didn't appear that way on Wednesday), and Harkless is either going to be out or also hurting.

    New Orleans at Portland - Under 233.5

    And it starts in 3+ hours, so you have time to bet it.
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  5. #65
    Been considering this one all day, and I'm finally onboard.

    As maddening as the Warriors can be to watch in an under bet, as they sink 3 after 3 to sink your hopes and dreams, I believe this one really will go under.

    The Cousins factor (he's finally returning) probably will throw a wrench into everything, and with a line lie 242, if the slightest thing goes wrong with the fast scoring pace, you're in good shape with an under.

    Plus the Clippers have actually been playing some defense lately.

    Golden State at Clippers - Under 242 (you can get 243 on some accounts on Bovada, btw)
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  6. #66
    1-2 yesterday

    Now 21-18-1 after 40 picks

    Just one today:

    Boston at Atlanta - Under 226

    Starting 4:35pm PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #67
    Houston at Philadelphia - Under 234

    Some books have 234.5/235

    Starts at 5:05pm PST, so you have a bit of time.

    Disclaimer: I haven't been good at Philly unders this season

    No Paul (obv), Capela, or Butler.

    Embiid has back problems and is questionable. Charles Barkley publicly lambasted the 76ers recently for playing Embiid while he's hurting.
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  8. #68
    Won the last 2, to go up to 23-18-1.

    Today's pick:

    Portland at OKC - Under 226

    Starts 5:05pm PST
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #69
    Lost yesterday, to fall to 23-19-1.

    The Portland under train has derailed.

    But I've been ignoring another recent under train -- Memphis.

    They've played 11 games in 2019.

    Of those 11:

    - 9 have seen them score 101 or fewer points
    - 7 have seen them score 96 or fewer points
    - 3 have seen them score 90 or fewer points

    Wow.

    Charlotte has also had a lot of low-scoring performances in 2019, save for that 135-point outburst against the Suns recently.

    They've played 10 games in 2019. Of those 10:

    - 9 of them have seen scores of 110 or fewer points
    - 5 of them have seen scores of 97 or fewer points


    Regarding injuries, the Hornets have been without Cody Zeller for 3 weeks, and the Grizz are missing Kyle Anderson. More recently, Marc Gasol has been suffering back issues and is "questionable", and also is on the trade block. So it's very possible he will sit (but don't necessarily count on it).

    So here's the obvious pick:

    Charlotte at Memphis - Under 208.5

    Game starts 5:05pm PST
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #70
    And now a semi-last-minute pick:

    Houston at New York - Under 227

    Starts 4:35pm PST
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #71
    1-1 on Wednesday

    Two today:

    Battle of NYC: New York at Brooklyn - Under 221.5
    Toronto at Houston - Under 229
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  12. #72
    Another 1-1 day. Both picks had a bad quarter. 67 in the 1st for NY/Brooklyn, but it still easily covered. 78 points in the 2nd for Tor/Hou, which actually had a decent chance to cover with 3 minutes left, but didn't come close.


    Anyway, after much internal debate, I decided I'm not going to let the MEMPHIS UNDER train pass me by, just because of one bad pick.

    Memphis once again scored under 100 (as did their opponent) last time out.

    There are other reasons for this pick, which I won't bother getting into.

    Indiana at Memphis - Under 202.5 (203 on Bovada right now)

    Begins 5:05pm PST
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  13. #73
    Indiana under looked in the bag yesterday, and then 35 points in the final 3:48 (!!) sunk it. Very heartbreaking.

    Here are two unders starting soon (4:05 PST or so)

    Orlando at Houston - Under 221.5 (222 on some Bovada accounts)
    Toronto at Dallas - Under 220 (221 on some Bovada)

    Chris Paul coming back. Count on that throwing a wrench into the offense and the pace.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #74
    I'm going to start betting overs, too.

    Stupid for me to ignore this.

    I've seen so many games I think will go over, and I've been right a good deal of the time, but I've just dismissed them as "not an under, so I'm not betting it" rather than betting the other side.

    Here's a list of today's games:

    Was/Cle - Result: OVER, Public: Slightly OVER
    Mil/Det - Result: OVER, Public: UNDER
    OKC/Orl - Result: OVER, Public: Slightly OVER
    Chi/Bkn - Result: OVER, Public: OVER
    NO/Hou - Result: In progress (probably going OVER), Public: UNDER
    Pho/SA - Results: Halftime (likely OVER), Public: More bets UNDER, more money OVER
    Phi/LAL - Hasn't started yet, Public: More bets OVER, more money UNDER, both close to even both ways

    So we could have a clean sweep of OVERS today.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #75
    Anyway, I'm going to bet that there will NOT be a clean sweep of overs, as I'm going to take the under in the Sixers/Lakers game.

    Continuing with the theme of "Players coming back from injury who will impede the pace of scoring", we have Jimmy Butler finally returning tonight. Also, Joe Embiid has been having stomach issues, and will play, but actually skipped the shootaround. Even Wilson Chandler has some hamstring tightness.

    On the Lakers side, there's no Lebron, no Kuzma, and no Ball (even though Ball has sucked anyway).

    Philadelphia at Lakers - Under 230
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  16. #76
    Memphis at Charlotte - Under 203.5 (204 on Bovada)
    Houston at Denver - Under 223.5 (224 on Bovada)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #77
    Forgot to post these. Already started a minute ago. Oops.

    Well here they are:

    Houston under 235
    Atlanta under 222

    I'm still counting them for my record and did bet them.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #78
    Okay, so here's a pick on the big game today.

    Memphis at New York - Under 201

    Knicks 5 straight games with fewer than 100 scored.

    Memphis 4 of last 5 games with 97 or fewer scored.

    Game starts at 10:05am PT.



    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #79
    Atlanta at Washington - Under 230
    Denver at Detroit - Under 209

    Starting at about 4:05-4:10 PT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #80
    Terrible day yesterday.

    A pair of 206.5 games for today:

    Detroit at New York - Under 206.5 (starting now)
    Minnesota at Memphis - Under 206.5 (starting 5:05pm PST)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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