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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #1
    Will be focusing mostly upon unders.

    Season starts October 16.

    I will post the picks fairly close to game time, in most cases (I'll shoot for around 30-40 minutes prior, but sometimes less).
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Las Vegas
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    111
    Thanks for sharing these.

    What was your record/units won last season? I often hear NFL/NBA are the hardest leagues to handicap.

  3. #3
    I haven't forgotten about NBA.

    Well, yesterday I did, since I was scrambling to get tickets to the Dodgers.

    Today I just didn't like any of the lines.

    Check back tomorrow.

    My record is in the other NBA thread. I forget off the top of my head what it was, but I won overall.

    However, I did fall significantly from my 60% pace, which I had through December 30.

    Last year I not only won 60% of picks in November and December, but I was winning by lots of wide (20-30 point) margins on the unders. As I've said before, the margin of victory is often more indicative of your handicapping skill than your overall record, because there is a huge luck factor in close games.

    In January and beyond, most of my wins were much closer, and my record was far worse.

    I will watch closely this year, and I'll either modify strategy or shut things down if I start to struggle in January and beyond.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #4
    First NBA pick of 2018-19

    Orlando at Philadelphia - Under 216.5 (216 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    Posted this earlier on my PFA forum but forgot to repost here. Game already started.


    Houston/Clippers under 221

    Sorry for forgetting the repost
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #6
    Hoping to avoid 0-3 to start the season.

    Phoenix at Golden State - under 228
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #7
    Barely won yesterday after it looked hopeless following a 70-point 3rd.

    Today (starting at 4pm PT):

    Philadelphia at Detroit - Under 215

    Drummond is sick but playing.

    Simmons is out.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #8
    1-3 start. Tougher to handicap unders this year because of the 14-second offensive rebound clock. Driving up scores.

    I decided I like the Lakers under tonight.

    Starts at 7:30 PT.

    Denver at Lakers - Under 235
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #9
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Posts
    2,253
    Dan-have you noticed that the over/unders are being set higher because of the clock?

    Is the average final total higher by any significant amount?

  10. #10
    Yes, the over/unders are set way higher thus far.

    It's not even close.

    This is partially because of the clock, and partially because defense is not being aggressively played this year. Some of it might be due to the season just having started, but I have a feeling that there's just a shift away from the importance of defense, much like how in MLB there's been a shift away from speed and manufacturing runs, and it has been replaced with more home runs and more strikeouts.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #11
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2013
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    180
    Noticed final total score was 235. Who wins you, the bookie,or is it a push?

  12. #12
    Fired actual last minute:

    Chicago at New Orleans - Under 228
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by seemoreroyals View Post
    Noticed final total score was 235. Who wins you, the bookie,or is it a push?
    Tie
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #14
    Anyway, I got my first decisive win in this early season. Now I'm 2-3-1, but the other win was a lucky one due to 4th quarter trash time.

    From what I've seen this season, it's wise to stay away from unders with totals less than 220. I liked this one because it was both 228 AND had the usual factors I like when making an under pick.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #15
    Detroit at Toronto - Under 222 -115 (under 221.5 -110 ok)

    Starts at 4:30pm PST

    Serge Ibaka OUT
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #16
    Winner.

    Record now 3-3-1. I might be posting more picks than before, now that the season has been going for a few weeks.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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