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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #141
    Lost that one above.

    Today:

    Atlanta at Orlando - Under 225.5 - starting in a few minutes
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  2. #142
    Warning: I have been awful regarding Detroit AND this is an underdog pick AND Blake Griffin is questionable to play.

    Detroit +225 at Oklahoma City
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  3. #143
    NBA:

    Miami +170 at Brooklyn

    Starting now
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  4. #144
    you haven't made an NBA bet since 4/10 - I'm assuming that you're through betting the NBA and aren't betting the playoffs

    I don't want to be overly critical because you don't charge for your picks but you should have posted your final results

    also, posting as you did in your MLB thread yesterday that you won a bet that you didn't post is for the birds
    please don't feed the trolls

  5. #145
    I didn't take credit in the record for the baseball win. I just mentioned it. I won't take credit in my record for any pick I don't post.

    I will tally the results shortly. I am not totally done with the NBA, but I pick very little in the playoffs. I almost went with Denver moneyline today, and now wish I had, but whatever.
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  6. #146
    Here is a spread pick on the night's final game:

    Utah -2.5 -105 vs. Houston

    I'm getting -2 -105 on Bovada, but the prevailing line is -2.5 -105, so that's the one I'll post. I don't like posting outlier lines for my record here, because that's not fair for everyone else using other books.

    Utah will lose this series, but this should be the one game they win.
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  7. #147
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Here is a spread pick on the night's final game:

    Utah -2.5 -105 vs. Houston

    I'm getting -2 -105 on Bovada, but the prevailing line is -2.5 -105, so that's the one I'll post. I don't like posting outlier lines for my record here, because that's not fair for everyone else using other books.

    Utah will lose this series, but this should be the one game they win.
    I just wanted to mention that last night's game, along with the Warriors blowing the 30-point third quarter lead the other night, have been two of the strangest NBA playoff games I have ever seen. As in ever (and I'm 61).

    So Hardin starts off 0 for 15. Wow. And Donovan Mitchell, the primo Utah threat, starts off 5 for 6 or something like that, and then gives a masonry clinic by missing his next 12 or 13 shots. Not only that, he has a five-minute span where he misses five of six free throws. I believe he wound up 7 of 24 or in that vicinity. And somehow, Houston wins the game.

    The thing about modern NBA players -- they just do not know when to rein it in or mix it up. Despite bricking 10 or more consecutive shots, they have no qualms about firing 25-footers next trip.

    Utah really didn't do anything differently when Mitchell went in the tank, and it cost them.

    The NBA players are unbelievably skilled, but if I were coaching a high school team, I'd forbid them from watching this stuff.

    P.S. While it's nice for the readers that you use "standard" or "vanilla" numbers for your posted record, it's also true that as much as numbers move these days (as compared to 20-30 years ago), the timing of what numbers you get when says something about your ability to shop and time your bets, which is a big part of current expertise. The McCusker Reports in the Retro Road Trip thread were really tough on handicappers as they pinned you down to Friday afternoon to Saturday morning numbers at a particular sports book (Leroy's), and those were the numbers against which one was graded. In today's sports betting, especially with something like college hoops or (to a somewhat lesser extent) with college football, the numbers move so much that that kind of grading is actually unfair. Part of the trick is anticipating the line moves and timing the wagers. Actually, it's a big part of the trick.

    So I would not be too hard on yourself regarding outlier numbers. If you can actually bet 'em, I'd count 'em.
    Last edited by redietz; 04-21-2019 at 01:38 PM.

  8. #148
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    I just wanted to mention that last night's game, along with the Warriors blowing the 30-point third quarter lead the other night, have been two of the strangest NBA playoff games I have ever seen. As in ever (and I'm 61).
    Umm....speaking of strange what about the NHL playoffs this year? I hope Dan will forgive me for posting this here, but I don't think there will be a whole lot of interest, so it won't really hijack the thread.

    So in the East the #1 seed, who not only was the number 1 seed but the huge favorite to win the Stanley cup at 6/5 goes out, getting swept.

    In the West, the #1 seed does manage slightly better losing 4 games to 1, but they are out.

    Also in the west the #2 seed is down 3-2 games with an away game 6.

    And the #3 seed is currently down 3 games to 2 to the Golden Knights and could be out in the next hour.

    In the west it may be the bottom 4 seeds that advance, coupled with the huge overall favorite already out, it is wide open to say the least.

  9. #149
    Prior to the playoffs starting, I considered taking Boston to win the entire shebang, as I felt they were arguably the best defensive team. Well, they survived an elimination game today, and are 3-3. The playoffs have been a rebuttal of the regular season. I imagine that books are doing very, very well.

  10. #150
    Speaking of Houston, they should get the sweep tonight.

    Houston -3 at Utah
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  11. #151
    I'm gonna be super public today and go with:

    Houston -8.5 vs. Utah

    I think this one is going to be a blowout after the prior game's 4th quarter debacle.
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  12. #152
    BTW I'm not counting this in the record either way (because most books don't have it), but I did bet Houston -15.5 +295.

    This is the type of game to do it. If the Rockets are doing well in the game up 3-1, it's much more likely to end up a blowout than normal.
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  13. #153
    The fourth quarter is about to start, so I want to make this comment. Since the midway point of the third game, when Harden and Mitchell were bricking shot after shot, I was confused about the series. I didn't know whether (1) the third game was some horrible Harden anomaly (he started 0 of 15) that kept Utah in the game or (2) Utah had solved Houston in a sense, even though they were somewhat overmatched. They had figured Houston out, even though they wound up losing Game Three.

    I'm still not sure which is correct.

  14. #154
    Decided I'm going with Portland +160 moneyline for tonight's game.

    Keep in mind that the playoffs are hard to get an edge, so don't just blindly follow this. I also didn't have a particularly good NBA year.

    But that's what I'm betting tonight.

    Portland -4 also ok.
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  15. #155
    Portland was absolutely golden the first half. They used some wild-ass lineup combinations I had never seen for long stretches. For example, for about four minutes, they had a lineup on the floor that had four players you could consider shooting guards. I'm really curious to see if they keep doing stuff like that or play it closer to the vest the second half.

  16. #156
    Early in the fourth, Portland pulled away with the four SG crew -- McCollum, Turner, Curry, and Hood.

  17. #157
    I didn't realize Harkless's ankle was that bad. That's why the four SG lineup. It's funny, down the stretch, Portland got killed on the offensive glass, but it was not when the four SG's were in the game.

  18. #158
    Milwaukee +108 at Boston (+1.5 ok, currently +2/2.5 on Bovada)
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  19. #159
    Golden State vs. Houston - Under 220.5 (221 on Bovada for some people)
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  20. #160
    Let's try this once more:

    Houston/GS Under 220 -110 (220.5 on Bovada)
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