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Thread: Dan Druff's NBA picks for 2018-2019 season

  1. #161
    I have a +2000 Portland western conference bet and a +4150 Bucks/Portland Finals matchup bet.

    Needless to say, I'm rooting for them today
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #162
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I have a +2000 Portland western conference bet and a +4150 Bucks/Portland Finals matchup bet.

    Needless to say, I'm rooting for them today

    Well, congrats on Portland. You did a good job. Now it's a question of the number. This reminds me of way back when I had the 76ers at 30-something-1 to win the NBA finals. They won the East, then faced one of the Shaq/Kobe squads, unfortunately. I didn't think they could win, so I hedged, laying -1300 or thereabouts. Since I had hedged to make back half the bet on the Eastern finals already, I made a profit, but not much of one. The event soured me on the whole concept of taking longshots when best-of-seven series are involved. Shaq/Kobe won 4-2, I believe. The 76ers managed to ugly up the games as best they could, but winning four games was pretty much out of the question.

  3. #163
    The series odds are not nearly as bad as I thought they might be. Dan is going to make a nice, solid profit. I thought they might be as high as -800, but they're -525 or thereabouts.

    I just wanted to say this. I have my differences with Todd about what he allows on this forum, and in fact I still owe him a punch in the mouth, but his NBA and MLB threads have been solid examples of sustained, measured sports betting and what professional betting looks like. He's been very consistent in approach. His first half of his first NBA season was really strong, and then he leveled off, but there's generally a thought process and some value behind what he's doing. Nobody runs over the books with this number of daily plays, and you can see that demonstrated. But you don't have to worry about not having some kind of value with almost all of his plays.

    I don't dabble much in sports other than my specialties (I bet no NBA regular season or NHL games, for example, and a single open teaser on one NBA playoff game), but Todd is doing a good job of providing a high number of plays where you are not at any major disadvantage. There are only five or six out of all of his plays that I thought were bad ideas. You are getting a solid thought process. And while his anti-FU plays are getting predictable -- LOL -- there is indeed a built-in value there.

    His long-term results have been solid. No magic. No voodoo. Just attacking with some sense of confidence when value can be found.
    Last edited by redietz; 05-12-2019 at 06:05 PM.

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