Originally Posted by
MisterV
All flaming and bullshit aside, it is fun to read stories of great, positive variance: sort of a vicarious thrill ride.
C'mon alan, spare no details of your epic craps session.
Well, not to hijack the thread of Alan's "epic crap roll" and leave him the opportunity to comment in that thread, should he desire, I am starting a new thread from your
"fun to read stories of great variance" comment, sharing my
not so positive variance week.
Monday: lost $3325
Tuesday: won $837.50
Wednesday: lost $4650
Thursday: lost $11,162.50
Friday: lost $12,225 (back to back 5 figure losing days....uggg!)
Saturday: Did not play
Sunday: won $1375
Grand total for the week: -29,150
That is a lot of money for me, a low/mid level blackjack player to win or lose in a week. By the very definition, that is extreme variance when compared to my "accumulated EV" or expectation for the week. Without looking at records, I am pretty sure the worst 7 day period I have had in 15 years of playing for a living. Hoping not to see another week like this for a LONG while. But THAT is what variance IS!
So after this week, my best ever year of BJ results, is no longer my best ever year (to date). I am no longer running fairly significantly ahead of "accumulated EV" or expectation, but just slightly behind at $103,637.50 won vs $106,425 accumulated EV.
I posted these numbers, to impress how this works. Short term = great fluctuation, variance, swings....whatever you want to call it. Longterm = much closer to expectation (the longer the term, the better).
And that is what "accumulated "is all about. Knowing where you are at.
On the positive side...It was a strong week of accumulating EV...above average.
And tomorrow and the remaining days and weeks of this year, I hope and expect to build upon both accumulated EV and actual results, and I expect they will be pretty close, because again....That is what "accumulated EV" is all about.