more on accumualated EV. LOL

[kewlJ]

All flaming and bullshit aside, it is fun to read stories of great, positive variance: sort of a vicarious thrill ride.

C'mon alan, spare no details of your epic craps session.

Well, not to hijack the thread of Alan's "epic crap roll" and leave him the opportunity to comment in that thread, should he desire, I am starting a new thread from your "fun to read stories of great variance" comment, sharing my not so positive variance week.

Monday: lost $3325
Tuesday: won $837.50
Wednesday: lost $4650
Thursday: lost $11,162.50
Friday: lost $12,225 (back to back 5 figure losing days....uggg!)
Saturday: Did not play
Sunday: won $1375

Grand total for the week: -29,150

That is a lot of money for me, a low/mid level blackjack player to win or lose in a week. By the very definition, that is extreme variance when compared to my "accumulated EV" or expectation for the week. Without looking at records, I am pretty sure the worst 7 day period I have had in 15 years of playing for a living. Hoping not to see another week like this for a LONG while. But THAT is what variance IS!


So after this week, my best ever year of BJ results, is no longer my best ever year (to date). I am no longer running fairly significantly ahead of "accumulated EV" or expectation, but just slightly behind at $103,637.50 won vs $106,425 accumulated EV.

I posted these numbers, to impress how this works. Short term = great fluctuation, variance, swings....whatever you want to call it. Longterm = much closer to expectation (the longer the term, the better). And that is what "accumulated "is all about. Knowing where you are at.

On the positive side...It was a strong week of accumulating EV...above average. And tomorrow and the remaining days and weeks of this year, I hope and expect to build upon both accumulated EV and actual results, and I expect they will be pretty close, because again....That is what "accumulated EV" is all about.

[MaxPen]

You must have ran into those new preshuffled decks made in Malaysia or some shit.😀

[kewlJ]

You must have ran into those new preshuffled decks made in Malaysia or some shit.

Funny comment, MaxPen. No I didn't, but...….this is why we keep records (accumulated EV among them). You want to see just where you are in regards to expectation. When you have records to analyze, some of these short-term swings/variance/results, that a player might think are so extreme....to the point that said player starts making unsubstantiated claims and declares he must be, being cheated, all of the sudden don't seem so "far out there".

Real AP's and professional players, keep detailed records to analyze. Gambler's just play on the fly and then make all sorts of unsubstantiated claims like that. Now that said, you can over-analyze. So you want to be careful of that.

[The Boz]

All flaming and bullshit aside, it is fun to read stories of great, positive variance: sort of a vicarious thrill ride.

C'mon alan, spare no details of your epic craps session.

Well, not to hijack the thread of Alan's "epic crap roll" and leave him the opportunity to comment in that thread, should he desire, I am starting a new thread from your "fun to read stories of great variance" comment, sharing my not so positive variance week.

Monday: lost $3325
Tuesday: won $837.50
Wednesday: lost $4650
Thursday: lost $11,162.50
Friday: lost $12,225 (back to back 5 figure losing days....uggg!)
Saturday: Did not play
Sunday: won $1375

Grand total for the week: -29,150

That is a lot of money for me, a low/mid level blackjack player to win or lose in a week. By the very definition, that is extreme variance when compared to my "accumulated EV" or expectation for the week. Without looking at records, I am pretty sure the worst 7 day period I have had in 15 years of playing for a living. Hoping not to see another week like this for a LONG while. But THAT is what variance IS!


So after this week, my best ever year of BJ results, is no longer my best ever year (to date). I am no longer running fairly significantly ahead of "accumulated EV" or expectation, but just slightly behind at $103,637.50 won vs $106,425 accumulated EV.

I posted these numbers, to impress how this works. Short term = great fluctuation, variance, swings....whatever you want to call it. Longterm = much closer to expectation (the longer the term, the better). And that is what "accumulated "is all about. Knowing where you are at.

On the positive side...It was a strong week of accumulating EV...above average. And tomorrow and the remaining days and weeks of this year, I hope and expect to build upon both accumulated EV and actual results, and I expect they will be pretty close, because again....That is what "accumulated EV" is all about.

As always KJ, Thanks for your honesty and for sharing. You always do so knowing the shit you will take for it and how you describe it.

You have always been one of the good guys. I’m sure you will be more than willing to handle the doubters.

[blackhole]

Nothing says next weeks results couldn't be the same or even worse. What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks? When do you pull the plug and find a secure job with a pension and health benefits?

[coach belly]

What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks?

I'm interested in the logistics of losing more than 10K in one day.

How do you manage that without a casino line of credit?

Do you carry that much around on your person?

Is that a combination of cash and your chip inventory?

Do you hit your stash during the day...ATM, car trunk, home safe, safety deposit box?

[redietz]

What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks?

I'm interested in the logistics of losing more than 10K in one day.

How do you manage that without a casino line of credit?

Do you carry that much around on your person?

Is that a combination of cash and your chip inventory?

Do you hit your stash during the day...ATM, car trunk, home safe, safety deposit box?

Nobody anywhere near their right mind would answer those questions, obviously. So why even ask them?

[coach belly]

Nobody anywhere near their right mind would answer those questions, obviously. So why even ask them?

If we don't know who kj is, then what is the risk of him answering honestly without your interference?

He's already admitted to losing 10K+ per day on back-to-back days, so how does he manage that without markers?

The buy-ins have to come from somewhere.

[redietz]

Nobody anywhere near their right mind would answer those questions, obviously. So why even ask them?

If we don't know who kj is, then what is the risk of him answering honestly without your interference?

He's already admitted to losing 10K+ per day on back-to-back days, so how does he manage that without markers?

The buy-ins have to come from somewhere.

1) Given the fact that multiple people on this forum have indicated they wanted to meet kewlJ in person either for demonstrations or wagers, there is reason to believe certain posters have a real interest in knowing who he is, possibly for nefarious reasons. There is no way for kewlJ to delineate if the reasons for wanting to meet him were as posted.

2) Assuming Mr. Mendelson and Mr. Argentino's "casino contacts" are real, multiple casino management might be reading and interested in how blackjack players manage their funds. Why share that?

3) Mr. Argentino has reported ad nauseum that he knows where kewlJ lives and such. If that's the case, why would kewlJ report how he manages his funds? All it does is make him more vulnerable.


There is zero reason for him to even consider answering the questions you posed.

[redietz]

Nothing says next weeks results couldn't be the same or even worse. What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks? When do you pull the plug and find a secure job with a pension and health benefits?

That was always Chuck Yeager's main concern. (I have a signed photo of Mr. Yeager around here someplace)

[RS__]

Nothing says next weeks results couldn't be the same or even worse. What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks? When do you pull the plug and find a secure job with a pension and health benefits?

I have a feeling KJ could handle many many weeks like that and be fine.

But something you probably can’t figure out is how unlikely such a week would be, let alone several weeks like that.

[kewlJ]

If I had KJ's money to lose, I' burn mine.

I get the feeling some here think I am in a much stronger financial position than I am.

I have made a little over 1.2 million dollars as an AP. Just under a million (thanks to the last 7 days) from blackjack. That milestone has no significant meaning except to me, because early on I had a plan for that target amount from blackjack.

So anyway, living what I think is pretty modestly, and taxes and just general living expenses, have taken just about half that amount. That is my current net worth, about half that amount. And of that, about half THAT amount is currently tied up in real estate. So I don't have as much wealth as some of you think and especially liquid wealth.

Each year, I set my BR at 100k. If I should lose that amount, which I have never come close to, I could replenish that 100k bankroll from savings. If I should lose that second bankroll, then thinks get dicey. I couldn't (currently) replace that BR a third time without liquidating some stuff, or taking a loan or mortgage against real estate.

So a 30k loss in a week, is STILL a big deal to me, and my blackjack partner. Plus, I am not that far removed from when I started in 2004, with little funds, playing very low limit red chip for 3 years. Do you know that 29k that I lost last week is almost what I won for all 3 of those first low limit years (31k total). I mean that makes you think.

Nothing says next weeks results couldn't be the same or even worse. What happens if your losing slump just keeps happening for weeks? When do you pull the plug and find a secure job with a pension and health benefits?

Yes, there is something that says I will not continue losing like this. It is math. And despite your efforts of sticking voodoo pins in your KJ doll you can't change that, Blackhole. I have mathematics on my side.

[Moses]

If I had KJ's money to lose, I' burn mine.

I get the feeling some here think I am in a much stronger financial position than I am.

I have made a little over 1.2 million dollars as an AP. Just under a million (thanks to the last 7 days) from blackjack. That milestone has no significant meaning except to me, because early on I had a plan for that target amount from blackjack.

So anyway, living what I think is pretty modestly, and taxes and just general living expenses, have taken just about half that amount. That is my current net worth, about half that amount. And of that, about half THAT amount is currently tied up in real estate. So I don't have as much wealth as some of you think and especially liquid wealth.

If I'm reading correctly, you lost 10% of your cash reserves in a week? Your primary equity position is in the property you reside and that's not strong because you purchased it recently. I would assume others are contributing to rent etc., It appears you're doing well working for your money. But your money is not working for you?

[regnis]

If I had KJ's money to lose, I' burn mine.

Yes, there is something that says I will not continue losing like this. It is math. And despite your efforts of sticking voodoo pins in your KJ doll you can't change that, Blackhole. I have mathematics on my side.

Careful Kewl--that ain't a pin he's sticking in the doll.

[Moses]

If I had KJ's money to lose, I' burn mine.

[mcap]

Dude it’s almost like you’re begging for a dormant JG to write another article referencing you...

[kewlJ]

Nobody anywhere near their right mind would answer those questions, obviously. So why even ask them?

I wasn't going to. I know coach belly's game by now.

Dude it’s almost like you’re begging for a dormant JG to write another article referencing you...

The King? Do you think I really care what James thinks of me. I refer to him as "king James" in jest, but he probably is the best or one of the best AP's, especially table game AP's playing today and I respect that. Similarly to how I feel about Shacky, I wish I had a 10th of that mathematical ability. But I don't. I have what I have and do what I do and I am pretty proud of my results. If James or anyone else doesn't think much of where I am, that is their issue not mine.

I would hope "jimmy" has better things to do that read this site. But if he is reading, I happen to know from a common party, that he sort of likes me, despite what he says. He just thinks I should be more of a well rounded AP, and making more money. But that is not his call. I love what I do. I love making a living playing a game I love. How many people really get to say, they love what they do for a living?

[blackhole]

Hey dumbditz, who are you KJ's lawyer? Shut the fuck up and let the grown man (or whatever) speak for himself.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't think it matters how kewlj got the money to the casino. If he doesn't use markers he's using cash or chips or checks or wire transfers or his Mom has it in her purse or whatever. It makes no difference to me. Carrying $20,000 in cash is not unusual for people who are used to carrying cash. For anyone shocked that someone carries $10k or $20k in their jacket pocket only tells me they've never carried big cash themselves.

My question for kewlj:

Holy shit, did you get physically ill losing that fucking much in one fucked up week?

[BadBeet]

Holy shit, did you get physically ill losing that fucking much in one fucked up week?

He didn't lose. He was ahead in EV but on the wrong side of varience. LOL