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Thread: more on accumualated EV. LOL

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    stop with the "mother's purse nonsense" both you and Alan have posted in the last few hours.
    I was responding to Alan's suggestion that your mother could carry your cash. He only brought her up because you wrote some time ago that your mother was driving you. You never explained that it was for only 2 weeks and no longer, until now.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I have two banks, one a local Nevada bank and one a national type bank, where I have arranged higher than normal ATM withdraw amounts.
    To be clear, if you tap out of your chip inventory on hand for the casino you are visiting, then you hit the ATM and buy back in with cash? Is that correct?

    Understanding that you are playing green & black chips w/$25-$200 spread, and should you win $10K or so at a single table or group of nearby tables...don't they ask you to color up before you leave? Do you typically comply, or just carry 100 or more chips away from the table, and then stash them in your pocket and leave?
    I think I have mentioned the situation with my mother. Like I said, knowing that I prefer not to drive, she offered to assume that role. I even was considering and even started to teach her some basics of the elementary machine play that my partner used to handle. But it just wasn't a good fit. I love my Mom dearly, but didn't want to spend that amount of time with her. I also had a close friend that wanted to assume that role, but decided against that as well. I am quite capable of driving myself, despite that I don't care for driving and have been for almost 6 months now. In addition, I made the decision to move away from that elementary machine play activity that my partner handled as the casinos have dramatically tightened up on the free play mailer/offers in the past year or two, so the timing was right for that.

    Your details of my approach are mostly incorrect. First I don't have a set spread. I play different spreads and limits at different locations, based on what I have determined is that particular casinos comfort or tolerance level. It is different for different casinos and even different days/shifts at the same casino. Without getting into specifics of that, I currently play spreads of $25-$300 (low end), up to spreads of $50-$600 at a couple larger casinos that handle that well. On occasion during busy holiday or big even periods I might even spread $100-$800 and on very rare occasions, even bigger.

    But in general $500 is a key max bet number that I want to stay below at many locations. $500 is a key threshold level where interest intensifies at many locations.

    I only use a chip inventory to enter the game, not for all play, even at that table. To have enough chips for all your play at any casino would require six, seven eight, thousand dollars in chips at each casino in your rotation. And since it is best not to have chips over $500 denominations (casinos sometimes ask for ID for larger chips), that would require buckets of chips for all locations.


    What I want to do is enter the game with chips, avoiding that first interaction with pit, the buy-in and pit approval. This only requires 2-3 hundred in chips at each location. A small handful of green and black chips works nicely. Should I lose that, I continue playing with cash. This too has a plus side as well as negative. On the plus side, pulling out cash after losing your initial stakes, looks like a typical player chasing losses. On the negative side, this will (most likely) require an interaction with pit at this point.

    But in all probability, if you have lost initial stakes, count has probably risen and you are betting bigger and there is a good chance you have been noticed already. All a chip inventory does is help you initially get into the game with minimal interaction. If the count never risen (bigger bets), you may get in and out with no interaction, but that is fairly rare and not even desirable, because if this scenario occurs, you probably didn't make any money anyway.

    Next, while one of the goals is to avoid coloring up at the table (pit interaction), sometimes that can't be avoided. Sometimes I abruptly exit, if the count tanks and/or at the shuffle up after showing spread, and I scoop up a handful of chips and bolt. There is almost always an attempt from dealer to get me to color up, but I just decline as I am walking away (not even breaking stride). This is unnatural, but I haven't figured a better way of yet. But when I have accumulated more than a handful of chips, this becomes too extreme. At that point you have to go ahead and color up. In other words, if you have won too much, you have to color up. Sort of a bad problem to have. I usually utter something like "great I won back what I lost at XXX casino this morning", although that kind of spoken "cover" is lost on surveillance so has minimal effect. But it doesn't hurt to try.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    In furtherance of Coach's question, when you do win, I assume that you can't just walk out with all chips. At some point you do have to go to the cage and convert some to cash or you wouldn't be able to live. Is there a process for that. At 100K profit a year you have to be going to the cage fairly often I would think. Do you have others make the conversion (that is what I used to do). I got in trouble years ago after a big win at Paris. I cashed just a small amount at the cage there and tried to cash the rest at Bally. I got pulled aside and questioned. They didn't really buy the argument that I was not done for the night and just was going to play at Bally after the big hand at Paris. But they didn't really have anything either as where was the crime?
    As I just stated since you posted this question, yes if you win too much, you are kind of stuck coloring up to bigger chips. Winning too much is a good problem to have. You deal with it as best you can. If forced to color up request nothing larger that $500 denomination. Bigger than that can create extra issues at the cage, especially smaller casinos that will call to the pit to verify. So if you get nothing above $500, you don't have to cash out at the cage right then and there. You can cash out sometime (even next visit) later. You can even break up the cash out.

  3. #43
    I never answered your question Alan, in part because I was so disappointed that you chose to sink to Singer's level with your comments about my mother.

    But, no I didn't freak out about losing that amount. While that was a new high amount for me to lose in a weeks time (I guess that would be better stated as a new "low"), I completely understand variance and swings involved....even wild swings in each direction. That is precisely why I track EV so I know where I am at all times.

    And it goes both ways. A few years ago, after a very slow start to the year, I think I was down 30k after 3-4 months, I went on a $115k run in a 5 week period. Went from down 30k to up 85k in 5 weeks! VERY EXTREME, but these swings happen. That is why you need to be bankrolled for this variance and why you track expectation to know where you are at all times.


    Ok gotta go to work. New week, hopefully a very different week. I could go for a nice calm $2000 in EV and $2000 win week.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 10-29-2018 at 10:14 AM.

  4. #44
    More bs kew. Saying you know where you are EV-wise doesn't mean a thing when it comes to winning and losing. And when you keep saying it does only proves how deep you are into gambler's fallacy. No one wins because they're behind just because they have a bunch of "accumulated EV", just as no one loses simply because they're into "-EV accumulation" territory.

    This is only one of the methods a real casino player can tell you're nothing but a needy anonymous online character who's concocted a story for storey-telling's sake.

    Wise up....and ask mommy for a few bucks so you can go eat dinner with the skinny gay Thai boy waiter at Lotus of Siam.

  5. #45
    20K in $100 chips is 200 chips
    20k in $500 checks is 40 chips
    20k in $1000 checks is 20 chips
    etc...

    Last I checked, when you buy in at a table with $100 check or more they say something to the floor man just the same as when you buy in for cash... Buying in with a $500 check they will do just the same and they may ask where you got it... Especially with a 1K 5K or 25K chip. Plus, wagering a $100 chip or more they usually tell the floor man.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I got in trouble years ago after a big win at Paris. I cashed just a small amount at the cage there and tried to cash the rest at Bally.
    You can use and/or cash out Paris' chips at Bally's ?
    Bally and Paris are the SAME casino under CET.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I got in trouble years ago after a big win at Paris. I cashed just a small amount at the cage there and tried to cash the rest at Bally.
    You can use and/or cash out Paris' chips at Bally's ?
    Bally and Paris are the SAME casino under CET.
    Is that still true? It was years ago, but now each show VP points earned as separate on the machines. Years ago they would accumulate when moving back and forth. Sure they count like all CZR casinos toward any daily bonuses, but I think this changed years ago. They even used to have Bally’s/Paris on TITO’s but again that isn’t true today.

  8. #48
    Kewlj I'm glad you didn't become physically ill losing that kind of money so quickly. I would have.

    Now, you need to get that chip off your shoulder and stop thinking there's a conspiracy of hate aimed at you.

    You wrote:

    I never answered your question Alan, in part because I was so disappointed that you chose to sink to Singer's level with your comments about my mother.

    Read again what I wrote. I was not taking a swipe at you or your mother. I simply said it didn't matter how you got the money in and listed possible examples. And frankly having your mother carry the cash isn't a bad idea because how many crooks think women don't carry the cash but men do.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post

    You can use and/or cash out Paris' chips at Bally's ?
    Bally and Paris are the SAME casino under CET.
    Is that still true? It was years ago, but now each show VP points earned as separate on the machines. Years ago they would accumulate when moving back and forth. Sure they count like all CZR casinos toward any daily bonuses, but I think this changed years ago. They even used to have Bally’s/Paris on TITO’s but again that isn’t true today.
    They have separate chips and for TR they are separate casinos for promotions and awards but they are the same business unit.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by The Boz View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post

    Bally and Paris are the SAME casino under CET.
    Is that still true? It was years ago, but now each show VP points earned as separate on the machines. Years ago they would accumulate when moving back and forth. Sure they count like all CZR casinos toward any daily bonuses, but I think this changed years ago. They even used to have Bally’s/Paris on TITO’s but again that isn’t true today.
    They have separate chips and for TR they are separate casinos for promotions and awards but they are the same business unit.
    Thanks for the clarification Alan. I’m sure you remember what I was talking about years ago.

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I got in trouble years ago after a big win at Paris. I cashed just a small amount at the cage there and tried to cash the rest at Bally.
    You can use and/or cash out Paris' chips at Bally's ?
    Bally and Paris are the SAME casino under CET.
    I am not sure if you can now. But you could years ago.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Kewlj I'm glad you didn't become physically ill losing that kind of money so quickly.
    Too late. The anonymous character kew's created for his "bj pro" fantasy is already sicker than a billy goat who just ate an agitated porcupine.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    New week, hopefully a very different week. I could go for a nice calm $2000 in EV and $2000 win week.
    Are you being sarcastic here? It will take you 15 weeks to make up last week's loss.

    I'm curious to know if you will now bet bigger to make up for the previous loss (assuming your accumulated EV strategy still holds)?

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    New week, hopefully a very different week. I could go for a nice calm $2000 in EV and $2000 win week.
    Are you being sarcastic here? It will take you 15 weeks to make up last week's loss.

    I'm curious to know if you will now bet bigger to make up for the previous loss (assuming your accumulated EV strategy still holds)?
    Surely you’ve read enough posts to figure out that your curiosity if he’ll now bet more is retarded.
    #FreeTyde

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    New week, hopefully a very different week. I could go for a nice calm $2000 in EV and $2000 win week.
    Are you being sarcastic here? It will take you 15 weeks to make up last week's loss.

    I'm curious to know if you will now bet bigger to make up for the previous loss (assuming your accumulated EV strategy still holds)?
    Of course he is not. That’s what you don’t get and why you get so much shit on here. 2k is his average week in value. And over time that will average out to 100k a year. Simple math.

    Give any of us 2k is expected value and we will make 2k over time. What part of that don’t you get.

    He can’t just pull 30k in EV out of his ass (Sorry KJ) or he would do it week after week. He finds 2k out there week after week. Unlike you or Singer he won’t chase loses. He knows the math, he will get it back.

    What part of that is so hard for you to understand? Honestly Alan, I would love to know. He’s not a degenerate gambler.

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Kewlj I'm glad you didn't become physically ill losing that kind of money so quickly.
    Too late. The anonymous character kew's created for his "bj pro" fantasy is already sicker than a billy goat who just ate an agitated porcupine.
    LMAO. It made me sick and it's not even my money. Id rather give Singer half and let him beat the crap out of me.

  17. #57
    Boz wrote:

    Give any of us 2k is expected value and we will make 2k over time. What part of that don’t you get.

    What I "don't get" is that he dumped almost $30,000 in one week but is expecting to make $2,000 a week in the future and still earn $100,000?

    Something doesn't add up... like the negative $30,000 lost last week PLUS the $2,000 of "expected profit" which he didn't make last week which means he's actually $32,000 behind in his $100,000 plan.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Boz wrote:

    Give any of us 2k is expected value and we will make 2k over time. What part of that don’t you get.

    What I "don't get" is that he dumped almost $30,000 in one week but is expecting to make $2,000 a week in the future and still earn $100,000?

    Something doesn't add up... like the negative $30,000 lost last week PLUS the $2,000 of "expected profit" which he didn't make last week which means he's actually $32,000 behind in his $100,000 plan.
    Agreed, but again, 52 weeks is a year. You are again putting a starting and ending time on it. KJ has said over and over it’s the long run. Some 2k EV weeks will be 3k and others will not be. But he will make it back over time.

    He has shown over the years it averages out if and only if you are playing at an advantage.

    It goes back to you and Singers obsession with win/loss goals and sessions. Total nonsense if you are playing with an advantage. And I do think deep down you understand this.

  19. #59
    Unfortunately for you long term APs the rest of the world is short term oriented. Rents and mortgages are paid minthly, along with utilities and car payments and credit cards. The IRS operates on a yearly basis. And no one uses EV as a medium of exchange.

    You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Unfortunately for you long term APs the rest of the world is short term oriented. Rents and mortgages are paid minthly, along with utilities and car payments and credit cards. The IRS operates on a yearly basis. And no one uses EV as a medium of exchange.

    You might say that Singer and I operate in the real world.
    Or without the required bankroll to survive the key word.... variance.

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