When do "must hit" slots really hit?

[Dan Druff]

Played a must hit slot for the first time last night.

This was a "must hit 5k" machine.

For those who aren't familiar, these are progressive machines with two jackpots which absolutely will hit before a specified number. They've been around for awhile, probably since the late 2000s. A must hit $5000 machine will have a jackpot which has to hit before it reaches $5000, and usually the second one will hit before it reaches $500. (It is stated on the machine the latest each jackpot "must hit".)

Obviously if you were to walk by a must hit $5000 machine with the counter at $4998, you'd be a fool not to sit down and run it until it hits, since you would have a guaranteed large win (there's no way you could lose anywhere close to $5000 in getting the meter to move up those final $2.)

After the jackpot hits, it resets to a lower value. The machine I played resets to $4000 after hitting.

The value where it "must hit" is auto-determined by the machine, via random number generator, every time it resets. So the machine knows the entire time when it will "hit", but the player doesn't know until it happens.

My question is the distribution of when the jackpot hits. I don't believe that it's randomly distributed evenly between $4000 and $5000 on the game I play, for example. Obviously it's to the casino's advantage to have the jackpot hit as late as possible. So I'm pretty convinced that it's disproportionately distributed at the end (by a wide margin), but to what extreme are we talking about?

I ask this because mine hit at $4999.31, which was laughable. Needless to say, I lost money attempting to get there. I can only imagine how much people will collectively lose on that machine for awhile, now that it's back at $4000.

Is it possible that my $4999.31 wasn't unusual, and perhaps something like 40% of all jackpots hit that late?

Anyone know the answer?

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

[jbjb]

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

As usual, you've got no clue what you're taking about. These machines can easily be figured out on when to jump on them and guarantee a profit. If Todd does some internet searching, he'll find his answers.

[Bill Yung]

I imagine that it's skewed enough to discourage virtually all of the slot mechanics. A casino can't survive with "ploppies" who don't get any of the jackpots. There are well-know "extinction levels" after which people just stop playing, or go elsewhere.

You can be sure that Mickey doesn't tell us most of what goes on with the slots.

[kewlJ]

I don't play these games. As a matter of fact, I am just about out of all machine play.

But what is clear is that Alan, doesn't and never has understood the concept of playing with an advantage. Alan gets hung up on the short term. Playing with almost any advantage on any play doesn't guarantee a win in the short term. But if you do that same advantage play over and over, it will guarantee a win in the long-term.


This is just a distinction between Alan and AP's. Alan and most gamblers think short-term. AP's think in the long-term.

[Bill Yung]

Alan didn't spend his life alone in a casino thinking he had any real edge.

[Rob.Singer]

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman.

I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

[MisterV]

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

[Rob.Singer]

Played a must hit slot for the first time last night.

This was a "must hit 5k" machine.

For those who aren't familiar, these are progressive machines with two jackpots which absolutely will hit before a specified number. They've been around for awhile, probably since the late 2000s. A must hit $5000 machine will have a jackpot which has to hit before it reaches $5000, and usually the second one will hit before it reaches $500. (It is stated on the machine the latest each jackpot "must hit".)

Obviously if you were to walk by a must hit $5000 machine with the counter at $4998, you'd be a fool not to sit down and run it until it hits, since you would have a guaranteed large win (there's no way you could lose anywhere close to $5000 in getting the meter to move up those final $2.)

After the jackpot hits, it resets to a lower value. The machine I played resets to $4000 after hitting.

The value where it "must hit" is auto-determined by the machine, via random number generator, every time it resets. So the machine knows the entire time when it will "hit", but the player doesn't know until it happens.

My question is the distribution of when the jackpot hits. I don't believe that it's randomly distributed evenly between $4000 and $5000 on the game I play, for example. Obviously it's to the casino's advantage to have the jackpot hit as late as possible. So I'm pretty convinced that it's disproportionately distributed at the end (by a wide margin), but to what extreme are we talking about?

I ask this because mine hit at $4999.31, which was laughable. Needless to say, I lost money attempting to get there. I can only imagine how much people will collectively lose on that machine for awhile, now that it's back at $4000.

Is it possible that my $4999.31 wasn't unusual, and perhaps something like 40% of all jackpots hit that late?

Anyone know the answer?

What was the jackpot at when you started playing it?

[Alan Mendelson]

And that rap kew is exactly why you are a total phony. Nothing is ever "guaranteed" and the fact that you say such a stupid thing only goes to show how you're nothing more than an anonymous internet forum showman. I dare you to repeat that to any casino manager.

The casino manager would likely respond as follows:

"The casino offers games all of which have an advantage which favors the casino. Over time they all give us a nice profit. Oh sure, there's variance but our success is never really in doubt."

So if the house can make such an unchallenged claim, why couldn't a player if he / she has a similar advantage over the house?

Excellent question!!!!!

I'll offer a couple of possible reasons why.

First, the casino has perhaps 2,000 or more games in play. How many games is the AP playing?

Second, the casino has a bigger bankroll. Do you really think a $100,000 AP bankroll is going to outlast a casino's bankroll?

The mistake that APs make (and understand this all of you gaming experts) is that the edge you think you have on one game isn't the same that the casino has on 2,000 games.

[Barney]

This is Barney,

Must hit slut machine devices are very fickle thing and extremely dangerous sluts. I have had many a fights with old ladies (one hit me with her oxygen tank) when these things become advantageous to play. According to my bestest friend Max Planck he told me "Herr Barnard, die Maschinen der Schlampenmaschine, die getroffen werden müssen, basieren auf der dreieckigen Reihe von Punkten, bei denen die höchsten Zahlen viel mehr gewichtet werden als die niedrigeren. Es basiert auf der dreieckigen Reihe, wenn 1, 3, 6, 10, 15 usw. Es ist am meisten wie bei Bernard, dass Sie möglicherweise warten müssen, bis er sich der Trefferzahl nähert, bevor er trifft. Es sei denn, Sie haben Glück, zu schlagen, bevor Ihre Gelder auslaufen. "

I hope this clarifies this most greatest question.

[The Boz]

Singer actually asked the only important question, what did you start at? Then you need the meter movement, the base game return and you can start to calculate it.

Mickey and others have written so much on these machines with a road map on how to GUARANTEE a win. Or at what point you are playing with an advantage that will pay off over time, even with the occasional misfire.

It’s all Math, something that Alan just doesn’t understand. But he’s quick to get excited when someone loses on a game. And in this case, by Dan’s own admission, he really doesn’t know if he even had an advantage.

Maybe Mickey will answer but I think he has stated he is done trying to add quality information here as the site has become a joke. Not speaking for him but who can blame him?

Ironic that Dan is the one who needs help now after allowing it to get this bad here.

[Dan Druff]

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

[The Boz]

Dan thank you for posting this. Everyone who follows and believes the claims of the "must hit by APs" needs to read what you wrote.

Yes, APs need luck. They don't know if they will win unless they're making the very last bet in the progression.

Simple hypothetical math Alan,if the meter moves a penny for every $1 played and major must hit by $5000. What must the machine be at to guarantee a minimum $1000 profit, assuming Zero base game hits, which is impossible.

If you need multiple choice let me know.

And no luck involved if the number is right.

Probably shouldn’t even be asking this, a smart man said never wise up a Chump.

[jbjb]

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

See if you can find any info in this thread:

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...Must-Hits-quot

[The Boz]

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

Dan, what you haven’t answered is meter movement. It varies by machine including some that only move when you win.

You are a math guy in poker, why not think of a formula needed to make the determination?

And don’t be sure $4950 is always Clearly +EV.

[MaxPen]

Mickey has pretty much already covered this topic pretty extensively. You need to know meter start amounts, must hit by amounts, meter movement, and machine hold to get an answer that is specific.
Mickey has even discussed certain machine that are designed to hit at the latter part of there appeared range.

[Dan Druff]

Let's get back on track here.

jbjb told me to search the answer for this. I already did, and while I found a few discussions, I wasn't coming up with the actual number you're looking for regarding the must hit $5000 machines.

I realize it's also influenced by where the second jackpot is (the $500 one), but I'm just looking for a rough answer.

Clearly playing it at $4995 is a guaranteed profit, no matter how bad you run (though you're highly unlikely to find this).

Clearly playing it when it's $4950 is +EV.

Clearly playing it when it's at $4700 is -EV.

So what about in between, such as the upper $4800s?

Dan, what you haven’t answered is meter movement. It varies by machine including some that only move when you win.

You are a math guy in poker, why not think of a formula needed to make the determination?

And don’t be sure $4950 is always Clearly +EV.

I didn't know that meter movement varies that much from machine to machine of the same must-hit level. I am new to this.

But still, even knowing meter movement, you are still missing a variable -- the hold of the machine. Otherwise you still don't have enough information. Meter movement alone can only be used to figure out the point where you're in guaranteed win territory, but finding such a machine would be a fluke nowadays.

Have you seen a $5k must hit where $4950 isn't +EV? It's not guaranteed win, but I would assume it would have to be +EV.

[Dan Druff]

I'm deleting some of the recent troll/arguing posts in this thread.

Please take it elsewhere.

[Dan Druff]

I feel that rigging the must-hit number to the very end of the range should be illegal.

It isn't, but it should be. Highly unethical, to be honest.

It's not even necessary to do. They could easily give the ploppies a chance by making it completely random where it hits from its starting point of $4000 to its ending point of $5000. Then they could adjust the odds of the rest of the machine accordingly, to where they still get the desired house hold.

I'm guessing it's severely weighted to hit in the final $10, probably weighted even more to hit in the final $3. There are probably very rare fluke hits before $4850, but for the most part, I'm guessing it almost never happens.

I was watching ploppies running the other machines with meters at $4630 and $335, and I just felt so bad for them. They were chasing something which had almost no chance to hit (even the small one), yet their reward for a fluke early hit wasn't even that large.

The problem is that there's no regulation for this sort of thing, because jackpots don't have to hit at any particular frequency. Remember that machine at MGM which took over 20 years to hit? So offering a "must hit" jackpot supposedly at least gives that guarantee to the player, and appears player-friendly. In reality, it's anything but.