When do "must hit" slots really hit?

[mickeycrimm]

Yesterday morning I came across an Ainsworth 5K must hit at $4875. The Ainworths are random so it's a different scenario. From that entry point the average hit would be 4937.50 + 62.50 = 4937.50. Then I clocked the meter. I always confirm meter speed. It ran at only 0.18%. That was bad news.

1/.0018 = 555.56
555.56 X 62.5 = 34,722

I always figure the drop at 20%. So 20% of 34,722 is $6944. So it was a no go. I'll be back over today to see where the meter is at or if someone has it locked up. With the slow meter speed I need a number no lower than 4926. The average hit would be halfway to 5K or 4963. That would be a $37 meter increase. Thats about a 20K wager so a cost of 4K.

Another thing to use the meter movement for is insuring you have enough money on you to spin it off even if it runs all the way to the top. It's pretty easy. In this case:

555.56 X 74 = 41,111
41,111 X 20% = $8,222

[The Boz]

I spoke to Dr. Itch earlier and he said it’s legal for them to heavily weight it to $4,990+, as long as there is SOME chance (it can be miniscule) for it to hit before. I forgot to ask about whether the machine pre-determines the hit point or if it’s random every spin....although I don’t think that’d even matter.

I believe you are talking about DRich as Mickey was. Although Dr Itch would be a cool forum name.

I always understood it as it has to be able to be hit on every spin, but it is weighted heavily against it. So hitting the major at $4001 is about the same chance as seeing 18 YO’s in a row.

[jj5957]

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

The only thing I have to go on so far is DRich, a member of WoV, and a video game designer, said it's legal to weight the must hit progressives and if he were to design such a game he would weight it to run to the high side.

The must hit progressives are the most prevalent short term advantage slots you will find in casinos across the country. Practically every casino has them and the ploppies give them a lot of action. They play them way to low but still get their share of jackpots because of the randomness of when they hit. The River Dragons and variants are new and when the ploppies get on them at a mid-range number they think they have a chance to hit the progressive but in reality they don't unless they run it all the way to the top. And that would cost a hell of a lot more than the progressive pays.

I watched a situation not long ago at Couer D'Alene Casino in Worley, Idaho. A couple got on a River Dragon one morning at $4812. I had been watching that machine to see if it would develop a playable number. By that afternoon they had run it up to $4900 but were on their phones. A few more people showed up. Looked to me like people with money to invest on the play. I happened to come by about 3 AM as they were waiting on the hand pay, getting congratulated by the floor people, but I didn't see any smiles on their faces. They looked worn out and forlorn. These kind of people don't know anything about writing off losses against wins. They got their butts kicked and one of them had to eat a W2-G.

This is why I consider the game to be immoral. They thought they had a chance to hit it with every spin.

Did you happen to see what the jackpot amount was?

I grabbed a River Dragon minor at just over $486 yesterday with a 0.45% meter but I was wondering if that was a good idea based on this thread. I hit it at $499.14 and fortunately made money due to a couple of good bonus rounds.

[mickeycrimm]

But here's another question:

Is it legal for them to completely prevent the machine from hitting below $4990?

Or do they have to allow it to hit in the entire range, but just weight it so heavily in the $4990s that it virtually won't hit any other time?

Personally I feel either way is BS, and is very misleading to the average player. But I'd still like to know the answer.

The only thing I have to go on so far is DRich, a member of WoV, and a video game designer, said it's legal to weight the must hit progressives and if he were to design such a game he would weight it to run to the high side.

The must hit progressives are the most prevalent short term advantage slots you will find in casinos across the country. Practically every casino has them and the ploppies give them a lot of action. They play them way to low but still get their share of jackpots because of the randomness of when they hit. The River Dragons and variants are new and when the ploppies get on them at a mid-range number they think they have a chance to hit the progressive but in reality they don't unless they run it all the way to the top. And that would cost a hell of a lot more than the progressive pays.

I watched a situation not long ago at Couer D'Alene Casino in Worley, Idaho. A couple got on a River Dragon one morning at $4812. I had been watching that machine to see if it would develop a playable number. By that afternoon they had run it up to $4900 but were on their phones. A few more people showed up. Looked to me like people with money to invest on the play. I happened to come by about 3 AM as they were waiting on the hand pay, getting congratulated by the floor people, but I didn't see any smiles on their faces. They looked worn out and forlorn. These kind of people don't know anything about writing off losses against wins. They got their butts kicked and one of them had to eat a W2-G.

This is why I consider the game to be immoral. They thought they had a chance to hit it with every spin.

Did you happen to see what the jackpot amount was?

I grabbed a River Dragon minor at just over $486 yesterday with a 0.45% meter but I was wondering if that was a good idea based on this thread. I hit it at $499.14 and fortunately made money due to a couple of good bonus rounds.

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

[Bill Yung]

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

[The Boz]

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

[Rob.Singer]

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

[The Boz]

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement is going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

Only on the WMS machines where the meter only moves after a win. The others that I know of are a set movement based on coin in. Yes it does take time and money to determine that rate, and it can have different settings on the same machine in different local actions. It really is a simple math game. And Mickey used a higher than average hold of 20% on the base game to be safe and allow for a bad run.

As for how often you find these games, if they are part of an overall strategy and you have other options in a casino it’s a nice extra. Sitting around watching a few machines, probably not so much.

And the more information like this is being discussed, the more people out there looking for them. The problem is many “think” they have an advantage when they don’t, and they don’t have the bankroll. A little knowledge can be very dangerous.

[Rob.Singer]

Absolutely, there's a lot of people playing these progressives that have little to no clue. That quarter Viper large bank of machines at MGM went on for years, and it was always a bad bet.

mickey says he finds and wins on these type machines every day really, and many appear to be in the most obscure places. I find this highly improbable--that he's able to swoop in from the road, where virtually no one else who knows these things ever steps in front of him, finds a daily play or two, then sits down and wins while never losing. Almost every day according to him.

Sounds like he should be flying his private jet into these places instead of driving and sleeping in a car with 110,000 miles on it, no?

mickey if I got any of this wrong, correct me please.

[MisterV]

Mickey seems to have found a niche that he can mine, and to good effect.

It is odd though to think people can AP slots; seems almost counter-intuitive.

[Bill Yung]

... what it would be like to have Mickey's AP knowledge.

It's knowledge without any possible understanding, and hence any real satisfaction. Just a bunch of numbers taken nowhere to the nth degree down your own little rabbit-hole forever. Heck, he said it, himself: one simplistic equation, here of edge.

If Mickey couldn't tell anyone from the get-go about how long you have to wait for a must-hit payout, which more or less negates the whole AP-slot thing, then what else hasn't he told us that should also be plain as day?

He wants this to be an AP-board, but he let Dan go down the slot-hole, and, will, again. All because Mickey doesn't want everyone to know the truth.

All those burger-flippers WOULD'VE BEEN AP's where it so easy.

Moses asked me what it would take for me to believe in KJ. It's not what it would take for me to believe, but about how little it takes for gamblers to want and have to just believe it all.

[mickeycrimm]

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

Could you write something that's not gibberish? What do you mean by "how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff?"

[mickeycrimm]

It ran them all the way to the top. My playable number on the 500 is 487.

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

I start at numbers that I know will show a profit. And luck is for suckers like you. And...and....you don't have a goddam thing about these plays figured out, doofus.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey, you give away too much information between the lines.

If you were making so much money doing what you claim to be doing, and the machines were so available, then you would be starting at much higher numbers than the rest.

As it is, these sorts of games still seem to require a lot of luck, even when you can find a machine to play, when you happen to find one that's open just like any other "ploppie". Perhaps, you are a "ploppie" but don't know it?

It's funny you not telling anyone here about how long one must wait for one of those machines to "payoff". Most of us had already figured that out.

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

[mickeycrimm]

Absolutely, there's a lot of people playing these progressives that have little to no clue. That quarter Viper large bank of machines at MGM went on for years, and it was always a bad bet.

mickey says he finds and wins on these type machines every day really, and many appear to be in the most obscure places. I find this highly improbable--that he's able to swoop in from the road, where virtually no one else who knows these things ever steps in front of him, finds a daily play or two, then sits down and wins while never losing. Almost every day according to him.

Sounds like he should be flying his private jet into these places instead of driving and sleeping in a car with 110,000 miles on it, no?

mickey if I got any of this wrong, correct me please.

The mystery progressives are just one of many different games I play for profit. I've made a few thousand dollars on them this year so they are a small part of my overall earn. I don't sit around waiting on mystery progressive plays. I'm busy on other machines. What you don't know, Rob, is there are a myriad of other exploitable slots in the casinos of this country. I walk right past the MP's going to other machines so it's easy to check the numbers. When I get a number I play.

Now, as for sleeping in my car. I'm quite prepared to sleep in my car. Having lived in extreme cold climates for most of my life I carry survival gear in my trunk in case of a breakdown in an isolated area. I haven't had to sleep in my car yet but I'm prepared.

I like the hotels. My hotel bill has sunk like a stone this year. In the screenshot you can see I'm a Diamond member of the Choice Privileges loyalty program. I've bought 113 nights from them so far this year and I've gotten about 50 free nights. You can see the points on the left. I've been a steady customer with them so I average accumulating 4600 points per paid night. Every 8000 points is a free night. It averages to every 11 nights I buy I get 6 free nights.

I'm also getting comped rooms at the casinos now. I'm in a comped room tonight and I'll be in a comped room this weekend. So like I said, my hotel bill has been drastically reduced.

Note: If you know where to look I've got Win and Frugal on my laptop.

[monet]

Comped Rooms are nice MC but why show everyone your Member Number?

[Rob.Singer]

What the fuck are you even saying here? He gives his starting numbers that remove “luck” from the equation. He has no good reason to help others, but he does. Why would he walk away from a profitable machine to risk letting it go higher and miss out of a profit? Makes no sense.

Payoff? He tells everyone the machines in question won’t payoff until right before the top.

Your hatred of the effort Mick and others put in makes no sense. It’s a job like many others. And some find ways to be the best at their job. It’s takes hard work, intellect and common sense, things you just can’t teach.

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

Didn't Dan say the last portion of his meter ran slower than when he sat down? Or are there different types of progressive machines?

Regardless of how well you maintain your car, you should never trust that one with that many miles on it will not give you problems. However, I see the point now. No one depends on you, so if you get stuck for a few days, no big deal.

[mickeycrimm]

I can't disagree with how people who find and play these machines can probably make a profit. But exactly how often can these "ready to pay off" machines be found? And how would anyone know whether the last 50c of meter movement isn't going to require 10,000 credits of play to hit or not--esp. In Indian casinos? Didn't I read in this thread that the movement is not linear?

What's the rule in Nevada on these progressives? Are they required to move the meters at the same rate throughout? If so, where are these machines and I'll start monitoring them and jump into the seats before anyone else gets there.

The meters run at the same constant speed.

Mystery Progressives are in practically every casino in the country so you won't have far to look. That also means you can't be everywhere and get every play. Now, it seems you have come around to believing that machine AP is possible. I've given a pretty good clinic in this thread and the mystery progressive thread. But you will have to learn to deal with a myriad of different mystery progressives with different meter speeds and playable numbers. What's your game plan to clock meters and calculate playable numbers?

Didn't Dan say the last portion of his meter ran slower than when he sat down? Or are there different types of progressive machines?

Regardless of how well you maintain your car, you should never trust that one with that many miles on it will not give you problems. However, I see the point now. No one depends on you, so if you get stuck for a few days, no big deal.

Dan has only a few posts in this thread. All you had to do was go over them to see if he said the meter slowed down. But I can save you the trouble. No AP has ever reported a meter slowing down on them on a mystery progressive. I've never seen it. If there were any meters that slowed down it would all be calculated into the play anyway. Rob, I'm afraid you're just a little to slow for getting involved in AP play. Best stick to your marty.

[Alan Mendelson]

Mickeycrimm I thought Dan indicated the meter slowed down. He wrote "So ignoring which was freeplay and which wasn't, I lost $4300 moving the meter $110, and $2500 moving it the final $19. I also wondered if that was rigged in some way (or if that's even legal.)"

[BadBeet]

Mickeycrimm I thought Dan indicated the meter slowed down. He wrote "So ignoring which was freeplay and which wasn't, I lost $4300 moving the meter $110, and $2500 moving it the final $19. I also wondered if that was rigged in some way (or if that's even legal.)"

There is a difference between "lost money" and "play through." The meters move based on coin in, not amount won or lost.