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Thread: New question for AP's...

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    KJ, there are a few casual gamblers who are here to enhance their game, blackjack included. There are also those who just want to learn, period. I fall into both categories.

    I see the logic of both sides and the different reasoning as to how Moses and you would play 16 vs 10. Since I am not a card counter, though my buddy is (and we casually gambler as a pair), I played by the statedgy card and always hit on 16 vs 10. Before posting, I did a little research and found out that a multi card (three or more) 16 vs 10 should be played as a hold. Interesting. I never knew this.

    Just because many individuals do not respond to blackjack posts, it does not mean the information is not being absorbed.

    Heck, on my last visit to Vegas a few months ago I was berated by the guy next to me on how I played a certain hand. I played it by the book. I even showed him the strategy card but that was not good enough. He left the table shaking his head. After he left, I looked at the other gamblers and said, “Let’s have some fun!”, Oh, for the record, I woke up at 5 AM the next morning and reviewed four different websites about the play. No author strayed from the card.

    Keep the informational posts coming.
    I read a rule once on 16 vs. Ten that went like this:

    Hit a 16 that has a 6 and also contains a 6,7,8 or 9. Stand on the rest. These would all have to have 3 cards or more. Don't know how accurate it is.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    Now, I wonder that there is any reliable literature about high-level blackjack income.
    It's like most anything else. It's just a job.
    Ha. When pigs fly, and V stops using.

    You'll never see a "burger flipper" waste the rest of his/her time on the internet to wallow in the fantasy details of "burger flipping". This is how weird gambling is, no matter how much or in which way.
    Life is a gamble. Numbers don't lie. People do. I went into McD for breakfast. My bill was $2.54. I gave the cashier $20.54. I thought his brain was going to break trying to figure out the change. Ask him for a refill on coffee. I could've driven home and made a pot in the time it took him to turn around and pour. So I don't recall having many conversations with fast food employees about blackjack.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Deech View Post
    KJ, there are a few casual gamblers who are here to enhance their game, blackjack included. There are also those who just want to learn, period. I fall into both categories.

    I see the logic of both sides and the different reasoning as to how Moses and you would play 16 vs 10. Since I am not a card counter, though my buddy is (and we casually gambler as a pair), I played by the statedgy card and always hit on 16 vs 10. Before posting, I did a little research and found out that a multi card (three or more) 16 vs 10 should be played as a hold. Interesting. I never knew this.

    Just because many individuals do not respond to blackjack posts, it does not mean the information is not being absorbed.

    Heck, on my last visit to Vegas a few months ago I was berated by the guy next to me on how I played a certain hand. I played it by the book. I even showed him the strategy card but that was not good enough. He left the table shaking his head. After he left, I looked at the other gamblers and said, “Let’s have some fun!”, Oh, for the record, I woke up at 5 AM the next morning and reviewed four different websites about the play. No author strayed from the card.

    Keep the informational posts coming.
    I read a rule once on 16 vs. Ten that went like this:

    Hit a 16 that has a 6 and also contains a 6,7,8 or 9. Stand on the rest. These would all have to have 3 cards or more. Don't know how accurate it is.
    Mick. I've spent hours researching charts and viewing logs of hands on this very subject. For one thing it's a high frequency decision by comparison to most other hands. The bold statements by armchair QBs who typically did no research. Perhaps you've heard of the Ill 18? 16v10 carries the 2nd highest priority. Insurance is #1. Again, I'm only speaking to no surrender pitch games because I don't play shoes. The results strongly indicate to stand when the count is positive. Hit when it's negative -2. And flip when it's even. There are quite a few plays that are simple logic.

  4. #44
    Back offs and countermeasures, need help handling them..

    What the hell is wrong with you 21forme?

    ra ra shish kum bah
    ZeeBabar can do it
    ZeeBabar can
    If he can't do it nobody can


    Bosox: Not to be critical. But your poem doesn't rhyme.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-17-2018 at 06:57 PM.

  5. #45
    Back offs and countermeasures, need help handling them..


    Moses writes: Bosox: Not to be critical. But your poem doesn't rhyme.


    You could at least offered him some encouragement.
    Bosox writes to 21 forme:


    21 Forme responds;

    What kind of encouragement?

    He's incapable of learning and posts just to get attention. He's as much an attention whore as he is a gambling addict.


    Moses replies: So you stalk Zee from sight to site and harass a 70 year old Muslim doctor seeking employment at McDs? . That should solve his attention seeking problem. Shrewed: C'mon Norm. Time to put the Zee/21Forme puppets away for good and come up with another one.



    IS 21FORME a/k/a Walter?
    Last edited by Moses; 11-17-2018 at 07:04 PM.

  6. #46
    So I've been trying to follow the dialog between T3 and Bosox in the above thread thinking I might learn something. It seems as though they both have a jug. Bosox can blow into his jug and keep up with the beat of the band. But T3 can blow into his jug and get banjo, piano, trumpet, guitar, and all kinds of musical sounds to come out of his jug.

    Here is what I don't understand. Both employ conventional counts. In other words, they assigned tag values to various cards. How is that T3 knows his count is different from Hilo at various points? I mean it's true - but how would he know - unless he is maintaining a HiLo count as well as his complex count? T3 says he ducks out of bets with poor deck compositions. But how would he know with tag values assigned as opposed to counting by columns? Perhaps the surplus or lack of Aces played/remaining is an indicator? Hell, that's no big deal. Why not just say so?

    The Tarzan count reduces the lowest cards played in a column to 0. But what if one column jumps up and another one falls? Wouldn't that create inaccuracy over the course of 312 cards? Also, if Tarzan has to ability to track the amount of 23s,45s,67s,and 89s played/remaining why the need to reduce any column to 0?

    What if Tarzan, T3, and Flash are one in the same? T3 and Flash tend to speak for Tarzan as if they know his count well enough to discuss. But yet neither employ it? T3 and Flash used to follow each others posts as if they were joined at the hip. Really, these 3 guys meet in a coffee shop somewhere along the east coast and write/discuss blackjack forum issues? And I thought I was the one without a life.

    Anyway you slice it up, it's still 312 cards, a mindfuck in itself.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-19-2018 at 03:07 AM.

  7. #47
    So, back to what my friend Lou stated "there are bull shitters and there are blowhards." My weakness is I have a difficult time separating shit from shinola sometimes.

    Lou says the blowhards are the guys that always win and know more about everything than everyone else. Those guys are not worth the time of day. They are always going to hit you up for money.

    However, bull shitters are looking for people to root for, follow, and feel sorry for them. Those are a little more tolerable. For instance, Dufus loses $50 on a game and says it was $500. Or buys in for $90 at a $25 table and then claims he lost $1500 in 15 minutes. The answer is "sorry to hear the Dufus. Now go kipe us some donuts and bananas from the VIP room."

    In real life, it's much easier to spot. The blowhard might be some scraggly looking dude who sleeps in his van with his cats. The bull shitter is wearing a free T shirt that shrunk when he washed it and now it won't cover his stomach. Plus you can tell what he likes to eat because it's all over his shirt. Hence, he won't wash it out of fear it will shrink again.

    Back to choir boy Bill. The same exists in the real world of which you are so proud of being a member. It's just the clothing is different.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-19-2018 at 10:12 AM.

  8. #48
    RS writes to T3; You’ve gotta be joking. A 19 is a losing hand vs 20 whether you’re using HiLo or ho2 w/asc or any other count. Any two counts, if played side by side, are going to look damn close to identical. The stuff about negative swings, big buy-ins, etc. is all complete bullshit in reference to comparing 2 different counts. There’s a reason there is a SMALL difference between different systems and not a huge difference like your post implies. Do you have any numbers to support your nonsense claims?


    Moses notes:
    It is possible to compare two counts by using a spreadsheet and logging hands on Verite. But impossible to do by viewing logs on CV Data. There often is a significant difference between two counts. But yes, positive will be positive and negative will be negative. Even may swing either way depending on tags assigned. A CV Data sim SCORE might be 20% difference if comparing apples to apples. But most are 5% to 10%. It's not about the destination, it IS about the ride to arrive. A spreadsheet with Verite is like comparing Oranges to Oranges. But in the real game in the real casino, you want the Mandarin Orange. The taste is much sweeter.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-19-2018 at 01:12 PM.

  9. #49
    Is using level 2 count in shoe game an overkill

    I've always considered a player should use a counting system that they are most comfortable with and can perform virtually error free. Nothing new there but a Level 2 count with a higher Playing Efficiency than Hi-Lo is useful if a player is flat betting only in positive counts. The house advantage and penetration need to be taken into account but in this case a Level 2 count will generate better results than Hi-Lo.

    Well said; Worth noting.

    Don S played 1 year of Level 1 and then switched to Felt/RPC. As he and Norm put it. "They never found anything better." End of story? One can only hope.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Don S played 1 year of Level 1 and then switched to Felt/RPC. As he and Norm put it. "They never found anything better." End of story? One can only hope.
    Moses, I no longer read Norm's site, unless I am directed to something specific by someone, so I am not sure who you are quoting here (who wrote this?), but this quote is NOT end of story.

    In the last 2 years Don has stated that knowing everything he now knows, if he were starting out today he would play a level 1 count like hi-lo or possible K-O and use 20-30 index plays, rather than RPC which he has played for 40 years and 150 index plays. Now THAT speaks volumes to me, hindsight being 20/20.

    And for anyone who this statement is not crystal clear, let me translate. Don is saying that for the mediocre shoe games that most players (myself included) are playing today, 2018, a higher level count, side counts and a large number of index plays adds little. The purist will give computer simulations that say these advanced techniques add this or that, but it is very much a case of diminishing returns and as such begs the question, is it worth it? My conclusion some 12 years ago (after I played RPC for 18 months) and Don's conclusion in the last 2 years are that no, it is not worth it. Simplicity is the way to go.

    In today's world, today's blackjack games and conditions that most players play (you and your single deck are the exception), you win by getting out the money in advantageous situations. Almost any count will identify those situations. The trick is learning how to get that money out and still be welcome to play and figuring a way to escape the worst of the disadvantage situations. That is what makes for a winning game in 2018.

  11. #51
    KJ. The green ink was me. The black was Davethebuilder. If you happen to take a gander at the thread you'll see it's evolving into the old Hi Opt vs HiLO yarn again.

    The single deck straight up game depends on the actions of the dealer. Much like an official in basketball. IF an official is passive you teach your players to attack. IF an official is calling every touch, you spread the floor and keep the ball in your possession. This puts the other team at a disadvantage of being in foul trouble. Right Coach?

    IF a dealer is going deep into a deck, then column strategy works best because your large bets have a solid deck composition and you can pick up some extra wins at the end of the deck because a column might be exhausted of cards.

    IF a dealer is only going to 5 rounds? Game is postponed. The in between is the tricky part. I'm still working on it. But I think I've about figured it out. Getting the best value on your dollar is key and not wasting more time than necessary at a table is crucial.

    As for Zee's game? HE needs a slice of Dog Shit Cake for his Double deck game and to stay the hell away from shoes. Just stick to his sandals.
    Last edited by Moses; 11-20-2018 at 10:02 AM.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    IF a dealer is going deep into a deck, then column strategy works best because your large bets have a solid deck composition and you can pick up some extra wins at the end of the deck because a column might be exhausted of cards.
    .
    Suppose you are going to employ Tarzan "the marquee" of all counts. Suppose you reduced the 2-5s column to 0 at some point in the deck. Now an abundance of the 2-5s come out which puts you in a situation of making a max bet. O good my first hand was a blackjack which took the remaining Ace from the deck. O damn my second hand is 16 vs 8. In a column count, I will know exactly how many 2-5s have been played and thus still remain. In this example, they've all been played. Therefore, there is no way you can win the hand by hitting. This, THIS is HOW YOU REDUCE VARIANCE.

  13. #53
    Here is another samples of bull.

    Over the year, so far, I spent 402 hours (actually at table), spent $8,515 (airlines, car rentals, food, gas etc.), and won $32,115 playing 75% DD, 25% 6D games (about 75% rated, 25% anonymous). Its about $6k less in winnings than in 2017.

    After almost 5 years, I finally burnt out all (the ones I played at) the local casinos. I did poorly in Las Vegas (8 trips) primarily because of high expenses (won $3380, played 110 hours had expenses of $2k) and playing too conservatively. I need to play more aggressively or cut down on expenses for Las Vegas but trips lose the fun when I do that.

    So you made $80 per hour with HiLO, playing 75% DD, with no game or inclination to ever work on your game whatsoever. You walk away from strong counts because you're afraid of losing money. And you made $26K in 2017 and previous 5 years but did nothing but bitch and ask questions about your game. GUYS stop posting BULLSHIT

    Congratulations, very impressive results for 2018. I think you might be running above expected value, but you surely can't knock almost $80 an hour.

    Rah Rah sis boom bap.
    Post some more of this crap.
    KJ KJ he's so cool, wise, and meek
    HE lost this much in a week


    After almost 5 years, I finally burnt out all (the ones I played at) the local casinos. I did poorly in Las Vegas (8 trips) primarily because of high expenses (won $3380, played 110 hours had expenses of $2k) and playing too conservatively. I need to play more aggressively or cut down on expenses for Las Vegas but trips lose the fun quotient when I do that.

    IF you got kicked out locally, it was because the pit bosses were laughing so hard at your game they couldn't see through the tears to view other players. IF, IF you can make $80 an hour. MOVE to Vegas. Think of what you'll save in travel expense. You could triple your time at the tables and still have time to improve your game. IMAGINE? Why hell, you'll be knocking down $100k in no time. No?
    Last edited by Moses; 12-13-2018 at 10:38 PM.

  14. #54
    Congrats Zee. Nice post. You know what you need to do and seem resolved to do it. I hope you have the discipline to pull it off. That is the biggest struggle for most APs. It isn't knowing what to do. It is having the discipline to do it without deviation.

    T3 writes:

    Moses replies: O brother. The main person these yo hos need to stop bullshitting is themselves. Maybe you need to watch more Law & Order shows. It worked for me. You, of all people going gaga over short term results. Now, if he had reported a loss of $32K, which is more likely the case. You be telling him to think long term. He is seventy-friggin-years old making 8 trips a year to Vegas. So take 16 trips a year until your 80 and then drop by to 4 when you turn 90. You should be even by the time your reach 150.

    Norm, your looney tune characters from Happy Days have turned into Happy Daze.

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