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Thread: Big Craps Advantage In Seattle

  1. #1
    I get the Casino City Times Newsletter. In the current addition Jerrry Stickman wrote about a big craps advantage going down in one of the casinos around Seattle. I think Alan would like this bet a hell of a lot more than the fire bet. I can't imagine that Stickman would put this up in the newsletter while it was still going on. Damn, I would have like to have been on that play.

    Click the link then click the weekly newsletter tab to read about it.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...hpxF2lkgexGvHi
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #2
    It's similar to what you need to do to win the ALL bet. But with the ALL you need to throw ten different numbers. With this promotion you can keep repeating any numbers but a seven and win. It's worth a try.

    Boyd has a bet that pays even money: roll the dice four times without a seven.

    Now with this promotion get 10X your money if you can avoid a 7 for 13 rolls.

    I like it better than the STA (small, tall, all) since there is no requirements about which numbers must be hit.

    I'd play it rather than the STA if it were available.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's similar to what you need to do to win the ALL bet. But with the ALL you need to throw ten different numbers. With this promotion you can keep repeating any numbers but a seven and win. It's worth a try.

    Boyd has a bet that pays even money: roll the dice four times without a seven.

    Now with this promotion get 10X your money if you can avoid a 7 for 13 rolls.

    I like it better than the STA (small, tall, all) since there is no requirements about which numbers must be hit.

    I'd play it rather than the STA if it were available.
    On the Boyd bet, by my math you have only a 48.2253% chance to go four rolls without a 7.

    5/6 = .833333333

    .833333333 X .833333333 X .833333333 X .833333333 = 48.2253%

    And I'm going over the math on the Seattle bet.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-13-2018 at 04:47 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #4
    I'd come out of retirement for that promo.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I'd come out of retirement for that promo.
    The chance of going 13 rolls without a 7 is .833333333 to the 13th power, or 9.97%. Since the passline bet has a 1.4% house advantage, 98.6% return to the player, getting payed 10X the bet on 13 rolls without a 7 is damn near a freeroll.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #6
    The wiz reviewed it late last year.

    see:

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/31-classic/
    What, Me Worry?

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    The wiz reviewed it late last year.

    see:

    https://wizardofodds.com/games/31-classic/
    31 Classic is a card game.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #8
    mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?

  9. #9
    What is the "big...advantage" available here, is there someway to AP it?
    What, Me Worry?

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?
    I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

    And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-13-2018 at 05:47 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    What is the "big...advantage" available here, is there someway to AP it?
    It would take some work on this bet. The table would most likely be packed with dice players. Max payoff on the bet is $500. So it would call for a $50 passline bet. Only the shooter qualifies for the bet. The passline bet also covers the 13 roll bet. The frequency of the 13 rolls without sevening out is 10%. The 13 rolls will occur, per the average, every 10 times the dice 7 out.

    Since the house has a 1.4% advantage on the passline bet and the wager per 10 decisions is $500 the average cost would be $7 per 10 decisions. The expectation is to cash for $500 per every 10 decisions. It's a 198% play by my math.

    Since only the shooter qualifies for the bet it would be time consuming. The best way to handle it would be for people to partner up so they are getting more chances per round.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #12
    Uh, again, it's a CARD game, not a dice game.

    Interesting game, though.
    What, Me Worry?

  13. #13

  14. #14
    Thanks, that ends the confusion.
    What, Me Worry?

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It's a 198% play by my math.
    Dividing this bet the total amount bet yields a player advantage of 51%. http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...romotion-66107
    Are we talking about the same bet?

    Actually, I have no idea, don't have time to read all of that. Just thought I would try to compare Mickey's calculations to the ones in the link jbjb provided.
    Last edited by Bill Yung; 11-13-2018 at 08:28 PM.
    78255585899=317*13723*17989=(310+7)*[(13730-7)*(100*100+7979+10)]-->LOVE avatar@137_371_179_791, or 137_371_17[3^2]_7[3^2]1, 1=V-->Ace, low. 78255585899-->99858555287=(99858555288-1)=[-1+(72*2227)*(722777-100000)]={-1+(72*2227)*[(2000+700777+20000)-100000]}-->1_722_227_277_772_1. 7×8×2×5×5×5×8×5×8×9×9=362880000=(1000000000-6√97020000-100000)-->169_721. (7/8×2/5×5/5×8/5×8/9×9)={[(-.1+.9)]^2×(6+1)}-->1961=√4*2.24; (1/7×8/2×5/5×5/8×5/8×9/9)={1/[7×(-.2+1)^2]}-->1721=[(10*10/4)/(√4+110)].

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?
    I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

    And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.
    mickey, I didn't look for or read the article. I figured since you seem to have no other interests in life outside of alcohol, junk cars, self-powered hand jobs, and gambling, you'd be the best to ask.

  17. #17
    On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

    I think the key statistic from the article was this:

    According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Bill Yung View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It's a 198% play by my math.
    Dividing this bet the total amount bet yields a player advantage of 51%. http://stickman.casinocitytimes.com/...romotion-66107
    Are we talking about the same bet?

    Actually, I have no idea, don't have time to read all of that. Just thought I would try to compare Mickey's calculations to the ones in the link jbjb provided.
    Stickman said he didn't know how to do the pure math on the bet.

    When you want to know the chance of not rolling a certain number for a certain number of rolls you multiply the failure rate. The chance of rolling a 7 is 1 in 6. So the failure rate is 5 in 6. The decimal for 5/6 is .833333333. You multiply the decimal 13 times. It's also called .833333333 to the 13th power. The chance of going 13 rolls without a 7 is 9.3463875% or 1 in 10.7. I rounded it to 1 in 10 for ease of example but will now do the exact math.

    The passline bet has a 98.6% return and you are freerolling the 13 rolls. The cost of the $50 passline bet is $7.49 per 10.7 decisions. Anytime there are 13 rolls between 7's, happens 9.346% of the time, you get payed $500. I'll trade $7.49 for $500 anyday and all day.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-13-2018 at 09:58 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

    I think the key statistic from the article was this:

    According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.
    You are not even right about the number of rolls you have to miss the 7. Do you see where it says "14 rolls or more?" Fourteen rolls or more is quite a different percentage than exactly 14 rolls. In the case of the Seattle bet you get payed when the 7 misses the 13th time.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-13-2018 at 10:06 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    mickey, while it's confusing why we're seeing the 31 card game discussed in the middle of all this, the question is, if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage, is it by mistake, or does the casino know what they're doing, and why?
    I have no clue. I'm not there. Just going by Stickman's word. I can't imagine Stickman would put that question and answer up while the play is still going on. It would attract AP's by the droves which would be the quickest way to kill the play. It's an obvious mistake, especially since they planned on running it for one month....and Stickman made the point that someone might lose their job over it.

    And Rob, Mr. I have a degree and am highly educated in math, your statement here, "if this dice game you're talking about has such a juicy advantage" means you can't figure it out yourself just by reading the article. Hahahahaha!!! That's funny. You've exposed yourself once again as the fraudulent assclown you are. You don't know a damn thing about the mathematics of gambling or you would see the big edge to be had.
    mickey, I didn't look for or read the article. I figured since you seem to have no other interests in life outside of alcohol, junk cars, self-powered hand jobs, and gambling, you'd be the best to ask.
    You didn't read the article? Prove it.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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