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Thread: Big Craps Advantage In Seattle

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    On that web page there is a second letter to Stickman saying the promotion is over.

    I think the key statistic from the article was this:

    According to Smart Craps the percentage of hands of 14 roll or more is 17.7%. Getting paid an extra 10 times your line bet 17% of the time is well more than enough to offset the house edge.
    You are not even right about the number of rolls you have to miss the 7. Do you see where it says "14 rolls or more?" Fourteen rolls or more is quite a different percentage than exactly 14 rolls. In the case of the Seattle bet you get payed when the 7 misses the 13th time.
    Mickey I quoted a line from the article. Do you have to argue everything?
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  2. #22
    Does anyone know exactly what casino this was in?

    I would be tempted to pay people to just pass the dice. I dont think one would have a problem hiring people to play craps for them. Give them a small free roll on their winnings so they have action.

    I have no idea how many rolls you can get out on a craps table I wonder what the hourly is when you are the shooter?
    Last edited by AxelWolf; 11-14-2018 at 01:27 AM.

  3. #23
    Think of it this way. At an empty craps table -- shooter only -- you can get one roll every fifteen seconds. This includes the five seconds of rolling the dice, the five seconds for a simple payoff on a box number, and the five seconds to retrieve the dice for the next roll.

    In a perfect scenario you could make 13 throws in less than three and a half minutes. You could win this bet about 20 times an hour, in a perfect scenario.

    When you add other players and complex bets such as come with odds and hardways, you're lucky to get 60 rolls an hour, or one a minute. In a really busy scenario you might not get a roll for three minutes or longer and I've seen that happen at a crowded table with bets pressed and hardways hitting.
    It's all about quitting when ahead.

  4. #24
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    I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

    I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

    So what is the Seattle connection?
    What, Me Worry?

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

    I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

    So what is the Seattle connection?
    In the 5th paragraph of Stickman's answer he tells the guy "I'll see you in 8 hours which is as soon as I can fly to Seattle."
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Does anyone know exactly what casino this was in?

    I would be tempted to pay people to just pass the dice. I dont think one would have a problem hiring people to play craps for them. Give them a small free roll on their winnings so they have action.

    I have no idea how many rolls you can get out on a craps table I wonder what the hourly is when you are the shooter?
    Can't say exactly but my guess would be Tulalip or Muckleshoot.
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  7. #27
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

    I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

    So what is the Seattle connection?
    In the 5th paragraph of Stickman's answer he tells the guy "I'll see you in 8 hours which is as soon as I can fly to Seattle."
    It sort of sounds like he was asking himself this question, that he had to start dropping hints he had no intention of pursuing.

    I got the same feeling from reading some of the Wiz's Q's and A's. I mean, who even knew he existed before he put those questions up on his ODDS site?

    If he, or the other guy, had been asked a question that he couldn't answer, it would have been more believable. (The Wizard couldn't catch flies with his mouth, either, in real time.)
    True addicts are incredibly credible. Gambling is just another word for keep losing. Nothing "sweeter" than watching people try to make something out of an internet gambling site. A bozo's set of bozos whether system or advantage players. Both types to whichever degree could make billions in the markets if any of that stuff actually worked. It's great to be a spectator of gambling, and not to have one leg and arm stuck in the "grave" like the cunts, cowards and crackpots here. Forever 57.

  8. #28
    The formula for determining the probability of going X number of rolls of the dice without rolling a certain number has been around for 350 years. It's a fundamental of Probability Theory and was pioneer'd by Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, the founders of Probability Theory. It was the first formula they developed for dice throws. It started with a simple question asked of them by a dice gambler "What is the probability of rolling boxcars in 24 rolls?" Their solution was multiplying the failure rate for each roll.

    The probability of rolling boxcars on the next throw is 1/36. The failure rate is 35/36. The decimal for the failure rate is .97222222. They multiplied the failure rate 24 times and came up with the answer of 50.8%. Which means the success rate is 49.2%. This was crucial to the dice gambler because he had been betting that he could roll boxcars in 24 rolls. They advised him that he needed an effective number of 25 to have an advantage.

    The story of how Pascal and Fermat founded the branch of mathematics known as Probability Theory over a question asked them by a dice gambler is well documented and everyone who has studied the origins of the science knows it. The failure rate formula has been around for 350 years, mathematicians for ten generations have used it, and no noted mathematician has ever refuted it.

    I used the exact same formula for calculating the probability of going 13 rolls without rolling a 7.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-14-2018 at 02:31 PM.
    Hate crime hoaxes? The left's demand for biggots greatly exceeds the supply.

  9. #29
    I looked at a few websites where I suspected it may be. I noticed one place listed their promotion with clickable links to the details, but there was no craps promo mentioned. Then I checked their calendar and it was just a screenshot (probably of their monthly snail mail promo calenders they send out) and it had a craps promo(at least that's what the graphics indicated), but no details that I could click on since it was just a screenshot of their calendar.

    I would suspect this was the place and they took it off the main promo page but they didn't want to delete the entire calendar screenshot off the website.

    At this point, I dont even remember the name of the casino, I would have to recheck a few sites to remind myself.

  10. #30
    Dies ist Herr Max Planck der Barney bester Freund

    Als der größte Mathematiker der Welt kann ich zweifellos bestätigen, dass die größte Mickey Crimm-Analyse der Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Würfelergebnisse sehr korrekt ist und auf den größten Werken von Pascal und Fermat basiert.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by MisterV View Post
    I read the article where Stickman responded to an inquiry from someone about a promotion.

    I did not see any reference to which casino offered the promotion, or what part of the country it was in, other than it was sixty miles from the guy's house.

    So what is the Seattle connection?
    As I was reading when you asked this question, I had no idea where I got that information from, I was 100% certain I read it but I almost 2nd guessed myself after what you posted. I was about to go read it again after I finished reading the rest of this thread.
    Mystery solved, glad I finished reading the rest of the thread.

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