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Thread: I lost a bet about video poker strategy against a forum member

  1. #1
    The scene:

    Was at an unnnamed casino with an unnamed vegascasinotalk forum member and playing Double Bonus Poker. I don't play the game much so I don't know the strategy that well.

    Was dealt T976x, no more than 2 of one suit.

    I said that was a throwaway. He said to hold the inside straight.

    He offered to bet me $8000. I told him no way. We compromised on $10.

    Looked it up on Wizard of Odds, and he was right. I confused it with Bonus Poker, where that is a throwaway.

    He then stated that a good rule of thumb is that if 2-pair is paying even money instead of 2x, you hold the inside straight.

    I agreed that was a good rule of thumb.

    He then demanded that I give him credit for "teaching" me something, which I refused to do, because I could have learned it the same from bringing up strategy sites.

    I did pay him the $10 and promised to post this story on the forum.

    The end.
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  2. #2
    Wow Dan, glad you posted this story. Maybe there is light at the end of this forums tunnel.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The scene:

    Was at an unnnamed casino with an unnamed vegascasinotalk forum member and playing Double Bonus Poker. I don't play the game much so I don't know the strategy that well.

    Was dealt T976x, no more than 2 of one suit.

    I said that was a throwaway. He said to hold the inside straight.

    He offered to bet me $8000. I told him no way. We compromised on $10.

    Looked it up on Wizard of Odds, and he was right. I confused it with Bonus Poker, where that is a throwaway.

    He then stated that a good rule of thumb is that if 2-pair is paying even money instead of 2x, you hold the inside straight.

    I agreed that was a good rule of thumb.

    He then demanded that I give him credit for "teaching" me something, which I refused to do, because I could have learned it the same from bringing up strategy sites.

    I did pay him the $10 and promised to post this story on the forum.

    The end.
    The hand was affected more by the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1. With the 5 for 1 there are four cards of 47 that make the straight:

    4 X 5 = 20
    20/47 = .4255

    With the straight paying 4 for 1 the math looks like this:

    4 X 4 = 16
    16/47 = .3404

    At Bonus poker the straight pays 4 for 1 so the value of the inside straight draw is .3404. But the draw five hand is slightly better at .35686. It's slightly better because of two pair paying 2 for 1.

    At Double Double bonus the straight pays 4 for 1 so the inside straight draw has the same value as Bonus Poker, .3404. But the draw five hand has a slightly lower value, .32504. It's mainly because of the two pair paying even money.

    From these numbers you can see that the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1 has a big affect on the value of the inside straight draw.

    Overall, the rule of thumb your buddy came up with stands up.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-23-2018 at 05:13 AM.
    Megan Kelly "Why haven't you published any dirt on Trump?" Julian Assange "There isn't any."

  4. #4
    Any guesses as to who the forum member is that Dan is referring to? Might be a juicy play going down somewhere.
    Megan Kelly "Why haven't you published any dirt on Trump?" Julian Assange "There isn't any."

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Any guesses as to who the forum member is that Dan is referring to? Might be a juicy play going down somewhere.
    Well the offered bet was $8000 and the guy knew strategy so I can think of at least one member this eliminates.

  6. #6
    If you're in the hole deep enough, you just GOT TO go for the "special play" and just hold the 10!!

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The scene:

    Was at an unnnamed casino with an unnamed vegascasinotalk forum member and playing Double Bonus Poker. I don't play the game much so I don't know the strategy that well.

    Was dealt T976x, no more than 2 of one suit.

    I said that was a throwaway. He said to hold the inside straight.

    He offered to bet me $8000. I told him no way. We compromised on $10.

    Looked it up on Wizard of Odds, and he was right. I confused it with Bonus Poker, where that is a throwaway.

    He then stated that a good rule of thumb is that if 2-pair is paying even money instead of 2x, you hold the inside straight.

    I agreed that was a good rule of thumb.

    He then demanded that I give him credit for "teaching" me something, which I refused to do, because I could have learned it the same from bringing up strategy sites.

    I did pay him the $10 and promised to post this story on the forum.

    The end.
    The hand was affected more by the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1. With the 5 for 1 there are four cards of 47 that make the straight:

    4 X 5 = 20
    20/47 = .4255

    With the straight paying 4 for 1 the math looks like this:

    4 X 4 = 16
    16/47 = .3404

    At Bonus poker the straight pays 4 for 1 so the value of the inside straight draw is .3404. But the draw five hand is slightly better at .35686. It's slightly better because of two pair paying 2 for 1.

    At Double Double bonus the straight pays 4 for 1 so the inside straight draw has the same value as Bonus Poker, .3404. But the draw five hand has a slightly lower value, .32504. It's mainly because of the two pair paying even money.

    From these numbers you can see that the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1 has a big affect on the value of the inside straight draw.

    Overall, the rule of thumb your buddy came up with stands up.
    Well done Mickey. Nice breakdown.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Any guesses as to who the forum member is that Dan is referring to? Might be a juicy play going down somewhere.
    JBJB

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Any guesses as to who the forum member is that Dan is referring to? Might be a juicy play going down somewhere.
    JBJB
    'Twas not me.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Any guesses as to who the forum member is that Dan is referring to? Might be a juicy play going down somewhere.
    JBJB
    'Twas not me.
    I remember you posting the excellent strategy tip a couple months back about two pair vp variants (non-wild) that pay two coins for one bet being those where the non-open straight is thrown out instead of held, so I took a shot.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    The scene:

    Was at an unnnamed casino with an unnamed vegascasinotalk forum member and playing Double Bonus Poker. I don't play the game much so I don't know the strategy that well.

    Was dealt T976x, no more than 2 of one suit.

    I said that was a throwaway. He said to hold the inside straight.

    He offered to bet me $8000. I told him no way. We compromised on $10.

    Looked it up on Wizard of Odds, and he was right. I confused it with Bonus Poker, where that is a throwaway.

    He then stated that a good rule of thumb is that if 2-pair is paying even money instead of 2x, you hold the inside straight.

    I agreed that was a good rule of thumb.

    He then demanded that I give him credit for "teaching" me something, which I refused to do, because I could have learned it the same from bringing up strategy sites.

    I did pay him the $10 and promised to post this story on the forum.

    The end.
    The hand was affected more by the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1. With the 5 for 1 there are four cards of 47 that make the straight:

    4 X 5 = 20
    20/47 = .4255

    With the straight paying 4 for 1 the math looks like this:

    4 X 4 = 16
    16/47 = .3404

    At Bonus poker the straight pays 4 for 1 so the value of the inside straight draw is .3404. But the draw five hand is slightly better at .35686. It's slightly better because of two pair paying 2 for 1.

    At Double Double bonus the straight pays 4 for 1 so the inside straight draw has the same value as Bonus Poker, .3404. But the draw five hand has a slightly lower value, .32504. It's mainly because of the two pair paying even money.

    From these numbers you can see that the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1 has a big affect on the value of the inside straight draw.

    Overall, the rule of thumb your buddy came up with stands up.
    Well done Mickey. Nice breakdown.
    If he presented that to me as my employee, I'd have put him on suspension. It's hardly complete. He only mentions any possible straight with no high cards, which alter the held hands' values. You presented your analysis hinting at blanket coverage of possible straight draws. That's the type of thing that happens when one plagiarizes.

    If you're gonna do it mickey, do it right. Which means offering a complete explanation.

    D-

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by dannyj View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    The hand was affected more by the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1. With the 5 for 1 there are four cards of 47 that make the straight:

    4 X 5 = 20
    20/47 = .4255

    With the straight paying 4 for 1 the math looks like this:

    4 X 4 = 16
    16/47 = .3404

    At Bonus poker the straight pays 4 for 1 so the value of the inside straight draw is .3404. But the draw five hand is slightly better at .35686. It's slightly better because of two pair paying 2 for 1.

    At Double Double bonus the straight pays 4 for 1 so the inside straight draw has the same value as Bonus Poker, .3404. But the draw five hand has a slightly lower value, .32504. It's mainly because of the two pair paying even money.

    From these numbers you can see that the straight paying 5 for 1 instead of 4 for 1 has a big affect on the value of the inside straight draw.

    Overall, the rule of thumb your buddy came up with stands up.
    Well done Mickey. Nice breakdown.
    If he presented that to me as my employee, I'd have put him on suspension. It's hardly complete. He only mentions any possible straight with no high cards, which alter the held hands' values. You presented your analysis hinting at blanket coverage of possible straight draws. That's the type of thing that happens when one plagiarizes.

    If you're gonna do it mickey, do it right. Which means offering a complete explanation.

    D-
    Not even a good try, Robocchio. My analysis was for the exact hand in question, T976x, which can be clearly seen in Dan's post. That is the exact hand they were betting on. No other hand was put up by Dan. The bet was specifically about holding either the inside straight draw or drawing five cards. When 4-card inside straights with high cards are considered it adds another option, holding just the high cards. So that dog won't hunt, Robocchio.

    And YOU? A teacher of video poker? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!! That's a good one right there, Robocchio. Damn you're funny, dude. Did you want me to include the "special play" of holding just the ten? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!! Oh, boy. I'm laughing so hard my side hurts.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-24-2018 at 02:11 AM.
    Megan Kelly "Why haven't you published any dirt on Trump?" Julian Assange "There isn't any."

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