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Thread: Online bonus clearing, did I do it right?

  1. #1
    Hey everyone. Question for all the math whizzes out there.

    I recently got a $600 welcome bonus on an online sportsbook/casino. They pay reliably.

    Had to roll over 117x, which is pretty brutal.

    I chose to do it at blackjack, with these rules:

    Double any 2 cards
    Double after split allowed
    Resplit aces not allowed
    Blackjack pays 3:2
    Late surrender
    Dealer hits soft 17

    I started out betting 2 hands of $75. When I won like 2 hands, I upped that to 2x100. When I got my bankroll above $1000, I upped it to 2x150. When I got my bankroll to above $2000, I upped it to 2x200. When I got to over $2500, I upped it to 2x250. When I got to over $5000, I upped it to 2x300. If I fell below my original 600, I lowered it to 2x$75 again.

    Well, I ran it up to $2600 then almost busted, then had a comeback and started running it up fast. I had $14k at my high, never having bet more than 2x300.

    But this point I was at about 71% cleared, meaning I had a little over 20k left to clear.

    This is where I screwed up. I kept betting 2x300 and starting running bad. Well, when I got to $11k, I decided to go down to 2x250. I still ran bad and only at the very very end it I lower it way down, and I finished with $7700.

    Obviously I'm happy given it was $600 free money to play with, but I think maybe I coulda cleared more if I lowered the variance once I hit $14k with only $20k in action to run.

    Aside from my overaggressive end play, what do you guys think of my clearing strategy?

  2. #2
    I would say you got extremely lucky. Starting at 2 X 75 with a $600 roll carries way to much risk of ruin.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by JMichael View Post
    Hey everyone. Question for all the math whizzes out there.

    I recently got a $600 welcome bonus on an online sportsbook/casino. They pay reliably.

    Had to roll over 117x, which is pretty brutal.

    I chose to do it at blackjack, with these rules:

    Double any 2 cards
    Double after split allowed
    Resplit aces not allowed
    Blackjack pays 3:2
    Late surrender
    Dealer hits soft 17

    I started out betting 2 hands of $75. When I won like 2 hands, I upped that to 2x100. When I got my bankroll above $1000, I upped it to 2x150. When I got my bankroll to above $2000, I upped it to 2x200. When I got to over $2500, I upped it to 2x250. When I got to over $5000, I upped it to 2x300. If I fell below my original 600, I lowered it to 2x$75 again.

    Well, I ran it up to $2600 then almost busted, then had a comeback and started running it up fast. I had $14k at my high, never having bet more than 2x300.

    But this point I was at about 71% cleared, meaning I had a little over 20k left to clear.

    This is where I screwed up. I kept betting 2x300 and starting running bad. Well, when I got to $11k, I decided to go down to 2x250. I still ran bad and only at the very very end it I lower it way down, and I finished with $7700.

    Obviously I'm happy given it was $600 free money to play with, but I think maybe I coulda cleared more if I lowered the variance once I hit $14k with only $20k in action to run.

    Aside from my overaggressive end play, what do you guys think of my clearing strategy?
    117 x bonus plus deposit? or 60x B+D.

    What happens if you lose your bonus plus deposit as far as the wagering requirements go? Do they go away or are you on make up on the next bonus?

    Let us know if you get paid and where its at. Not that I would ever want to play for for that particular bonus since the Risk VS reward seems a bit steep especially for an online casino.I Just want to know what casinos online pay and what casinos don't for future reference.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I would say you got extremely lucky. Starting at 2 X 75 with a $600 roll carries way to much risk of ruin.
    With real money, for sure.

    With bonus money that will be worth zero unless 117x rollover is cleared, I believe JMicheal approached that part of it correctly -- basically a "go big or go home" strategy.

    It's not too different of a strategy from those 100% loss rebate promotions, where you bet large and set a stopping point where you're satisfied with your winnings, and either reach that point or bust fairly quickly and collect the rebate.

    With a game like blackjack, if you're going to just grind small bets, the house edge is going to eat you alive way before you can roll over 117x, and even if you survive, you won't make much money.

    JMichael's strategy will brick most of the time, but occasionally he will catch a hot streak and run it up pretty high.

    I do believe his self-assessment is mostly correct. Once he got to $14k with $20k left to play off, it was a virtual certainty that he wouldn't go bust. So he might as well just grind lower at that point, to lower variance. Instead, he shot off nearly half of it still betting large.

    Given the low house edge and the fact that he didn't have all that many hands left to play, it could have easily gone the other way, and he could have finished with $20k. But he took an unnecessary risk at the end with money which was likely to become real money, and he lost.

    Anyway, I haven't run the math on this, but I think he was approximately correct up until that blunder at the end.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    What casino games are offered and what are their weights towards meeting the 117x requirement (maybe you pre-weighted blackjack and it comes in at 117x with respect to the 100% weight slot/keno requirement) ?

  6. #6
    Hi JM,
    I'm not a maths wiz, but I have been in a similar position a few times and survived. My suggestion is that Going hell for leather with big bets was probably you best chance. I've gone with a rolling 10% of bankroll before now and succeeded against 300xbonus wagering requirement.
    But when the money is almost about to become real money, then if you are already well ahead, switch to low variance. Check whether roulette is permitted and whether the rules allow covering the whole table ( I found one that allows it ) and then you could find that the fixed rate of loss into the house edge would clear the WR and still leave you in profit.

  7. #7
    The "math wizzes" may offer their inimitable advice, but what they're ignoring (since very likely they're creaming their pants over the theory of it all from their armchairs) is that anybody who plays casino games at online casinos is dumb as a bag of rocks. Those juicy sounding "bonuses" are nothing but bait for addicted problem gamblers.

    Wise up.

  8. #8
    Thanks for your worthless feedback, Rob. Nothing here for you sir, so GFY.

    I must be dumb as a bag of rocks and I'm not even a math wizz.

    I agree that MOST of those juicy sounding bonuses are bait and MOST are viciously -EV

    But that's why this dumb-ass bag of rocks only accept the bonuses where the casino has seriously fcuked up in it's implementation of wagering requirements (E.g. saying that blackjack only contributes 10% to wagering requirements and then actually programming the site to give 100%)

    Even the OP, for all his ignorant stupidity, walked away with a good profit from his bonus offer. Real $$$ in the bank. Maybe he can invest it in one of your special plays and be as wised up as you.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    The "math wizzes" may offer their inimitable advice, but what they're ignoring (since very likely they're creaming their pants over the theory of it all from their armchairs) is that anybody who plays casino games at online casinos is dumb as a bag of rocks. Those juicy sounding "bonuses" are nothing but bait for addicted problem gamblers.

    Wise up.
    Det +3 over Chi LOSE
    Atl +13 over NO LOSE
    TB -3.5 over SF WIN
    Az +12.5 over LAC
    Indy -7.5 over Mia

    Parlay LOSE

    Wise Up.

    Originally Posted by OnceDear View Post
    Thanks for your worthless feedback, Rob. Nothing here for you sir, so GFY.

    I must be dumb as a bag of rocks and I'm not even a math wizz.

    I agree that MOST of those juicy sounding bonuses are bait and MOST are viciously -EV

    But that's why this dumb-ass bag of rocks only accept the bonuses where the casino has seriously fcuked up in it's implementation of wagering requirements (E.g. saying that blackjack only contributes 10% to wagering requirements and then actually programming the site to give 100%)

    Even the OP, for all his ignorant stupidity, walked away with a good profit from his bonus offer. Real $$$ in the bank. Maybe he can invest it in one of your special plays and be as wised up as you.
    GFY!

  10. #10
    Get real.

    I could sign up with an anonymous alias, claim to be one of these super duper spectaculicious AP's, and tell a story about how I "mastered" the art of manipulating online casino bonuses in my favor for a profit....and every one of you morons would be crowing about how great I am.

    Armchair theory and ap-idolizing at its best.

  11. #11
    What deposit was required for the bonus and how long must the money remain in the account before withdrawal?

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What deposit was required for the bonus and how long must the money remain in the account before withdrawal?
    Did you even read the first post idiot?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    What deposit was required for the bonus and how long must the money remain in the account before withdrawal?
    Did you even read the first post idiot?

    Yes I did MaxPen. He said he got a $600 bonus. He mentioned nothing about a deposit. I asked two questions including what deposit was required for the bonus? He didn't say, but "bonus" gives the impression that a deposit was required, as opposed to "free play" which requires no deposit.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by OnceDear View Post
    Hi JM,
    I'm not a maths wiz, but I have been in a similar position a few times and survived. My suggestion is that Going hell for leather with big bets was probably you best chance. I've gone with a rolling 10% of bankroll before now and succeeded against 300xbonus wagering requirement.
    But when the money is almost about to become real money, then if you are already well ahead, switch to low variance. Check whether roulette is permitted and whether the rules allow covering the whole table ( I found one that allows it ) and then you could find that the fixed rate of loss into the house edge would clear the WR and still leave you in profit.
    JM is fortunate that the online sportsbook/casino does not have a wager cap on the casino games (or if it is capped, the cap is bigger than $300 per blackjack hand/spot). Many of these shops cap the wager until the requirements are cleared to diminish the role of upside variance and increase the role of payback percentage.

  15. #15
    This thread reads like something put together by the new poster who started this thread with the obvious strategy (which worked) to show the site has interest gambling online. You would think he would post shit like this at WOV. How did he even find this place?

    The professional AP’s from the WOV are jumping into the thread to show off their gifted smarter than you gambling talents.

    Hell, this thread even dragged in a WOV policeman moron where online gaming is being promoted and protected at all costs, with no concerns about breaking this countries laws. After all, when you consider online gaming dragged the master AP Mike Shank. out of the gutter while holding a tin cup with a few million bucks (of course all on hearsay) what’s the big deal about breaking some federal and state banking laws for the benefit of Mike Shank? So what if offshore online casinos have no gaming regulators for the USA, you win some and lose more anyhow. Of course, unless you’re an AP specialist.

    After 20 years of online casinos fucking and still fucking USA members, Axel the drunken AP king is still looking for online casinos that do pay.

    Exploiting online casinos ended a long time ago before the UIGEA was past. Although they didn't have to pay you prior to the law they paid many in fear of the reputation they can't no longer deny after the law was past. Today if all your stars are aligned while you had your lucky rabbits foot hanging off your monitor and beat their bonus, you have yet to get past the odds of getting paid in the USA.

    From what I heard small payments are paid, but as soon as you hit a big one, you get the big one in the ass. Of course, unless you’re like a Redditz who can cash out 6 digit sports bets at will.

    Instead of pretending that all is well with offshore online gaming for USA players, maybe we should speak the truth about it. Then again you could delete my post and ban me from this thread also with no respect for my personal opinion that don't align with yours, claiming I'm muddying up the thread like you did in the Gift Card thread.

    Sorry Dan, this thread looks similar to Redditz back-door advertising being used to maybe get some online casino sponsors. I’m sure like Mike Shank. did (the losing king of AP’s,) you too would trade and risk your members from the USA gambling safety for the benefit of personal gain. Your no different than all the other gambling fools that would even own such forums.

    Does anyone here actually believe they could keep withdrawing cash from online casinos that don't have to pay you?
    Last edited by blackhole; 11-26-2018 at 12:33 AM.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by OnceDear View Post
    Thanks for your worthless feedback, Rob. Nothing here for you sir, so GFY.

    I must be dumb as a bag of rocks and I'm not even a math wizz.

    I agree that MOST of those juicy sounding bonuses are bait and MOST are viciously -EV

    But that's why this dumb-ass bag of rocks only accept the bonuses where the casino has seriously fcuked up in it's implementation of wagering requirements (E.g. saying that blackjack only contributes 10% to wagering requirements and then actually programming the site to give 100%)

    Even the OP, for all his ignorant stupidity, walked away with a good profit from his bonus offer. Real $$$ in the bank. Maybe he can invest it in one of your special plays and be as wised up as you.
    Why is the OP ignorant and stupid?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Does anyone here actually believe they could keep withdrawing cash from online casinos that don't have to pay you?
    You might not get the response you want from Dan on this subject. I think he has made countless withdrawals in the thousands of dollars from Bovada.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Does anyone here actually believe they could keep withdrawing cash from online casinos that don't have to pay you?
    You might not get the response you want from Dan on this subject. I think he has made countless withdrawals in the thousands of dollars from Bovada.
    There's that lack of education rearing it's ugly head again.

    Do you actually believe that any AP on planet earth, USA sector, Internet forum division, VCT subset, would EVER tell any of the other 4 "AP's" present that their super duper stupendous "+EV" online casino play turned into a foreign stiffing?

    Wise up....and get a diploma.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    You might not get the response you want from Dan on this subject. I think he has made countless withdrawals in the thousands of dollars from Bovada.
    Once a month prior to the UIGEA, Party Poker had a million dollar guarantee tourney. The buy-in was for 5 hundred and change if I remember right. I played every month in it for about two years straight. After hitting pay seats a few times I finally won the whole thing a couple of months before the UEGIA was past for 218k. I requested a bank wire for 215K and received the entire amount 6 days later which came from Canada.

    After all the online poker scandals, and illegal banking seizures that followed after the UIGEA coupled with the endless stories of not getting paid from off-shore sites, what asshole from the USA would even want to take any risk with off-shore gaming. Unless of course Dan is a complete gambling degenerate fool, I suspect he no longer would risk not getting paid from off-shore casinos that have the option of not having to pay because of no enforcement.

    Imagine having to put your non-payment of winnings in the hands of an idiot like Mike Shank.? Please, give me a break.
    Last edited by blackhole; 11-26-2018 at 05:48 AM. Reason: Spelling correction before Keystone found it.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by OnceDear View Post
    Thanks for your worthless feedback, Rob. Nothing here for you sir, so GFY.

    I must be dumb as a bag of rocks and I'm not even a math wizz.

    I agree that MOST of those juicy sounding bonuses are bait and MOST are viciously -EV

    But that's why this dumb-ass bag of rocks only accept the bonuses where the casino has seriously fcuked up in it's implementation of wagering requirements (E.g. saying that blackjack only contributes 10% to wagering requirements and then actually programming the site to give 100%)

    Even the OP, for all his ignorant stupidity, walked away with a good profit from his bonus offer. Real $$$ in the bank. Maybe he can invest it in one of your special plays and be as wised up as you.
    Why is the OP ignorant and stupid?
    Sarcasm.
    Take off that stupid mask you big baby.

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