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Thread: Red Rock football picks contest

  1. #1
    Hi. I'm the guy who knows ZERO about sports betting.

    I've been playing the free, weekly NFL picks contest at Red Rock.

    Using their kiosk I've been selecting "random picks" that are chosen by their computer every week.

    I'm tied for THIRD PLACE right now... along with 132 other participants.

    But more importantly in some of the "prop contests" such as pick a team that loses three in a row, I'm high in the standings. All because I picked "make random picks."

    I could actually win something.

    LOL
    Not a member, effective January 28, 2019

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Hi. I'm the guy who knows ZERO about sports betting.

    I've been playing the free, weekly NFL picks contest at Red Rock.

    Using their kiosk I've been selecting "random picks" that are chosen by their computer every week.

    I'm tied for THIRD PLACE right now... along with 132 other participants.

    But more importantly in some of the "prop contests" such as pick a team that loses three in a row, I'm high in the standings. All because I picked "make random picks."

    I could actually win something.

    LOL

    If it's just a weekly contest, that could happen. If it's season-long, not likely you're third if the NFL selections are truly random. Impossible, in fact. The favorites have won more than 67% of the games outright thus far. So if the contest is season-long, either you are misunderstanding what "random picks" are, or someone has rigged the contest in your favor. Given that it's Stations, this is not impossible.

    I would erase your post here and either (A) take all of the favorites this week to win outright or (B) keep doing what you're doing, figuring someone is looking out for you.

    Is it possible that the kiosk simply plugs in all of the favorites for you?
    Last edited by redietz; 11-28-2018 at 02:13 PM.

  3. #3
    It's a seasonal contest. As of this past weekend I'm tied in third place with my random picks. My random picks are also leading some of the prop contests. LOL

    I have no idea what the kiosk picks and I don't even look. I can't even tell you what team lost three weeks in a row to give me one of the prop entries for a special drawing.
    Not a member, effective January 28, 2019

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's a seasonal contest. As of this past weekend I'm tied in third place with my random picks. My random picks are also leading some of the prop contests. LOL

    I have no idea what the kiosk picks and I don't even look. I can't even tell you what team lost three weeks in a row to give me one of the prop entries for a special drawing.
    Hopefully you win something. That's what keeps tards like you coming back and dumping their pension checks at the craps table. If all you did was lose that would be truly sad.

    #KEEPHOPEALiVe

  5. #5
    So, assuming Mr. Mendelson is 80-40 (which would seem to be the absolute minimum required) as opposed to 60-60, could someone more versed in math than me tell me the likelihood of that happening?

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So, assuming Mr. Mendelson is 80-40 (which would seem to be the absolute minimum required) as opposed to 60-60, could someone more versed in math than me tell me the likelihood of that happening?
    Since he's tied for 3rd with 132 others, is it possible that all players choosing the random picks are assigned the same picks?

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So, assuming Mr. Mendelson is 80-40 (which would seem to be the absolute minimum required) as opposed to 60-60, could someone more versed in math than me tell me the likelihood of that happening?
    Since he's tied for 3rd with 132 others, is it possible that all players choosing the random picks are assigned the same picks?
    No, not unless there's an ongoing glitch. The number of 132 doesn't surprise me, as Stations routinely gets more than 30K entries, depending on the year and the rules. Some seasons, it's been 50k.

  8. #8
    I have three free weekly entries. Entry C has the best results. I do random picks for all three entries and they are not the same picks for each entry.
    Not a member, effective January 28, 2019

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Hopefully you win something. That's what keeps tards like you coming back and dumping their pension checks at the craps table. If all you did was lose that would be truly sad.

    #KEEPHOPEALiVe
    Just mean spirited.
    Pure Evil.
    Did Alan hurt your family or feelings?
    Be careful.
    Dan Druff has been deleting posts and banning trolling members from threads.
    Although, I wouldn't doubt, that you are exempt.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So, assuming Mr. Mendelson is 80-40 (which would seem to be the absolute minimum required) as opposed to 60-60, could someone more versed in math than me tell me the likelihood of that happening?
    Assuming the picks are random, and the spread makes the games fifty-fifty (wow, great oddsmakers), the probability of going exactly 80 and 40 is 0.0000862. The probability of winning 60 or more games (under these assumptions) is 0.536 (about 54%).
    Last edited by tableplay; 11-28-2018 at 07:36 PM.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So, assuming Mr. Mendelson is 80-40 (which would seem to be the absolute minimum required) as opposed to 60-60, could someone more versed in math than me tell me the likelihood of that happening?
    Assuming the picks are random, and the spread makes the games fifty-fifty (wow, great oddsmakers), the probability of going exactly 80 and 40 is 0.0000862. The probability of winning 60 or more games (under these assumptions) is 0.536 (about 54%).
    Sorry, tableplay. The format wasn't properly described.

    The contest is no spreads. Randomly assigned squads should result in a .500 record. Alan's alleged "random picks" have resulted in at least an 80-40 record when 60-60 would be expected. I say "at least an 80-40 record" because favorites have won 67% of the games outright this season and, at a bare minimum, Alan would have had to win at least that many games to be third. He probably would need an 84 or 85 win total, but let's say 80 for argument's sake.

    Randomly assigned games would expect to be 60-60, so how likely is it he'd manage 80-40, given a true random assignment of teams? It's the same question as, "How likely is 120 coin flips likely to result in 80 or more heads?"

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    It's the same question as, "How likely is 120 coin flips likely to result in 80 or more heads?"
    No worries at all Redietz. The answer to this question is 0.000165 (1 in about 6053.3).

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Hopefully you win something. That's what keeps tards like you coming back and dumping their pension checks at the craps table. If all you did was lose that would be truly sad.

    #KEEPHOPEALiVe
    Just mean spirited.
    Pure Evil.
    Did Alan hurt your family or feelings?
    Be careful.
    Dan Druff has been deleting posts and banning trolling members from threads.
    Although, I wouldn't doubt, that you are exempt.
    Can't let you corner the market on evil. Besides I was wishing him well. I truly hope he wins something.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    It's the same question as, "How likely is 120 coin flips likely to result in 80 or more heads?"
    No worries at all Redietz. The answer to this question is 0.000165 (1 in about 6053.3).
    Well, a 1 in 6000 can happen. Not likely, of course, but possible. Now if Alan keeps getting 67% winners the next couple of weeks with "random picks," then, Houston, we have a problem.

    I said this earlier, and I'll say it just one more time, with this particular contest and Station casinos, sometimes one can enter The Twilight Zone. Interpret that any way you like. By posting this here, Mr. Mendelson may have plopped himself into an interesting situation.

    Thanks, tableplay. Much appreciated. And buckle up. Oh, wait, no seat belts allowed in The Twilight Zone. Not sure Rod Serling ever said that, but he should have.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    It's the same question as, "How likely is 120 coin flips likely to result in 80 or more heads?"
    No worries at all Redietz. The answer to this question is 0.000165 (1 in about 6053.3).
    Well, a 1 in 6000 can happen. Not likely, of course, but possible. Now if Alan keeps getting 67% winners the next couple of weeks with "random picks," then, Houston, we have a problem.

    I said this earlier, and I'll say it just one more time, with this particular contest and Station casinos, sometimes one can enter The Twilight Zone. Interpret that any way you like. By posting this here, Mr. Mendelson may have plopped himself into an interesting situation.

    Thanks, tableplay. Much appreciated. And buckle up. Oh, wait, no seat belts allowed in The Twilight Zone. Not sure Rod Serling ever said that, but he should have.
    Sure no problem Redietz, anytime. For a comparison that many forum members can relate to, the chance of getting quad aces in 9/6 DDB video poker is about 1 in 5761 (with optimal discarding).

    Cheers, tp.

  16. #16
    Update: I've continued making random picks and have dropped to 38th place. But I have qualified for five of the drawings for secondary prizes.
    Not a member, effective January 28, 2019

  17. #17
    Update: I'm now tied for 41st place with my random picks and still have qualified for five of 8 drawings.
    Not a member, effective January 28, 2019

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