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Thread: Harrah's Ak-Chin 25x TIER Multiplier

  1. #1
    Don't know if this is a mistake, but Harrah's Ak-Chin has a 25X Tier Credit multiplier promotion posted on their site for Dec. 27th.

    https://www.caesars.com/harrahs-ak-c...m#.XA93BnNOk0P
    Attached Images Attached Images   

  2. #2
    Unfortunately it says offer is by invitation only, which prevents new players to come in and literally earn Seven Stars in a day. Too bad.

  3. #3
    You might be able to call the property and see if you can be added to the offer. Of course, you're still taking a risk in that you may be told you're added, and you're really not, and you won't know until you get there and swipe.

    But yeah, this would be a great avenue to Seven Stars.

    You'd just need 5600 base tier credits ($56,000 coin-in at VP) in a day to get to Seven Stars.

    That's because 5600 x 25 = 140,000
    And you would get 10,000 bonus tiers separate from that, making 150k.

    You'd need less if you already have tiers.

    The only downside is that this is on December 27, so your Seven Stars would only last until 1/31/20.

    If you were to earn it in January, then it would last until 1/31/21!
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #4
    It is worth noting that the games aren't very good there.

    There's a $5 Double Bonus, but that has a lot of variance.

    There's a 9-5 JoB, but that is only 98.45% return, so that's kinda brutal.

    And then there's the fact that they've degraded Seven Stars a lot starting in 2018.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #5
    I'm staying there tonight. One of our friends is having a 20th anniversary party at the new Chop & Brew joint somewhere there, so we're staying in their new high rise. I'm doing something called PAYING for the room since I won't play at Indian casinos.

    But....I couldn't think of a worse way to spend your time than trying to get a machine at that place on a day when every yahoo gambler will be there. It's known for always having big crowds. Anybody stupid enuf to make that trip for this promo unless they live in Maricopa/Chandler/Gilbert/Guadalupe/Sun Lakes, would be making a big mistake. But then again, who said gamblers know much?

    They have two 10/7 DB dollar machines remaining according to one of my "students".

  6. #6
    How much cash would you recommend to have on you in order to make sure you get all the 5600 points, please? is 2K enough?

  7. #7
    So I just looked further into this.

    Unfortunately, according to vpfree2, the Jacks or Better and Double Bonus games are $25/tier credit. So that's not gonna work.

    The only playable game there is the 25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1 Deuces game (known as "LV Airport Deuces"), but these are $1, single-play machines and will take forever. How long? The average player would take about 10 hours to earn 2500 tier credits, so earning 5600 would probably take almost a full 24 hours of play!! Yuck!

    What if you were to just deal with the $25/tier credit thing at Double Bonus and play that? Well, those are also single-play, though those are $5. But it would still take awhile. It would probably take about 13 hours of play to earn those 5600, and the variance would be much higher.

    Bottom line is that you're not going to get to Seven Stars in a day cheaply at Ak-Chin using video poker.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by skyscanner View Post
    How much cash would you recommend to have on you in order to make sure you get all the 5600 points, please? is 2K enough?
    Sadly, no.

    There is a lot of variance involved, AND you would have to play the $5 machines at $25/tier in order to realistically earn 5600 in one day (see the post above).

    The royal flush accounts for approximately 2% of payback at these machines. So if you don't hit a royal (which you usually won't when you're only running 56k coin-in at single-play $5 machines), your expected loss is 1.66-2% worse than the theoretical return -- and even worse if you don't play totally perfectly.

    Let's look at the Double Bonus situation.

    Theoretical return is 99.11%, but royal is 1.67% of that return. Therefore, non-royal return is 97.44%.

    To get 5600 tier credits, you'd need to run 5600 x $25 = $140,000 coin-in.

    Average expected loss: $140,000 x (1-0.9911) = $1,246
    Expected loss if you don't hit a royal: $140,000 x (1-0.9744) = $3,584
    Expected WIN if you hit one royal: $20,000 - $3,584 = $16,416

    Number of hands required: 5600
    Chance of hitting a royal at Double Bonus if played correctly: 1 in 47,619
    Chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE ROYAL in 5600 hands: 1 - (47618/47619)^5600 = 0.1109 = 11.1%

    Bottom line: You have an 88.9% chance of hitting NO royals doing the above, meaning you would lose $3,584 if you ran completely average in everything else.

    What about that dollar deuces game?

    Well, it will be tedious and LONG, and you're still a fairly big underdog to hit one or more royals.

    To get 5600 tiers, you will have to run $56,000 in coin-in. The game pays 98.91%. The royal accounts for 1.84% of that return, and you'll hit it about once every 43,478 hands. That makes the non-royal return 97.07%.

    Average expected loss: $56000 * (1-0.9891) = $610.40
    Average expected loss if you hit NO royals: $56,000 * (1-0.9707) = $1640.80
    Average expected WIN if you hit one royal: $4000 - $1640.80 = $2359.20

    Number of hands required: 11,200
    Chance of hitting a royal at Double Bonus if played correctly: 1 in 43,478
    Chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE ROYAL in 11,200 hands: 1 - (43477/43478)^11200 = 0.2271 = 22.71%

    Still, you're looking at a 77.29% of hitting no royal. And if that happens, you're going to lose $1640.80 on average, and perhaps plenty more if you either run badly or don't play perfectly.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  9. #9
    Dan would you run the cost of reaching Seven Stars without the multiplier of this promotion?

    At Caesars Palace you also have $25/tier point on full pay VP.

    You're missing the true value here: the multiplier. That's IF you were eligible and invited.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Dan would you run the cost of reaching Seven Stars without the multiplier of this promotion?

    At Caesars Palace you also have $25/tier point on full pay VP.

    You're missing the true value here: the multiplier. That's IF you were eligible and invited.
    My calculations were including the multiplier.

    I am not going to renew Seven Stars for 2019.

    In your hypothetical question, if I were renewing Seven Stars, and IF I were eligible, then yes, I would still go to Ak-Chin and do this. I would probably just suck it up and do the 99.11% Double Bonus machine, though the variance would be brutal with $140k coin-in needed.

    If I wanted a lesser variance, I suppose I could just run as much as I could stand at the $1 Deuces machine.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    So I just looked further into this.

    Unfortunately, according to vpfree2, the Jacks or Better and Double Bonus games are $25/tier credit. So that's not gonna work.

    I talked to one of the managers there and according to her, all VP machines are 10$ for 1TP (email attached). Also, it seems that anyone can participate. I asked their TR desk and they said that all you have to do is to show up and and register for the promotion at their kiosks. Their direct phone number is (480)-802-5072.
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  12. #12
    In oder to decrease the variance, one should play multiple lines. Variance decreases as 1/sqrt(N), where N is the number of .. For a 100 multiline, volatility is reduced by 10. It also increases the chances of hitting royals. Casinos know this and they offer reduced pay-tables on multi-lines. For the purpose of this promotion, where achieving the tier credits with 2k bankroll is a must, is it worth to play downgraded pay table multilines or better odds single lines?

  13. #13
    If you go, please check if those machines I mentioned are $10/tier or $25/tier. It's possible something changed, but it's also possible that this woman doesn't know what she's talking about.

    FYI she's correct that there are no multiplay machines.

    In fact, there are only 24 decent machines in the whole joint, so you might want to get there early.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #14
    Just a thought... even if they have 7/5 Bonus Poker at $1/coin it's no worse than what you'll find at Caesars Palace and you'll be getting the multiplier on the tier points. If you want to make Diamond in an hour or Seven Stars in a day this is ideal. I just don't understand why you're making a big deal over what amounts to pennies when the prize is a cheap way to get tier points.

  15. #15
    When I was at ak-chin Wed. night I saw no mention of this promotion so I asked. Anyone can play it on the 27th--just swipe and go play. The "invitations" are mailers for out-of-town guests. You can only play it for the 16 busiest hours of the day and since most of the big aerospace and other companies around here are closed that week, that casino will be saturated.

    I don't know where the vpfree info comes from but I found the two $1 10/7db machines there. Old uprights.

    Aside from this pointless promotion because it's not realistic to think you can just waltz in and play what you choose on a day like that.....the place is really nice since the new parts were opened. The "high tower" rooms are classy and comfortable, and the Chop Block and Brew restaurant off the lobby was excellent. This is overall the nicest most welcoming Harrahs I've visited, and I've been to most or all of them around the country.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    You can only play it for the 16 busiest hours of the day
    TR Ak-Chin told me that the actual promotion extends to the whole gaming day, from 6am to 5:59am and that it is only the registration period that runs from 8am to 11:59pm. In other words, you can play all day, but you must swipe in that 16h window to get the multiplier.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    If you go, please check if those machines I mentioned are $10/tier or $25/tier. It's possible something changed, but it's also possible that this woman doesn't know what she's talking about.
    I have just called TR and they confirmed with the slot attendants that all the VP machines yield 1TP for 10$.

  18. #18
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    I spotted a multi-play machine on their webpage. It shows a 5-play which should reduce the ROR. Would anyone know what the paytable is, please?

  19. #19
    Why are you getting all hot and bothered over this? You will NEVER get the machine you think you want anyway. Have you ever been there? And you actually believe what someone told you over the phone who says they asked their collection of "I wanna go home at 5" slot attendants?

    OMG

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Why are you getting all hot and bothered over this? You will NEVER get the machine you think you want anyway. Have you ever been there? And you actually believe what someone told you over the phone who says they asked their collection of "I wanna go home at 5" slot attendants?

    OMG
    Multiple employees of the casino told me the same thing, that absolutely all of their machines are 10$ to 1TP. Does anyone dispute this? Part of posting on a forum is for information to get corrected by other members if the said information is not true or entirely accurate. For example, we corrected the info that the promotion was for "invited" players only.

    I live in Vegas 365 days/year and having the 7* card would largely compensate the losses from a sub-optimal machine. And the promotion runs for 24h, do you think players can occupy a machine for an entire day? Also. people from where I'm from are said to have "pointy" elbows

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