Harrah's Ak-Chin 25x TIER Multiplier

[RRLover]

Don't know if this is a mistake, but Harrah's Ak-Chin has a 25X Tier Credit multiplier promotion posted on their site for Dec. 27th.

https://www.caesars.com/harrahs-ak-c...m#.XA93BnNOk0P

[Alan Mendelson]

Unfortunately it says offer is by invitation only, which prevents new players to come in and literally earn Seven Stars in a day. Too bad.

[Dan Druff]

You might be able to call the property and see if you can be added to the offer. Of course, you're still taking a risk in that you may be told you're added, and you're really not, and you won't know until you get there and swipe.

But yeah, this would be a great avenue to Seven Stars.

You'd just need 5600 base tier credits ($56,000 coin-in at VP) in a day to get to Seven Stars.

That's because 5600 x 25 = 140,000
And you would get 10,000 bonus tiers separate from that, making 150k.

You'd need less if you already have tiers.

The only downside is that this is on December 27, so your Seven Stars would only last until 1/31/20.

If you were to earn it in January, then it would last until 1/31/21!

[Dan Druff]

It is worth noting that the games aren't very good there.

There's a $5 Double Bonus, but that has a lot of variance.

There's a 9-5 JoB, but that is only 98.45% return, so that's kinda brutal.

And then there's the fact that they've degraded Seven Stars a lot starting in 2018.

[skyscanner]

How much cash would you recommend to have on you in order to make sure you get all the 5600 points, please? is 2K enough?

[Dan Druff]

How much cash would you recommend to have on you in order to make sure you get all the 5600 points, please? is 2K enough?

Sadly, no.

There is a lot of variance involved, AND you would have to play the $5 machines at $25/tier in order to realistically earn 5600 in one day (see the post above).

The royal flush accounts for approximately 2% of payback at these machines. So if you don't hit a royal (which you usually won't when you're only running 56k coin-in at single-play $5 machines), your expected loss is 1.66-2% worse than the theoretical return -- and even worse if you don't play totally perfectly.

Let's look at the Double Bonus situation.

Theoretical return is 99.11%, but royal is 1.67% of that return. Therefore, non-royal return is 97.44%.

To get 5600 tier credits, you'd need to run 5600 x $25 = $140,000 coin-in.

Average expected loss: $140,000 x (1-0.9911) = $1,246
Expected loss if you don't hit a royal: $140,000 x (1-0.9744) = $3,584
Expected WIN if you hit one royal: $20,000 - $3,584 = $16,416

Number of hands required: 5600
Chance of hitting a royal at Double Bonus if played correctly: 1 in 47,619
Chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE ROYAL in 5600 hands: 1 - (47618/47619)^5600 = 0.1109 = 11.1%

Bottom line: You have an 88.9% chance of hitting NO royals doing the above, meaning you would lose $3,584 if you ran completely average in everything else.

What about that dollar deuces game?

Well, it will be tedious and LONG, and you're still a fairly big underdog to hit one or more royals.

To get 5600 tiers, you will have to run $56,000 in coin-in. The game pays 98.91%. The royal accounts for 1.84% of that return, and you'll hit it about once every 43,478 hands. That makes the non-royal return 97.07%.

Average expected loss: $56000 * (1-0.9891) = $610.40
Average expected loss if you hit NO royals: $56,000 * (1-0.9707) = $1640.80
Average expected WIN if you hit one royal: $4000 - $1640.80 = $2359.20

Number of hands required: 11,200
Chance of hitting a royal at Double Bonus if played correctly: 1 in 43,478
Chance of hitting AT LEAST ONE ROYAL in 11,200 hands: 1 - (43477/43478)^11200 = 0.2271 = 22.71%

Still, you're looking at a 77.29% of hitting no royal. And if that happens, you're going to lose $1640.80 on average, and perhaps plenty more if you either run badly or don't play perfectly.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dan would you run the cost of reaching Seven Stars without the multiplier of this promotion?

At Caesars Palace you also have $25/tier point on full pay VP.

You're missing the true value here: the multiplier. That's IF you were eligible and invited.

[Rob.Singer]

I'm staying there tonight. One of our friends is having a 20th anniversary party at the new Chop & Brew joint somewhere there, so we're staying in their new high rise. I'm doing something called PAYING for the room since I won't play at Indian casinos.

But....I couldn't think of a worse way to spend your time than trying to get a machine at that place on a day when every yahoo gambler will be there. It's known for always having big crowds. Anybody stupid enuf to make that trip for this promo unless they live in Maricopa/Chandler/Gilbert/Guadalupe/Sun Lakes, would be making a big mistake. But then again, who said gamblers know much?

They have two 10/7 DB dollar machines remaining according to one of my "students".

[Dan Druff]

So I just looked further into this.

Unfortunately, according to vpfree2, the Jacks or Better and Double Bonus games are $25/tier credit. So that's not gonna work.

The only playable game there is the 25-15-9-4-4-3-2-1 Deuces game (known as "LV Airport Deuces"), but these are $1, single-play machines and will take forever. How long? The average player would take about 10 hours to earn 2500 tier credits, so earning 5600 would probably take almost a full 24 hours of play!! Yuck!

What if you were to just deal with the $25/tier credit thing at Double Bonus and play that? Well, those are also single-play, though those are $5. But it would still take awhile. It would probably take about 13 hours of play to earn those 5600, and the variance would be much higher.

Bottom line is that you're not going to get to Seven Stars in a day cheaply at Ak-Chin using video poker.

[skyscanner]

So I just looked further into this.

Unfortunately, according to vpfree2, the Jacks or Better and Double Bonus games are $25/tier credit. So that's not gonna work.

I talked to one of the managers there and according to her, all VP machines are 10$ for 1TP (email attached). Also, it seems that anyone can participate. I asked their TR desk and they said that all you have to do is to show up and and register for the promotion at their kiosks. Their direct phone number is (480)-802-5072.

[skyscanner]

In oder to decrease the variance, one should play multiple lines. Variance decreases as 1/sqrt(N), where N is the number of .. For a 100 multiline, volatility is reduced by 10. It also increases the chances of hitting royals. Casinos know this and they offer reduced pay-tables on multi-lines. For the purpose of this promotion, where achieving the tier credits with 2k bankroll is a must, is it worth to play downgraded pay table multilines or better odds single lines?

[Dan Druff]

If you go, please check if those machines I mentioned are $10/tier or $25/tier. It's possible something changed, but it's also possible that this woman doesn't know what she's talking about.

FYI she's correct that there are no multiplay machines.

In fact, there are only 24 decent machines in the whole joint, so you might want to get there early.

[skyscanner]

If you go, please check if those machines I mentioned are $10/tier or $25/tier. It's possible something changed, but it's also possible that this woman doesn't know what she's talking about.

I have just called TR and they confirmed with the slot attendants that all the VP machines yield 1TP for 10$.

[Alan Mendelson]

Just a thought... even if they have 7/5 Bonus Poker at $1/coin it's no worse than what you'll find at Caesars Palace and you'll be getting the multiplier on the tier points. If you want to make Diamond in an hour or Seven Stars in a day this is ideal. I just don't understand why you're making a big deal over what amounts to pennies when the prize is a cheap way to get tier points.

[Rob.Singer]

When I was at ak-chin Wed. night I saw no mention of this promotion so I asked. Anyone can play it on the 27th--just swipe and go play. The "invitations" are mailers for out-of-town guests. You can only play it for the 16 busiest hours of the day and since most of the big aerospace and other companies around here are closed that week, that casino will be saturated.

I don't know where the vpfree info comes from but I found the two $1 10/7db machines there. Old uprights.

Aside from this pointless promotion because it's not realistic to think you can just waltz in and play what you choose on a day like that.....the place is really nice since the new parts were opened. The "high tower" rooms are classy and comfortable, and the Chop Block and Brew restaurant off the lobby was excellent. This is overall the nicest most welcoming Harrahs I've visited, and I've been to most or all of them around the country.

[skyscanner]

You can only play it for the 16 busiest hours of the day

TR Ak-Chin told me that the actual promotion extends to the whole gaming day, from 6am to 5:59am and that it is only the registration period that runs from 8am to 11:59pm. In other words, you can play all day, but you must swipe in that 16h window to get the multiplier.

[skyscanner]

I spotted a multi-play machine on their webpage. It shows a 5-play which should reduce the ROR. Would anyone know what the paytable is, please?

[Rob.Singer]

Why are you getting all hot and bothered over this? You will NEVER get the machine you think you want anyway. Have you ever been there? And you actually believe what someone told you over the phone who says they asked their collection of "I wanna go home at 5" slot attendants?

OMG

[skyscanner]

Why are you getting all hot and bothered over this? You will NEVER get the machine you think you want anyway. Have you ever been there? And you actually believe what someone told you over the phone who says they asked their collection of "I wanna go home at 5" slot attendants?

OMG

Multiple employees of the casino told me the same thing, that absolutely all of their machines are 10$ to 1TP. Does anyone dispute this? Part of posting on a forum is for information to get corrected by other members if the said information is not true or entirely accurate. For example, we corrected the info that the promotion was for "invited" players only.

I live in Vegas 365 days/year and having the 7* card would largely compensate the losses from a sub-optimal machine. And the promotion runs for 24h, do you think players can occupy a machine for an entire day? Also. people from where I'm from are said to have "pointy" elbows

[Dan Druff]

Skyscanner, your attachment didn't work. Can you re-upload it?

The tier credit thing will be easy to see after a few hands. You might be right, but employees at Caesars properties are notoriously clueless, so I'd take everything they tell you with a grain of salt. I'm even still semi-skeptical that anyone can play this. I'm also skeptical about the promo running the entire gaming day.

I still have an outside interest in doing this, even though 7* benefits are shit nowadays. Depends if these machines you think you've found are really there. It's possible that the 5 play machine has such crappy paytables that they wouldn't be worth playing, even with the reduced variance.

Also note that the variance isn't as reduced as you think. It just shifts around. The variance of the draw goes way down, but the variance of the deal goes way up.

Rob, you are from that area. Could you perhaps find some time to go down there and track down if these machines still exist (such as the 10-7 ddb you claim), as well as look at the $25/tier thing?

Hell, Rob, I'll even meet you in person if I come down there. It's probably too late to get a room, since that employee told skyscanner that they're sold out, but I can just grab a cheap place nearby and stay only one night. Basically I'll drive down there late at night on the 26th, grab the best machines at 6am sharp, hammer the amount of play I want, then go to hotel and sleep, and then drive back to LA.

Skyscanner, if I do come down, we can even run this stuff together and protect each other's machines.

But I'd love to know the truth here.