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Thread: Parkwest Casino Baccarat Promotion

  1. #1
    "Walter Cronkite could not get a job in the main stream media today." Alan Dershowitz

  2. #2
    Yeah, that is a good promo...I would totally do it if I were in the Bay Area, but I wouldn’t travel just to do it.

    Baccarat is a low variance game. Gimme $500 to play $10,000 through—I’ll do it night and day.

  3. #3
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    Seems like a real AP for higher limit bac players.
    What, Me Worry?

  4. #4
    You don’t even have to be a high limit player. You can just buy in for $10,000 and then play $100/hand if you want.

  5. #5
    With a house edge of 1% by betting banker it's worth about $450. A good promo for a local but my take is they could easily nix you from continuing on it. If you play though 10K and walk, then try to make reservations for the next one they could easily tell you that 40 players have already reserved.
    "Walter Cronkite could not get a job in the main stream media today." Alan Dershowitz

  6. #6
    The rules don't even say you have to play though the 10k. I assume they must give you 10,550k in casino play chips? Perhaps not and they just give you 550 in casino play chips.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I'm curious mickey, how would you play a promotion like this. after your buy in you get $500 in lucky chips that can only be used for baccarat. if you first bet all them you will probably end up with about $225 in cashable chips. if you continue playing at a $100 minimum table every time you make a $100 bet you have an expectation of losing a little over $1.00 (house edge). but if you stop playing right after you've bet all the lucky chips or very soon after you would expose yourself as an AP milking a promotion. so how would you do it?


    what I've seen of mini bac games is that they're very popular and it's very hard to find a low minimum table.
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 12-16-2018 at 10:21 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  8. #8
    It says “all buyin amounts and bonuses paid in Lucky Chips”

    I read that to mean the “lucky chips” are not cashable and you will have to play through the whole $10,000 at least once. That’s reasonable.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Dankyone View Post
    It says “all buyin amounts and bonuses paid in Lucky Chips”
    right I missed that. because of that I don't think it's worthwhile
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  10. #10
    Actually, I thought about this some more and I have changed my opinion.
    If you bet all $10,500 on the Banker which carries the lowest house edge of 1.06% you have a dollar loss expectation of $111.30.
    And they gave you $500.
    So you have an expected dollar gain of $388.70.



    So, the next question is should you bet as small as possible or very large.

    And the answer is you should bet as small as possible to keep variance at its lowest.

    But, of course, that's going to take more time - so you have to weigh it against the value of your time.



    So, it's a play worth slightly less than $400.
    Worthwhile for most.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  11. #11
    Here's the exact wording from the promo:

    All buy-in amounts and bonuses are paid out in Lucky Chips. Limit one buy-in bonus per customer. Lucky chip purchased through this promotion may only be wagered on Baccarat.
    You get $10,500 promo chips (plus a lol buffet, which is probably awful) for $10,000 if you play on Wednesday.

    You get $11,550 promo chips (with no buffet) for $11,000 if you play on Friday.

    Both games only take place from 8pm-10pm, which is a bit of a pain in the ass.

    Both are about the same value, but the Friday is slightly better. But let's focus on the Wednesday one.

    Presumably these are "play til you lose" chips (if they're not they're terrible), which means you need to cycle a lot more than $10,500. You would need to bet enough to where $10,500 worth of chips lose (and you accumulate real chips in the meantime when you win).

    The banker house edge is 1.06%, as Half Smoke mentioned.

    Also important is the fact that the banker bet will lose 44.62% of the time. That's the only way the promo chips will burn. If you tie (9.52%), nothing happens, and if you win (45.86%), you keep the promo chips AND get real chips (which you keep and don't bet).

    This means each $100 promo chip bet will disappear (on average) at a rate of $44.62 each bet. This means it will take 235.32 bets of $100 to exhaust the promo chips, on average.

    In 235.32 bets, you will win 45.86% of the time, but will only get $95 per win. So: (235.32 * 0.4586 * $95) = $10,252.19

    So on average, it's worth about $252 -- or about half the bonus amount.

    The longer you end up playing, the better you will do. Obviously the absolute worst result would be 105 banker bets at $100, all of which lose. You'd clear it in those 105 hands, but you'd walk away with $0 (of course, this would never happen, as you'd never lose 105 in a row!)

    I wonder what happens if the 8pm-10pm window expires and you have promo chips left. Are you allowed to keep playing? I would hope so!

    There will obviously be some variance here, but baccarat is a low-variance game if you keep your bets constant, due to the evenish payouts.

    Bottom line: It's probably worth doing if you're in the area, but otherwise not.

    Livermore (the location of Parkwest Casino 580) is about halfway between San Jose and Stockton, pretty much directly east of San Francisco. It's about 340 miles from Los Angeles. The vehicle expense driving there round trip would cost about as much as the edge you'd get.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #12
    It doesn’t explain precisely how the “lucky chips” work. If they are “play till you lose” than yes, you will have to play through a lot more than $10,000. It’s stilll a decent promo, but I wouldn’t travel there for it. I have friends in San Jose, though, and I would consider driving out there when in town.

    I doubt it will last very long.
    Last edited by Dankyone; 12-16-2018 at 05:52 PM.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I'm curious mickey, how would you play a promotion like this. after your buy in you get $500 in lucky chips that can only be used for baccarat. if you first bet all them you will probably end up with about $225 in cashable chips. if you continue playing at a $100 minimum table every time you make a $100 bet you have an expectation of losing a little over $1.00 (house edge). but if you stop playing right after you've bet all the lucky chips or very soon after you would expose yourself as an AP milking a promotion. so how would you do it?


    what I've seen of mini bac games is that they're very popular and it's very hard to find a low minimum table.
    Were I to run into something like this I would just do it once then move on. They are obviously looking for suckers. Very easy for them to profile who is a sucker or not. If they figure you for being too smart the next time you try to book it they'll just tell you they already have 40 players.
    "Walter Cronkite could not get a job in the main stream media today." Alan Dershowitz

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I'm curious mickey, how would you play a promotion like this. after your buy in you get $500 in lucky chips that can only be used for baccarat. if you first bet all them you will probably end up with about $225 in cashable chips. if you continue playing at a $100 minimum table every time you make a $100 bet you have an expectation of losing a little over $1.00 (house edge). but if you stop playing right after you've bet all the lucky chips or very soon after you would expose yourself as an AP milking a promotion. so how would you do it?


    what I've seen of mini bac games is that they're very popular and it's very hard to find a low minimum table.
    Were I to run into something like this I would just do it once then move on. They are obviously looking for suckers. Very easy for them to profile who is a sucker or not. If they figure you for being too smart the next time you try to book it they'll just tell you they already have 40 players.
    I agree, but itís worthwhile to do if youíre in the area.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Dankyone View Post
    It doesn’t explain precisely how the “lucky chips” work. If they are “play till you lose” than yes, you will have to play through a lot more than $10,000. It’s stilll a decent promo, but I wouldn’t travel there for it. I have friends in San Jose, though, and I would consider driving out there when in town.

    I doubt it will last very long.
    It's almost surely play til you lose.

    If you have to surrender these chips upon betting them (whether they win or lose), then this is a hugely -EV promotion, and people (even the recreational players) will scream bloody murder.

    There's no way it's "roll over once" because they have no way of tracking that.

    Table games are always "play til you lose" or "play once, then confiscate".

    These chips clearly have no cash value and are only usable to play baccarat.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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