With all the discussion of EV and return tables, do you really feel you will ever play enough to experience and see the true "return" from a game?


Lets look at the most standard of Video Poker games - Jacks or Better 9/6 Full Pay

In order to get to the full 99.5439% return a total of 1,661,102,543,100 combinations of play need to be realized.

Even if you play 1,661,102,543,100 hands the player will not see 1,661,102,543,100 combinations as many hands can repeat resulting in more losses / winnings.

If anything the "return" of a game or "expected return" is just something to chase. ""I'm playing this game it has a 99.54% return I'm not going to lose much."" or ""For every $100 I put in I'm only going to lose Fifty Cents.""

Are these "return values" figured to help compulsive gamblers feel that chasing their losses will help them get closer to this "return?"
Or do these "return values" actually just create an illusion that these games are close to beatable with the help of a small percentage of a kick back?

These machines have no memory (at least they are not supposed to) so they don't keep track of XXX many hands being played so X should be paid out here. While the probability math says it should come, it does not mean that it definitely will.

The probability says there will be more losing hands and there is simply no guarantee of a winner no matter how "correct" the hold.

So why chase a return table?

Being on the plus side of variance is the place to me... That is what to look for... That is what will win regardless of the pay table...