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Thread: Advantage Play -- Obiously Real

  1. #1
    As a parting gift:

    The Wise Guys Contest cumulative season record for 49 experienced sports handicappers, at least half of whom are well known in sports handicapping circles:

    892 Wins 773 Losses Against the Spread (ATS)

    Needless to say, the contest was public, with everyone's selections posted mid-week.

    This 892-773 ATS record is 53.6%, well above the 52.4% needed to win versus the standard 11/10. However, this does not tell the entire story. These handicappers were all locked into a single Monday line, which was disadvantageous in that (A) nobody could shop for numbers and (B) underdog players were at a distinct disadvantage as favorite money is more common during the week. Had the players been allowed to either shop for numbers or wait until later in the week, the cumulative record would have improved by a minimum of 15-20 games. It may possibly have improved by much, much more.

    In addition, most players have access to something better than 11/10. My standard wagers are made at -108. Various books offer -105 on particular days or for particular hours. So the 52.4% number often quoted as necessary to win is actually way too high. Some books also offer rebates on losses every six months.

    To the extent that experienced sports handicappers are "APs," one can put to bed the idea that "APing" is some kind of myth.

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    To the extent that experienced sports handicappers are "APs," one can put to bed the idea that "APing" is some kind of myth.
    This is the exact type of dumb approach that discredits AP claims. No one ever said Aping is some kind of a myth. We’ve all read about Billy Walters, Phil Ivey, Don Johnson, etc. These are all well known advantage player’s that netted millions in profits on AP plays.

    Netting millions of dollars on an AP play is great till it’s exposed and over. If these people make a run for it with their millions and don’t end up in jail or broke looking for another golden goose by the time they reach their golden years, then good for them.

    I’m also not talking about two-bit AP’ing traveling all over the country etching out a livable existence for a loner. Being forced to still having to work casinos to survive in your golden years in my eyes is a sad ending, especially after spending most of your adult life in casinos. No different than being forced to work your job till you die to survive.

    Having a winning year or a winning season only means just that, you had a winning year or a winning season. Be it luck or be it brains, you need a hell of a lot more winning years or seasons then losing ones to raise a healthy family and be a able to retire safely. When gambling is involved that result is never confirmed fact till it becomes a fact, never knowing for certain the next result. Calculators may say one thing but it still has to happen.

    Billy Walters, I think it’s safe enough to say he made it to retirement with plenty of money, as long as he gets out of jail. Certainly there are several more I and most of you don’t even know about that made it, thanks to the good ole days in casino AP. But I’d be willing to guess that list is very selective and short.

    With casinos investing in technology and getting schooled on AP plays, you could only guess AP’ing will become harder, if not to petty to make a living out of it.

    Let me know where Phil Ivey and Don Johnson or any other self-proclaimed AP’er on these forums claiming healthy success and fortune today are when they reach their golden age securely with enough money to keep them healthy and safe till they die. Then you could brag about your winning years or seasons from AP'ing.

    If you (Reditz) lost all you won this season next season would it be safe to say AP’ing is a myth?

    "As a parting gift" Think about what you’re saying before you blow smoke up your own ass.
    Last edited by blackhole; 01-02-2019 at 10:47 PM.

  3. #3
    It's safe to say there are different levels of successful APs. Some people are very happy and successful getting $40,000 or $60,000 a year being an AP while others need the same amount of income PLUS health and retirement benefits. No one can pass judgment. You do what's best for you and you wish others the best for what they do.

    I belong to a big union, SAG-AFTRA, in which there are people who earn $3,000 a year and people who earn $3-million or more to shoot a movie in two months time. What you appreciate is that regardless of the income level they all have talent and they all have their levels of success.

    If an AP tells me he is successful earning $50,000 a year without benefits I wish him the best for his success.

  4. #4
    Yeah, but why do they seek THIS way of life, as opposed to selling out and working for The Man?
    What, Me Worry?

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's safe to say there are different levels of successful APs. Some people are very happy and successful getting $40,000 or $60,000 a year being an AP while others need the same amount of income PLUS health and retirement benefits. No one can pass judgment. You do what's best for you and you wish others the best for what they do.

    I belong to a big union, SAG-AFTRA, in which there are people who earn $3,000 a year and people who earn $3-million or more to shoot a movie in two months time. What you appreciate is that regardless of the income level they all have talent and they all have their levels of success.

    If an AP tells me he is successful earning $50,000 a year without benefits I wish him the best for his success.
    Benefits are not free for anyone. If you are the company owner then you pay cash for them. If you are an employee then you pay for them with your labor. None of it is free. Alan, you guys always talk about benefits like it's free candy. It's not. You pay for it.

    Alan, here's a question to ponder. Rob says he made 100K for ten years but through creative accounting payed no income tax. Would he have been better off to show a 30K profit and stick it all in a tax free retirement account--which any professional gambler is eligible to do?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #6
    No one said benefits are free. But be honest, how many pro gamblers have retirement accounts? Mickey if you were to quit work now what would you get each month from your retirement account? Yes, you can include social security.

    From CNBC:

    "A shocking 21 percent of Americans have nothing at all saved for the future, and another 10 percent have less than $5,000 socked away for their golden years, the study found."

    Now are you going to tell me that gamblers beat this?

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    To the extent that experienced sports handicappers are "APs," one can put to bed the idea that "APing" is some kind of myth.
    This is the exact type of dumb approach that discredits AP claims. No one ever said Aping is some kind of a myth. We’ve all read about Billy Walters, Phil Ivey, Don Johnson, etc. These are all well known advantage player’s that netted millions in profits on AP plays.

    Netting millions of dollars on an AP play is great till it’s exposed and over. If these people make a run for it with their millions and don’t end up in jail or broke looking for another golden goose by the time they reach their golden years, then good for them.

    I’m also not talking about two-bit AP’ing traveling all over the country etching out a livable existence for a loner. Being forced to still having to work casinos to survive in your golden years in my eyes is a sad ending, especially after spending most of your adult life in casinos. No different than being forced to work your job till you die to survive.

    Having a winning year or a winning season only means just that, you had a winning year or a winning season. Be it luck or be it brains, you need a hell of a lot more winning years or seasons then losing ones to raise a healthy family and be a able to retire safely. When gambling is involved that result is never confirmed fact till it becomes a fact, never knowing for certain the next result. Calculators may say one thing but it still has to happen.

    Billy Walters, I think it’s safe enough to say he made it to retirement with plenty of money, as long as he gets out of jail. Certainly there are several more I and most of you don’t even know about that made it, thanks to the good ole days in casino AP. But I’d be willing to guess that list is very selective and short.

    With casinos investing in technology and getting schooled on AP plays, you could only guess AP’ing will become harder, if not to petty to make a living out of it.

    Let me know where Phil Ivey and Don Johnson or any other self-proclaimed AP’er on these forums claiming healthy success and fortune today are when they reach their golden age securely with enough money to keep them healthy and safe till they die. Then you could brag about your winning years or seasons from AP'ing.

    If you (Reditz) lost all you won this season next season would it be safe to say AP’ing is a myth?

    "As a parting gift" Think about what you’re saying before you blow smoke up your own ass.
    With the current spread of sportsbetting across the USA I'm willing to bet Redietz wishes he was in his 20's again. Profitable sportsbettors have been around since the invention of the money line and point spread. There will be profitable sportsbettors in the world a thousand years from now. And it has been exposed for just as long. So your hypothesis, blackhole, doesn't carry water.

    Billy Walters is 73 years old and just went to jail. Why didn't he retire from it at an earlier age? One reason and one reason only. He didn't want to. He did not voluntarily retire from sportsbetting. The government temporarily retired him. And for all we know he may still be doing it from prison. So, blackhole, your hypothesis that people have to keep doing it into old age doesn't hold water. People do this sort of thing BECAUSE THEY WANT TO.

    I can go back home and live very comfortably sitting in a rocking chair for the rest of my life anytime I want to. BH, who in the hell wants to go sit in a rocking chair and bitch and moan their years away about others like you do? That's for bitter old fools like you. I'm active and I plan to stay that way as long as I can. I enjoy what I do.

    Remember the saying, BH. Those that can DO. Those that can't criticize. As a parting gift think about what you are saying before you blow smoke up your own ass.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    No one said benefits are free. But be honest, how many pro gamblers have retirement accounts? Mickey if you were to quit work now what would you get each month from your retirement account? Yes, you can include social security.

    From CNBC:

    "A shocking 21 percent of Americans have nothing at all saved for the future, and another 10 percent have less than $5,000 socked away for their golden years, the study found."

    Now are you going to tell me that gamblers beat this?
    Absolutely. Which would you rather have? A million dollar retirement account or a million dollars cash? I still have my bankroll whether I retire from gambling or not.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #9
    Which would you rather have... a million dollar retirement account or a million dollars cash?

    If you really had a million dollars you'd know the retirement account would be better.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Which would you rather have... a million dollar retirement account or a million dollars cash?

    If you really had a million dollars you'd know the retirement account would be better.
    You need to define what a million dollar retirement account is, in order for someone to answer the question. Otherwise it could be one in the same with the cash.

  11. #11
    The typical forum custodian Mickey response above trying to sweep up everything anyone says he doesn’t want to hear or agrees with and then twist it around to fit his narration.

    First of all, I never said sports betting winners and let’s add losers were going anywhere. No one here personally cares how old you think Reditz wishes he was. You don’t know a single financial fact about Reditz. In fact, you don’t know a single financial fact about anyone on these forums who you conveniently back up and collude with via PM, just to promote your own ego.

    Billy Walters successfully built a sports-betting empire in the ole days. I’m certain the casinos are being more cautious now after learning how he pulled it off. Keeping a watchful eye on big bettors, limits, modern technology, just to name a few precautions. Casinos are billion-dollar industries all based on offering games they expect to eventually win. Don’t worry they will fix any leaks their concerned about and even get to evict anyone they want at will who they think is part of the problem.

    For some reason Billy Walters took his profits and started to diversify all over the place. It’s during this stage he decided to fuck with the big boys on Wall Street. Not only did they crush him, he ended up in prison. I doubt he could ever end up broke, and gave him credit for one of the best gambling AP moves ever.

    Casinos are cleaning up the good ole days step by step. Changing game rules around, paying attention to marketing schemes, comps, etc.etc. I think in the near future the only AP’s still working casinos will be the AP’s they don’t care about. Like Mickey.

    Don’t forget, they still want and need AP’s telling the world how they could take advantage of them. Hell, they even sell AP books, cards, seminars, magazines in every room, at their casinos telling people how to beat them. Go fiqure…

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Which would you rather have... a million dollar retirement account or a million dollars cash?

    If you really had a million dollars you'd know the retirement account would be better.
    Retirement accounts run out on people. A million cash is worth a lot more than a million in payments over 30 years.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's safe to say there are different levels of successful APs. Some people are very happy and successful getting $40,000 or $60,000 a year being an AP while others need the same amount of income PLUS health and retirement benefits. No one can pass judgment. You do what's best for you and you wish others the best for what they do.

    I belong to a big union, SAG-AFTRA, in which there are people who earn $3,000 a year and people who earn $3-million or more to shoot a movie in two months time. What you appreciate is that regardless of the income level they all have talent and they all have their levels of success.

    If an AP tells me he is successful earning $50,000 a year without benefits I wish him the best for his success.
    Benefits are not free for anyone. If you are the company owner then you pay cash for them. If you are an employee then you pay for them with your labor. None of it is free. Alan, you guys always talk about benefits like it's free candy. It's not. You pay for it.

    Alan, here's a question to ponder. Rob says he made 100K for ten years but through creative accounting payed no income tax. Would he have been better off to show a 30K profit and stick it all in a tax free retirement account--which any professional gambler is eligible to do?
    Leave it to a slug like mickey to give excuses for being on the government dole and always having been a lazy white man that never worked.

    And get your lies straight. I netted about $94k/yr., I wrote almost all of it off using expenses that I would have incurred whether I was a professional gambler or not--thru creative and LEGAL accounting because I was also a writer and consultant--and we certainly did pay income taxes on investment and other income a bum like you'd never comprehend, as well as on my wife's work income.

    I can see why you drink. You have this idea that you're some kind of rogue expert on everything gambling, and because you like to fantasize about yourself being a "gambling outlaw" of sorts, you tell yourself the 8 ap's who post here are as impressed with your slew of tall tales as you think they are with kew's spews.

    Wise up fool.

  14. #14
    Attention mickeycrimm and MaxPen. If you think think cash is better than money in a retirement account explain that to OJ. Also explain that to your accountant who tries to minimize your taxes every year.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Which would you rather have... a million dollar retirement account or a million dollars cash?

    If you really had a million dollars you'd know the retirement account would be better.
    Retirement accounts run out on people. A million cash is worth a lot more than a million in payments over 30 years.
    Is there any limits to how dumb this dropout is?

    He'll never be mistaken for a Financial Advisor, that's for sure.....

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's safe to say there are different levels of successful APs. Some people are very happy and successful getting $40,000 or $60,000 a year being an AP while others need the same amount of income PLUS health and retirement benefits. No one can pass judgment. You do what's best for you and you wish others the best for what they do.

    I belong to a big union, SAG-AFTRA, in which there are people who earn $3,000 a year and people who earn $3-million or more to shoot a movie in two months time. What you appreciate is that regardless of the income level they all have talent and they all have their levels of success.

    If an AP tells me he is successful earning $50,000 a year without benefits I wish him the best for his success.
    Benefits are not free for anyone. If you are the company owner then you pay cash for them. If you are an employee then you pay for them with your labor. None of it is free. Alan, you guys always talk about benefits like it's free candy. It's not. You pay for it.

    Alan, here's a question to ponder. Rob says he made 100K for ten years but through creative accounting payed no income tax. Would he have been better off to show a 30K profit and stick it all in a tax free retirement account--which any professional gambler is eligible to do?
    Leave it to a slug like mickey to give excuses for being on the government dole and always having been a lazy white man that never worked.

    And get your lies straight. I netted about $94k/yr., I wrote almost all of it off using expenses that I would have incurred whether I was a professional gambler or not--thru creative and LEGAL accounting because I was also a writer and consultant--and we certainly did pay income taxes on investment and other income a bum like you'd never comprehend, as well as on my wife's work income.

    I can see why you drink. You have this idea that you're some kind of rogue expert on everything gambling, and because you like to fantasize about yourself being a "gambling outlaw" of sorts, you tell yourself the 8 ap's who post here are as impressed with your slew of tall tales as you think they are with kew's spews.

    Wise up fool.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Attention mickeycrimm and MaxPen. If you think think cash is better than money in a retirement account explain that to OJ. Also explain that to your accountant who tries to minimize your taxes every year.
    Is that why lottery winners are advised to take, and do take, the lump sum, which works out to be about a third of what the payments would be? What priority do you think Warren Buffet gives to retirement accounts on his investment list?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It's safe to say there are different levels of successful APs. Some people are very happy and successful getting $40,000 or $60,000 a year being an AP while others need the same amount of income PLUS health and retirement benefits. No one can pass judgment. You do what's best for you and you wish others the best for what they do.

    I belong to a big union, SAG-AFTRA, in which there are people who earn $3,000 a year and people who earn $3-million or more to shoot a movie in two months time. What you appreciate is that regardless of the income level they all have talent and they all have their levels of success.

    If an AP tells me he is successful earning $50,000 a year without benefits I wish him the best for his success.
    Benefits are not free for anyone. If you are the company owner then you pay cash for them. If you are an employee then you pay for them with your labor. None of it is free. Alan, you guys always talk about benefits like it's free candy. It's not. You pay for it.

    Alan, here's a question to ponder. Rob says he made 100K for ten years but through creative accounting payed no income tax. Would he have been better off to show a 30K profit and stick it all in a tax free retirement account--which any professional gambler is eligible to do?
    Leave it to a slug like mickey to give excuses for being on the government dole and always having been a lazy white man that never worked.

    And get your lies straight. I netted about $94k/yr., I wrote almost all of it off using expenses that I would have incurred whether I was a professional gambler or not--thru creative and LEGAL accounting because I was also a writer and consultant--and we certainly did pay income taxes on investment and other income a bum like you'd never comprehend, as well as on my wife's work income.

    I can see why you drink. You have this idea that you're some kind of rogue expert on everything gambling, and because you like to fantasize about yourself being a "gambling outlaw" of sorts, you tell yourself the 8 ap's who post here are as impressed with your slew of tall tales as you think they are with kew's spews.

    Wise up fool.
    Well, I have been on GWAE twice. How many times have you been on the show?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Attention mickeycrimm and MaxPen. If you think think cash is better than money in a retirement account explain that to OJ. Also explain that to your accountant who tries to minimize your taxes every year.
    You still haven't defined your "million dollar retirement account". If you could do that your question could be answered.
    There's no tax on cash carried over into the next year.
    There's a crap ton of variables. I get that you have been sold on having a pension account. It is good for people who don't understand investments, markets, lack discipline, and need to have a security blanket. Similar to getting an allowance from Mom and Dad once a month.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    Benefits are not free for anyone. If you are the company owner then you pay cash for them. If you are an employee then you pay for them with your labor. None of it is free. Alan, you guys always talk about benefits like it's free candy. It's not. You pay for it.

    Alan, here's a question to ponder. Rob says he made 100K for ten years but through creative accounting payed no income tax. Would he have been better off to show a 30K profit and stick it all in a tax free retirement account--which any professional gambler is eligible to do?
    Leave it to a slug like mickey to give excuses for being on the government dole and always having been a lazy white man that never worked.

    And get your lies straight. I netted about $94k/yr., I wrote almost all of it off using expenses that I would have incurred whether I was a professional gambler or not--thru creative and LEGAL accounting because I was also a writer and consultant--and we certainly did pay income taxes on investment and other income a bum like you'd never comprehend, as well as on my wife's work income.

    I can see why you drink. You have this idea that you're some kind of rogue expert on everything gambling, and because you like to fantasize about yourself being a "gambling outlaw" of sorts, you tell yourself the 8 ap's who post here are as impressed with your slew of tall tales as you think they are with kew's spews.

    Wise up fool.
    Well, I have been on GWAE twice. How many times have you been on the show?
    Now THERE'S a resume' to be proud of.

    Tell us....was the income taxable? And did you record Munchkin's voice so you can use it to scare away grown men you owe money to?

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