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Thread: Nzero

  1. #1
    There is a very common metric used in statistics called the coefficient of variation. It's the standard deviation divided by the mean (sd/mean) and it is a very good measure of dispersion since it normalizes the standard deviation. Well guess what, Nzero is nothing more than the square of this very commonly used metric. That is, Nzero=CV^2=sd^2/mean^2. IMHO, below is a nice interpretation of Nzero. There is a massive body of statistical work about manufacturing processes and measures that express when a manufacturing process is in control or out of control, so that number of defects per units made estimation and minimization can be done. I guess in manufacturing, SCV, the square of the coefficient of variation (Nzero in Black Jack circles) would get a lot of interpretation and treatment as a metric, and this can probably be leveraged in AP circles to get a good handle on ROR for various casino games besides just black jack and that is where my interest in further reading stems from. So in a nutshell Nzero seems to be sparsely alluded to in gambling, but in reality it is very common in manufacturing and so there is actually a lot of stuff you can learn from it, by looking at the huge body of work about it in manufacturing and then hopefully applying it to AP stuff.

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  2. #2
    Using Nzero in gambling environments is a far cry from the Six Sigma (getting defects per million down to one) metric used in manufacturing processes--where mechanical efforts are accurately measurable. What an AP does cannot be tracked unless there is always an alert efficiency expert at his side, and even then, outside influences come into play.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    There is a very common metric used in statistics called the coefficient of variation. It's the standard deviation divided by the mean (sd/mean) and it is a very good measure of dispersion since it normalizes the standard deviation. Well guess what, Nzero is nothing more than the square of this very commonly used metric. That is, Nzero=CV^2=sd^2/mean^2. IMHO, below is a nice interpretation of Nzero. There is a massive body of statistical work about manufacturing processes and measures that express when a manufacturing process is in control or out of control, so that number of defects per units made estimation and minimization can be done. I guess in manufacturing, SCV, the square of the coefficient of variation (Nzero in Black Jack circles) would get a lot of interpretation and treatment as a metric, and this can probably be leveraged in AP circles to get a good handle on ROR for various casino games besides just black jack and that is where my interest in further reading stems from. So in a nutshell Nzero seems to be sparsely alluded to in gambling, but in reality it is very common in manufacturing and so there is actually a lot of stuff you can learn from it, by looking at the huge body of work about it in manufacturing and then hopefully applying it to AP stuff.

    Name:  nzero_as_cvsquared.jpg
Views: 99
Size:  91.9 KB
    In the field of blackjack play, Don Schlesinger has done extensive work involving N0 (N-zero). It is covered extensively in his book, Blackjack Attack3, which is one of the few books from several decades ago, that is still very pertinent to today's evolving game. Blackjack Attack 3 and my dear friend (sarcasm emoji) Qfit's software are the "must haves" for any serious blackjack player.

    And by the way, admittedly, I don't understand all the formulas involved, or even that you just posted. I am not a math guy. I am very comfortable with using the math of those smarter than me.

    So my simplified understanding of N0 as it relates to blackjack is that it is the number of trials necessary for results to overcome the short term variance that Alan and others seem to relish. It is where the math really begins to take over and we get to the long-term.

    So when evaluating different games with different rules and conditions, we will have different N0's. Norm's software does this instantly and provides a N0. The higher that N0, the worse the game is.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    There is a very common metric used in statistics called the coefficient of variation. It's the standard deviation divided by the mean (sd/mean) and it is a very good measure of dispersion since it normalizes the standard deviation. Well guess what, Nzero is nothing more than the square of this very commonly used metric. That is, Nzero=CV^2=sd^2/mean^2. IMHO, below is a nice interpretation of Nzero. There is a massive body of statistical work about manufacturing processes and measures that express when a manufacturing process is in control or out of control, so that number of defects per units made estimation and minimization can be done. I guess in manufacturing, SCV, the square of the coefficient of variation (Nzero in Black Jack circles) would get a lot of interpretation and treatment as a metric, and this can probably be leveraged in AP circles to get a good handle on ROR for various casino games besides just black jack and that is where my interest in further reading stems from. So in a nutshell Nzero seems to be sparsely alluded to in gambling, but in reality it is very common in manufacturing and so there is actually a lot of stuff you can learn from it, by looking at the huge body of work about it in manufacturing and then hopefully applying it to AP stuff.

    Name:  nzero_as_cvsquared.jpg
Views: 99
Size:  91.9 KB
    In the field of blackjack play, Don Schlesinger has done extensive work involving N0 (N-zero). It is covered extensively in his book, Blackjack Attack3, which is one of the few books from several decades ago, that is still very pertinent to today's evolving game. Blackjack Attack 3 and my dear friend (sarcasm emoji) Qfit's software are the "must haves" for any serious blackjack player.

    And by the way, admittedly, I don't understand all the formulas involved, or even that you just posted. I am not a math guy. I am very comfortable with using the math of those smarter than me.

    So my simplified understanding of N0 as it relates to blackjack is that it is the number of trials necessary for results to overcome the short term variance that Alan and others seem to relish. It is where the math really begins to take over and we get to the long-term.

    So when evaluating different games with different rules and conditions, we will have different N0's. Norm's software does this instantly and provides a N0. The higher that N0, the worse the game is.
    Thanks KewlJ, I'll add this book to my reading list.

  5. #5
    @kewlj

    Just to nit-pick, just because game A’s N0 is higher than B’s, doesn’t mean it’s necessarily worse. If everything else is constant (which is impossible AFAIK), then higher N0 is indeed worse. But there are other factors (don’t worry, Rob, not what you’re thinking) that come into play, particularly how fast or how much of a game you can play.

    Simply put, N0 is the number of rounds you need to play such that EV = 1 standard deviation. In other words, it means after that many rounds, if you’re down 1 SD, then you’re breaking even. The same for 4xN0 (which is 2 SD’s) and 9xN0 (3 SD’s). But I don’t like thinking of it in terms of rounds, but both hours played as well as days/weeks/months.

    One game’s N0 might be 500, and that sounds really good, until you hear that you can only get 50 bets in per year (EG: think sports betting). One game’s N0 might he 50,000 - which sounds absolutely terrible, until you realize it’s VP and that can be done in 50-60 hours.

    And it also takes time to get to N0 (think days, weeks, or months). Just because the N0 on a VP game might be 50 hours, that doesn’t mean you can get that done in one week, because it could be that it’s based on a promo that’s only available 4 hours every Tuesday morning — so now you’re looking at 3 months to get to N0, not just 50 hours (even though, they are the same thing).

    The other factor of course is going to be EV, as I’m sure we all know. And there comes a point where higher N0 is acceptable because you’re getting more EV out of it. The opposite is also true, where getting less EV is acceptable if the N0 is lower too. But now you’re getting into stuff like CE, ROR, SCORE, etc.

    In the end, it’s important to know how this stuff all works so you can look at a play and be able to gauge it as accurately as possible to see if it fits within your comfort levels and is a good enough play to be worth it — and if you’re comparing two different things because you can’t do both, then you know which one is better for you.
    #FreeTyde

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