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Thread: So much talk about winning. But how much?

  1. #1
    There are many video poker professionals who talk about winning, and how they have a record of annual wins. But missing from these claims of annual wins are dollar amounts. Just how much are the pros winning?

    And is the "winning" worth it?

    On several discussion forums, there are pros and semi-pros who report one yearly win after another, but pin them down on what games they are playing and you find out its probably 25-cent video poker where a royal flush that comes around once in 40,000+ hands pays $1,000 and even if they do put $100,000 through the machines a 1% edge would only give them a $1,000 profit. Or doesn't it?

    The only time a video poker professional ever revealed his actual numbers (or numbers he claimed were actual) was when I attended a lecture by video poker author and professional Bob Dancer at the Fiest Hotel and Casino in North Las Vegas and this might have been ten years ago.

    Dancer reported that his income from video poker was $250,000 for the year, but half of that income came from actual "game wins" and the other half was the value of comps and cash back. Cash back is real money, but comps can represent foods, show tickets, hotel rooms, and gifts such as cameras or bottles of champagne or casino jackets and computers -- yes if you play enough you will get these "gifts."

    What I found troubling is that Dancer said that to win his $250,000 in cash and comps and cashback that he was playing three-line deuces wild video poker at the $25 per coin denomination. In other words, each time he pushed the button he had $375 at risk. When these video poker pros can push that button 600 times or more per hour, that's a lot of risk. Yes, 600 plays X $375 per push = $225,000 coin-in per hour. That appears to be a lot of money to risk to pocket $125,000 in cash winnings a year.

    Well, here's my point. If Bob Dancer had to risk $225,000 per hour of "coin in" or "play" to pocket $125,000 in cash or $250,000 of total compensation playing video poker in a year, just what chance does a 25-cent video poker play have of turning any kind of profit that's worth more than what you pay for the hotel room or even the gas money and mileage to the casino?

    And then there are the "professional teams" who play for progressive video poker jackpots. How much can they possibly earn? After all if there is a team playing, and the team hits the jackpot, the jackpot has to be shared by the team. So how much can an individual get for his share? Another question is about how often a progressive grows to be big enough to attract the team to play it? And what if the team doesn't hit the progressive but the "little old lady from Pasadena" or Shirley from San Diego is at the right machine at the right time and scores the win? What happens to the income of the professional team then?

    Unfortunately there are no real stats or income figures for us to know who is telling the truth and who is expanding on the truth. We can check the stats to see who won what at the World Series of Poker or what football players and baseball players and basketball players are getting paid. But I fear the exaggeration meter is peaking in the red when I hear about video poker pros claiming winning years without telling us all how much.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 12-05-2011 at 08:34 PM.

  2. #2
    I'd say the 25-cent video poker player accessing the best games and comp/promo opportunities is looking at per hour profits of between $6 and $12 for the most part, depending on speed, accuracy, and knowledge of where/when to play.

  3. #3
    Come on Alan, you know how unforgiving video poker is. I lost as an "optimal play expert" when good pay tables & cash back were common, then I had a good run by understanding how important luck was to winning and taking maximum advantage of it.

    No one beats this game consistently no matter how smart they make everyone think they are, how fast or flawlessly they claim to play, or how they supposedly outsmart the casinos and their slot clubs. And no one ever has. It is a known fact that players have not and will never defeat the casinos at their own game of math.

    It's no surprise that those who talk of beating the game with all their AP crap have never offered to prove anything publicly and always hide behind mathematical explanations as their crutch. It's also no coincidence that those who write books and sell the perfect strategy just are not able to retire from any of it no matter how old and hideous they get, because they are so addicted to the game and if they want to continue playing they have to continue selling. And if you notice how someone like Frank operates: secret teams who supposedly have always used casinos as their own personal ATM's? Come on. You actually believe casinos would ever allow TEAMS to descend upon them if they were consistently profitting off their progressives?

    It's time to come to grips with what's been going on within the commercialized video poker world---something I've been preaching to the public since 2000. These people are nothing but addicts who continuously need to keep the fire of justification-for-playing lit. There is only one true way of winning at this game, and that is to properly prepare for it in your mind and your pocketbook, actually do it in the exact way I did it, then back up the claims of results to the naysayers, critics, disbelievers, and jealous name-callers with published challenges in Las Vegas that I could both prove what I've already won and prove I could win going forward with actual witnessed play. And guess why all the aforementioned phonies have never wanted any part of that!

    So don't go believing all these desk jockies who hide behind theory instead of actually doing something. Why do you think an angry person such as arcimedes wastes so much time on all forums proclaiming how great AP's do and how bad I supposedly do? A guy like that not only can't shake the curse of playing--even in the midst of all the,sufferring going on around him. He spends every other waking moment on the forums trying to get a virtual vp fix by telling everyone they don't understand what they're talking about if they don't think like him.

    Know this: there is no such thing as AP-winning without the same extraordinary luck anyone who wins has. And NO AP wins consistently. The writing has been and always will be on the wall right there in front of you all.

  4. #4
    Well, Frank has now posted on LVA that his reported average after tax income of $40,000 was now some theoretical figure used to decide when AP video poker would reach a threshold of a worthy pursuit. Presumably below $40K and no one should bother, but above $40k and it's still a worthwhile pursuit. But still there are no real numbers for the rest of us to judge.

    I am sure that some of those real numbers are guarded by the secret handshake of the AP community. This leaves me only to consider Dancer's public announcement of about a decade ago that he did earn $250,000 playing VP at the cost of $375 per push of the button and that $250,000 was a combination of winnings and comps and cash back and promotions.

    Frankly, I like redietz's comment: "I'd say the 25-cent video poker player accessing the best games and comp/promo opportunities is looking at per hour profits of between $6 and $12 for the most part, depending on speed, accuracy, and knowledge of where/when to play." And we can multiply that by 4 for the dollar player who might be earning between $24 and $48 an hour.

    Let's take the high end of that: $48 x 40 hours = $1,920 per week. Now that's about $100,000 per year, and isn't bad for a gross income. Still missing? Pension, health insurance, sick pay, and the necessary bankroll to get over the valleys.

    I think Dancer was telling the truth, but as I pointed out above he was risking a lot of money to earn $125,000 in winnings plus $125,000 in comps and cash back and promos. As I noted above: 600 plays X $375 per push = $225,000 coin-in per hour. That appears to be a lot of money to risk to pocket $125,000 in cash winnings a year.

    I'll keep my day job, thank you.

  5. #5
    It's all pretend theory Alan, even though the math is always balls-on. Why do you think these people keep hustling. Why do you think they keep on sitting at the machines at ages waaaay past when the normal person retires? Why do you think Frank gives such nebulous info and says he and his "teams" live by the "secret handshake"?

    I wouldn't't believe anything Dancer's ever said about himself because it's so obviously false advertising to sell himself. In addition to my having caught him in numerous made-up stories and lies in his columns thru the years in order to sell himself--which he is really all about--as I told you earlier, NO professional vp player would ever want to even think about working a real job at the same time, and he has ever since he showed up in LV thinking the casinos were his own personal ATM's. As a retired pro, I can tell you that it makes absolutely no sense to do anything but bask in the glory of making a living from playing. It is, in fact, the ONLY reason one becomes a professional.

  6. #6
    Today I put the question bluntly to Arcimedes. Since he is so certain about the ability to win at video poker on a "positive game" I asked him why he hasn't mortgaged everything to move up from playing 25-cent games to $100 games? What could possibly be holding him back? I do not expect an answer.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Today I put the question bluntly to Arcimedes. Since he is so certain about the ability to win at video poker on a "positive game" I asked him why he hasn't mortgaged everything to move up from playing 25-cent games to $100 games? What could possibly be holding him back? I do not expect an answer.
    He'll say bankroll is the issue, citing some geek-driven formula that claims one requires anywhere from $11000 to $20000 just to succeed in quarters. These people make a big deal about the so called Risk of Ruin in vp, yet anyone can be ruined at any level playing with any reasonable amount of bankroll by not having luck.

  8. #8
    If he is so convinced his strategy will win, he should raise the bankroll... pawn shops, mortgage the house, garage sale, max out the credit cards.... LOL

  9. #9
    I wouldn't be surprised if he's already DONE all that....and more!

  10. #10
    Finally, someone on the "other forum" gets it, but just doesn't realize that he "gets it." It's our friendly nemesis KayPea (wow, what a handle?). I was writing about all the "BS" about advantaged play and how it is supposed to make people "winners." I think the principles of advantaged play can help you, but I don't think anything makes you a winner except if the RNG of a VP machine cooperates with your choices. You can break up a flush with four to the royal ten thousand times and there is no guarantee you will ever draw the royal card. That's reality. The strategy says to go for the royal, and the reality is you might never get it. So look at what KayPea wrote:

    Originally posted by: MoneyLA
    The BS meter has peaked into the red.
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Now it goes off? You've been dealing with Singer so long that I didn't think you had a BS meter. How do you think the casinos make money? Do you think it's just luck? Or do you think they have a bevy of mathematicians as consultants analyzing the games to make sure they have a winning edge? Could it be that math is like gravity and only applies to some of us while others like you go floating off into space?

    Rob these guys don't realize what you've been saying all along. You never said your system will beat the math of the game. In fact, we know the math of the game is on the casino's side. Even with games that have a positive paytable, the casinos have factored in "errors" and "the loss leader effect" that only a few will play perfectly and that the positive paytables will still be profitable for the casinos.

    In fact, Rob, I think you had a report on how a Strip casino once had positive paytable games and still managed big profits from them, but the machines were removed because "local APers" dominated the games and guests couldn't get on them? Do I have that right? Was it at the Wynn?

    So to my friend KayPea and LurkerPoster who will read this but doesn't have the smarts to repost this on the other forum, if you followed the "math" you would understand that playing by the math cannot make you a winner. Playing by the math can help you win, but you will need a strategy adjustment (win goals) and a personal attitude adjustment so you aren't controlled by the casinos who know that the longer you play their way the more you will lose.

    And one more thing that is important. If Frank thinks that holding out hope for beating the casinos will not induce addictive behavior, he is terribly wrong.

  11. #11
    Oh these guys, who are for the most part big laughable phonies, always proclaim on the forums that the casinos use the math to make their big profits--but then they caveat that it does not apply to them because they're smarter than the casino employees. Just look at the recent big deal progressives Frank was instrumental in getting into the M. They knew who he was, they knew he had a book out on claiming how he and anonymous teams supposedly crushed these exact type games--yet Frank played them like there was no tomorrow AND THEY LET HIM AND HIS TEAM POUND AWAY ON THEM FOR THE DURATION! Now if Frank & those "teams" ever had any success at all, do you actually believe the M would allow these math-driven needy types to take their money home at will?

    Come on people, get real and put all that nonsense theory aside. Eventually, ALL the so-called math pros are forced to either leave Nevada or take on a real job....or both. Look at what happened to Yuri, a well known AP math professor and self-proclaimed "#1 expert optimal ply guru in LV". He went broke, was fired for gambling at the machines when he was suppose to be teaching his classes, and is now shoveing coal in Northern Siberia in order to feed his vastly disappointed and disillusioned family. Or the fabulous Skip Hughes, who scrambled off to Santa Monica for a job search & family help after coming to grips with the reality that video poker theory has nothing to do with reality.

    Or ask arcimedes why he and his AP myth couldn't make it in LV and he was forced to scramble on back to Minn. But nothing tops Mr. Dan "I'll re-write Optimal Play VP over & over again so I can make a new living out here in MM after seeing it fail at the machines in LV" Paymar. And, of course, now there's Frank. Like all failed AP's, he talks a big nebulous game of PAST glory, and now claims it can't be done any longer (while, of course, arci lies about how THAT's a lie!) so he's planning on changing careers. That's almost as telling as when & why arcimedes hightailed it on out of LV with his and his wife's tails tucked firmly between their legs!

    On and on. Stories about AP's abound--which is why Frank clouds all discussions about the subject in secret handshakes, odd references to weird psychological phenomena, thousand dollar words that gamblers just don't use, how nothing is ever real unless it was theorized with a mathematical equation first, and a "don't ask / don't tell" mentality.

    Yes Alan that was at the Wynn.

  12. #12
    One of the reasons why the casinos don't object to "teams" winning the progressives and playing the progressives is that the "progressive jackpots" come out of the pockets of the players. The casino's probably make a nice profit from the progressives, and here's why:

    1. casino games usually have reduced paytables, insuring a win for the casinos, no matter who plays -- teams or regular players.
    2. the progressives are fed, built, by the player's money. In fact, Nevada regulations recognize this and require that progressive jackpots must be distributed back to the players either on that particular progressive or the progressive jackpot can be distributed among other progressives.

    This is why the current Lions progressive slot at MGM is above 2-million on a single slot machine. MGM did away with all of the other machines and this single, last machine will be removed once the progressive is hit.

    I understand, however, that casinos would be "happier" if their regular customers had a shot at the progressives rather than teams who come in just to hit the big jackpots. Several times at Rincon the managers told me they would rather have the progressives hit by "regulars" than by the teams... and the last few times (in fact going back over the last two years) regular players won the progressives and not the teams.

    I understand that the casinos do not favor the local advantage players "hogging" their machines and thanks Rob for telling me that story about the Wynn. I thought it was interesting how Wynn still made a profit on the machines but still wanted its guests to have the chance to play them.

  13. #13
    I think Frank summed in up pretty well on the LVA forum when he said the best available plays today would not even have made his scouting list in the mid-90's. That is my experience, also. In addition, back then, video poker was comped identically to slots. Now any video poker is comped a fraction of slots, and those dubbed "full pay" are providing only a fraction of the non-full-pay comps or nothing at all.

    The question I have for current advantage players is, honestly, if you played in the 90's, did you back then ever envision playing with the tiny edge you now have?

  14. #14
    In my column I once chronicled how Dancer always said that if the actual games themselves ever went to under a theoretical 100%, he'd never play another machine again or until those games were to return. Then certain games he played did, so he started adding cash back into the mix. Then those games WITH cash back went under 100%, so he started adding in the ever-famous comps, and of course now, he and his ilk not only throw in every little piece of casino heaven they can think of--they apply whatever value they want or need to in order to create a "positive play" out of thin air.

    This is what TRUE ADDICTION does to people. I constantly publicly humiliated these "gurus" in my GT columns for doing this, but while anyone in control of their faculties would have gently just walked away from the game as promised, these folks were too far gone and under the powerful spell of the video poker machines.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 12-08-2011 at 06:53 PM.

  15. #15
    That is very interesting Rob. Any way to see those original columns?

    I think you can also add into the mix of "justifications" the marketing component. If a video poker author gave up playing video poker how could anyone justify buying the books or software or strategy cards?

    I mean, would you pray with a priest or rabbi who didn't believe in God?

    I also think you are spot on with the justification for play as being part of the addiction of video poker. I think there are many people with an "addiction" to the game but fail to realize it is an addiction because they are not stealing to feed their habit, they are not depriving their families of food and clothing, and they are not missing work to go to a casino. Their "addiction" is actually benign, but they will use every opportunity to justify playing a game that is designed to favor the house.

  16. #16
    Your last para., if posted on LVA, would cause a ton of angst but only one or two criticisms--and they'd come like clockwork from arcimedes, simply because he cannot stand to see anyone bring his weaknesses forward in front of an audience he believes he impresses no end. But most of the addicts over there--like Rizzo as a gentle example--will privately and silently suffer under the extreme weight of those overly truthful words.

    I wrote nearly 400 articles for GT and they were all on my site. I do have everything from my site saved on a flash drive and someday I'll have time to sift thru all those classics. Won't it be fun somewhere in the future to see how accurately I explained all the baloney that goes on in the era that used the growth of the video poker machine as a crutch for the maximum commercialization of the game. When they do the movie, I'd like....ready?....James ---- take a guess....to play me.

  17. #17
    Walker?

    Sorry, I remember JJ used to hang at the Stardust.

    Carville?

    No -- he's left; his wife's right.

    I don't know any current James actors -- that's bad when all I can think of is Arness.

  18. #18
    Sorry... James Franco NOT. (LOL)

  19. #19
    James Woods.

    I see the hacks are at it again as their video poker knowledge just keeps flowing. I read a study that said 90% of the patrons in any given casino at any time, have been ahead in their gaming at some point during that day and inside that casino. So I did a study on myself during a little over 100 of my sessions. I was ahead in at least 85% of them because that's just about the rate my strategy wins at. I didn't measure it on 100 hands, but I was ahead at one time or another in around 90% of my sessions overall.

    I didn't understand the comment about how a flush on a $100 machine would meet my $2500 session win goal. It only means I won a $2500 hand, and I would only hold the flush over four-to-the-royal there IF holding that flush would allow me to attain either a mini-win goal of being able to go back to the $25 BP machine along with picketing at least a 40 credit minimum soft profit, or the flush is enough to attain my overall session win goal.

  20. #20
    Rob, here is my original question and your answer about being dealt a flush with 4 to the royal on a $100 game and meeting your win goal:

    http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showth...rategy-system.

    Also I interviewed another gaming author, Victor Royer, about "winning" in casinos. And he told me pretty much the same thing... that at one point 86% of players at some point are winners in the casino. Here is that interview I did with him, and the comments about winning are right at the start of the interview:



    Now, as we all know, even though so many players are ahead at some point, it doesn't mean that so many players leave with a profit. As Victor Royer confirmed for me, and as I know, and as you know Rob, most players give it all back whether they're playing slots or table games or even video poker. Few have the discipline to take a profit and leave.

    There is more about my interview with Victor Royer (known as Vegas Vic) on this page of my site: http://alanbestbuys.com/id73.html You will have to scroll down this page a bit, and the interview is below the two videos/interivews I did with Anthony Curtis about a year ago. (We have a Vegas Vic who is a member of this forum but I don't know if they are one and the same.)

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