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Thread: The rollercoaster that is professional card counting.

  1. #241
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    RS. What is with the video for the 3rd time? Okay, I get it. You don't like me. Now let's all have a big cry over that. Boo fucking whoo. But you were a dealer. I can't believe you never saw people looking for trouble who didn't find it eventually. This isn't Bingo in the basement of a church. My saying is "one doesn't have to look for trouble, it comes soon enough." Now maybe it's not that way where you reside. But if you are not ready in this jungle the elements will eat you alive.
    Give it a rest already. What are you rambling on about?
    What an idiot! That's an oxymoron statement. Which I guess is appropriate for a true moron.
    If you can't understand what I'm saying after spending that many hours in a casino, I don't know what to tell you.

  2. #242
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Too many times talking to that burning bush maybe?
    I think KJ and his gang have all been burning a little bush. No?

  3. #243
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    To suggest that any normal person could bend over and take it that many times is beyond a stretch of the wildest imagination.
    I guess you really don't know KJ that well after all. Just read the different forums he's been on. Yet, he's still trying to find a place with a ice bucket for him to cool off his ass in. Anyone with any brains ain't buying his bullshit, especially here except of course for the minions. I'm thinking he should move on from here.

  4. #244
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Now imagine losing 58 more large bets hands of $500 than you lose in just 5 days. For my game, I'm surprised if I make 100 large bets in a week. But KJ speaks to a stair step approach so he is even losing more hands than that....and he avoids the negative decks which pull down the minus win/loss percentage considerably. To suggest that any normal person could bend over and take it that many times is beyond a stretch of the wildest imagination. Again, those are supposed to be winnable hands. No?
    Repeating this stupid comment over and over does nothing for your credibility. This statement just makes it crystal clear, you haven't a clue about blackjack and the variance that is part of the game. Anyone, including your hero T3 and now you, claiming they can master or alter the variance that is part of blackjack card counting is completely full of shit. The only real question is are you lying to us or lying to yourself.

    I seek out situations where I will have the max number of max bet situations. I do this a number of different ways, of which I have mentioned. Tracking multiple tables (more max bet opportunities), exiting negative counts aggressively, so as to get to a better opportunity that is more likely to yield a max bet opportunity and playing heads up or with 1 other player most of the time, so that when that high count (max bet opportunity) comes, it will remain, for many, many rounds until the shuffle. It is not unusual in a shoe game to get a max bet opportunity and have it last 30-40 rounds. Everything is about getting to as many max bet opportunities as possible.

    And there will be times that despite that advantageous situation, you will lose many max bet opportunities in a short period of time, just as there will be times you win most of your max bet opportunities. That is the variance associated with blackjack card counting and anyone that doesn't understand this, one of the most simple and basic parts of blackjack card counting, should not even be playing.

    Variance is part of blackjack card counting. That is why every book for the last 50 years, and every computer software, tells and shows you why a player needs a large bankroll. It is a mathematical fact that even playing with an advantage, a player will experience these swings. And anyone who tells you differently as you are trying to do is simply full of shit.

  5. #245
    KewlJ,

    Did you pm to Coach the link he requested so he could follow up and confirm the claims you made are facts about Rob?

    Did you request to Dan to post Coach's PM's (which Coach authorized)so we could confirm your claims he's colluding with Rob? You promised to leave if there is no proof.

    Of course not, you're a FUCKING FRAUD.

  6. #246
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I suppose, as the "sports guy," it's my fiduciary duty to make a comment here, so I will.

    I have a real difficult time when a nonchalant comment is made like "sports betting providing more income than blackjack" or something in that neighborhood. There seems to be some general public myth that doing some conscientious data mining and trend analysis can yield a modest but consistent profit across many sports consistently for years.

    That is a myth. It's more likely true that absolutely religious numbers monitoring and arbitrage can yield profits, but even that is rare, and it requires 24/7 monitoring of multiple shops and offshores, using every tool at one's disposal..
    Research, finding value, and discipline. Blackjack, Stock Market, Housing market, Sports bets. It all comes down to hard work. I've been to those Monday morning QB meetings in the sports book. Hell, don't tell me what I could've done yesterday. Tell me, what is the best opportunity next Sunday. The Lakers getting 3 at Indy. Hell, I thought the line was reversed. I got the overnight line at like 3pm the previous day. Highly unusual. They norm is around 6pm. Boston only giving 3 to Detroit last night. Yes, Irving was out. But we could've put Bosox at point guard and they still would've covered. The line dropped to my standard about 30 minutes before go time. So I had to scramble a bit.

    Tampa at Pittsburgh for -110 in hockey. Are you kidding me? That was an incredible value. But they lost. Two nights later -150 at New York Islanders. Not such a good price. I passed and they won. My point is, always seek value and price and the dollars take care of themselves.

    Most guys get a daily or weekly sheet and handicap from that sheet. My work is all front loaded. So it's a matter of waiting for the game to come to me. I should bet more than I do. However, betting less than I can is the real detriment because it's easier to chase.

    NHL Toronto at Arizona. Price will be too high. Tampa at Columbus on February 18 may offer some value. NBA San Antonio at Toronto on February 22. Probably more points than I'd want to give. But I did get them at home vs Utah on 1/1/19 for -2.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-14-2019 at 11:01 AM.

  7. #247
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    KewlJ,

    Did you pm to Coach the link he requested so he could follow up and confirm the claims you made are facts about Rob?

    Did you request to Dan to post Coach's PM's so we could confirm your claims he's colluding with Rob? You promised to leave if there is no proof.

    Of course not, you're a FUCKING FRAUD.
    I did request Dan post PMs between coach belly and Singer. He has not done so. If he does so and it proves there is no colluding between the two, I will leave. But that hasn't happened yet.

    I am not providing coach belly anything. Why can't he do his own research as a number of us here have. He manages to spend hours looking through old threads for some "gottch ya" moments when it suits him, why can't he spend 3 minutes and $3 to look this one up? There are legal issues involved and you and everyone knows it. I am free to say what I found (public information), but posting any kind of screenshot or record of the information, gets into legal areas. I know that's what you are looking for.

  8. #248
    He didn't ask you to post anything. Just give him the same link you used so he could pay and find the same information you did. I'm sure there are hundreds of different search places on the internet with different claims. He wants to read what you read.

    Stop with the bullshit we're trying to get you in some type of legal trouble. That's just another of your fraud claims. No different than handing off a good gay site to one of your gay friends.

  9. #249
    I am done engaging with the haters in this thread. This thread in accordance with the topic of this site, "casino talk", was a discussion to show the kind of variance associated with real blackjack card counting, in an effort that others may benefit from such knowledge. Unforetuantely it was hijacked by the typical hate rhetoric from the usual "haters".

    I am requesting that Dan Druff remove those members from this thread, in accordance with his own stated rules. And really, I am publicly suggesting to Dan that it is way past time to clean up this forum a little bit. Free speech is one thing, but just repeated hateful bigoted attacks based on race, religion, gender, sexual preference that have nothing to do with the gambling/casino topic at hand.....why is that allowed Dan? These people aren't here for casino talk, they are hateful bigots, bitter with there own lives and circumstances.

  10. #250
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am done engaging with the haters in this thread. This thread in accordance with the topic of this site, "casino talk", was a discussion to show the kind of variance associated with real blackjack card counting, in an effort that others may benefit from such knowledge. Unforetuantely it was hijacked by the typical hate rhetoric from the usual "haters".

    I am requesting that Dan Druff remove those members from this thread, in accordance with his own stated rules. And really, I am publicly suggesting to Dan that it is way past time to clean up this forum a little bit. Free speech is one thing, but just repeated hateful bigoted attacks based on race, religion, gender, sexual preference that have nothing to do with the gambling/casino topic at hand.....why is that allowed Dan? These people aren't here for casino talk, they are hateful bigots, bitter with there own lives and circumstances.
    Of course this was your expected next move. The heat is to hot for your faggot ass. Don't reply when your faggot ass is against the wall and instead go crying to Dan that your faggot ass is on fire. HELP ME DAN !!! I NEED A BUCKET OF ICE WATER !!!!!

  11. #251
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Repeating this stupid comment over and over does nothing for your credibility. This statement just makes it crystal clear, you haven't a clue about blackjack and the variance that is part of the game. Anyone, including your hero T3 and now you, claiming they can master or alter the variance that is part of blackjack card counting is completely full of shit. The only real question is are you lying to us or lying to yourself..
    You little gay fucker. You threatened to kill Singer? I would go upside you head so fast and so hard you wouldn't stand a chance. T3 is NOT my hero. But he is a helluva lot smarter than you. You're WEAK and STUPID. Bad combination. If that is your question? Then come play me and stop making excuses as to why you can't/won't.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I seek out situations where I will have the max number of max bet situations. I do this a number of different ways, of which I have mentioned. Tracking multiple tables (more max bet opportunities), exiting negative counts aggressively, so as to get to a better opportunity that is more likely to yield a max bet opportunity and playing heads up or with 1 other player most of the time, so that when that high count (max bet opportunity) comes, it will remain, for many, many rounds until the shuffle. It is not unusual in a shoe game to get a max bet opportunity and have it last 30-40 rounds. Everything is about getting to as many max bet opportunities as possible..
    I don't believe you can track two tables at the same time and keep an accurate count. But even if you could? You still lost $29K...and avoided negative decks. Sounds to me like the greatest handicapper on earth who only had $80 left in his pocket to bet the game of the bowl season. Shrewd. You can't even pass a drivers test for crissake. And you think you can make a million dollars playing blackjack?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    And there will be times that despite that advantageous situation, you will lose many max bet opportunities in a short period of time, just as there will be times you win most of your max bet opportunities. That is the variance associated with blackjack card counting and anyone that doesn't understand this, one of the most simple and basic parts of blackjack card counting, should not even be playing..
    In essence, you're riding a big ole nasty wave that left you even after 5 months. STUPID! And how many books did you have to read in order to master such a shrewd strategy?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Variance is part of blackjack card counting. That is why every book for the last 50 years, and every computer software, tells and shows you why a player needs a large bankroll. It is a mathematical fact that even playing with an advantage, a player will experience these swings. And anyone who tells you differently as you are trying to do is simply full of shit.
    Variance is part of blackjack, stock market, housing market, sports bets, going into business, sales, and just about everything. Question is what are you going to do about it? Throwing money at it and then crying on a forum doesn't seem to be working so well for you. Thus, your miraculous comeback stories are unbelievable and irrelevant. Getting mad and threatening to kill people because they don't believe only weakens your credibility and puts you danger according to your past diatribes.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-14-2019 at 11:36 AM.

  12. #252
    Moses barking is awfully loud for that puppy dog bite. Jive turkey.

  13. #253
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    To suggest that any normal person could bend over and take it that many times is beyond a stretch of the wildest imagination.
    I guess you really don't know KJ that well after all. Just read the different forums he's been on. Yet, he's still trying to find a place with a ice bucket for him to cool off his ass in. Anyone with any brains ain't buying his bullshit, especially here except of course for the minions. I'm thinking he should move on from here.
    Nice to hear from you Blackhole. FWIW, I never said I knew him. Pretty sure I never said I liked him. But did say I respected him. However, that is no longer the case. I cannot see a point. Perhaps you can explain it to me.

    He must get on a forum to speak of his million dollar milestone. Why? I think I finally saved my first million at age 45. As you may know, raising kids is downright costly.

    But I didn't see a need to announce it. I mean, who was I going to tell? Maybe my Dad if would've been still alive.

    The 2nd dumbest story I ever heard in my life was a security guard walked up to me and told me he met an attractive lady. She invited him to her room and told him to shower because Uno. He did, came out and his money, wallet, credit cards, ID, and even HIS PANTS were gone. The dumb ass couldn't seem to figure what went wrong in their "relationship." Good news is he found his pants a couple of blocks away in a dumpster.

    The dumbest story I ever heard? That he told me, almost a complete stranger, and many others about his encounter.

    Now, the 2nd dumbest blackjack story I ever heard was about a guy losing $29K in a week playing blackjack.

    The dumbest blackjack story? The guy speaks to his nasty woes on a forum and calls it variance. Then recovers it all in 5 months. All the while spending most of his time getting highly pissed at anyone who questions the validity of his claim. When did he have time to play all these hands?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am done engaging with the haters in this thread. This thread in accordance with the topic of this site, "casino talk", was a discussion to show the kind of variance associated with real blackjack card counting, in an effort that others may benefit from such knowledge. Unforetuantely it was hijacked by the typical hate rhetoric from the usual "haters".

    I am requesting that Dan Druff remove those members from this thread, in accordance with his own stated rules. And really, I am publicly suggesting to Dan that it is way past time to clean up this forum a little bit. Free speech is one thing, but just repeated hateful bigoted attacks based on race, religion, gender, sexual preference that have nothing to do with the gambling/casino topic at hand.....why is that allowed Dan? These people aren't here for casino talk, they are hateful bigots, bitter with there own lives and circumstances.
    Try telling your tales of woe in a sports book. Then you will understand hateful bigots calling you names. No one would know of your sexual preference if you didn't constantly throw it in every ones face.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-14-2019 at 11:42 AM.

  14. #254
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    KJ didn't have any peers here until you guys from BJTF showed up. He was the only BJ pro here until then.
    Mickey, there are a couple members here that I consider my peers, even though some don't play much blackjack anymore.

    But I recently learned that there are more people that I consider my peers that read this forum. Recently the BJHoF was in town for their annual meet-up and I had lunch with a couple players at their request (and of course on their dime ). Both players I have great respect for, one I have always been friendly with online and the other, well...we have had a less friendly relationship online, with him often being critical of me, and my level of AP. But anyway it was a very pleasant afternoon.

    The purpose was that these gentlemen wanted to encourage me to begin to "rehabilitate" (their word), my image. Apparently I had received some consideration into "the club" but had also met with some resistance because of my extra curricular Forum type activities. Suggestions were that I attempt to patch things up with Michael Shack, and that I stop participating here (specifically), thus my awareness that this forum has a further reach than I though.

    As politely as I could I declined, which didn't endear me to them (posting this won't either ). You see that is a club, I have always said, I was not interested in. While I respect many members, and these two at the top of that list, I just don't see the point in gathering once a year to pat each other on the back. Maybe later in life that would appeal to me.

    I also believe I have reached out to try to patch things with Mr. Shacky. He wants no part of that. I have done that for my own reasons, being that we are two AP's living in Vegas, I though we might develop a mutual beneficiary relationship, but as I said, he has no interest.

    I also would never accept terms from anyone as to what I can and can't do (or where I can or can't post) as a condition of anything. I decide what I do and don't do.

    But anyway, the point is this retarded little forum, filled with hate, spite and very little value to anyone, oddly has a farther reaching effect that I think most of us realize. I have no idea why?

  15. #255
    There a lot of people who lurk here but don't want to show themselves.

    Don't let the relatively few active members fool you.

    There's even some casino executives who lurk this site, so always be careful what you say in public (though revelation of general, fairly well known plays aren't likely to hurt anything).
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #256
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    There a lot of people who lurk here but don't want to show themselves.

    Don't let the relatively few active members fool you.

    There's even some casino executives who lurk this site, so always be careful what you say in public (though revelation of general, fairly well known plays aren't likely to hurt anything).
    When I went back to work, playing blackjack in December 2017, after my heart surgery, I had I believe 3 different casino personnel make some sort health "well wish" comment to me. Not exactly executive, 1 dealer and 2 pit people. This forum wasn't the only place I shared going through that experience, but I do know Casino personnel read these various forums.

    For one, some casino personnel, dealers and pit are players on their own time, some playing or attempting to play with an advantage, so they read different forums looking for tips just like other people.

    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    so always be careful what you say in public
    I have a history on several forums of sharing some experience and then a few hours or the next day re-reading and saying to myself "Geez, what was I thinking" and editing. (That's why I am not thrilled with the short edit window here).

    Luckily I have several players that I network with, that while they are stingy about sharing useful information , they often are looking after me and contact me via email/text shortly after I make a stupid post with TMI and say "hey you might want to re-think that".
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-14-2019 at 12:26 PM.

  17. #257
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    KJ didn't have any peers here until you guys from BJTF showed up. He was the only BJ pro here until then.
    But anyway, the point is this retarded little forum, filled with hate, spite and very little value to anyone, oddly has a farther reaching effect that I think most of us realize. I have no idea why?
    It’s pretty easy for me to understand why. It’s got a cast of characters, to say the least. When people get kicked off other forums, they come here.

    It’s got some of the best cat fights on the internet. And Cat fights sell...just look at all the reality garbage on TV. I don’t watch most of it, but you can tell people like watching a car wreck. Yeah, I think some of it goes too far, but some of it is funny as shit!

    And it’s got some really good APing and casino tips by people who do this stuff for a living. I went from lurking part time to lurking full time, to being a poster, and I haven’t regretted it.

    The good news is I’m having to spend less time lurking over there on Mose’s island, zenzone, since it appears he’s pretty much left that island, and making most his posts over here.

    So yes, I get why this site “has a farther reaching effect than most of us realize.”

  18. #258
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    The good news is I’m having to spend less time lurking over there on Mose’s island, zenzone, since it appears he’s pretty much left that island, and making most his posts over here.
    LOL. Have you read BJTF lately? Boring as hell. They're not giving me any material. Plus I've still got $27,200 to lose this week in order to turn Pro. I'd better get started.

  19. #259
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I did request Dan post PMs between coach belly and Singer. He has not done so. If he does so and it proves there is no colluding between the two, I will leave.
    And he won't be doing so because there are no PMs between me and Singer, so Dan can't post anything.

    I have never communicated with Rob Singer in any way other than right here on this forum.

    And if you bother to take a look, we've barely had any interaction here.

  20. #260
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Excellent post redietz. I’ve just started getting into sports betting since it’s become legal in my area. I agree with everything you’ve said. I’ve bought some sports betting books and read many articles on the internet on sports betting. And I joined The Action Network, which didn’t cost much and has been interesting. With all this information, I’ve lost money, although not much, in my first six months of trying this.

    However, I did well with the Super Bowl but only because I took high probability bets, with low returns. I won all of them, but didn’t make much but it was a good exercise. The four prop bets I bet on were: 1) Tom Brady not scoring on a rushing Td, 2) no defensive player getting two interceptions, 3) no safety, 4) no team scoring 4 consecutive times in a row. All of them paid off, which is what I expected. I put $100 on each one and won something like $50, which I thought was a pretty good return for high probability events occurring.

    I’m sure Vegas sets the odds on these bet based on the probability of them occurring so in the long run when I lose one, I know I’ll lose a lot.

    Question: This seems like a good strategy for sports betting...bet on high probability events, with low returns. For example, money line bets on college home football teams that are favored by three tds. I’m sure this has been tried before and it probably fails long term.

    What’s your thought on this strategy?

    First of all, moneyline wagers (in general) have a higher house take than spread wagers per dollar wagered, so that's a negative. However, if you monitor lines around the country and offshore 24/7, then you should be able to catch the best of a tardy line when the other numbers start to move. Why some lines are tardy is an entire long discussion with historical angles, so we'll leave that for another day (or month). In best case scenarios, one can occasionally manage arbitrage or semi-arbitrage with a bias to the preferred side. In any event, the higher hold on moneyline wagers makes them tough.

    Interestingly to your very point, a couple of years ago some folks pinned down what they thought was a weakness in college football moneylines. I believe they were taking moneyline shots at 14-19 point faves or some such. They started off well, but then got absolutely blasted one particular week. That was the highest profile attempt to implement what you're suggesting. It didn't end well, and it was based on historical data that had some heft to it, and it was also based on the interesting psychological hypothesis that people just don't bet those kinds of teams on moneylines, so there should be value there. I don't have a particular argument with that hypothesis (it makes sense), but as one of my friends always asks when confronted with moneylines for Mayweather fights, "If I have the 50, why risk it to make the 1?" A fair question.

    One thing I do want to warn about is the idea that someone can "find value" as if it's Waldo. Value-finding isn't something that can be taught. It's not really an acquirable skill, other than those instances where you discover an NBA team is sitting three starters and somebody's line hasn't adjusted. Yeah, in that (very rare) instance, one has "found value." But for 99.9% of all events, "value" is not standing up and waving its hand at you.

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