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Thread: The rollercoaster that is professional card counting.

  1. #261
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    One thing I do want to warn about is the idea that someone can "find value" as if it's Waldo. Value-finding isn't something that can be taught. It's not really an acquirable skill, other than those instances where you discover an NBA team is sitting three starters and somebody's line hasn't adjusted. Yeah, in that (very rare) instance, one has "found value." But for 99.9% of all events, "value" is not standing up and waving its hand at you.
    Excellent point Redietz. My value standard has only been met 7 times in the NBA. 4 in NHL. 6 in NFL. I don't bet college sports, except for one unusual opportunity in 2017.

    Usually around 35 MLB games. I've been told I should go the other way on the games that almost make my standard. That would triple my quantity of bets and probably increase profits. I'd like to find 100 games a year. But it's more like 70. Maybe I will add the WNBA and CFL.

  2. #262
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Excellent post redietz. I’ve just started getting into sports betting since it’s become legal in my area. I agree with everything you’ve said. I’ve bought some sports betting books and read many articles on the internet on sports betting. And I joined The Action Network, which didn’t cost much and has been interesting. With all this information, I’ve lost money, although not much, in my first six months of trying this.

    However, I did well with the Super Bowl but only because I took high probability bets, with low returns. I won all of them, but didn’t make much but it was a good exercise. The four prop bets I bet on were: 1) Tom Brady not scoring on a rushing Td, 2) no defensive player getting two interceptions, 3) no safety, 4) no team scoring 4 consecutive times in a row. All of them paid off, which is what I expected. I put $100 on each one and won something like $50, which I thought was a pretty good return for high probability events occurring.

    I’m sure Vegas sets the odds on these bet based on the probability of them occurring so in the long run when I lose one, I know I’ll lose a lot.

    Question: This seems like a good strategy for sports betting...bet on high probability events, with low returns. For example, money line bets on college home football teams that are favored by three tds. I’m sure this has been tried before and it probably fails long term.

    What’s your thought on this strategy?

    First of all, moneyline wagers (in general) have a higher house take than spread wagers per dollar wagered, so that's a negative. However, if you monitor lines around the country and offshore 24/7, then you should be able to catch the best of a tardy line when the other numbers start to move. Why some lines are tardy is an entire long discussion with historical angles, so we'll leave that for another day (or month). In best case scenarios, one can occasionally manage arbitrage or semi-arbitrage with a bias to the preferred side. In any event, the higher hold on moneyline wagers makes them tough.

    Interestingly to your very point, a couple of years ago some folks pinned down what they thought was a weakness in college football moneylines. I believe they were taking moneyline shots at 14-19 point faves or some such. They started off well, but then got absolutely blasted one particular week. That was the highest profile attempt to implement what you're suggesting. It didn't end well, and it was based on historical data that had some heft to it, and it was also based on the interesting psychological hypothesis that people just don't bet those kinds of teams on moneylines, so there should be value there. I don't have a particular argument with that hypothesis (it makes sense), but as one of my friends always asks when confronted with moneylines for Mayweather fights, "If I have the 50, why risk it to make the 1?" A fair question.

    One thing I do want to warn about is the idea that someone can "find value" as if it's Waldo. Value-finding isn't something that can be taught. It's not really an acquirable skill, other than those instances where you discover an NBA team is sitting three starters and somebody's line hasn't adjusted. Yeah, in that (very rare) instance, one has "found value." But for 99.9% of all events, "value" is not standing up and waving its hand at you.
    Thanks for the feedback. Makes sense. I’ve read where you need to look for games where you know Vegas is trying to “shade the line” to maximize their profits. An example is games where one of the teams got blown out the previous week. Since the general public thinks short term, Vegas supposedly takes advantage of this and shades the line beyond where it should be based on their power rankings, etc. I tried betting using this strategy some last year and it didn’t work out so well.

    The problem is the line gets adjusted pretty fast for all the known variables that impact it, like going with the under for football games when wind speed is 15 miles or higher. This is a popular strategy that I know is probably overused.

    I watched the line on a couple of these games last year and was surprised at how fast it moved when the weather became known. A good example is Wyoming, San Jose State last year. The weather was awful and the over/under dropped like a lead balloon. Even with the lower line, the game still went under. Since I didn’t think those warm weathered Californias would want to deal with that cold windy weather up in Wyoming I did all right on that game, with Wyoming comfortably beating the spread and the game going under.

    I’ve actually done pretty well betting on MMA fights going with the favorite. Again, I’m betting more and winning less, but it seems to be working. I know this is short term and probably won’t hold up. I’m sure Vegas knows what they’re doing when they set the lines.

    It’s been a fun experience, and it’s given me a new appreciation for how hard it is to win at this. I can see why people do it...most win just enough to keep trying. I keep pretty good records so I know I haven’t stumbled on any long term winning formula. I’ve lost for the first six months trying it, but I’m not betting big, so I haven’t lost much. I’m just in a trial stage at this point.

    Like you said, it’s a lot more complicated than something like card counting. There’s not some majic formula that can make you a winner.

  3. #263
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    The purpose was that these gentlemen wanted to encourage me to begin to "rehabilitate" (their word), my image. Apparently I had received some consideration into "the club" but had also met with some resistance because of my extra curricular Forum type activities. Suggestions were that I attempt to patch things up with Michael Shack, and that I stop participating here (specifically), thus my awareness that this forum has a further reach than I though.

    As politely as I could I declined, which didn't endear me to them (posting this won't either ). You see that is a club, I have always said, I was not interested in. While I respect many members, and these two at the top of that list, I just don't see the point in gathering once a year to pat each other on the back. Maybe later in life that would appeal to me.

    I also believe I have reached out to try to patch things with Mr. Shacky. He wants no part of that. I have done that for my own reasons, being that we are two AP's living in Vegas, I though we might develop a mutual beneficiary relationship, but as I said, he has no interest.
    Do you even read what you write? Now you’re talking about some high-end AP BJ club? Rehabilitate your image? To who? Anonymous forum unknowns? Extra-curricular forum activity? What do they mean by that? The amount of obvious nonsense you post? Patch things up with Mike Shank? MIKE fucking SHANK? Are you losing your mind? Anyone that respects a complete lying moron like SHANK in the gambling world says much about them and this alleged club. What’s the name of this club, HOMO BJ BOYSCOUTS? (pun intended with BJ)

    Just like your big loss, which when you first brought it up awhile ago, I immediately responded that we will be looking forward to the recovery story.

    This club story is a true example of how many wires must be crossed in your mind. You should hook-up with Black-Ass from WOV. The both of you together should be able to print a (fiction) best seller.

    On a personal note I’m seriously feeling sorry for you. How sad must your life actually be?

    I would ask others if any of them ever heard of such a club, but of course your minions would confirm something this stupid. What do you guys do at these annual meetings? Discuss all the money you keep making after 15 years and going unnoticed never having to produce a players card or any id while your club withdraw all this money year after year?

    Did you send Coach that link yet so we could get this out of the way? Of course not, your a fraud.
    Last edited by blackhole; 02-14-2019 at 02:55 PM. Reason: Add text

  4. #264
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    I watched the line on a couple of these games last year and was surprised at how fast it moved when the weather became known. A good example is Wyoming, San Jose State last year. The weather was awful and the over/under dropped like a lead balloon. Even with the lower line, the game still went under. Since I didn’t think those warm weathered Californias would want to deal with that cold windy weather up in Wyoming I did all right on that game, with Wyoming comfortably beating the spread and the game going under.

    Like you said, it’s a lot more complicated than something like card counting. There’s not some majic formula that can make you a winner.
    Excellent eye Bob.

    Sometimes it's just good old fashion common sense with a dash of luck. The only college game I bet in 2017. I'm sitting in a sportsbook in a mindless state. A handicapper is flipping out because the Hawaii at Air Force game halted by lightning followed by a thunderstorm. The guy is rambling on and on about what this will do to his bet and how he will over compensate for the 2nd half. I had no clue what he was talking about.

    But I noticed Washington was playing at Colorado. So I called a friend of mine in Boulder and asked about the weather. HE said, it was a mess and didn't think they'd even play the game. So what the hell, I took the under. They played the game and I picked up some easy money.

    Bob, you're an 19-21 year old kid. It's a torrential downfall. It's Saturday night. The game might get canceled. Are you even thinking about football? I wouldn't have been.

  5. #265
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    I watched the line on a couple of these games last year and was surprised at how fast it moved when the weather became known. A good example is Wyoming, San Jose State last year. The weather was awful and the over/under dropped like a lead balloon. Even with the lower line, the game still went under. Since I didn’t think those warm weathered Californias would want to deal with that cold windy weather up in Wyoming I did all right on that game, with Wyoming comfortably beating the spread and the game going under.

    Like you said, it’s a lot more complicated than something like card counting. There’s not some majic formula that can make you a winner.
    Excellent eye Bob.

    Sometimes it's just good old fashion common sense with a dash of luck. The only college game I bet in 2017. I'm sitting in a sportsbook in a mindless state. A handicapper is flipping out because the Hawaii at Air Force game halted by lightning followed by a thunderstorm. The guy is rambling on and on about what this will do to his bet and how he will over compensate for the 2nd half. I had no clue what he was talking about.

    But I noticed Washington was playing at Colorado. So I called a friend of mine in Boulder and asked about the weather. HE said, it was a mess and didn't think they'd even play the game. So what the hell, I took the under. They played the game and I picked up some easy money.

    Bob, you're an 19-21 year old kid. It's a torrential downfall. It's Saturday night. The game might get canceled. Are you even thinking about football? I wouldn't have been.

    I have probably mentioned this in previous posts, but one of my trickerations back when I spent Saturdays at the Stardust was to stroll down to Circus-Circus. The managers and I were on good terms there, and they would feed me the weather updates as they happened. The Stardust, probably because they were incredibly busy on Saturdays (and also because at the time they generally did not move numbers until there was actual action), was slow to move totals on Saturdays. I'd get the updates at Circus-Circus, trot up to the Stardust, do the appropriate thing, then walk back down to Circus-Circus to take the other side and try to middle it, usually with a bias.

  6. #266
    Redietz: My cousin would probably enjoy meeting you. HE is really into college football. Now he is betting college basketball. He texts his picks to me nearly everyday. He is 26-13. Today, he has Belmont -6.5. Wants to know what I think? Well, first I'd have to look it up on a map. Is it near the track? lol

    Anyway, his thing is to get the top Vegas handicappers picks on Friday night, study, go bet on Saturday morning, and then drive me batty with updates throughout the day. He may even be taking your picks. He doesn't bet a lot. But he does pretty well.

  7. #267
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    KewlJ,

    Did you pm to Coach the link he requested so he could follow up and confirm the claims you made are facts about Rob?

    Did you request to Dan to post Coach's PM's so we could confirm your claims he's colluding with Rob? You promised to leave if there is no proof.

    Of course not, you're a FUCKING FRAUD.
    I did request Dan post PMs between coach belly and Singer. He has not done so. If he does so and it proves there is no colluding between the two, I will leave. But that hasn't happened yet.

    I am not providing coach belly anything. Why can't he do his own research as a number of us here have. He manages to spend hours looking through old threads for some "gottch ya" moments when it suits him, why can't he spend 3 minutes and $3 to look this one up? There are legal issues involved and you and everyone knows it. I am free to say what I found (public information), but posting any kind of screenshot or record of the information, gets into legal areas. I know that's what you are looking for.
    JK, fuck coach(metaphorically that is). I would like to know what site you used to find that information. I'm not looking for any gotcha moments pertaining to you. I'm interested in reading exactly what it says about him. Feel free to PM me the sites name. Perhaps Rob will even allow the information to be posted here. If its not true, he has nothing to worry about.

  8. #268
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I would like to know what site you used to find that information. Feel free to PM me the sites name.
    Nice hijack.

    I hope he sends it and you post the info here, but if he doesn't send anything then what does that tell you?

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I am not providing coach belly anything. Why can't he do his own research as a number of us here have.
    The "us" he mentions includes some of your WOV buddies...MaxPen, for instance, always claims that he has seen a report on Singer. Why don't you get the site info from him?

  9. #269
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post

    Moses response:

    "No. You select better games. Put yourself in a better position to win."

    Moses, that sounds nice if you can find them, but and this is important what is the reality of better games? Even greater volatility especially if you are talking about short term "in hands played" time frames..
    I play my game or I don't play. I still find about 70K hands a year.

    A review of my last few weeks of sessions; 77 wins 55 losses 38 ties/Interruptions. The represented a profit of $5,963. There was a stretch of 800 hands in a short week where I lost $1435 and went 4-8-1. But I quickly identified and corrected a flaw in my game.

    Granted, this is mostly green chips. But take figure x 4 if it were black. Making around $50k a year may not sound like much to the Pros. However, that's $250k over 5 years expense free. Key word is PLAYING. IF I were to play black chips I'd make $100K in 6 months and NOT be allowed to play. Then I'd have to travel. More income comes from sports bet than blackjack. I need to be in Nevada about 8 months out of the year. So, if KJ and RS are so certain my game is flawed, quit talking shit and play me.

    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Moses response:

    "Lots of losers talking about long term. Get game. Let the game come to you.

    The deer doesn't just jump in the truck and say "shoot me, right here."


    Moses, the game edges for the player are very small, and there is plenty of volatility associated with the game. What is it that you cannot accept that players should be immune to short term swings? In the case of of higher limit players it is only natural that swings will be more profound. We are talking about shoe games with much bigger spreads.
    I never look beyond the session I'm playing. I refuse to refer to a loss as a long run goal. If I did? I'd get soft. Plus the opponent wins by forfeit. How can one plan on long term under that scenario?

    Variance: My minimum bet results may be slightly better than most because my large bet frequency is minimal by comparison. Maybe this is why I don't have these large fluctuations. Plus my game is designed with a defensive strategy. Control the game, don't make mistakes, and don't get too far down and a comeback isn't necessary. I don't believe this variance monster follows around me from casino to casino.
    My mistakes represent far more volatility...and that's a pisser.

    I will only touch on this because I know it will drive you nuts. The percentage count is designed pull more quality hands out of less pen. Perhaps a Don S/Thorp approach as includes both philosophies.

    A column count will work with less pen but it takes more hands to get the same profit. Although the deck compositions are maximized, The frequency is less because they are also shuffled away.


    No. I don't believe you can attribute variance to losing $29k in a week. Piss poor play? Maxpens monkey wouldn't play that bad.

    Moses, I hope you realize if this was a blackjack board I would be the only one defending you right now. Explaining to everyone that you are speaking strictly from a single deck perspective "which they already know" and is not looking or trying to evaluate the more prevalent shoe games. I know you do not need me trying to defend you, but, is it not possible that you are being a little unreasonable here, or perhaps stubborn? You know damn well your arguements have nothing to do with shoe games.

  10. #270
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Moses, I hope you realize if this was a blackjack board I would be the only one defending you right now. Explaining to everyone that you are speaking strictly from a single deck perspective "which they already know" and is not looking or trying to evaluate the more prevalent shoe games. I know you do not need me trying to defend you, but, is it not possible that you are being a little unreasonable here, or perhaps stubborn? You know damn well your arguements have nothing to do with shoe games.
    Let me get back to you Bosox. You know it's the day to keep the lady happy. Don't Forget.

  11. #271
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I have never recommended anyone come to this forum. I would not feel comfortable recommending this forum in it's current shit-hole, hate induced condition. The closest I got was asking Richard Munchkin to visit and comment on a specific topic, tracking multiple tables. I was not surprised when munchkin took a look at this forum and decided he wanted no part of it.

    While I have never recommended nor encouraged anyone to come to this forum, I suspect that fact that I participate here has influenced a few legitimate players to visit. Unfortunately most aren't here long and are quickly driven away once they experience what this site is.

    And on the flip side, There are people that have a rather strong dislike for me, and I know for a fact, some of them have shown up here because I am here, so it has worked both ways. Unfortunately hate being such a strong emotion, the haters end up staying around.
    This whole post is just another confirmation of how far you're willing to go with bullshit. You're the biggest fraud on here and can't take being called out on it. Did you give the link to Coach to look up for himself what you claim you found on Rob? No, of course not cause you're a bullshitting fraud.

    Did you tell Dan to publish Coach's PM's so you could live up to your promise and leave here. No, of course not, you're a fucking fraud.

    It's obvious why you get thrown out of forums. You're a fucking fraud, bullshitting, homo. Maybe you'll choke on a big load and really kick the bucket, not like your fraud claim of dying in the past. Shut the fuck up with your fantasy gambling escapades.
    One thing about you, blackhole, is you are not a fraud. You've been bragging about dumping your hard earned money in the casinos ever since you got here. Show me a happy loser and I will show you a loser. You're a loser, dufless. A stinkin' loser. You probably got a big S tatood on your forehead for all the world to see and it don't stand for superman. It stands for SUCKER. So long, suckerbitch.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #272
    Originally Posted by blackhole View Post
    KewlJ,

    Did you pm to Coach the link he requested so he could follow up and confirm the claims you made are facts about Rob?

    Did you request to Dan to post Coach's PM's (which Coach authorized)so we could confirm your claims he's colluding with Rob? You promised to leave if there is no proof.

    Of course not, you're a FUCKING FRAUD.
    Do you own work you fucking punk. You two cocksuckers sat idly by while Argentino made one outrageous claim after another. Not one peep from you two morons. Do your own fucking research, assclown.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #273
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Do your own fucking research
    You are putting up a lot of resistance to getting the Singer report posted on this forum.

    It's expected that you would help facilitate the exchange of information, but your angry roadblock attitude is suspicious.

    Is there some reason that you don't want the report posted here?

  14. #274
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Do your own fucking research
    You are putting up a lot of resistance to getting the Singer report posted on this forum.

    It's expected that you would help facilitate the exchange of information, but your angry roadblock attitude is suspicious.

    Is there some reason that you don't want the report posted here?
    PAY FOR THE SHIT YOURSELF YOU GOD DAMN IDIOT!!!!

  15. #275
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Redietz: My cousin would probably enjoy meeting you. HE is really into college football. Now he is betting college basketball. He texts his picks to me nearly everyday. He is 26-13. Today, he has Belmont -6.5. Wants to know what I think? Well, first I'd have to look it up on a map. Is it near the track? lol

    Anyway, his thing is to get the top Vegas handicappers picks on Friday night, study, go bet on Saturday morning, and then drive me batty with updates throughout the day. He may even be taking your picks. He doesn't bet a lot. But he does pretty well.
    Quick note: I don't do straight wagering on college basketball; just futures. But it is considered the sport most likely to yield a profit to experts. I did it experimentally 25 years ago for two years, but I made almost no profit on about 60 plays a season, and I basically had no plays by the 20th game or so, which is when the power ratings become incredibly accurate. There are some real savants out there who can do some damage. I learned a long time ago that eyeballing basketball games for me yields no predictive value, other than that I can eliminate certain size/speed teams from futures consideration because they lack this or that. A good friend of mine went to Belmont. It's a private school in Nashville. The current coach is something of an underappreciated legend.

  16. #276
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    PAY FOR THE SHIT YOURSELF
    I'm ready to pay, I just need to know what site tewlj used so I can get the same report that he bought, which shows the food stamp banning or disqualification or whatever.

  17. #277
    As far as the Singer report goes , it is not hard to find. I'm not sure about $3. I used a service my old employer subscribed to for background checks. I didn't pay the bills for it so not sure who it was thru. I think it may have been instant checkmate or something like that. Probably cost a person $20 or so.
    Almost all those places are similar. They all show court records, property records, criminal records, liens, judgements, past residences, current residences, past employers, phone numbers, et. al.

  18. #278
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Do your own fucking research
    You are putting up a lot of resistance to getting the Singer report posted on this forum.

    It's expected that you would help facilitate the exchange of information, but your angry roadblock attitude is suspicious.

    Is there some reason that you don't want the report posted here?
    I want it posted here and I want you to get off your lazy stinkin' ass and post it, bitch. For once in your life do something for yourself instead of demanding everyone else do it for you, welfare queen.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #279
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    As far as the Singer report goes , it is not hard to find. I'm not sure about $3. I used a service my old employer subscribed to for background checks. I didn't pay the bills for it so not sure who it was thru. I think it may have been instant checkmate or something like that. Probably cost a person $20 or so.
    Almost all those places are similar. They all show court records, property records, criminal records, liens, judgements, past residences, current residences, past employers, phone numbers, et. al.
    One of the things one will find is that while Argentino was portraying himself living in large houses for years he was actually living in small apartments. And he had judgements against him on those apartments. There is a thread here where Argentino is showing off the house he was living in. The thread was just a few years ago. He portrayed himself as the owner but it turned out it was his daughters house from her previous marriage....and the parents moved in when she ran off to Minnesota with another man. So much for the Argentino happy family life. Now, this was just a typical tract home. Nothing fancy. So why would Argentino want to be showing it off here on VCT? BECAUSE IT WAS THE FIRST TIME HE HAD EVER LIVED IN A HOUSE INSTEAD OF AN APARTMENT. He was beating his chest about it to all of us here. Only thing was Arci discovered it was his daughter's house. Of course that's when Argentino came up with the living inheritance bullshit. You can't make this stuff up, right BH? When it comes to prevarication Argentino has more routes than Greyhound Bus Lines.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #280
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    As far as the Singer report goes , it is not hard to find. I'm not sure about $3. I used a service my old employer subscribed to for background checks. I didn't pay the bills for it so not sure who it was thru. I think it may have been instant checkmate or something like that. Probably cost a person $20 or so.
    Almost all those places are similar. They all show court records, property records, criminal records, liens, judgements, past residences, current residences, past employers, phone numbers, et. al.
    One of the things one will find is that while Argentino was portraying himself living in large houses for years he was actually living in small apartments. And he had judgements against him on those apartments. There is a thread here where Argentino is showing off the house he was living in. The thread was just a few years ago. He portrayed himself as the owner but it turned out it was his daughters house from her previous marriage....and the parents moved in when she ran off to Minnesota with another man. So much for the Argentino happy family life. Now, this was just a typical tract home. Nothing fancy. So why would Argentino want to be showing it off here on VCT? BECAUSE IT WAS THE FIRST TIME HE HAD EVER LIVED IN A HOUSE INSTEAD OF AN APARTMENT. He was beating his chest about it to all of us here. Only thing was Arci discovered it was his daughter's house. Of course that's when Argentino came up with the living inheritance bullshit. You can't make this stuff up, right BH? When it comes to prevarication Argentino has more routes than Greyhound Bus Lines.
    Same thread he posted pictures of two cars and he was all proud of owning “an expensive Hyundai”. Lol doesn’t get much better than that.
    #FreeTyde

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