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Thread: The rollercoaster that is professional card counting.

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  1. #1
    So some of you may remember back in September when I shared that I dad hit the million dollar milestone (year15) as far as blackjack results. A day or two after that was my last all-time high (ATH), as the following week, I experienced my work week of my blackjack career dropping 29k, including not one but two, five figure losing days (which are rare for me) in the same week. You might remember some of the goofy comments about how I should used some sort of 'stop limit' (voodoo concept).

    So anyway, I spent the last almost 4 months bouncing around between 20-30k below that last ATH. So a pretty nice little run over the past couple week and I am once again at a new ATH.

    I post this only to show the kind of elongated swings and down periods that card counters playing with such a small edge and huge variance deal with regularly.

    This period, just short of 4 months between ATH's, was actually fairly mild. I have had 4 different period that lasted 6 months and probably another 4 or 5 that have lasted at least this long (4 months). These periods usually result in a big loss and slow climb back, as this one did. The point is a blackjack card counter must be properly bankrolled and able to handle these elongated swings....because they will occur.

  2. #2
    "The point is a blackjack card counter must be properly bankrolled and able to handle these elongated swings....because they will occur. "

    For some of the beginners out there who are playing while building a bankroll, risk of ruin formulas are meant for 100% reinvestment of all winnings. Unless you have other sources of replinishing your bank, your risk will go through the roof if you are drawing from the bank on a regular basis. More than likely you will end up broke. Successful players who are moving up in levels of betting, play to a low ROR . Not only for perservation of capital but also to help avoid having to go back and forth downsizing which is not a plesant experiance.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-07-2019 at 07:19 AM.

  3. #3
    Question: Could it be the 2? I know nothing about the shoe game. But, from what I've read, KJ does a better job than most when it comes to reducing variance. Still, his swings are volatile.

    In a pitch game, the 2 is of little consequence. A deficit played/surplus remaining might put a HiLo player into a bet they shouldn't make. A surplus played/deficit remaining could prevent a bet with a very strong deck composition.

    IT appears to me KJ sets the standard for shoes. He knows when to get in and when to get out and has the discipline to do so. Easier said than done. He counts two tables at the same time which ultimately reduces variance and increases his position of power.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    But, from what I've read, KJ does a better job than most when it comes to reducing variance.
    Actually I don't do a good job at reducing variance....not at this point of my career. (I'll get to that in a second).

    Early on, when I was starting out, playing very underfunded and building my BR, I did something that really reduced variance. I did it by accident. And what it was, was I played lousy games, the lousy mediocre penetration games of Atlantic City.

    Playing such games is going to result in a low win rate, but it is also going to reduce variance, in that you will see fewer really high counts, max bets counts, where if you happen to lose a bunch of them in a row, will devastate a small BR. Instead you will see more small, moderate high counts. Not max bet counts, but counts that you only have a moderately higher bet out. The result is the win rate will be small, which is why it took me so long to build my BR, but on the positive side, the variance will be less, especially those severe negative swings. Like I said, I didn't plan for any of that....just stumbled into it by circumstance.

    Now back to the present. Now that I have built a decent bankroll, which has been the case for a while now, reducing variance is not top priority. Top priority is longevity. I want to continue to play for a while, unlike many professional card counter's who are done after 5 years (some less), unable to play. So I do things designed to increase longevity. And the cost of that is usually either slightly less win rate or increased variance. The trick is to find a balance.

    I'll give an example of one thing in particular. Multiple bet spreads and ramps. At different casinos I use different spread and ramps on basically the same game, based on what I have determined is a tolerance level for that circumstance. This will play havoc with variance, but greatly increase longevity. Also recently I talked about something else, sort of related that I do (and it was the only time I have ever mentioned it) that sends variance through the roof, but is tremendous cover. Duel spread and ramps. That is all I am going to say. Not going to go into detail again. You can afford to make these kind of decisions if properly bankrolled. But the result will be a little more extreme variance.

    I don't know, maybe because I now play a style that "invites" a little more variance, it is not right that I talk about such swings when they occur. But I have always tried to share my journey, plus there is a little bit of self soothing venting that occurs. Even though you understand an extended negative period and even play a style that "invited" it, it still helps to vent a little when you are down for months at a time.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    The point is a blackjack card counter must be properly bankrolled and able to handle these elongated swings....because they will occur.
    This post almost seems directed at me. I`m sure just by coincidence though, because you`ve always been really helpful and nice to me so I can`t see you doing that. Anyway, I emailed you at blackjackinfo the same day you made this post that`s why I said that. You probably just haven`t seen it yet. The title of the email is about how I`ve been on a sick downswing, but really the point of the email was asking you your opinion on my idea of tweaking a specific element of my game because of that.

    One thing I`ve learned since starting to count cards is, you can look at the sims/numbers/stats/whatever and see how bad your scenario can get. However, when you`re in that situation, there`s nothing that can prepare you for being in that situation and getting absolutely decimated in short order. To quote Mike Tyson (not something I do often, but it`s appropriate): "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". I think this sums up a horrific downswing nicely. You can have a plan that looks really good on paper, but when things go really south, it makes you analyze what you`re doing and start thinking if there`s anyway you can do to improve your approach. As for my situation, I don`t have to resize or anything thankfully, but I`m looking to make other improvements. This isn`t my first downswing or anything like that, but this one really shook me. That could be an interesting topic of discussion for KJ, Moses, BoSox, or any of the other counters on this site: have you ever had a downswing so terrible that it made you take a break to analyze your strategies? Keep in mind I`ve been tweaking my strategies constantly ever since I started playing, however in this instance it made me literally stop playing before moving forward.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post

    One thing I`ve learned since starting to count cards is, you can look at the sims/numbers/stats/whatever and see how bad your scenario can get. However, when you`re in that situation, there`s nothing that can prepare you for being in that situation and getting absolutely decimated in short order. To quote Mike Tyson (not something I do often, but it`s appropriate): "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". I think this sums up a horrific downswing nicely. You can have a plan that looks really good on paper, but when things go really south, it makes you analyze what you`re doing and start thinking if there`s anyway you can do to improve your approach. As for my situation, I don`t have to resize or anything thankfully, but I`m looking to make other improvements. This isn`t my first downswing or anything like that, but this one really shook me. That could be an interesting topic of discussion for KJ, Moses, BoSox, or any of the other counters on this site: have you ever had a downswing so terrible that it made you take a break to analyze your strategies?
    Ok, I did answer your Pm on the other forum, but since you also posted some of it here and Bosox has responded, I will add a little something here to. As to the line I made bold. Yes, there is something that can prepare you, but unfortunately it isn't the sims, or reading about the possibility of such downswings, it is actually going through a few and coming out the other side. Easier said than done, I know. But it really is something you have to experience a few times.

    But, while the sims, the reading about such swings in books and online, and even reading about other players going through such swings, doesn't completely prepare you for it, it helps. Knowledge is powerful things. And in particular other players, on these forums, that you sort of get to know, even if you haven't met them....reading their experiences in this area, as they go through these experiences, in particular is valuable. I think that is one of the most valuable things of the card counting/AP communities and forums. Players sharing their experiences for the benefit of one another. That has always been my draw.

    Unfortunately it has also been my undoing, as I get very upset, when here are frauds or phony members making unrealistic claims that mislead other players. I take that sort of personally. Maybe harder than I should, but I just think we (legitimate players) have a responsibility to call out that BS. And it has gotten me into trouble a bit.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by SplitFaceDisaster View Post

    One thing I`ve learned since starting to count cards is, you can look at the sims/numbers/stats/whatever and see how bad your scenario can get. However, when you`re in that situation, there`s nothing that can prepare you for being in that situation and getting absolutely decimated in short order. To quote Mike Tyson (not something I do often, but it`s appropriate): "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face". I think this sums up a horrific downswing nicely. You can have a plan that looks really good on paper, but when things go really south, it makes you analyze what you`re doing and start thinking if there`s anyway you can do to improve your approach. As for my situation, I don`t have to resize or anything thankfully, but I`m looking to make other improvements. This isn`t my first downswing or anything like that, but this one really shook me. That could be an interesting topic of discussion for KJ, Moses, BoSox, or any of the other counters on this site: have you ever had a downswing so terrible that it made you take a break to analyze your strategies?
    Ok, I did answer your Pm on the other forum, but since you also posted some of it here and Bosox has responded, I will add a little something here to. As to the line I made bold. Yes, there is something that can prepare you, but unfortunately it isn't the sims, or reading about the possibility of such downswings, it is actually going through a few and coming out the other side. Easier said than done, I know. But it really is something you have to experience a few times.

    But, while the sims, the reading about such swings in books and online, and even reading about other players going through such swings, doesn't completely prepare you for it, it helps. Knowledge is powerful things. And in particular other players, on these forums, that you sort of get to know, even if you haven't met them....reading their experiences in this area, as they go through these experiences, in particular is valuable. I think that is one of the most valuable things of the card counting/AP communities and forums. Players sharing their experiences for the benefit of one another. That has always been my draw.

    Unfortunately it has also been my undoing, as I get very upset, when here are frauds or phony members making unrealistic claims that mislead other players. I take that sort of personally. Maybe harder than I should, but I just think we (legitimate players) have a responsibility to call out that BS. And it has gotten me into trouble a bit.
    Yeah, going through it a few times will surely help, along with interacting with others. That week you described recently is just pretty jarring to even hear about; I can`t imagine something like that. I`ve been through some swings so far that seemed pretty big for my level of play... Nothing like this one though, and it`s only a -2 SD swing. I can`t even imagine how bad a -3 SD swing would be!

  8. #8
    No splitface, not directed at you. I wouldn't do that. If you ask me something privately, I will answer in private. I just haven't yet seen your pm. I will get to it when I get home.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    No splitface, not directed at you. I wouldn't do that. If you ask me something privately, I will answer in private. I just haven't yet seen your pm. I will get to it when I get home.
    Yeah, I figured the timing had to be a coincidence and you wouldn`t do something like that. As I said, you`ve always been very helpful to me and I really appreciate that. I thought I`d comment on the thread since the subject matter was similar to what I`ve been going through also.

  10. #10
    I'll be honest.

    The thing I hate about blackjack is that you can never play long enough to smooth out the variance.

    You can get destroyed at the beginning of a session, and you know you're never coming close to breaking even, and in fact it will take a number of future sessions at average luck to get back to even.

    It's soul crushing.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll be honest.

    The thing I hate about blackjack is that you can never play long enough to smooth out the variance.

    You can get destroyed at the beginning of a session, and you know you're never coming close to breaking even, and in fact it will take a number of future sessions at average luck to get back to even.

    It's soul crushing.
    There is some voodoo-ism in your statement Dan Druff. I expected a little more from you. Your post sounds like something Alan would say.

    I don't play poker Dan, so I can't make a comparison to that, but we both play VP (although I am getting a way from it). So in VP, you can have that same "get destroyed" early on. But you know if you keep playing, you will hit some big hands and eventually a royal or two and results will come in line with expectation. It is long-term thinking. Same with Blackjack. Why would you even make that kind of silly Mendelson-like statement?

    Almost anything in the casino, short term results can reak havoc.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll be honest.

    The thing I hate about blackjack is that you can never play long enough to smooth out the variance.

    You can get destroyed at the beginning of a session, and you know you're never coming close to breaking even, and in fact it will take a number of future sessions at average luck to get back to even.

    It's soul crushing.
    There is some voodoo-ism in your statement Dan Druff. I expected a little more from you. Your post sounds like something Alan would say.

    I don't play poker Dan, so I can't make a comparison to that, but we both play VP (although I am getting a way from it). So in VP, you can have that same "get destroyed" early on. But you know if you keep playing, you will hit some big hands and eventually a royal or two and results will come in line with expectation. It is long-term thinking. Same with Blackjack. Why would you even make that kind of silly Mendelson-like statement?

    Almost anything in the casino, short term results can reak havoc.
    I'm not really talking about short term results.

    I'm talking about how the control to play a longer session is taken out of your hands.

    Let's say I found a 101% return VP machine and was playing it close to perfectly.

    And let's say I was still running bad and losing (which is quite possible) for the first hour.

    I can say, "Well, this is a 101% machine, so I'll just keep pressing through, and eventually it will probably turn around."

    I can't with blackjack. All sessions have to be short. So you get off to a terrible start, ad you know you're not coming back from it.

    It's very frustrating.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    All sessions have to be short. So you get off to a terrible start, ad you know you're not coming back from it.

    It's very frustrating.
    Ahhh yeah, If you get off to a terrible start, maybe you aren't coming back from it.....THAT DAY. Maybe not even in the next couple days, Maybe weeks. But if you are playing a +EV game, and playing a sound game, you will come back from it at some point.

    Dan have you developed a mentality where you need to win everyday? Do you win everyday in Poker? Do you win every day playing VP? I don't get what you are saying. I mean seriously, Dan Druff, you are starting to sound like some of these guys that don't understand advantage play and long-term thinking. I am scared they have rubbed off on you.

    I mean seriously Dan Druff....what is your rush to win? Did you develop some sort of terminal disease (I hope not), where you have to win today, because you may not have a tomorrow? You don't win everyday....you win longterm.

    It is true that blackjack AP (via card counting) is a more of a grind than other forms of AP. I happen to think that the high variance associated with blackjack is why casinos still offer beatable blackjack games. If everyone was going to win everyday, I can guarantee we would be looking at one hell of a lot of CSM blackjack, 6:5 blackjack, and horrible penetration, 50% shoe games, and 1 or 2 rounds on handheld games. You don't win everyday! If that is frustrating to you, yeah, I guess you shouldn't play blackjack.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    All sessions have to be short. So you get off to a terrible start, ad you know you're not coming back from it.

    It's very frustrating.
    Ahhh yeah, If you get off to a terrible start, maybe you aren't coming back from it.....THAT DAY. Maybe not even in the next couple days, Maybe weeks. But if you are playing a +EV game, and playing a sound game, you will come back from it at some point.

    Dan have you developed a mentality where you need to win everyday? Do you win everyday in Poker? Do you win every day playing VP? I don't get what you are saying. I mean seriously, Dan Druff, you are starting to sound like some of these guys that don't understand advantage play and long-term thinking. I am scared they have rubbed off on you.

    I mean seriously Dan Druff....what is your rush to win? Did you develop some sort of terminal disease (I hope not), where you have to win today, because you may not have a tomorrow? You don't win everyday....you win longterm.

    It is true that blackjack AP (via card counting) is a more of a grind than other forms of AP. I happen to think that the high variance associated with blackjack is why casinos still offer beatable blackjack games. If everyone was going to win everyday, I can guarantee we would be looking at one hell of a lot of CSM blackjack, 6:5 blackjack, and horrible penetration, 50% shoe games, and 1 or 2 rounds on handheld games. You don't win everyday! If that is frustrating to you, yeah, I guess you shouldn't play blackjack.
    Because it's psychologically frustrating.

    Yes, I lose in poker some days. Hell, I go through losing MONTHS in poker.

    But rarely do I get off to such a bad start in a poker session where I have to immediately declare, "Not only am I losing today, but it will probably be several sessions from now until I get back what I lost in this short period of time."

    As said, the lack of control of session length is just frustrating. If I could control the session length in blackjack, the bad sessions would be tolerable. Knowing I just got beat down and have to leave a good game is frustrating.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I'll be honest.

    The thing I hate about blackjack is that you can never play long enough to smooth out the variance.

    You can get destroyed at the beginning of a session, and you know you're never coming close to breaking even, and in fact it will take a number of future sessions at average luck to get back to even.

    It's soul crushing.
    There is some voodoo-ism in your statement Dan Druff. I expected a little more from you. Your post sounds like something Alan would say.

    I don't play poker Dan, so I can't make a comparison to that, but we both play VP (although I am getting a way from it). So in VP, you can have that same "get destroyed" early on. But you know if you keep playing, you will hit some big hands and eventually a royal or two and results will come in line with expectation. It is long-term thinking. Same with Blackjack. Why would you even make that kind of silly Mendelson-like statement?

    Almost anything in the casino, short term results can reak havoc.
    I'm not really talking about short term results.

    I'm talking about how the control to play a longer session is taken out of your hands.

    Let's say I found a 101% return VP machine and was playing it close to perfectly.

    And let's say I was still running bad and losing (which is quite possible) for the first hour.

    I can say, "Well, this is a 101% machine, so I'll just keep pressing through, and eventually it will probably turn around."

    I can't with blackjack. All sessions have to be short. So you get off to a terrible start, ad you know you're not coming back from it.

    It's very frustrating.
    Regarding that 101% game, you are saying that you may be behind for the first hour, what you think you cannot be behind and tired and short on cash after playing anywhere from 5 to 10 hours or more? If the machine is paying out top heavy on payouts and you do not hit your share of them over a 1000 hours do you still think you are playing at an advantage when knowing you will need at least 2 royals to get even? You are still playing to an advantage just like the blackjack player who is expierencing a bad run but either of you will not get your money back today.
    Last edited by BoSox; 02-11-2019 at 04:59 AM.

  16. #16
    I wish people would stop referring to BJ as some super volatile game and focus on the real problem. Which is the length of time it takes to get exposure to the advantage, if counting.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    I wish people would stop referring to BJ as some super volatile game and focus on the real problem. Which is the length of time it takes to get exposure to the advantage, if counting.
    Yes, and that goes along with the issue I was bringing up, which is that after you get such exposure to the advantage, you have a very short window in which you can win, and then you have to bolt from the game, whether winning or losing.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    I wish people would stop referring to BJ as some super volatile game and focus on the real problem. Which is the length of time it takes to get exposure to the advantage, if counting.
    Yes, and that goes along with the issue I was bringing up, which is that after you get such exposure to the advantage, you have a very short window in which you can win, and then you have to bolt from the game, whether winning or losing.
    Big deal. THAT is your complaint, that you have to work a little to gain an advantage....that it isn't just handed to you? Good grief.

    Anyway, what do I care. Don't do card counting. I never encouraged anyone to pursue card counting.

    (well no one on a forum. I did encourage and teach my late partner to learn to play some games with an advantage, rather than just donate his money as he was doing when I met him. I also taught my brother, but only after I did everything in my power to dissuade him from pursuing card counting and AP).
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-10-2019 at 09:41 PM.

  19. #19
    Working hard is very overrated 😉

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    I wish people would stop referring to BJ as some super volatile game and focus on the real problem. Which is the length of time it takes to get exposure to the advantage, if counting.
    Good point. But if that were the case, our new problem would be finding a table.

    Originally Posted by MaxPen View Post
    Working hard is very overrated ��
    Work smart so you don't have to work so hard.

    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
    Of course, being one of the most knowledgable persons in the world will not help you out if you are way under bankrolled, and undisciplined. Not to mention possessing all three requirements and you may be refused to play. No one said it would be easy.
    Knowledge reduces risk. The big pockets sustain themselves with discipline and patience. A $100K a year sounds great until someone says they lose $29K in a week. Great just became unique.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-11-2019 at 08:31 AM.

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