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Thread: The rollercoaster that is professional card counting.

  1. #41
    Speaking of the Patriots, was there a line on Brady's first pass attempt in the SB being an INT? If there was, I assume it was big.

  2. #42
    No need to cherry pick if you didn't keep bringing it up. Now Zee, for example, seems to travel to Vegas 3 or 4 times a year, driving 3 1/2 to 4 hours just to get to a table a couple of times a month. Yet, clears $35k annually, walking away from positive counts etc, etc. But you really work at it full time for just 3 times more? Zee never seems to lose even $5K on a trip. So Zee is a better player than you? Hmmm, my quarter says no. But his alleged profit per hand suggests differently.

    Now, in a 5 week period in 2013, you made $110K. That's 220 more wins than losses at $500 per large bet...and you never got banned?

    I've been playing since the mid 80s. Never saw a swing like that in either direction. But you always recover quickly. THAT's where the money could be made...setting on over/under on the number of weeks it will take until you fully recover.

  3. #43
    Zee plays scared. He'd make a lot more if he didn't "walk away." He also doesn't get bets out when called for. Nor does he make proper deviations when called for.

    If you play this game, or any other, with emotions, you're in for a bumpy ride. Money and chips are just a tool. They don't cry, get mad, or anything else. Treat them like a "tool" and you'll be much better off.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Zee plays scared. He'd make a lot more if he didn't "walk away." He also doesn't get bets out when called for. Nor does he make proper deviations when called for..
    I agree. Quite frankly, I'd be surprised if he made a nickel.

    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    If you play this game, or any other, with emotions, you're in for a bumpy ride.
    $29K isn't bumpy?

    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Money and chips are just a tool. They don't cry, get mad, or anything else. Treat them like a "tool" and you'll be much better off..
    I agree. Take care of your money/tools and they take care of you. Ever see a guy mishandle a chain saw? His nickname is "sta-sta-stubby" for a reason.

    Assad Off Mydamfanger.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-11-2019 at 10:37 AM.

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    No need to cherry pick if you didn't keep bringing it up. Now Zee, for example, seems to travel to Vegas 3 or 4 times a year, driving 3 1/2 to 4 hours just to get to a table a couple of times a month. Yet, clears $35k annually, walking away from positive counts etc, etc. But you really work at it full time for just 3 times more? Zee never seems to lose even $5K on a trip. So Zee is a better player than you? Hmmm, my quarter says no. But his alleged profit per hand suggests differently.

    Now, in a 5 week period in 2013, you made $110K. That's 220 more wins than losses at $500 per large bet...and you never got banned?

    I've been playing since the mid 80s. Never saw a swing like that in either direction. But you always recover quickly. THAT's where the money could be made...setting on over/under on the number of weeks it will take until you fully recover.
    Moses, you are cherry-picking Zee's numbers and results. I know because I used to communicate privately with Zee fairly regularly, offering advice and opinions, in part because I felt like he was getting a really hard time from some in the community that he just seemed to rub the wrong way (some of it he deserved).

    So Zee may have had one year where he cleared 35k...was it last year? But that is not his average. He hasn't made 175k in his 5 years of play. He has probably made half of that, meaning his average yearly is 15-20k. That's a nice part-time/hobby income.

    Zee's problem especially early on was just what jbjb said. At times Zee was afraid to throw out his max bet. That surely bought him some longevity as some casino personnel rightfully decided he wasn't playing a strong game.

    You also can't really compare a part-time player who travels quite a bit to a full time player like me, who is lazy in the travel department and plays primarily one home rotation. It's just apples to oranges. If you want to think Zee is a better player than I, go for it. I am pretty damn sure you don't really think that, but are just trying to get a rise out of me.

  6. #46
    I said, "my quarter says no." Here is a player that can't get out of his own way. Yet, still makes $35k a year. I don't read back. But even one year is a shocker.

    About 90 more wins than losses over the course of 10k hands is normal. 10 in either direction is a swing. Either you are controlling the game or the game is controlling you.

    KJ works hard and exercises patience and discipline to minimize his negative decks. Zee does not. So even if he is playing minimum bets hands at even, he must win 200 more hands than he loses annually to reach $100K. Zee walks away from these opportunities and makes $35K? C'mon Maaaan.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-11-2019 at 11:23 AM.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    $29K isn't bumpy?
    Depends. To someone with a $100k roll, sure. To a team with a multi-million dollar roll, no.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Now, in a 5 week period in 2013, you made $110K. That's 220 more wins than losses at $500 per large bet...and you never got banned?
    I believe I had one "official" backoff during that stretch. That is what playing a large rotation of 30+ casinos, playing different shifts, and carefully keeping records of personnel involved, so as to avoid some after "unusual" events, can do for you.

    But, while I only had 1 official backoff, I did have some situations that drew heat and I imposed my own backoff to a handful of stores, while things cooled down. In the end, I felt so exposed, I actually took almost two months off that summer, to let things cool down....a self imposed Vegas backoff. Have never done that before or since.

    It has been my experience that heat and back offs aren't so much generated by winning. It is just about exposure. The big bets and more specifically retreating from those big bets are the problem. Winning or losing has less to do with it than showing your spread. That is the danger zone. Actually losing has always been more of a problem drawing heat than winning for me. I decided early on that the problem was that players, myself included, often think that losing buys them some sort of immunity, when it doesn't. So they (we) stayed longer, played longer and showed more of our spread (exposure). And the next thing you know heat and backoffs….often on the next visit.

    So while I don't think winning particularly adds and problems, in normal cases, such an unusual occurrence that I described, may require different action, if you want to keep playing. I mean if you happen to be on a tear where you just seem to be winning a lot, winning most of your double downs and max bets and happen to register some bigger than "normal" wins in one or two store, or with one or two particular pit folks, you better take some action before they do....if you are concerned with longevity. Usually just a break of a couple months (cooling down period) will work. If it is a specific pit person, I may avoid them for 6 months. Detailed records is key.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Depends. To someone with a $100k roll, sure. To a team with a multi-million dollar roll, no.
    You can add a 0 to the roll for me and the cheese would start sliding of my cracker.

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I believe I had one "official" backoff during that stretch. That is what playing a large rotation of 30+ casinos, playing different shifts, and carefully keeping records of personnel involved, so as to avoid some after "unusual" events, can do for you.
    For most, that's going to require 5 states as opposed to one city.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    But, while I only had 1 official backoff, I did have some situations that drew heat and I imposed my own backoff to a handful of stores, while things cooled down. In the end, I felt so exposed, I actually took almost two months off that summer, to let things cool down....a self imposed Vegas backoff. Have never done that before or since..
    So actually your profit was spread over a 17 or 18 week span.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    It has been my experience that heat and back offs aren't so much generated by winning. It is just about exposure. The big bets and more specifically retreating from those big bets are the problem. Winning or losing has less to do with it than showing your spread. That is the danger zone. Actually losing has always been more of a problem drawing heat than winning for me. I decided early on that the problem was that players, myself included, often think that losing buys them some sort of immunity, when it doesn't. So they (we) stayed longer, played longer and showed more of our spread (exposure). And the next thing you know heat and backoffs….often on the next visit.
    It's been my experience that once you push the wrong person's button, they never or it takes years for them to forget you. So don't push their buttons.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    So while I don't think winning particularly adds and problems, in normal cases, such an unusual occurrence that I described, may require different action, if you want to keep playing. I mean if you happen to be on a tear where you just seem to be winning a lot, winning most of your double downs and max bets and happen to register some bigger than "normal" wins in one or two store, or with one or two particular pit folks, you better take some action before they do....if you are concerned with longevity. Usually just a break of a couple months (cooling down period) will work. If it is a specific pit person, I may avoid them for 6 months..
    When I was killing them. They were killing me.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Detailed records is key.
    My records are about sessions, wins, loss, ties, and interruptions. Playing within their tolerance is key. I do it with a 5 store rotation as opposed to 30. But once you whiz off the wrong person, bad news travels fast? No, a supersonic speed.

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Depends. To someone with a $100k roll, sure. To a team with a multi-million dollar roll, no.
    You can add a 0 to the roll for me and the cheese would start sliding of my cracker.
    Unlike jbjb (an/or his team), I don't have a million dollar bankroll. But I do have more than 100k. I don't know what it is fair to say my bankroll is.

    My buddy Kim Lee used to tell me a players entire wealth was his bankroll. And I used to argue like hell with him. Now I am not so sure he isn't right.

    I start every year with 100k in funds that I designate as my BR. I break the BR from the previous year, reset to 100k, placing any excess into my personal funds. If I were to have a losing year, which hasn't occurred, I would replenish to that starting 100k from personal funds.

    So, start every year at 100k. If I were to lose that during the course of the year, which has never come close to happening, I could easily replenshible to a second 100k. If necessary, I could go a 3rd 100k, but it would require liquidating some things, maybe taking a mortgage )loan) on property. I could probably come close to a 4th but that would really be deep into selling off everything.

    Now would I do that? That used to be my argument with Kim Lee, that a player wouldn't really do that. Now I don't know what the answer is. That is one of those things you can't really answer until you are in that situation. I can tell you this much....I believe in the math, so much that I would risk everything I had on the math.

    BUT, the math also say losing 2, 3, 100k BR's can't happen. Mathematically impossible stuff. So while I would be willing to do it because I believe in the math, believing in the math also means that this scenario couldn't happen. So if the impossible happened and I lost say 2 different 100k BR's, I would have to take a serious look, a re-evaluate and try to figure out what the F*** is going on. Was I being cheated? Had I developed holes in my game? Had the game changed in a manner that I had not accounted for? Had I lost all discipline and was somehow chasing losses (this is related to hole's in my game).

    Anyway, I can tell you this, a 29k loss seems like one hell of a lot, if you say you are playing to a 100k BR. But look in context. I was in the second half of a year that I was already almost 130k ahead! Much further ahead than expectation. In that context, while it still burns, it almost seems more like "a correction".

    I'll tell you the year that was much more difficult for me was 2013. I began the year with my 100k BR and immediately went red. By Mid April I was 32K (I believe) in the red. That is a third of my bankroll...well at least what I call my bankroll. I was debating whether it was time, to reduce my spread and max bet as real Kelly wagering calls for. I have never had to do that and frankly the idea of trying to "win back" losses with reduced spread and max bets seems a nightmare scenario.

    So I decided to press on for a bit more. I set 40k as the amount that I would have to resize. Well never hit 40k. as a matter of fact, I have already mentioned my 2013 once today. It was at this point that I went on this 110k massive run in 5 weeks! Just imagine if I had resized to half my spread and max bet? OMG!

  12. #52
    Is it them? or is it me? or is it both? I've been betting sports for many years and not just peanuts. Something got in my head a couple of years ago and I couldn't make the bet. Good thing. Because there was a flaw in my logic. Is an average pitcher on a good team better than an average pitcher on a bad team? Point is, it's a wash and that was a correction. So I upped my statistical requirements for a good pitcher and a good team and lowered my betting line standard. Problem solved.

    Back to blackjack: Since my tolerance level greatly exceeds my opponents, there is no need to concern myself about bankroll. IT's not that I don't believe in math, it's that I realize some of it will never balance to a theoretical threshold in my lifetime. So I focus on advantage and control. Tell me the game, the rules, your idiosyncrasies, and tolerances. I will find a way to win while it's still worth my time invested or I will move on.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    My records are about sessions, wins, loss, ties, and interruptions. Playing within their tolerance is key. I do it with a 5 store rotation as opposed to 30. But once you whiz off the wrong person, bad news travels fast? No, a supersonic speed.
    News travels faster in your "town" than mine. Reno has a history of flyering/faxing (that technology is now a bit outdated), but they used to do this among all properties. Vegas doesn't do this. Only sister (chain) properties share this information. MGM isn't sharing with Caesars or Wynn and certainly not Boyd or Stations. MGM pretends Boyd and Stations doesn't exist. And all the "independents are on there own.

    The only area there was a bit of sharing of this nature was downtown, when I first got here. Some properties shared with other non-affiliated properties. But in my decade here, that too has sort of gone away. I think it was the technology that changed. Now it is more about the databases, OSN being the big one in Vegas, Biometrics still a lesser player. Griffin still a non-player, although they keep trying.

    Part of the homework is to know which stores participate in OSN. Most use OSN for the information, but few contribute to that information. In other words most "take" but fewer "give". So you want to identify which casinos are big contributors and play a little more cautiously with them, knowing a backoff there can lead to a couple more.

    And I'll tell you, that 5 store rotation is why I have a real hard time, believing or relating to what you claim. I had a 5 store rotation, actually maybe 7 back in Atlantic City. Pretty hard to sustain that, playing the same places every day, seeing the same faces. I wore out my welcome with such a small rotation and that is when I relocated and changed my game plan.

    IF you are succeeding with a small rotation, I don't know how you are doing so, especially THAT location (sweaty). I have always found it difficult to play any kind of decent money in Reno. Green to black stands out. But maybe you have mastered it and the whole Single deck game, of which I have no real knowledge about.

  14. #54
    For one thing, you don't play black unless it offered. You don't ever play red tables...that's the cheap seats. It's not always what you win - hell, they can see that. It's about what you don't lose. Not everywhere is sweaty. IF so, no one would play. Lots of little things go into it. But I'm good for business. Play nice - be nice. Don't get greedy. Don't get mad. Don't be a smart ass. Leave your entitlement issues at home.
    Problem solved.

    Life on a Ferris Wheel isn't so bad.

    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    News travels faster in your "town" than mine. .
    I've never seen security come up to a table and push a players chips forward to back them off. But I've read that is common in Vegas. There is one section I've read where it's not even worth playing in Vegas due to bad rules and short pen. I think it was The Strip and/or Downtown. I hear outskirts are best. So much for roller blading or walking from casino to casino.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-11-2019 at 12:40 PM.

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I can tell you this much....I believe in the math, so much that I would risk everything I had on the math.

    BUT, the math also say losing 2, 3, 100k BR's can't happen. Mathematically impossible stuff. So while I would be willing to do it because I believe in the math, believing in the math also means that this scenario couldn't happen. So if the impossible happened and I lost say 2 different 100k BR's, I would have to take a serious look, a re-evaluate and try to figure out what the F*** is going on. Was I being cheated? Had I developed holes in my game? Had the game changed in a manner that I had not accounted for? Had I lost all discipline and was somehow chasing losses (this is related to hole's in my game).

    Anyway, I can tell you this, a 29k loss seems like one hell of a lot, if you say you are playing to a 100k BR. But look in context. I was in the second half of a year that I was already almost 130k ahead! Much further ahead than expectation. In that context, while it still burns, it almost seems more like "a correction".
    Okay. Here is the math. 20 sessions a week of your game and your control. Win 60%. A win is $500. A loss is $500. Play 50 weeks a year. The averages and percentages work themselves out. Voila - $100k annually without the volatility.

    But to lose $29k in a week only to recover it all 3 months? Hard for a grown man able to drive a car, practice/play blackjack, and run sims to believe. Control your game or their game controls you.
    Last edited by Moses; 02-11-2019 at 02:23 PM.

  16. #56
    I think what Druff was getting at about VP and BJ, or at least my view on it.... You can’t really grind out long sessions on blackjack. Let’s say a BJ game and a VP game both have an N0 of 100 hours. On VP, you could do 8 hours a day for 13 days and get there. On BJ, you could do 3 hours a day for a month and get there.
    #FreeTyde

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Okay. Here is the math. 20 sessions a week of your game and your control. Win 60%. A win is $500. A loss is $500. Play 50 weeks a year. The averages and percentages work themselves out. Voila - $100k annually without the volatility.

    But to lose $29k in a week only to recover it all 3 months? Hard for a grown man able to drive a car, practice/play blackjack, and run sims to believe. Control your game or their game controls you.
    That is the math? Where are you getting your math....The Rob Singer school of alternative math? I mean seriously 60% win...where did that come from? A win of $500 and losses of $500? Only number you posted that looks close to right to me is about 50 weeks in a year.


    Let me share my math with you. Real blackjack math!

    I play 70,000 to 100,000 rounds of blackjack a year. Lets say 80,000 to make it easy. Since I play almost exclusively one spot, no need to add anything there. so 80,000 rounds. My average bet is a bit complicated because I use different spreads, ramps and top bets, but lets make it real easy and say average bet of $100. It is really somewhat more than that. So 80,000 rounds at average bet of $100 = $8,000,000. I put roughly 8 million dollars into play a year.


    My total advantage is slightly more than 1% because of aggressive wong outs of negative counts and tracking multiple tables, resulting in higher than average number of max bet opportunities, but, let's round off low to 1%.

    $8,000,000 x 1% (advantage) is roughly $80,000. That is my expected win for the year roughly $80,000.


    Ok next is variance. I assume you know the standard formula. Average bet ($100) x 1.15 = $115 x square root of number of rounds played

    Square root of 80,000 rounds is 282.84. 282.84 x 1.15 = $32,526 That is one standard deviation.

    So my annual expected win is $80,000, but anything $32,526 below or above that would be within one standard deviation. Or completely normal. so any result for the year between $47,474 and $112, 526, would be within one standard deviation or very normal. Results should fall in this range 65% of the time. Anything 2 standard deviations above or below would also be considered pretty normal (should occur 95% of the time).

    So my results have been within 1 standard deviation 13 of my 15 years. And the other 2 years were within 2 standard deviations, 1 below and 1 above.

    Now I am not really a math guy. I use the math that other people came up with. But that is the real math of blackjack card counting as it relates to my play. I mean I do things like multiple bet spreads, and max bets that increases variance, and probably changes my numbers from someone playing a more traditional spread, ramp, but, basically, you get the drift.

    So THAT is the math, not this 60% winning sessions? where does that come from? session win rate means nothing. Session win rate can be manipulated if that is important to you. Take martingale for instance. You will end up with many small winning sessions and a few much larger losing ones. Means nothing. So lets stick to the real math.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-11-2019 at 04:54 PM.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by RS__ View Post
    I think what Druff was getting at about VP and BJ, or at least my view on it.... You can’t really grind out long sessions on blackjack. Let’s say a BJ game and a VP game both have an N0 of 100 hours. On VP, you could do 8 hours a day for 13 days and get there. On BJ, you could do 3 hours a day for a month and get there.
    Ok whatever. I play very short sessions with aggressive exit triggers and move around a lot and I still consider myself a grinder type player. Everything is about getting to that total number. I just do it one short spurt after another.

    But I will concede, that many players, especially players older than me, get very frustrated by this style of play. Players of the generation that was able to sit and play for hours at one table. I think there is a real age divide here. Players my age and younger, never were able to sit at one table and play for hours counting cards. This short session style is all most of us have ever known. So we are not nearly as frustrated as some of the older guys.

    I didn't really get that this was were Dan druff was heading, but if it plays into it, I am afraid I can't help him. I don't have access to a time machine. Wish I did.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    Okay. Here is the math. 20 sessions a week of your game and your control. Win 60%. A win is $500. A loss is $500. Play 50 weeks a year. The averages and percentages work themselves out. Voila - $100k annually without the volatility.

    But to lose $29k in a week only to recover it all 3 months? Hard for a grown man able to drive a car, practice/play blackjack, and run sims to believe. Control your game or their game controls you.
    That is the math? Where are you getting your math....The Rob Singer school of alternative math? I mean seriously 60% win...where did that come from? A win of $500 and losses of $500? Only number you posted that looks close to right to me is about 50 weeks in a year.


    Let me share my math with you. Real blackjack math!

    I play 70,000 to 100,000 rounds of blackjack a year. Lets say 80,000 to make it easy. Since I play almost exclusively one spot, no need to add anything there. so 80,000 rounds. My average bet is a bit complicated because I use different spreads, ramps and top bets, but lets make it real easy and say average bet of $100. It is really somewhat more than that. So 80,000 rounds at average bet of $100 = $8,000,000. I put roughly 8 million dollars into play a year.


    My total advantage is slightly more than 1% because of aggressive wong outs of negative counts and tracking multiple tables, resulting in higher than average number of max bet opportunities, but, let's round off low to 1%.

    $8,000,000 v 1% (advantage) is roughly $80,000. That is my expected win for the year roughly $80,000.


    Ok next is variance. I assume you know the standard formula. Average bet ($100) x 1.15 = $115 x square root of number of rounds played

    Square root of 80,000 rounds is 282.84. 282.84 x 1.15 = $32,526 That is one standard deviation.

    So my annual expected win is $80,000, but anything $32,526 below or above that would be within one standard deviation. Or completely normal. so any result for the year between $47,474 and $112, 526, would be within one standard deviation or very normal. Results should fall in this range 65% of the time. Anything 2 standard deviations above or below would also be considered pretty normal (should occur 95% of the time).

    So my results have been within 1 standard deviation 13 of my 15 years. And the other 2 years were within 2 standard deviations, 1 below and 1 above.

    Now I am not really a math guy. I use the math that other people came up with. But that is the real math of blackjack card counting as it relates to my play. I mean I do things like multiple bet spreads, and max bets that increases variance, and probably changes my numbers from someone playing a more traditional spread, ramp, but, basically, you get the drift.

    So THAT is the math, not this 60% winning sessions? where does that come from? session win rate means nothing. Session win rate can be manipulated if that is important to you. Take martingale for instance. You will end up with many small winning sessions and a few much larger losing ones. Means nothing. So lets stick to the real math.
    You are really over thinking it. 20 sessions 60% wins. is 12-8. or $2,000 a week. Spread over 5 casinos is $400 a week on average. i dont know what you mean by real math. But im not the one complaining about $29k losses in a week. Volatility might be breaking even for 3 weeks. But losing all 20 sessions is still only $10k. never happened. never close. You just played even for 5 months. BeCause you lost control for one weak.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by Moses View Post
    You are really over thinking it. 20 sessions 60% wins. is 12-8. or $2,000 a week. Spread over 5 casinos is $400 a week on average. i dont know what you mean by real math. But im not the one complaining about $29k losses in a week. Volatility might be breaking even for 3 weeks. But losing all 20 sessions is still only $10k. never happened. never close. You just played even for 5 months. BeCause you lost control for one weak.
    Ok, I tried, that's all I can do. You are way too far down voodoo lane for me to reason with.

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