Originally Posted by BoSox View Post
If anyone actually reads Moses posts when he speaks about blackjack, they would realize what he was saying between the lines.....

….Of course all of that is my guess, personally I think he gets more action in the sports book.
Ok BoSox, this post was bizarre to me. I decided not to quote the whole thing as you can see. BUt you went into a lot about how Moses plays and what levels and why and stuff. I was about to respond "how the F would you know all that" when I got to the line "of course all that is my guess". So you get away with that I guess. Snuck out the back door. But, I am going to say that is one hell of a lot of speculating on your part.

Now back to the variance thing. For a card counter variance, and I am talking about big swings and extended swings that are going to occur when you hit a period where you win or lose an abnormally high number of your max or larger wagers. That is when you are going to have your bigger swings in both directions. So a guy playing single deck and spreading maybe 1-4 is not going to have anywhere near the same swings or variance as a guy playing multideck shoe games spreading 1-16, or 1-24 spread.

So even if we were playing the same betting level, which I am certain we are not, Moses comparing his variance to mine is lunacy.

So like I said, I am rather certain, we are not talking anywhere near the same betting levels either, so let's look at that. Say a guy is playing red chip level, with that 1-4 spread we just mentioned for single deck. So you are talking max bet of $20. This would be right in line with Reno tolerance levels. So this guy comparing his losing days of $300, $400. Ahhhh that's 20 max bets, right?

Now lets look at 20 max bets of my play, max bet anywhere from $400 to $800, but let's go with $500 as an average. I lose 20 max bets, I have a 10k loss day. I experience 2 of those days like I did the week in question that Moses is making a big deal about (very rare BTW) and you can see where a 29k losing week comes from (and hopefully doesn't come again for a long time).

It is just a case of a guy playing low limit comparing his results to a player playing much limits. His $400 daily loss is very equivalent to my $10,000 daily loss. Just so happens the week in question, I experienced 2 of those 10k losses. (and that is the only time that has ever happened)

But really, it wasn't about my results or his results anyway. That was just the thing used to attack me. What it really did as far as I am concerned is prove he doesn't understand the basic mathematics of this game. Something I suspected for a long time, but had no interest is calling out until he challenged the variance which while unusual, is quite easily within the math.

Ok, I am completely done with Moses Now. Next time I mention Moses I will be talking about the bible and That is not really my thing....I don't talk about that much.