Dan Druff's MLB picks 2019

[Dan Druff]

Pretty hot recently.

9-2 since 4/25, up 8.69 units.

[Dan Druff]

Let's see if I can keep the hot streak going.

Someone I know once said that you're a sportsbetting fish if you get a play after all the sharps have bet it down.

Sadly, I was taking a nap today and literally was asleep at the switch regarding the Cleveland/Miami game.

The Miami side is loved by sharps today, and the books keep bringing the line down (in reverse movement fashion) in order to encourage action on Cleveland. Still, I actually believe Miami is the favorite to win here, so I'll take them at a small dog, and wish I bet them earlier. Kluber's struggles are the main reason for the action on the Marlins.

The Blue Jays have the revitalized Marcus Stroman going against the Angels, who has been spectacular this season. The Angels appear to have a reliever starting the game in Luke Bard, but in reality, he's just an "opener", and the real bulk of the innings will go to Felix Pena. This "opener" crap needs to be watched carefully from a betting standpoint, as you always need to know the pitcher planned to get the bulk of the work. Pena has pitched well this season, but not as well as Stroman, and I generally like the Blue Jays here.


Miami (C. Smith) +116 vs. Cleveland (Kluber)
Toronto (Stroman) -103 at Angels (Bard)

[Dan Druff]

Nice to finally hit an NBA playoff game, and a +160 dog at that.

After initially deciding that I didn't care for any of the offerings today (in either sport), I decided to go with the Blue Jays once again in tonight's late game.

This is one of those bets where I'm doing it because the line has moved high enough to where I feel there's value.

Consider:

- Aaron Sanchez has pitched well, though you're probably getting 6 innings out of him, max

- Toronto has scored 4-7 runs in 5 of the past 7 games, and 3+ runs in 6 of the past 7

- Tyler Skaggs, while having a good season so far, has never finished with an ERA below 4

- Aside from Trout, the Angels simply aren't very good

- The line is +156


The downsides:

- Toronto hasn't looked very good the last 2 games

- Sanchez walks a lot of people, and is fortunate to have an ERA of just 2.32

- The sharps aren't on this one

- There's reverse line movement -- but not the way we want. The books are trying to get action on the Jays, and I'm giving it to them! (I really avoid these spots, yet this is the second time I'm doing it this week! The other time I did win.)


Anyway...

Toronto (Aa. Sanchez) +156 at Anaheim (Skaggs)

If you can get +150 or better, fire on it if you dare.

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday. Toronto sucks.

Today:
Oakland (Brett Anderson) at Pittsburgh (Musgrove) - Over 8 +100
Settle (Kikuchi) at Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 8.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Easy wins for both yesterday, as I'm now on a 12-4 run.

Three more today:

St. Louis (Wacha) +102 at Cubs (F. Yu Darvish)
Atlanta (Soroka) at Miami (T. Richards) - Under 7.5 -110
Oakland (Bassitt) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) - Under 8 -110

[Dan Druff]

Lost all 3 on Saturday.

Today:

Mets (Syndergaard) at San Diego (Quantrill) - Over 7 -120 (7.5 -105 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Won easily last night.

Today:

Detroit (Boyd) -112 vs. Angels (Skaggs)

Starts at 4:10pm PDT

[Dan Druff]

Cincinnati (S. Gray) -101 at Oakland (Brett Anderson)

Homecoming for Sonny Gray, who pitched most of his career in Oakland.

Brett Anderson is a fade for this most part this season. He pitched well last time out because his team started off blowing out the opponent.

The mighty Khris Davis is questionable for the A's. He was placed in the lineup last night, then scratched. He might very well be scratched again. The A's aren't saying.

This game doesn't start until after 7pm PT, so if you want to wait for the announcement on Davis, you can, but you might get a worse line if he's scratched.

[Dan Druff]

Won Detroit super easily on Wed, but split the day when Cincy blew a lead and fell in 13 innings.

Today:

KC (Bailey) +133 vs. Philadelphia (Arrieta)
Atlanta (Teheran) +130 at Arizona (Greinke)

FYI sharps love the KC pick, they are tepid on the Atlanta pick.

[Dan Druff]

Won them both, though Atlanta was close.

Through 4/30:
Underdogs: 10-12 (+2.46)
Totals: 7-8-1 (-1.76)
Favorites: 5-2 (+2.60)
Total through 4/30: 22-22-1, +3.30 units


5/1:
Miami (C. Smith) +116 vs. Cleveland (Kluber) - WON +1.16
Toronto (Stroman) -103 at Angels (Bard) - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/1: 1-1, +0.16

5/2:
Toronto (Aa. Sanchez) +156 at Anaheim (Skaggs) - LOST -1

5/3:
Oakland (Brett Anderson) at Pittsburgh (Musgrove) - Over 8 +100 - WON +1
Settle (Kikuchi) at Cleveland (Bieber) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.91
TOTAL 5/3: 2-0, +1.91

5/4:
St. Louis (Wacha) +102 at Cubs (F. Yu Darvish) - LOST -1
Atlanta (Soroka) at Miami (T. Richards) - Under 7.5 -110 - LOST -1
Oakland (Bassitt) at Pittsburgh (T. Williams) - Under 8 -110 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/4: 0-3, -3.00

5/7:
Mets (Syndergaard) at San Diego (Quantrill) - Over 7 -120 - WON +0.83

5/8:
Detroit (Boyd) -112 vs. Angels (Skaggs) - WON +0.89
Cincinnati (S. Gray) -101 at Oakland (Brett Anderson) - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/8: 1-1, -0.11

5/10:
KC (Bailey) +133 vs. Philadelphia (Arrieta) - WON +1.33
Atlanta (Teheran) +130 at Arizona (Greinke) - WON +1.30
TOTAL 5/10: 2-0, +2.63

TOTALS 5/1-5/10:
Underdogs: 3-2 (+1.79)
Totals: 3-2 (+0.74)
Favorites: 1-2 (-1.11)
TOTAL: 7-6 (+1.42)

Season Totals:
Underdogs: 13-14 (+4.25)
Totals: 10-10-1 (-1.02)
Favorites: 6-4 (+1.49)

GGRAND TOTAL: 29-28-1, +4.72 units

[Dan Druff]

Last minute:

White Sox (Nova) +145 at Toronto (Stroman)

[Dan Druff]

Going with one pick starting shortly and another a few hours away.

Shortly:

Atlanta (Fried) -118 at Arizona (Godley) - Pick is only against Godley, who has looked horrendous this season. Fried has great numbers, but he did get struck on the hand during last game, and at one point was considered questionable.

4pm PT:
Milwaukee (Chacin) +113 at Cubs (Lester)

[Dan Druff]

Brewers killed my MLB winning streak by blowing a million scoring chances. Then, down just 2-1, the awful Houser was put in relief, despite the availability of tons of great arms in their pen. WTF?

Anyway, just one pick today. Keeping on the Boyd train, and we got him at home with a nice price

Detroit (Boyd) +149 vs. Houston (Peacock)

Boyd has a 2.86 ERA, 0.934 WHIP, and 63/11 K/BB ratio. He also hasn't allowed more than 3 ER in any start (out of 8 so far), and allowed 2 or fewer 5 out of 8 times, usually going 6+ innings.

[Dan Druff]

Detroit pick yesterday went nowhere.

Here are three today, one starting in about 90 minutes (the White Sox), and the others starting later today.

Cleveland (Carrasco) at White Sox (Banuelos) - Under 8 -110
Washington (Hellickson) +134 vs. Mets (Syndergaard)
Miami (Caleb Smith) +120 vs. Tampa Bay (Morton)

Washington will probably see a worse line later today, so bet it early.

[Dan Druff]

Just bet this:

Reds/Cubs Under 9 -110

Game started just now so you would have to bet it live.

More picks coming shortly.

[Dan Druff]

Here's something you have time to bet:

Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) +107 vs. Texas (Minor)
Kansas City (Jorge Lopez) vs. Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -115

Starts at 5:10 PDT.

You might be tempted to fire on Texas instead as Minor is the much better pitcher, and Lopez got bombed last time out.

The public is betting Texas heavy and yet the line is going the other way.

Trapper John MD, folks.

[Dan Druff]

Decided to do something I usually don't: A parlay on the KC game.

This is because the most likely scenario of KC winning is both pitchers pitching fairly well, but KC being a little bit better.

I am risking losing out on the under payout if Lopez gets bombed, Minor is dominant, and the score finishes something like 8-0.

However, this is the type of spot to parlay, as they are somewhat related.

It's not the same as a correlated parlay, a blatant advantage play which most books will ban you for doing. An example of a correlated parlay is parlaying the 1st half under and the full game under (of the same game) in the NBA. A correlated parlay is one where winning the first bet will greatly increase the chance of winning the second.

[Dan Druff]

Some totals bets on the early games, both starting very shortly:

Oakland (Bassitt) at Detroit (Turnbull) Under 8.5 -115 - Both pitchers have done well this year, wind blowing in, sharps like this one

Texas (Lynn) at KC (Bailey) Over 10.5 -120 - Heavy wind blowing out all game, neither pitcher is good

[Dan Druff]

Split them yesterday, winning KC easily.

Starting now:

Cubs/Nationals - Over 8 -115
Tampa (Stanek) -102 at Yankees (Sabathia)

[Dan Druff]

Also now:

Detroit (Norris) +180 vs. Oakland (Montas)