Originally Posted by
Bob21
As far as Moses’s basketball analogy with blackjack, I can tell you missed it. You think the guy took the jump shot at the 7 minute make. He didn’t. He passed it up for a better shot at the 6 min mark and made the other team play defense longer, thus, reducing variance.
Moses also explicitly states he’s “only speaking to the single deck straight up games.” It my understanding you don’t play those games. So there. That’s probably why you missed the points Moses was making about variance.
Bob21, you can NOT reduce variance from the blackjack card counting game by any significant measure. There are thing a player can do that will help a tiny bit, but nothing significant. The facts are that blackjack card counting gains the player the very tiniest of edges. Even at the high, max bet counts the player is only playing with a very slim edge. That means he is going to lose almost as many max bet opportunities as he wins. Actually even at those high counts the card counter will lose more hands than he wins. The edge comes from slightly more blackjacks at the 3-2 payout.
And anytime a player is going to lose just as many or more of his largest bets, there is going to be huge variance, because there will be little streaks that these losses occur in bunches. These are the facts of the game as it relates to card counting. No advanced count, column count or other is going to change that, No stop limits will change that. No one, not the greatest math minds and certainly not the likes of Moses can change that. Anyone that doesn't understand the variance should not be attempting to card count. PERIOD!
I don't play single deck. The reason is it is unplayable. I have been to Reno. I have friends that play Reno more than I do. Reno is almost unplayable at the green chip and higher level except for a very short time, during crowded weekends. If a regular tries to play green to black for more than a day or two, he is done in Reno...ALL of Reno. Reno is too small of a rotation to play as any kind of home base. Best you can do is roll into town for a couple days, maybe twice a year.
As a matter of fact, similarly to how double deck is a counter trap in Vegas, and serious players avoid double deck or play very sparingly, Single deck is the counter trap in Reno. If a player is going to attempt to play any serious money in Reno he has to avoid the single deck. These are the facts. And Moses can't change them by his wishing.
If a player really wants to play blackjack with any kind of significantly less variance, he needs to find much larger edges than card counting.
So spare us with you bullshit that you have no clue about. And spare us the nonsense that you are an aspiring card counter. Everything you say and do proves you are not. If you were you would learn the mathematics of the game and ground yourself in the reality of the game and stop the hero worship of someone that is full of bullshit. Anyone new player who is serious about card counting aligns himself with real players who play the game and are successful and soaks up everything they have to say. That's what I did and those relationships continue to be beneficial today. Because that is how you really learn from experiences shared from real players, not from books, not from boot camps...real players sharing their experiences and most tend to be somewhat tight lipped.
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