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Thread: Blackjack variance by the numbers

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    As far as Moses’s basketball analogy with blackjack, I can tell you missed it. You think the guy took the jump shot at the 7 minute make. He didn’t. He passed it up for a better shot at the 6 min mark and made the other team play defense longer, thus, reducing variance.

    Moses also explicitly states he’s “only speaking to the single deck straight up games.” It my understanding you don’t play those games. So there. That’s probably why you missed the points Moses was making about variance.
    Bob21, you can NOT reduce variance from the blackjack card counting game by any significant measure. There are thing a player can do that will help a tiny bit, but nothing significant. The facts are that blackjack card counting gains the player the very tiniest of edges. Even at the high, max bet counts the player is only playing with a very slim edge. That means he is going to lose almost as many max bet opportunities as he wins. Actually even at those high counts the card counter will lose more hands than he wins. The edge comes from slightly more blackjacks at the 3-2 payout.

    And anytime a player is going to lose just as many or more of his largest bets, there is going to be huge variance, because there will be little streaks that these losses occur in bunches. These are the facts of the game as it relates to card counting. No advanced count, column count or other is going to change that, No stop limits will change that. No one, not the greatest math minds and certainly not the likes of Moses can change that. Anyone that doesn't understand the variance should not be attempting to card count. PERIOD!

    I don't play single deck. The reason is it is unplayable. I have been to Reno. I have friends that play Reno more than I do. Reno is almost unplayable at the green chip and higher level except for a very short time, during crowded weekends. If a regular tries to play green to black for more than a day or two, he is done in Reno...ALL of Reno. Reno is too small of a rotation to play as any kind of home base. Best you can do is roll into town for a couple days, maybe twice a year.

    As a matter of fact, similarly to how double deck is a counter trap in Vegas, and serious players avoid double deck or play very sparingly, Single deck is the counter trap in Reno. If a player is going to attempt to play any serious money in Reno he has to avoid the single deck. These are the facts. And Moses can't change them by his wishing.

    If a player really wants to play blackjack with any kind of significantly less variance, he needs to find much larger edges than card counting.

    So spare us with you bullshit that you have no clue about. And spare us the nonsense that you are an aspiring card counter. Everything you say and do proves you are not. If you were you would learn the mathematics of the game and ground yourself in the reality of the game and stop the hero worship of someone that is full of bullshit. Anyone new player who is serious about card counting aligns himself with real players who play the game and are successful and soaks up everything they have to say. That's what I did and those relationships continue to be beneficial today. Because that is how you really learn from experiences shared from real players, not from books, not from boot camps...real players sharing their experiences and most tend to be somewhat tight lipped.
    Blah. Blah. Blah. Bullshit Bullshit Bullshit.
    UCFX, you just wrote in another thread:

    "I don't actually play much blackjack. But I would assume one would have to actually play in order to experience variance."


    Why are you saying Blah. Blah. Blah. Bullshit Bullshit Bullshit. on a subject that you know little about? Oh I get it you are really Moses.

  2. #42
    Oh yes. Keystone. KJs guy friend. Moses told me about you. What you are going to do? Have your Amsterdam puppet come kick my ass too? Friggin ploppy. You don't know shit. Why are you posting in this thread? You don't know shit about blackjack or basketball? Still trying "unsuccessfully" to get in KJs pants I see. I know, I know, you'll come back with a stupid circle jerk slur. You're so predictable. If I want any lip off you, I will scrap it off my zipper. IF you think you want some of me? I'll show you my nuts and then beat you senseless with my dick. As if that is even possible. You already dumb as a fuckin wood pole.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Oh yes. Keystone. KJs guy friend. Moses told me about you. What you are going to do? Have your Amsterdam puppet come kick my ass too? Friggin ploppy. You don't know shit. Why are you posting in this thread? You don't know shit about blackjack or basketball? Still trying "unsuccessfully" to get in KJs pants I see. I know, I know, you'll come back with a stupid circle jerk slur. You're so predictable. If I want any lip off you, I will scrap it off my zipper. IF you think you want some of me? I'll show you my nuts and then beat you senseless with my dick. As if that is even possible. You already dumb as a fuckin wood pole.
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  4. #44
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post

    UCFX, you just wrote in another thread:

    "I don't actually play much blackjack. But I would assume one would have to actually play in order to experience variance."


    Why are you saying Blah. Blah. Blah. Bullshit Bullshit Bullshit. on a subject that you know little about? Oh I get it you are really Moses.
    Great job detective dick wad. I play blackjack. Others in our group do not. I've had many conversation with Moses about blackjack and basketball. It's not all that difficult for someone with half a brain. Btw, Bob. I'm sure the U can't fix stupid phase will go on for most of the day as these friggin losers got nothing else better to do than to try to catch Moses in lie that Dan doesn't care about in the first place. lol What a bunch of dipshits!

    I look forward to meeting you on your trip. However, is lady friend is liable to shove a mop straight up your travel companions hind parts. Might want to leave him at home.

    Anymore questions detective dumbass?

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Bob21, I said that the fewer the number of possessions, the more variance in the game outcome. How could you possibly think I said anything but that? I said it continually during the post. What the hell?
    Of course, in blackjack, the more they reduce pen the more your game is limited. In basketball, you take the easy shot and wear down the defense. High school ball. no shot clock. no 3 point line.

    In blackjack, you take what the defense gives you. It's 6 rounds 7 at best. So you'd better take quality shots. The best way to get and stay ahead is not to fall to far behind in the first place. Moses explain this already at Zen Zone. Why? Casino Tolerance. Norm's products will allow you to design your game to compete within tolerance. Streamlined efficiency. But most are too lazy to do the work necessary to compete at the highest level. They'd rather sit around some forum to boast and brag about the wins and bitch about the loss or fear of losing.

    C'mon redietz, you're a professional handicapper. According to Moses, not one of those dime a dozen ones like we have around here. Do I really I need to tell you about research? No, I doubt it. I mean shit, you know when a line of -6 get reversed and you accidentally get +6, that's a bargain 9 times out of 10. Same thing in blackjack. You seek advantages, not thresholds. My point is, you'd go nuts listening to some of the handicapping shit here.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Two hearts attacks and your in your mid 30s? I will still be a fucker, fighter, and wild horse rider while your doing the horizontal flop in and turn a shade of grey in some queer brothel.
    A complete lie. I haven't had any heart attacks. I had a bad valve that needed to be replaced. I am healthy and active. Ran a half marathon last fall. Skied several times over the winter, have a surfing trip to Cali coming up.

    I mean really why do you people have to lie about such things?

    And btw, suppose I had a heart attack? You need that to make your point or argument? What the fuck kind of person are you Moses? Never mind. You repeatedly show just what kind of person you are.

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post

    Redietz, I’ve read your post a couple times now and you seem to be contradicting yourself. The fewer the number of possessions, or the shorter the game, the more variance, if we look at variance as the outcome of the game. Basically, the fewer possessions, the more likely the inferior team is to win.

    That’s why before the shot clock, in the NCAA tournament the inferior teams would usually stall each half and try to get the games down to a couple possessions. It usually didn’t work but it gave them a chance. I remember some games back then in the 20s. And it resulted in incredibly boring games.

    I think the bigger reason the NCAA put in the shot clock is to get away from these very boring games. They obviously want to sell a product, and a basketball game with mostly stalling isn’t fun to watch. Who wants to see one team stall the whole half? Also, whenever a team got the lead, they’d go into the stall, which wasn’t fun to watch. Even good teams did this. I’m sure you remember North Carlina’s four corner stall offense.

    Yes, the shot clock helps the better teams, but it also makes the game more enjoyable to watch. Looking back on that era, I’m surprised they didn’t implement the shot clock sooner.

    Other than these two points, I pretty much agree with the rest of your post.
    Bob21, I said that the fewer the number of possessions, the more variance in the game outcome. How could you possibly think I said anything but that? I said it continually during the post. What the hell?
    Okay you’re right and I’m wrong on this. The way you worded your sentences was confusing. But now going back through your post very carefully I see how you stated it is correct. My bad. We’re on the same page on this one.

    Obviously, the fewer the number of possessions, the more the variance in the outcome of the game.

    I still think the NCAA mostly put in the shot clock to make the games more enjoyable to watch.
    That's why I wrote, "This is why, in part...." The "in part" means this is one reason. Not necessarily the most important, but a significant reason. The shot clock prevented games from being history once one team had a 14 or 15 point lead. So it kept the outcome in doubt, which helped massage television ratings. That would be the primary reason, in my mind. Close behind would be the need to ass-kiss the established ratings getters, the brand names like UNC or Duke, because those brand names are necessary to ratings, also.

    Instead of writing "This is why, in part," I should have written "This is one reason." That would have been superior writing, but it is a junk forum, so I usually post without editing.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Two hearts attacks and your in your mid 30s? I will still be a fucker, fighter, and wild horse rider while your doing the horizontal flop in and turn a shade of grey in some queer brothel.
    A complete lie. I haven't had any heart attacks. I had a bad valve that needed to be replaced. I am healthy and active. Ran a half marathon last fall. Skied several times over the winter, have a surfing trip to Cali coming up.

    I mean really why do you people have to lie about such things?

    And btw, suppose I had a heart attack? You need that to make your point or argument? What the fuck kind of person are you Moses? Never mind. You repeatedly show just what kind of person you are.
    You come up with so much bullshit we never know, or care, wtf your talking about. From fake deaths, to leaving, staying, to blowing your new boyfriend. Steve was reading that one out loud. He had to stop because we were laughing so hard. But it embarrassed him and he is a senior level cocks man. A waitress can't walk by without him making some comment. Embarrassing Steve ain't easy. You will meet him also Bob and you'll see what I mean.

    Told you dipshit. I'm not Moses. I'm Lou. I meaner than fucking Moses by a long shot. My complaint with Moses is he's too nice of a guy. You talk about lunatics and crazies? You don't know shit, so shut the fuck up, and I will tell you from someone who has been here over 30 years. If word gets out you're fair game? You are fair game. That's how it works in the real world Keystone. If you're vulnerable, if you're weak, you're a target. Most are targets and don't even know it.

    So you want to play a war of words with me? You're in the ring with the wrong mother fucker...mother fucker.
    Last edited by UCFX; 04-17-2019 at 01:26 PM.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Two hearts attacks and your in your mid 30s? I will still be a fucker, fighter, and wild horse rider while your doing the horizontal flop in and turn a shade of grey in some queer brothel.
    A complete lie. I haven't had any heart attacks. I had a bad valve that needed to be replaced. I am healthy and active. Ran a half marathon last fall. Skied several times over the winter, have a surfing trip to Cali coming up.

    I mean really why do you people have to lie about such things?

    And btw, suppose I had a heart attack? You need that to make your point or argument? What the fuck kind of person are you Moses? Never mind. You repeatedly show just what kind of person you are.
    I wouldn't be blaming him for all this kew. You're the idiot who just had to present the story about how you have infected blood, a defective heart, and crossed wires upstairs to go along with your "Hey everybody look at me!--I'm a bona fide BJ pro who has been outsmarting casino managers better than anyone else on earth for more than 15 years now!!" load of internet crap.

    You're the world's biggest pussy, that's for sure. You claim whatever you want and whatever makes you "feel good" under anonymity, and whenever anybody questions you or calls your bluff, you jump up and down crying foul like a whiny-ass baby.

    You made your bed, your "partner" you made up escaped from you. Now keep tossing and turning in it. And yes, I DO know who you are, where you now live, and why you had to leave the old house you lived in....and I know you have a part time job. You're such a phoney.

  10. #50
    Wait?! You are Lou now!

    Didn't you tell us you were Mises's girlfriend or wife?

    Now you are Lou?

  11. #51
    Not a word you said is true Singer. Not a single word. I don't know who you are looking up but it's not me. Lol.

  12. #52
    Just gets weirder and weirder. Lol

  13. #53
    So what? Are you going to leave again? Hello Rob. No Keystone we are not ganging up on poor poor KJ. Just sick of the bullshit, the bragging, and the bitching is all. You must be in one helluva frame of mind to play blackjack today. Must be Variance.

  14. #54
    "Singer" likes to take wild stabs at people, kind of like fortune tellers trying to do a cold reading. The only thing is, "Singer" is really, truly bad at it. I mean, like terrible. Not close. About five light years off course, usually. He said I had a sexual relationship with a guy who's like the straightest, pinnacle-of-business person ever with a classic nuclear family and top security clearances. It was a sad effort.

    I don't know kewlJ from Adam. I don't know, as I've said in the past, whether he's a short order cook or Heidi Fleiss's assistant. But I mean, 'c'mon, "Singer" is so anti-kewlJ. Does anybody really believe if "Singer" knew who kewlJ was, "Singer" wouldn't just spill the beans immediately and lay out everything he knew and blow kewlJ's blackjack career out of the water if he could? I mean, what would Singer's motive be for keeping the "secrets of kewlJ" under wraps for years? Makes zero sense, unless you believe "Singer" has some grand plan. Yeah, right.

    And the whole nonsense about me soliciting "Singer?" C'mon, man, get real. Anybody on these forums could, at any time under any name, try to hire me. Anybody could report on me "soliciting them." But zero confirmations after eight years and lots of anti-APers. And "Singer" just couldn't or didn't hang onto whatever phone number or text message or email or PM did the soliciting. Ever.

    C'mon, man. Do better. Put some of that 200K from the jackpot to use and hire a couple of decent PIs and get some stuff right, for once. You can do it!

  15. #55
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post

    UCFX, you just wrote in another thread:

    "I don't actually play much blackjack. But I would assume one would have to actually play in order to experience variance."


    Why are you saying Blah. Blah. Blah. Bullshit Bullshit Bullshit. on a subject that you know little about? Oh I get it you are really Moses.
    Great job detective dick wad. I play blackjack. Others in our group do not. I've had many conversation with Moses about blackjack and basketball. It's not all that difficult for someone with half a brain. Btw, Bob. I'm sure the U can't fix stupid phase will go on for most of the day as these friggin losers got nothing else better to do than to try to catch Moses in lie that Dan doesn't care about in the first place. lol What a bunch of dipshits!

    I look forward to meeting you on your trip. However, is lady friend is liable to shove a mop straight up your travel companions hind parts. Might want to leave him at home.

    Anymore questions detective dumbass?
    As a matter of fact I do have another question as in inquiring minds would like too know this one. We know that you have split personalities and that you also work as some sort of hospice representive a commendable position for a normal type of person. When you are with your boyfriend in a intimate moment and you are about to have an orgasm are you looking at your boyfriend, or are you thinking about the 93 year old man who you saw closing his eyes for the last time that afternoon?

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by BoSox View Post

    As a matter of fact I do have another question as in inquiring minds would like too know this one. We know that you have split personalities and that you also work as some sort of hospice representive a commendable position for a normal type of person. When you are with your boyfriend in a intimate moment and you are about to have an orgasm are you looking at your boyfriend, or are you thinking about the 93 year old man who you saw closing his eyes for the last time that afternoon?

    Oh look Steve a joke by For Um Dumbass Detective. FUDD. Elmer, I can't even follow what the flip you're saying. The sign said, No Dogs Allowed, so blind assed Bosox walked into a bar, then a table, then the wrong restroom, and the out the back door sayin "where the hell is my dog"? Lou doesn't have a boyfriend. What are you whacking off or something?

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Bob21 View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    Bob21, I said that the fewer the number of possessions, the more variance in the game outcome. How could you possibly think I said anything but that? I said it continually during the post. What the hell?
    Okay you’re right and I’m wrong on this. The way you worded your sentences was confusing. But now going back through your post very carefully I see how you stated it is correct. My bad. We’re on the same page on this one.

    Obviously, the fewer the number of possessions, the more the variance in the outcome of the game.

    I still think the NCAA mostly put in the shot clock to make the games more enjoyable to watch.
    That's why I wrote, "This is why, in part...." The "in part" means this is one reason. Not necessarily the most important, but a significant reason. The shot clock prevented games from being history once one team had a 14 or 15 point lead. So it kept the outcome in doubt, which helped massage television ratings. That would be the primary reason, in my mind. Close behind would be the need to ass-kiss the established ratings getters, the brand names like UNC or Duke, because those brand names are necessary to ratings, also.

    Instead of writing "This is why, in part," I should have written "This is one reason." That would have been superior writing, but it is a junk forum, so I usually post without editing.
    Agreed! We’re on the same page. I hate when someone tries to catch me on some minor spelling, grammar or sentence structure error so I don’t want to do the same thing to you. My bad.

    And going back through your original post on this thread again, I see where you’re going with less possessions increases variance, in terms of the outcome of the game.

    But I also kind of get where Moses was going with his basketball analogy. His point was less possessions, or a better thought out possession, helps defeat a stronger foe. And that’s definitely true.

    And blackjack aside, I agree it’s best to take the layup at 6 mins, rather than the jump shot at 7 mins. This is the point I think Kj missed. Lol

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by UCFX View Post
    Two hearts attacks and your in your mid 30s? I will still be a fucker, fighter, and wild horse rider while your doing the horizontal flop in and turn a shade of grey in some queer brothel.
    A complete lie. I haven't had any heart attacks. I had a bad valve that needed to be replaced. I am healthy and active. Ran a half marathon last fall. Skied several times over the winter, have a surfing trip to Cali coming up.

    I mean really why do you people have to lie about such things?

    And btw, suppose I had a heart attack? You need that to make your point or argument? What the fuck kind of person are you Moses? Never mind. You repeatedly show just what kind of person you are.
    I wouldn't be blaming him for all this kew. You're the idiot who just had to present the story about how you have infected blood, a defective heart, and crossed wires upstairs to go along with your "Hey everybody look at me!--I'm a bona fide BJ pro who has been outsmarting casino managers better than anyone else on earth for more than 15 years now!!" load of internet crap.

    You're the world's biggest pussy, that's for sure. You claim whatever you want and whatever makes you "feel good" under anonymity, and whenever anybody questions you or calls your bluff, you jump up and down crying foul like a whiny-ass baby.

    You made your bed, your "partner" you made up escaped from you. Now keep tossing and turning in it. And yes, I DO know who you are, where you now live, and why you had to leave the old house you lived in....and I know you have a part time job. You're such a phoney.
    Robocchio, why don't you regale us with stories of how you outsmarted casino managers for ten years and made a million bucks. How were you able to get away with it while KJ couldn't have possibly gotten away with it?
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Robocchio, why don't you regale us with stories of how you outsmarted casino managers for ten years and made a million bucks. How were you able to get away with it while KJ couldn't have possibly gotten away with it?
    Outsmarted casino managers? I want to hear more of how he outsmarted the mathematics. I want to hear more about stop limits and how stopping today somehow changes your future results whenever you play again? I want to hear about progression betting and how chasing previous losses guarantees future winnings and other such voodoo concepts such as "being due".

    What exactly and I mean exactly is it that one must due to win against the mathematics of the game. Is there some sort of magical incantation that needs be said, or other voodoo ritual. Is it some special combination of rabbits feet and lucky charms that allows one special person to overcome the mathematics involved? And do these tricks also allow you to defy gravity?

    Because THAT is where we are with Singer and have been for quite some time. His claims are mathematically impossible.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Robocchio, why don't you regale us with stories of how you outsmarted casino managers for ten years and made a million bucks. How were you able to get away with it while KJ couldn't have possibly gotten away with it?
    Outsmarted casino managers? I want to hear more of how he outsmarted the mathematics. I want to hear more about stop limits and how stopping today somehow changes your future results whenever you play again? I want to hear about progression betting and how chasing previous losses guarantees future winnings and other such voodoo concepts such as "being due".

    What exactly and I mean exactly is it that one must due to win against the mathematics of the game. Is there some sort of magical incantation that needs be said, or other voodoo ritual. Is it some special combination of rabbits feet and lucky charms that allows one special person to overcome the mathematics involved? And do these tricks also allow you to defy gravity?

    Because THAT is where we are with Singer and have been for quite some time. His claims are mathematically impossible.
    By definition, he has paranormal abilities. That's why I tried to convince him to take a stab at the Randi Million Dollar Challenge while it was available.

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