Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
Special plays that deviate from optimal play while giving up very little in game EV, are not made to outsmart the machines, bend the math books, or for any other confusing purposes. They simply afford the player a better chance at experiencing good luck and/or a hand that will send a goal-oriented person home. We all know there can be no winning without good luck. These plays bump those odds up.

Yes there are times that keeping the optimal hand will result in a better win than playing out the special play. There are also the infrequent times making the special play will result in a very large winner. Some of these plays are only used on higher limits and in the more volatile games. If anyone here were to completely understand all aspects of how and when they are all used, you'd understand that which you so quickly and blindly dismiss: that there is a large and positive gap in overall winning using special plays in your strategy vs.simple expert-only play.

Axel asks me the age-old question about why playing many short term sessions does not add up to the "long term". In order to comprehend the answer one must first clear their minds about how they play and try to put themselves into the shoes of a Singer-style player.

Technically, anyone could say anything they do is "long-term" unless it's one and done. A baseball player hits for certain averages each distinct year, and his success is largely measured by that metric. His "overall" lifetime avg. really doesn't earn him much, outside at a shot at the HoF. A postal worker makes a yearly salary and every year that's what of utmost importance to him or her. But when you look at the sum of all those years when it's over, the long-term grand total means next to nothing.

In my vp play, I go into a weekly session with a specific win goal so I can quit and go home until I decide to return and try again. When that win is attained, it's almost always in the middle of a very complex increasing and decreasing denominational and volatility point of impact. And at that time everything for that session comes to an abrupt end. So what happens when I return to play another session? Correct. I start at the lowest denomination on the game with the least volatility, with special plays being used at a higher rate as I go up in denomination. It is, in actual effect, a completely new and different session, with winning results coming right away, in 20 minutes, an hour, 5 hours or even more.

Compare this with your typical advantage player, who plays according to the clock, the bladder or bowels, the wife, or Mr. Sandman. They play right on thru large wins because they're believing in that the grind-it-out gods will eventually bestow tiny riches upon them if they play more than AOC served short-shot drinks to whites.

It's obvious an AP is just gonna put on his non-thinking cap and keep on repeating their trusty old cliche': +EV means you win, and -EV means you lose. And that couldn't be further from the mathematical truth. These special plays were not designed to hammer the math. They are simply used to increase the possibilities of hitting a session ending winner. Thru goodluck....which took skill to figure out.
If your bullshit worked you could make a million dollars a month with it. No excuses, dickweed. If it really works then you are an underachiever to the 10th power.