SOme Logical Observations

[redietz]

The video poker "discussion" has gotten out of hand. I think it's fair to say several things:

1) Who has what car in whose garage has nothing to do with video poker.
2) Using a certain strategy and having "winning" as a result is correlation. It's not necessarily cause-and-effect.
3) Win goals or stop-loss goals can have effects, but those effects have nothing to do with the math of the game. Win goals may result in playing when not fatigued -- reasonable assumption. Most everything else being attributed to win goals -- not reasonable assumptions.


Alan, the problem with much of this debate is that Rob's main argument is that he's won a million dollars playing this way. Okay, fair enough, but using this logic/argument, anybody's who has made more than Rob therefore has as a superior methodology and should be the focus of the discussion. One can chase money to the moon.

[Alan Mendelson]

Redietz I have no disagreement with anything you say. So why can't Rob win using his "strategy" and why do the APs feel Rob can't win and put him down?

[redietz]

I think it has to do with three things:

1) The claim Rob makes that NO APs win.
2) The claim that a population using Rob's methods would out-earn a population using pure AP play, which is (at very, very, very best) conjecture. I argue this is possible because, in the long-term, most APs lose discipline (not just at vp, but at "casino life" in general) and wind up as losers, and Rob's methods may help them lose less.
3) The tone of the criticism of APs, which does point out some of the undeniable (yeah, I read Gaming Today) effects long-term vp play has on people, much of which Frank might agree with.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob phoned me and he is in Lake Tahoe and his smart phone broke, so he can't check this forum. He said he might have a new phone on Sunday or Monday. I hope he responds.

I'm not sure Rob said that no APs win. I think his point is that the positive paytables that allow an AP to win don't exist anymore except at low denominations that really can't allow anyone who is an AP to make much money.

I've been told by an AP that playing $1 advantage play VP these days can give him an income of $25,000 per year playing 40 hours a week. $25K?? That's about $500 a week, or about $12.50 an hour which is less than what a fast food restaurant manager is paid. And the manager gets vacation and benefits -- the VP player does not.

I'm not even sure there are even high limit games anymore that can help someone "earn" a living. Earlier today I actually found ONE and only ONE 8/5 Bonus Poker machine at Caesars at the $5 level. There are also three at the $25 and $100 level. Every other Bonus game at Caesars has a 7/5 paytable.

I discussed the lack of positive paytables with Rob tonight as we drove back to LA from Vegas (I was there for a shopping promotion-- my wife got most of the loot) and his point is that if the positive paytables don't exist you have to do something different to win because the paytables no longer enable you to be a winner.

Now, there will be those odd machines that some APer is going to say are positive and allow them to earn a living. Well, good for them. I'm sticking with my day job.

[Rob.Singer]

My new phone won't be up here until Wed. and it won't be working until Thurs., but my daughter is letting me use hers for a bit. I didn't take my laptop, the only one here is hers and it's her secure work computer so I won't be using that.

What I've said about AP's -- and this is based on personal experience, the truthful words from many AP's I've sat with, and from watching numerous famous names and math types get caught in their phoney storytelling and obvious lies -- is that it is NOT possible for them to win over time without exceptional luck hitting more than their share of royals....just like any other knowledgeable and/or regular player. In fact, the more they chase those supposed +EV plays, the more they'll lose. And again, this is supported by years of AP experience along with a great big dose of simple common sense.

Let's start at the top. Dancer claims to have continuously won thru the years, he's boasted about it non-stop in all formats possible, and he's bragged about how much he always rapes the slot clubs for. Yet no casino stops him from coming back in to abuse them over & over again. Ever. Add to that the fact that he writes all this nonsense and multiple false stories about some of his play, just to boost his income from WORKING, and the intelligent mind will come to the only conclusion possible: he doesn't beat the machines, and if he wants to continue being severely addicted to playing the vp machines, the curse of having to work -- which is EXACTLY what he said was his goal NOT TO HAVE TO DO WHEN HE FIRST ARRIVED ON THE SCENE IN LV -- will never go away. Why some people don't get this or don't want to get this about him and the rest of the AP's is a mystery to me.

Now let's go towards the bottom: AP's like arcimedes. Look at what's happened to this poor soul. He can't go one day without either playing vp, writing about it on the Internet, or obsessing over me about how I've exposed the AP gig and have been able to develop a strategy he can't figure out. He plays low stakes. Does this sound like he consistently beats the Minn. Indians? Or does it sound like someone who's facing addiction and self-induced personal problems by simply giving in to them and letting the world of gambling control him?

For the sportsbettors among us, here's something to watch today: We'll be here in Tahoe for 21 nights in all. We needed a 5-bedroom "home" to rent because of the 6 adults and 4 grandkids. It's $1150/night + tax + cleaning etc.etc., so it's a pretty penny. So while I'm not going to play even one hand of vp on this family vacation, I did make a sports bet that, if it hits, will cover a good chunk of that cost. I had to make the bet in 3 different casinos because of limits, but the tickets are all the same. I put $6000 on an NFL parlay today for these four teams to cover: SF, SD, NE, & Phil. I've never bet a parlay before and I haven't made a sports bet in maybe 3 years. I also know this is a tough bet to win. Maybe if I claimed I was an AP it might look better??

Wish Singer luck!

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, good luck with your bet on the NFL games today: "$6000 on an NFL parlay today for these four teams to cover: SF, SD, NE, & Phil." I don't know anything about sports betting so please let us know how you did. Honestly any bet of $6,000 is out of my league whether its the National Football League or any other kind of league.

I find your comments above curious because a very prominent, professional VP player has been posting on the LVA Forum how winning professionals downplay their wins and income because they don't want the competition. On the other hand, I personally see nothing wrong with a winning professional also trying to sell his books and software to create a new business and new income.

[Rob.Singer]

I agree there's not much wrong with anyone creating any sort of income to live on via ancillary sales or whatever. But if you had followed Dancer from the beginning you'd have seen how he despised working traditional jobs, and how often he stated that he never wanted to have to go back to it again....in ANY form. He said that was the reason he moved to LV to become a professional gambler. He even mocked those who work --in his usual arrogant way. Little did he know, however, that those words would come back to bite him hard, and likely, because of his need to sit at the vp machines so long and so often, they will remain his curse until his last days.

The $6k bet is a bit much for betting for me these days too. It'll also cover double what I'm paying for this vacation if I get very, very lucky. But since I'm dishing out so much right now for what is really an unbelievable true total family vacation together, I'm justifying it by pretending it's just part of the overall experience.

[Alan Mendelson]

Thanks Rob. But I wouldn't consider writing books about video poker or giving lectures about VP to be "traditional work." Much as I don't consider making TV programs traditional work either. I often give speeches to schools and social and church groups and that's not work either. I consider it as part of a package for a career I love. I think Dancer could certainly write books, publish DVDs and give lectures as part of the game he loves.

[Rob.Singer]

Loves? More like "controls" him.

That work he does can be enjoyable I'm sure, but he also is EMPLOYED by Jeff Compton and is in the full time consulting business. It just contributes to the overall going back on his word & dream of doing nothing but gambling for a living after moving to LV from LA. And once again as having been a professional vp player for a decade, the LAST thing on your mind is looking for ways to make extra income at any time and in any way. That is, of course, assuming you actually WIN.

[redietz]

Good luck with San Diego tonight, Rob. If they win, you should at least consider hedging that Monday night play. What did you lay with SF?

[Alan Mendelson]

Loves? More like "controls" him.

That work he does can be enjoyable I'm sure, but he also is EMPLOYED by Jeff Compton and is in the full time consulting business. It just contributes to the overall going back on his word & dream of doing nothing but gambling for a living after moving to LV from LA. And once again as having been a professional vp player for a decade, the LAST thing on your mind is looking for ways to make extra income at any time and in any way. That is, of course, assuming you actually WIN.

Rob, honestly aren't you being a little "tough" here. If the guy can also hold down another job what's wrong with that?

And your comment about him "going back on his word & dream of doing nothing but gambling for a living after moving to LV from LA"?? I mean really, did he sign an oath in blood, swear on his children's lives, sign a pact with the devil? People make changes in their careers. Heck, I was in the news business for 35 years before I switched into producing and hosting TV infomercials. When I was in the news business you never got close to the advertising side of the business -- but now I am the advertising side of the business. LOL

[Rob.Singer]

Yes, I'm being tough--but honest. As you know, I live my life by doing what I say I'm going to do. Someone who says they're gonna do this but does that....I'll cut them some slack if they aren't out there blabbing it to impress others in a public format. That's not the case here. Besides, you're discounting what I said about professional gamblers and working other angles for income. Just doesn't happen if you're winning.

[redietz]

I don't know. While I agree most winning gamblers would avoid the spotlight if they could, sometimes the spotlight is what people prefer -- it is a celebrity culture in which we live. And God knows, "Dancer" seems to like the spotlight in every shape and form.