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Thread: Four Queens June Promotion

  1. #21
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much
    Why be so terrified of variance and losing on an individual play to suggest giving up almost the entire amount of positive EV? Going from 10/6 DDB to 9/6 jacks to give up a small amount of EV for less variance is one thing, but this just seems silly unless I’m missing something, or unless you get that much enjoyment out of playing bubble craps.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much
    OMG

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much
    I don't think the Four Queens even has a Bubble Craps machine. Maybe you are thinking of upstairs at The D.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by FABismonte View Post
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much
    I don't think the Four Queens even has a Bubble Craps machine. Maybe you are thinking of upstairs at The D.
    Excellent opportunity on that 2nd floor for advantage fleas.

    They have a couple clocks, an almost always 100.5%+ VP progressive at the bar, and a couple other goodies.


    To top that off, the new CIRCA Sportsbook replaced William Hill last week there.

  5. #25
    Circa is now at Thed Casino?
    #FreeTyde

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by PIGGY BANKER View Post
    Originally Posted by FABismonte View Post
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Play aruze bubble craps at 20$ per point and your expected loss for 4000 pts is $520....I just did it last week and mine ended up a little more than that but n ot much
    I don't think the Four Queens even has a Bubble Craps machine. Maybe you are thinking of upstairs at The D.
    Excellent opportunity on that 2nd floor for advantage fleas.

    They have a couple clocks, an almost always 100.5%+ VP progressive at the bar, and a couple other goodies.


    To top that off, the new CIRCA Sportsbook replaced William Hill last week there.

    Thanks, Piggy. Good to know. Much appreciated.

  7. #27

  8. #28
    4q has bubble craps right by the front door

  9. #29
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    I did bet both sides
    Excellent. So without insuring the come side using the bar bet, the following is true:
    1. 1/36 = probability of losing the come/pass side = 0.027777778 (actually this is always true LOL)
    2. Betting $10 on each side (pass/don't pass) you will lose $0.277777778 per roll
    3. 4000*$0.277777778 = 1111.111111

    Ron, betting straight (house edge 1.41%) up I get an expected loss of of $1128 (4000*$20*1.41%). Not $520.
    Where did I mess up ?
    Thanks.
    Last edited by tableplay; 06-27-2019 at 10:07 AM.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    4q has bubble craps right by the front door
    Thanks for the info.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    I did bet both sides
    Excellent. So without insuring the come side using the bar bet, the following is true:
    1. 1/36 = probability of losing the come/pass side = 0.027777778 (actually this is always true LOL)
    2. Betting $10 on each side (pass/don't pass) you will lose $0.277777778 per roll
    3. 4000*$0.277777778 = 1111.111111

    Ron, betting straight (house edge 1.41%) up I get an expected loss of of $1128 (4000*$20*1.41%). Not $520.
    Where did I mess up ?
    Thanks.
    I wonder if you get points on odds. Then you could be getting like 2 points per roll without any added house edge...and we'd be close to $520.

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    I did bet both sides
    Excellent. So without insuring the come side using the bar bet, the following is true:
    1. 1/36 = probability of losing the come/pass side = 0.027777778 (actually this is always true LOL)
    2. Betting $10 on each side (pass/don't pass) you will lose $0.277777778 per roll
    3. 4000*$0.277777778 = 1111.111111

    Ron, betting straight (house edge 1.41%) up I get an expected loss of of $1128 (4000*$20*1.41%). Not $520.
    Where did I mess up ?
    Thanks.
    I think those bubble craps got full double odds.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by unowme View Post
    I wonder if you get points on odds. Then you could be getting like 2 points per roll without any added house edge...and we'd be close to $520.
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I think those bubble craps got full double odds.
    That's where I messed up. Thanks guys. Teflon Ron is quick with his fingers and hands - you've got about fifteen seconds to get those odds bets down before you get "No more bets please" from the virtual stick woman. Also, you only get points once the bet is resolved so if you minimize variance with 4000 "spins" (bet resolutions), it may take awhile since you often have to wait until the point is made (so you are always hoping for craps [but no bar] or a 7/11 on the come out roll). You can save some time by using the come/don't come on each roll.
    And you can save even more time if you bet table max (odds bets count against the table max) and hope you don't land on the bar each come out roll.
    Two stations are required for this play (I guess it might be settable, but I've never seen any that allow all the hedges to be placed on the same station), and it gets "fun" if there is someone outside you or your two-person group (each "friend" can run a card) doing the shooting since it is on their time not yours (so 15 seconds often) until the dice are passed to you or your group. So obviously, going when it's uncrowded is best (or tie up the whole machine with a six-person group and six cards !!).
    If only one station is available you can bet the don't and then, if a point is created, put an appropriately sized place bet on the point to hedge the original bet and odds bet (if placed) if you are really quick with your fingers and hands.
    Last edited by tableplay; 06-27-2019 at 03:18 PM.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Ron, betting straight (house edge 1.41%) up I get an expected loss of of $1128 (4000*$20*1.41%). Not $520.
    Where did I mess up ?
    Thanks.
    Also, the house edge on the Don't Pass is slightly less than then Pass, so you'd have to blend those rates. At this level and considering the odds bets, it's a couple of bucks less in expected loss.
    Last edited by unowme; 06-27-2019 at 08:19 PM.

  15. #35
    NM misunderstood something.
    Last edited by smurgerburger; 06-27-2019 at 10:03 PM.

  16. #36
    I did the whole 4000 points in one shot a couple days ago.

    Actually, I did 4020 points as they had a new members earn $10 FP with 20 points.

    I started with $400 on the $1 9/6 JOB and ran well early with quads and got nearly 2000 points before busting.

    Then, I went to the bar and fed $400 into the $1 DDB - got nothing and quickly busted.

    Onto the Wheel Poker Deluxe for $200. Bad paytables, but I enjoy the game. Nothing

    Back to the bar for more 99.96% DDB. Put in $300 and hit aces for $800. Took that ticket to the JOB and rode it to 4000 points. Cashed out at $660.

    I did hit one SF, but no royals. Quads seemed slightly ahead of schedule.

    I did receive the whole $420 in FP - which I played at the bar .50 DDB. Cashed in $312 from the FP.

    I also got $100 in cash back from the cage and the $240 comp. Used the comp for Magnolias for dinner that night and the rest for Hugo's Cellar the next night.

    Hugo's was good, but not exceptional. All in all, I lost a little money, got a lot of comps and had a good time.

  17. #37
    Ur math is wrong because u didn't factor in also playing 2x odds on both sides as well....like I said $520 not $1100

  18. #38
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Ur math is wrong because u didn't factor in also playing 2x odds on both sides as well....like I said $520 not $1100

    Isn't the promo only worth +500 though?

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Ur math is wrong because u didn't factor in also playing 2x odds on both sides as well....like I said $520 not $1100

    Isn't the promo only worth +500 though?
    400 Free Play
    100 Cash Back
    200 Comps

  20. #40
    Originally Posted by TeflonRon View Post
    Ur math is wrong because u didn't factor in also playing 2x odds on both sides as well....like I said $520 not $1100
    When factoring in 2x odds (assumes live craps rules) I get an expected loss of $-416.67. Please see the spreadsheet snapshot below for more details. Note that on average, 1500 spins are required for ten dollars on both sides, plus the odds bet for each side on the next roll if a point is made. So it must have taken a while (even entering each roll with a come and don't come followed by odds bet placements on the next roll if a point is made instead of waiting for passline resolution) and you have excellent dexterity putting down the bets on each station and their odds on each station (if a point is made) about 1500 times (plus the fraction of times a point is made) within 15 seconds each time with no mistakes.
    Name:  odds_bet_4_queens_promo.jpg
Views: 1233
Size:  118.0 KB
    Last edited by tableplay; 06-28-2019 at 01:49 PM. Reason: because Teflon Ron is cool

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