Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
Hey Mickey... One of the problems I had with BD was the variance in the bonus spin value. We've all seen 3 sunsets change dozens of blank spins from a sure beating into a hand-pay...

Considering how rare those sunsets connect, I knew getting 20,000+ bonus spins for each bet level / color combination would take forever... That got me started on making a couple of models to marry the bonus spins in different ways across bet levels and bonus types. As it turned out, a couple of those models were better at predicting the average value including the next bonus spins than the point estimates I had from isolated bet level / color combinations. I actually cant take full credit... A cohort of mine discovered the relationship...

The only reason I mention this is because with one of those models having actual values on the 1x would have been useful. Unfortunately I didn't have it because like you I was focused on exit points, the drop to get there, and the value of the exit point. The good news is that even though I'm sure that my model is not perfect, its within 0.15 bets per spin of the one that I cannot validate due to the absence of the 1x average value. It is also now within 0.1 bets per spin of actual results now that I'm up to 121K bonus spins observed on all color / bet combos except the 1.60 3x.

net / net... Its a non-issue now that the data set is big enough but I do wonder if i would have gotten there faster recording 1x values... I'm convinced that there are multiple ways to skin this cat.

Now the weakest part of the model is wheel observations.

BD is a crazy game but its been a lot of fun to work on.
Pro, I have to think that you are now the one with the most knowledge and experience at Buffalo Diamonds.
Well... I needed something to do to kill time. My underwear modeling gigs have really slowed down since the pandemic took hold. ;-)