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Thread: Guidelines for AP play on Buffalo Diamond slots

  1. #161
    [QUOTE=mickeycrimm;109557]
    Originally Posted by aplowroller View Post
    I've played at $4.. 24 19 57... 565 spins until first wheel
    I have my own stats for all four levels of Buffalo Diamond. Everything I discuss here I'm using my own stats. On the $4 level you are taking a huge drop between wheels, 60.72%. So the return is just 39.28% until you hit a wheel. That means extremely high variance.

    The wheel frequency is 126. So you went 565 spins to hit a wheel. That's about 4 and a half cycles which is a very infrequent occurrence. You got the shaft on that particular play.

    Would I have played a 24/19/57? Let's see

    24 X 1.49% = 35.76%
    19 X .87% = 16.53%
    57 X .18% = 10.26%
    Main Game = 39.28%
    ---------------------------
    Total 101.83%



    I forgot to add in the meter rate here, 3.9% since I'm most likely going to play until I hit the 2X.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  2. #162
    Originally Posted by Ozzy View Post
    Originally Posted by kuma View Post
    Name:  
Views: 
Size:
    That 3x is insane, just shows how volatile these are. I seen the 4x at 352 before.
    What if this were a 160 play? This is what it would look like:

    12 X .0074 = 8.88%
    217 X .00236 = 51.2%
    53 X .0018 = 9.54%
    Main Game 62.1%
    -------------------------------
    Total 131.72%

    The meter speed add on would be 5.2%.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  3. #163
    [QUOTE=Ozzy;108449]
    Originally Posted by kuma View Post
    Name:  
Views: 
Size:
    This is what it looks like on the 250 level:

    12 X .0123 = 14.76%
    217 X .0026 = 56.4%
    53 X .0022 = 11.66%
    Main Game = 56.34%
    ---------------------------
    Total = 139.16%

    The 3 X meter speed add on is 5.9%
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  4. #164
    If you notice I have different decimals for all four bet levels. Thats because all the bet levels have their own unique configurations. How is a decimal arrived at?

    The decimal represents the value of 1 free game. On the 75 level the decimal for a 2X free game is .0059.

    Wheel freq. = 132.68
    You will hit the 2X every 4.24 wheels. This was derived by collecting stats on hitting 500 wheels.
    So 2X freq. is 132.68 X 4.24 = 645.38 regular games.

    The value of a 2X free game is 3.817. This was determined by collecting stats on several thousand 2X free games.

    To get the decimal you divide the value of a 2X free game, 3.817, by 645.38 regular games.

    3.817/645.38 = .005914

    I rounded it down to .0059 for ease of use.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  5. #165
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    If you notice I have different decimals for all four bet levels. Thats because all the bet levels have their own unique configurations. How is a decimal arrived at?

    The decimal represents the value of 1 free game. On the 75 level the decimal for a 2X free game is .0059.

    Wheel freq. = 132.68
    You will hit the 2X every 4.24 wheels. This was derived by collecting stats on hitting 500 wheels.
    So 2X freq. is 132.68 X 4.24 = 645.38 regular games.

    The value of a 2X free game is 3.817. This was determined by collecting stats on several thousand 2X free games.

    To get the decimal you divide the value of a 2X free game, 3.817, by 645.38 regular games.

    3.817/645.38 = .005914

    I rounded it down to .0059 for ease of use.
    Good stuff Mickey!

    Thank you for posting that!

  6. #166
    Back in February I hit 3x on 75 cent at around 205. I got it at 195. I was very happy.

  7. #167
    One of the other interesting things Mickey posted in the past was the “banking” or cost of playing the game at higher levels. Which is why the numbers and his decimals are different for each level.

    Unlike a normal slot that would go 75-150-225-300, you pay more on the higher bets. 75-160-250-400. So you are paying an extra $1 per spin at $4 and still only getting 4x the base pay on winners.
    Raise you hand if you actually believed KJ would quit WoV like he claimed. Bonus points for knowing how many times he has Quit the forums.

  8. #168
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Here is a good tweet on BD: https://mobile.twitter.com/PotatoAdv...34069249327106

    While I'd love for you to tell me what I have wrong, you still have a relatively small amount of data to pull from comparatively, so I'd question its accuracy. Also, if you tracked your data similar to Mickey, its inherently false since he combined 1x bonus spins into the base.
    Ex-ap has made the repeated assertion that my combining the 1X free games with the main game spins is the wrong way to do things. But he did not point out the correct way to do it and why it is correct to do it that way.

    So I am challenging ex-ap to tell us why it is the wrong way to do it and then give us the correct way to do it....and explain to us why it is the correct way.

    I won't hold my breath until we get an answer.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  9. #169
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Here is a good tweet on BD: https://mobile.twitter.com/PotatoAdv...34069249327106

    “ While I'd love for you to tell me what I have wrong, you still have a relatively small amount of data to pull from comparatively, so I'd question its accuracy. Also, if you tracked your data similar to Mickey, its inherently false since he combined 1x bonus spins into the base.”
    Ex-ap has made the repeated assertion that my combining the 1X free games with the main game spins is the wrong way to do things. But he did not point out the correct way to do it and why it is correct to do it that way.

    So I am challenging ex-ap to tell us why it is the wrong way to do it and then give us the correct way to do it....and explain to us why it is the correct way.

    I won't hold my breath until we get an answer.
    Great stuff Mickey. Next move by Ex-Crement will be to wait a little while and then gaslight any mistakes he made with his incessant vitriol.

  10. #170
    Funny that some claim @mickeycrimm is wrong. My real world profit on the game says he is correct. Thank you Mickey

  11. #171
    Originally Posted by radicalwin View Post
    Funny that some claim @mickeycrimm is wrong. My real world profit on the game says he is correct. Thank you Mickey
    Thanks, radicalwin. Tracking the BD's was a pain in the ass because of so many different things that had to be tracked.

    1. I had to track the amount of money I put in the machine.
    2. I used the slot card to count spins.
    3. I had to track the number of wheels I caught. This was easy enough to do. I simply wrote 1X or 2X, etc in my notebook when I caught a wheel.
    4. I had to track the number of free games initially awarded in 2X, 3X, 4X free game mode.
    5. I had to track how much those free games payed.
    6.When the play was over I still had work to do.

    Say I put a $500 ticket in the machine to chase a 2X on 50 at the 75 level until I hit it. The stats might say I made 575 spins, I was awarded 59 free games at 2X, the free games payed $172 (229 units), the cashout was $532.

    Subtracting the $172 from $532 told me I spun the ticket down to $360 to hit the 2X. That meant that the 575 spins cost $140/187 units ($500 minus $360).


    That 187 divided by the number of spins, 575, told me the drop was 32.5%. Subtracting 32.5% from 1 meant the combined return of the regular spins plus the 1X free games was 67.5%

    If I would have tracked the regular free spins and 1X free spins separately it would have added a ton of work. I would have to stop every time I caught a wheel to log in the 1X pays. But I asked myself "do I really need that information?" The answer is NO. Because I would just have to add them together anyway. Tracking them separately would not have changed the result.

    While playing I had my notebook laying on the machine with an open page where I made a mark in a column everytime a 2X, 3X, 4X diamond landed on the 5th reel.

    Then it was a matter of using running totals on the stats as the plays added up.

    So it was a lot of work to track the BD's.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  12. #172
    MickyCrimm, this is my first post and was impressed with your post regarding Buffalo Diamond stats. I have been in gaming for over 50 years, back in the days when the machines were mechanical and have been trying to get information on hold percentages on the gulf coast. Buffalo Diamond is the main slot machine I am interested in knowing about. I wonder if there is a way we could get together, other than on this site to discuss other gambling.

  13. #173
    This is Barney

    Is that you Kewl

  14. #174
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    MickyCrimm, this is my first post and was impressed with your post regarding Buffalo Diamond stats. I have been in gaming for over 50 years, back in the days when the machines were mechanical and have been trying to get information on hold percentages on the gulf coast. Buffalo Diamond is the main slot machine I am interested in knowing about. I wonder if there is a way we could get together, other than on this site to discuss other gambling.
    Sorry, don't do meetups. I'll be glad to answer any questions thru this site. Buffalo Diamonds is a shared revenue game so most likely no higher payback than high 80's. My stats put the 75 level at 87%.

    Some believe that the casino or manufacturer routinely lower the paybacks of these vulturable games after they have been in the casino for awhile. And the cause for lowering the payback is the knowledgeable players profiting from the game. I'm not in that click.

    Why would they lower a payback that is already down in the high 80's? The house trying to outwit the hustlers causes ploppies to quit playing the game. Their money disappears fast enough as is. The one thing ploppies notice is how fast their money is disappearing. Lowering the payback causes them to quit playing the game.

    The house is already making good money on the game. There's no need to downgrade the payback.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 07-26-2020 at 05:15 AM.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  15. #175
    Originally Posted by aplowroller View Post
    My last $4 buffalo diamond took 565 spins to hit the first wheel... down $1600 before I could blink
    Welcome to Buffalo Diamond!

  16. #176
    Originally Posted by Ex-AP View Post
    Here is a good tweet on BD: https://mobile.twitter.com/PotatoAdv...34069249327106

    “ While I'd love for you to tell me what I have wrong, you still have a relatively small amount of data to pull from comparatively, so I'd question its accuracy. Also, if you tracked your data similar to Mickey, its inherently false since he combined 1x bonus spins into the base.”
    I know that dude. He's in my general region... He's semi-unstable with anger management problems... His primary gig is running cards at Harrah's. He was fishing for info on buffalo. Now his twitter is deleted... He will show up again with another name and let us all know how dumb we are... Just like you're doing...

    I'll just keep laughing at him all the way to the bank.

  17. #177
    Hey Mickey... One of the problems I had with BD was the variance in the bonus spin value. We've all seen 3 sunsets change dozens of blank spins from a sure beating into a hand-pay...

    Considering how rare those sunsets connect, I knew getting 20,000+ bonus spins for each bet level / color combination would take forever... That got me started on making a couple of models to marry the bonus spins in different ways across bet levels and bonus types. As it turned out, a couple of those models were better at predicting the average value including the next bonus spins than the point estimates I had from isolated bet level / color combinations. I actually cant take full credit... A cohort of mine discovered the relationship...

    The only reason I mention this is because with one of those models having actual values on the 1x would have been useful. Unfortunately I didn't have it because like you I was focused on exit points, the drop to get there, and the value of the exit point. The good news is that even though I'm sure that my model is not perfect, its within 0.15 bets per spin of the one that I cannot validate due to the absence of the 1x average value. It is also now within 0.1 bets per spin of actual results now that I'm up to 121K bonus spins observed on all color / bet combos except the 1.60 3x.

    net / net... Its a non-issue now that the data set is big enough but I do wonder if i would have gotten there faster recording 1x values... I'm convinced that there are multiple ways to skin this cat.

    Now the weakest part of the model is wheel observations.

    BD is a crazy game but its been a lot of fun to work on.

  18. #178

  19. #179
    Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
    Hey Mickey... One of the problems I had with BD was the variance in the bonus spin value. We've all seen 3 sunsets change dozens of blank spins from a sure beating into a hand-pay...

    Considering how rare those sunsets connect, I knew getting 20,000+ bonus spins for each bet level / color combination would take forever... That got me started on making a couple of models to marry the bonus spins in different ways across bet levels and bonus types. As it turned out, a couple of those models were better at predicting the average value including the next bonus spins than the point estimates I had from isolated bet level / color combinations. I actually cant take full credit... A cohort of mine discovered the relationship...

    The only reason I mention this is because with one of those models having actual values on the 1x would have been useful. Unfortunately I didn't have it because like you I was focused on exit points, the drop to get there, and the value of the exit point. The good news is that even though I'm sure that my model is not perfect, its within 0.15 bets per spin of the one that I cannot validate due to the absence of the 1x average value. It is also now within 0.1 bets per spin of actual results now that I'm up to 121K bonus spins observed on all color / bet combos except the 1.60 3x.

    net / net... Its a non-issue now that the data set is big enough but I do wonder if i would have gotten there faster recording 1x values... I'm convinced that there are multiple ways to skin this cat.

    Now the weakest part of the model is wheel observations.

    BD is a crazy game but its been a lot of fun to work on.
    Pro, I have to think that you are now the one with the most knowledge and experience at Buffalo Diamonds.
    Robert Earl Dietz is not an expert on coronavirus. He actually better fits the definition of a fraud on coronavirus.

  20. #180
    Gold LMR's Avatar
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    I have to think that gaming is smart gambling, with the latter being an oxymoron, or juxtaposing.

    I googled the IQ of the average gambler.

    If 100 is the average IQ for a normal person in society, then there is your answer. Most compulsive gamblers are normal, every day folk, with one sad vice. Though honestly, the extremes of the bell curve for intelligence may be where you find most gamblers. As a casino that is practically spitting distance from Brown University, I’ve seen some very intelligent people come in and play in an amazingly non intelligent manner. Conversely, I’ve seen some barely literate human beings master basic strategy, and actually advise new players on probability and odds.

    Just this past week I had to explain to a Mathematics major that no, that game is not rigged just because he lost 8 hands in a row. He apparently missed the section of statistics that covered sample sizes. Or user bias. But hey, that diploma will make up for all that.

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-averag...ling-addiction
    As a recovering compulsive gambler, I have met thousands of self-professed gambling addicts. While many owned and operated successful businesses or held high positions in the private or public sectors, nearly all of them demonstrated uncanny abilities to accumulate vast amounts of money and manipulate others. Personally, I think most of us were too smart for our own good, prolonging our addiction — causing more harm to ourselves, loved ones, friends, employers, and others.

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-averag...ling-addiction
    Now I wonder what the average intelligence is of a so-called AP.

    Ha, going by the anagrams, for fun, Prozema ---> map zero.

    If only there were an IQ test for swearing, trolling and like, for Mickey.
    Lustin' lutins (from) NUTS:LI (Lichtenstein), unlist insult, until's sunlit!


    p
    M
    u
    r
    taRd

    ---> MR. L(osing).


    Shut it down, LMR. = Low Mind thRust, (invar.)

    555 = 111 + 4*111 = 15*37, or 37*15, as 153, and 7, or, 371, and 5. As 153 on 371, to 5/7 left, as 6 +/- 1.

    3/21 to 8/22 is 153 + 1 days. 321 = 107*3 + 0; 123 = 3*71 + 0. To 1/0. 822 = (-1 + 7)(37 + 100); 228 = 57[6 - (1 + 1)], ---> 11411. 15[3^2] = 153 + (5 + 1). 154 days is ~ 42.08% of year 2020. 451 = 11*41^1.

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