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Thread: Guidelines for AP play on Buffalo Diamond slots

  1. #181
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
    Hey Mickey... One of the problems I had with BD was the variance in the bonus spin value. We've all seen 3 sunsets change dozens of blank spins from a sure beating into a hand-pay...

    Considering how rare those sunsets connect, I knew getting 20,000+ bonus spins for each bet level / color combination would take forever... That got me started on making a couple of models to marry the bonus spins in different ways across bet levels and bonus types. As it turned out, a couple of those models were better at predicting the average value including the next bonus spins than the point estimates I had from isolated bet level / color combinations. I actually cant take full credit... A cohort of mine discovered the relationship...

    The only reason I mention this is because with one of those models having actual values on the 1x would have been useful. Unfortunately I didn't have it because like you I was focused on exit points, the drop to get there, and the value of the exit point. The good news is that even though I'm sure that my model is not perfect, its within 0.15 bets per spin of the one that I cannot validate due to the absence of the 1x average value. It is also now within 0.1 bets per spin of actual results now that I'm up to 121K bonus spins observed on all color / bet combos except the 1.60 3x.

    net / net... Its a non-issue now that the data set is big enough but I do wonder if i would have gotten there faster recording 1x values... I'm convinced that there are multiple ways to skin this cat.

    Now the weakest part of the model is wheel observations.

    BD is a crazy game but its been a lot of fun to work on.
    Pro, I have to think that you are now the one with the most knowledge and experience at Buffalo Diamonds.
    Well... I needed something to do to kill time. My underwear modeling gigs have really slowed down since the pandemic took hold. ;-)

  2. #182
    Originally Posted by LMR View Post
    I have to think that gaming is smart gambling, with the latter being an oxymoron, or juxtaposing.

    I googled the IQ of the average gambler.

    If 100 is the average IQ for a normal person in society, then there is your answer. Most compulsive gamblers are normal, every day folk, with one sad vice. Though honestly, the extremes of the bell curve for intelligence may be where you find most gamblers. As a casino that is practically spitting distance from Brown University, Iíve seen some very intelligent people come in and play in an amazingly non intelligent manner. Conversely, Iíve seen some barely literate human beings master basic strategy, and actually advise new players on probability and odds.

    Just this past week I had to explain to a Mathematics major that no, that game is not rigged just because he lost 8 hands in a row. He apparently missed the section of statistics that covered sample sizes. Or user bias. But hey, that diploma will make up for all that.

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-averag...ling-addiction
    As a recovering compulsive gambler, I have met thousands of self-professed gambling addicts. While many owned and operated successful businesses or held high positions in the private or public sectors, nearly all of them demonstrated uncanny abilities to accumulate vast amounts of money and manipulate others. Personally, I think most of us were too smart for our own good, prolonging our addiction ó causing more harm to ourselves, loved ones, friends, employers, and others.

    https://www.quora.com/What-is-averag...ling-addiction
    Now I wonder what the average intelligence is of a so-called AP.

    Ha, going by the anagrams, for fun, Prozema ---> map zero.

    If only there were an IQ test for swearing, trolling and like, for Mickey.
    Keep thinking. You'll get it right eventually... Practice makes perfect.

  3. #183
    Heard 2 aps at my home casino took a beating on a 250 4x that was 180. Lost over 4k

  4. #184
    Variance is a mutha....

  5. #185
    Originally Posted by radicalwin View Post
    Heard 2 aps at my home casino took a beating on a 250 4x that was 180. Lost over 4k
    Sounds like it ran a little over 2 cycles. That could have been a lot worse.

  6. #186
    Gold LMR's Avatar
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    Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
    Keep thinking. You'll get it right eventually... Practice makes perfect.
    Hmm. Mothers, underwear, getting it right, and beatings. Sadism? Must be masochism.

    How's this for a start?
    Lustin' lutins (from) NUTS:LI (Lichtenstein), unlist insult, until's sunlit!


    p
    M
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    taRd

    ---> MR. L(osing).


    Shut it down, LMR. = Low Mind thRust, (invar.)

    555 = 111 + 4*111 = 15*37, or 37*15, as 153, and 7, or, 371, and 5. As 153 on 371, to 5/7 left, as 6 +/- 1.

    3/21 to 8/22 is 153 + 1 days. 321 = 107*3 + 0; 123 = 3*71 + 0. To 1/0. 822 = (-1 + 7)(37 + 100); 228 = 57[6 - (1 + 1)], ---> 11411. 15[3^2] = 153 + (5 + 1). 154 days is ~ 42.08% of year 2020. 451 = 11*41^1.

  7. #187
    Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
    Well... I needed something to do to kill time. My underwear modeling gigs have really slowed down since the pandemic took hold. ;-)
    I think I may have seen you in a recent catalog I received. The underwear was the Wide Load brand - the ones with the red tag in the back.

  8. #188
    Mickey, thanks for your feedback. You said that on the 75 level the base game is 64.2% and that the payback is high 80's, probably 87% payback. How does the base game become 64.2% instead of 87%?

  9. #189
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Mickey, thanks for your feedback. You said that on the 75 level the base game is 64.2% and that the payback is high 80's, probably 87% payback. How does the base game become 64.2% instead of 87%?
    The base game payback doesn’t include the payback for the 2X, 3X, 4X free games. My stats say the game is around 87% but I never said I’m 100% absolutely sure it’s 87%.
    "We need to shut down the entire economy so 80-year olds Ma and Pa Kettle might live another six months." Comrade Dietz

  10. #190
    Thanks again Mickey. I understand this is your stats and not to take it as an absolute. I am in the process of making a chart, which I thought I had it figured out on the 75 level, however I keep coming up with a problem. When I multiply all the 2,3 4x's, do I add that to the 80-87%? If not, what number of percent do I add it to?

  11. #191
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Mickey, thanks for your feedback. You said that on the 75 level the base game is 64.2% and that the payback is high 80's, probably 87% payback. How does the base game become 64.2% instead of 87%?
    The base game payback doesnít include the payback for the 2X, 3X, 4X free games. My stats say the game is around 87% but I never said Iím 100% absolutely sure itís 87%.
    Just learning how to use this site! Please read my previous blog.

  12. #192
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Mickey, thanks for your feedback. You said that on the 75 level the base game is 64.2% and that the payback is high 80's, probably 87% payback. How does the base game become 64.2% instead of 87%?
    The base game payback doesnít include the payback for the 2X, 3X, 4X free games. My stats say the game is around 87% but I never said Iím 100% absolutely sure itís 87%.
    Just learning how to use this site! Please read my previous blog.
    Thanks. I understand this is your stats and not to take it as an absolute. I have been in the process of making a chart to see what the green should be for a slight win, thought I had it figured out on the 75 level, however I keep coming up with a problem. When I multiply all the 2,3 4x's, do I add that to the 80-87%? If not, what percentage do I add it to? Also, you posted the hit frequency for the $4 at 126. Do you know the hit frequency for the 75, 1.60 and 2.50?

  13. #193
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    The base game payback doesnít include the payback for the 2X, 3X, 4X free games. My stats say the game is around 87% but I never said Iím 100% absolutely sure itís 87%.
    Just learning how to use this site! Please read my previous blog.
    Thanks. I understand this is your stats and not to take it as an absolute. I have been in the process of making a chart to see what the green should be for a slight win, thought I had it figured out on the 75 level, however I keep coming up with a problem. When I multiply all the 2,3 4x's, do I add that to the 80-87%? If not, what percentage do I add it to? Also, you posted the hit frequency for the $4 at 126. Do you know the hit frequency for the 75, 1.60 and 2.50?
    I apparently got brain locked from being at my computer too long and making this harder than it was. I got it now. Thank you for all your good blogs and responses. Hope to see more information from you in the future as me and my wife have been players for many years.

  14. #194
    They have this game in casinos where local law there requires at least 87% on each machine.

    Could it be higher? Doubt it in my market. I think most penny machines at my main casino are 87% based on what I have seen.

  15. #195
    Originally Posted by radicalwin View Post
    They have this game in casinos where local law there requires at least 87% on each machine.

    Could it be higher? Doubt it in my market. I think most penny machines at my main casino are 87% based on what I have seen.
    It could absolutely be higher or lower. Its not unusual for there to be 7 or more possibilities with paybacks ranging form 85% to 95%+.

  16. #196
    What is the hit frequency of the 75, 1.60 and 2.50?

  17. #197
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by aplowroller View Post
    I've played at $4.. 24 19 57... 565 spins until first wheel
    I have my own stats for all four levels of Buffalo Diamond. Everything I discuss here I'm using my own stats. On the $4 level you are taking a huge drop between wheels, 60.72%. So the return is just 39.28% until you hit a wheel. That means extremely high variance.

    The wheel frequency is 126. So you went 565 spins to hit a wheel. That's about 4 and a half cycles which is a very infrequent occurrence. You got the shaft on that particular play.

    Would I have played a 24/19/57? Let's see

    24 X 1.49% = 35.76%
    19 X .87% = 16.53%
    57 X .18% = 10.26%
    Main Game = 39.28%
    ---------------------------
    Total 101.83%

    It's a marginal play at best. I would have to have some other incentive to play it or else I would prefer it to be a little higher.
    Do you know the hit frequency on the 2.50 and 1.60?

  18. #198
    Originally Posted by Littleray View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by aplowroller View Post
    I've played at $4.. 24 19 57... 565 spins until first wheel
    I have my own stats for all four levels of Buffalo Diamond. Everything I discuss here I'm using my own stats. On the $4 level you are taking a huge drop between wheels, 60.72%. So the return is just 39.28% until you hit a wheel. That means extremely high variance.

    The wheel frequency is 126. So you went 565 spins to hit a wheel. That's about 4 and a half cycles which is a very infrequent occurrence. You got the shaft on that particular play.

    Would I have played a 24/19/57? Let's see

    24 X 1.49% = 35.76%
    19 X .87% = 16.53%
    57 X .18% = 10.26%
    Main Game = 39.28%
    ---------------------------
    Total 101.83%

    It's a marginal play at best. I would have to have some other incentive to play it or else I would prefer it to be a little higher.
    Do you know the hit frequency on the 2.50 and 1.60?
    If you mean how often you catch the wheel my stats show 124 spins on 160 and 125 on 250.
    "We need to shut down the entire economy so 80-year olds Ma and Pa Kettle might live another six months." Comrade Dietz

  19. #199
    @mickeycrimm : Thanks the detail Analysis of BD at various bet levels. This is very helpful. Earlier in a thread you mentioned a meter rate of 5% while focusing on hitting 3X for $1.60 bet level. Is there a meter rate associated w $4.00 bet level ? Could you detail how you determine meter rate and how does that factor in for calculating EV if I want to focus hitting 2x or 3X?

  20. #200
    The components that make up the total return on a spin banking game is 1) the return from the reels, 2) the return from the banked spins, and 3) the meter speed.

    1. The return from the reels (aka the main game) is calculated by subtracting the amount lost divided by the coin in from 1.
    Example: You took 100 $1 spins and lost $20. That's 1-(20/100) = .8 That's an 80% return to player.

    2. The return from the banked spins is calculated by dividing the value of the event by the frequency of the event.
    Example: For buffalo diamond let's say you trigger the wheel every 123 spins and it lands on the 2x 23.7% of the time. 123/.237 = 520 spins to hit the 2x. That's the frequency. If a 2x spin pays 3.6 bets per banked spin that means each banked spin is worth about 0.69% (3.6/520). To get the total banked you would multiply 0.69% by the total number banked.

    3. The meter speed is value you realize from the rise of the meters while you are playing the game. i.e. if you sit down and the 2x is at 50 and you expect to take 520 spins before it hits, it's unlikely that you will hit it at 50. You calculate the meter speed by taking the value of the event and dividing it by the frequency of the event that will increment the meter.
    Example: In Buffalo Diamond collecting a diamond in reel 5 increments the meter. Let's say that lands every 61 spins. 3.6 / 61 = 5.9%

    It's important to remember not to double count things. Example: In #1 you need to subtract out any bonuses you hit to get the coin in for the main game.

    If you decide to chase a 2x, you will realize the full value of the 2x meter speed. You will also realize some small portion of the value of the 3x and 4x meter speed.
    If you are going to chase a 3x, you will realize the full value of the 3x meter speed. You will also realize some portion of the value of the 2x and 4x meter speed. The 2x will be a large portion and the 4x will be a relatively small portion.
    If you decide to chase a 4x (God help you) you will realize the full value of the 4x meter speed. You will also realize some portion of the value of the 2x and 3x meter speed.The 2x will be a large portion and the 3x will be a relatively small portion.

    On the off chance your next question is going to be about handling meter speed value on combination plays where the value is spread across multiple meters you would compare the relative frequency of each event occurring and distribute the meter speed accordingly.
    Example. If the 2x hits every 520 spins and the 3x hits every 2080 spins you are going to hit 1 3x for every 4 2x... 5 events total. 1/5 = 20% of the 3x meter speed and 4/5 = 80% of the 2x meter speed.

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