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Thread: Guidelines for AP play on Buffalo Diamond slots

  1. #81
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I like the decimal method for calculating plays. The decimals are derived by dividing the value of a freespin by the number of regular spins it takes to get it.

    For example, on the 75 level, the value of a 2X freespin is 3.337 units (based on 6K freespins).

    The frequency to get to the 2X is 565.56. This number comes from multiplying the number of regular games it takes to catch the wheel, 132.68, by the average number of wheel spins it takes to catch the 2X multiplier, 4.24. That works out to 565.56.

    3.337/565.5 = .0059 rounded.

    Decimal for 3X is .001943
    Decimal for 4X is .001295

    So say I run into this configuration 2X 33/3X 56/ 4X 102

    main game return is 64.2%
    2X meter speed is 5.536%
    The 3X and 4X meter speeds are not included because most of the time we are going to hit the 2X first then quit the play.
    We've got a 69.7% base game

    33 X .0059 = .1947
    56 X .001943 = .1088
    102 X .001295 = 13.2%
    Total 43.55%

    69.7 + 43.55 = 113.25%

    Keep in mind that even though it shows a big edge most of the time you are going to lose on this play because all of the edge is in the 4X. On a play like this you'll get a payday about every 11 or 12 plays if you can fade the losses in between.

    Thanks to Prozema for the database to work with.
    Fantastic post Mickey. Parlaying on this post - if you only are comfortable working with a small bank roll, like me,
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    fromhttps://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post95383) <snip> I don't even involve the 4x in my decision-making process.<snip>
    Then just use the 2x and 3x numbers to determine if you want to jump in on a play (75c denom example):
    Is 69.7+[100*banked_twotimes_spins*(.0059)]+[100*banked_threetimes_spins*(.001943)] >=100 ?
    If it is, then you can jump in on the play. Obviously you will miss out on some plays this way. But a cheapskate's comfort zone is what it is.

  2. #82
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    I like the decimal method for calculating plays. The decimals are derived by dividing the value of a freespin by the number of regular spins it takes to get it.

    For example, on the 75 level, the value of a 2X freespin is 3.337 units (based on 6K freespins).

    The frequency to get to the 2X is 565.56. This number comes from multiplying the number of regular games it takes to catch the wheel, 132.68, by the average number of wheel spins it takes to catch the 2X multiplier, 4.24. That works out to 565.56.

    3.337/565.5 = .0059 rounded.

    Decimal for 3X is .001943
    Decimal for 4X is .001295

    So say I run into this configuration 2X 33/3X 56/ 4X 102

    main game return is 64.2%
    2X meter speed is 5.536%
    The 3X and 4X meter speeds are not included because most of the time we are going to hit the 2X first then quit the play.
    We've got a 69.7% base game

    33 X .0059 = .1947
    56 X .001943 = .1088
    102 X .001295 = 13.2%
    Total 43.55%

    69.7 + 43.55 = 113.25%

    Keep in mind that even though it shows a big edge most of the time you are going to lose on this play because all of the edge is in the 4X. On a play like this you'll get a payday about every 11 or 12 plays if you can fade the losses in between.

    Thanks to Prozema for the database to work with.
    Fantastic post Mickey. Parlaying on this post - if you only are comfortable working with a small bank roll, like me,
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    fromhttps://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post95383) <snip> I don't even involve the 4x in my decision-making process.<snip>
    Then just use the 2x and 3x numbers to determine if you want to jump in on a play (75c denom example):
    Is 69.7+[100*banked_twotimes_spins*(.0059)]+[100*banked_threetimes_spins*(.001943)] >=100 ?
    If it is, then you can jump in on the play. Obviously you will miss out on some plays this way. But a cheapskate's comfort zone is what it is.
    Discounting out the 4X is a good way to play because it guarantee's a bigger overall edge in the long run. But I do like the 3X/4X combination plays.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #83
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by acescracked_1210 View Post

    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Wow. Of all the people I've heard wonder about this (including me), nobody else bothered to just compare the listed pays at the different denominations.
    He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Prozema was implying that he thought the reel strips themselves in the main game were different at the higher bet levels. I don't believe that's the case. I think the difference in base game return is solely due to the extra money taken out to fund better bonuses.
    The 75 level returns more units in the freespins than the higher bets levels but the frequencies to get to the multipliers are longer. The overall return to player is about the same on all 4 bet levels but big differences in the configurations. The 75 and 160 levels are pretty close in configuration but the 250 and 400 levels are quite different; smaller main game returns, shorter frequencies on the multipliers but also lower returns in the freespins.
    Small(ish) sample size, but I'm not sure I agree with the first part of your first sentence. The $2.50/$4.00 bet levels are quite heavily played in my locale. Current numbers are as follows:

    2x;

    $.75: 3.248 bets/spin, 1026 free spins played
    $1.60: 3.305 bets/spin, 1077 free spins played
    $2.50: 3.279 bets/spin, 864 free spins played
    $4.00: 3.563 bets/spin, 889 spins played

    The sample is small enough that I could just be running good at the $4.00 level. It's also possible that the machines here are set at a higher overall RTP, as I am in a highly competitive market.

    I'm using your methodology of only counting the initially awarded number of free spins in the sample.

    On a personal note, good to see you back. Don't rush things. Setbacks can and do happen, and a majority of the time over-exertion plays a big role. Glad you're OK, Mick.

  4. #84
    Originally Posted by acescracked_1210 View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by acescracked_1210 View Post



    He can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Prozema was implying that he thought the reel strips themselves in the main game were different at the higher bet levels. I don't believe that's the case. I think the difference in base game return is solely due to the extra money taken out to fund better bonuses.
    The 75 level returns more units in the freespins than the higher bets levels but the frequencies to get to the multipliers are longer. The overall return to player is about the same on all 4 bet levels but big differences in the configurations. The 75 and 160 levels are pretty close in configuration but the 250 and 400 levels are quite different; smaller main game returns, shorter frequencies on the multipliers but also lower returns in the freespins.
    Small(ish) sample size, but I'm not sure I agree with the first part of your first sentence. The $2.50/$4.00 bet levels are quite heavily played in my locale. Current numbers are as follows:

    2x;

    $.75: 3.248 bets/spin, 1026 free spins played
    $1.60: 3.305 bets/spin, 1077 free spins played
    $2.50: 3.279 bets/spin, 864 free spins played
    $4.00: 3.563 bets/spin, 889 spins played

    The sample is small enough that I could just be running good at the $4.00 level. It's also possible that the machines here are set at a higher overall RTP, as I am in a highly competitive market.

    I'm using your methodology of only counting the initially awarded number of free spins in the sample.

    On a personal note, good to see you back. Don't rush things. Setbacks can and do happen, and a majority of the time over-exertion plays a big role. Glad you're OK, Mick.
    Thanks for the 2x spins. Very helpful. If you want to share your 3x and 4x spin result, I'm all ears.
    FYI - I really don't care why the reels payback is different on each bet level. I just need to know the payback.
    Last edited by Prozema; 12-14-2019 at 10:02 PM.

  5. #85
    Can someone remind me what the reset numbers are on buffalo diamonds? I know the 75 level is 2X 7, 3X 8, 4X 10. I can’t remember what they are on the 160, 250 and 400 levels. Thanks.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #86
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Can someone remind me what the reset numbers are on buffalo diamonds? I know the 75 level is 2X 7, 3X 8, 4X 10. I can’t remember what they are on the 160, 250 and 400 levels. Thanks.
    I sent you an image of the resets on Twitter.

  7. #87
    Originally Posted by Prozema View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Can someone remind me what the reset numbers are on buffalo diamonds? I know the 75 level is 2X 7, 3X 8, 4X 10. I can’t remember what they are on the 160, 250 and 400 levels. Thanks.
    I sent you an image of the resets on Twitter.
    Thanks.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #88
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Is 69.7+[100*banked_twotimes_spins*(.0059)]+[100*banked_threetimes_spins*(.001943)] >=100 ?
    If it is, then you can jump in on the play. Obviously you will miss out on some plays this way. But a cheapskate's comfort zone is what it is.
    Graphical Representation of a 2x/3x double meter BD play (75c) without consideration of the 4x meter (i.e. low variance play): note that everything in the pink zone is +EV and everything in the white zone is -EV: the line is the border between the +EV and -EV worlds (data credit:Mickeycrimm). Please note that the 2x banked games must be at least 7 and the 3x banked games must be at least 8 (x>=7 and y>=8).
    Name:  Screenshot_2019-12-19 Desmos Graphing Calculator.jpg
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    Last edited by tableplay; 12-19-2019 at 08:06 PM.

  9. #89
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Is 69.7+[100*banked_twotimes_spins*(.0059)]+[100*banked_threetimes_spins*(.001943)] >=100 ?
    If it is, then you can jump in on the play. Obviously you will miss out on some plays this way. But a cheapskate's comfort zone is what it is.
    Graphical Representation of a 2x/3x double meter BD play (75c) without consideration of the 4x meter (i.e. low variance play): note that everything in the pink zone is +EV and everything in the white zone is -EV: the line is the border between the +EV and -EV worlds (data credit:Mickeycrimm). Please note that the 2x banked games must be at least 7 and the 3x banked games must be at least 8 (x>=7 and y>=8).
    Name:  Screenshot_2019-12-19 Desmos Graphing Calculator.jpg
Views: 4241
Size:  35.6 KB
    Wow! That is really cool. Thank you for posting

  10. #90
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Wow! That is really cool. Thank you for posting
    Sure, no problem.

  11. #91
    Ben, since the 2-D plot does not show the magnitude of the EV (you are looking down at the 2-D plane) - only that it is +EV or -EV, I have decided to show a plot which does: a z-value of 100 (100% return) would be the break-even - you can imagine a flat plane parallel to the plane beneath the 3-D plot and then note that any part of the 3-D plot which crosses this plane at Z=100 is +EV. X= # of 2x banked games and Y=# of 3x banked games.
    Name:  
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    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by tableplay; 12-20-2019 at 09:46 AM.

  12. #92
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Ben, since the 2-D plot does not show the magnitude of the EV (you are looking down at the 2-D plane) - only that it is +EV or -EV, I have decided to show a plot which does: a z-value of 100 (100% return) would be the break-even - you can imagine a flat plane parallel to the plane beneath the 3-D plot and then note that any part of the 3-D plot which crosses this plane at Z=100 is +EV. X= # of 2x banked games and Y=# of 3x banked games.
    Name:  
Views: 
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    Even cooler! Thank you again!

  13. #93
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Ben, since the 2-D plot does not show the magnitude of the EV (you are looking down at the 2-D plane) - only that it is +EV or -EV, I have decided to show a plot which does: a z-value of 100 (100% return) would be the break-even - you can imagine a flat plane parallel to the plane beneath the 3-D plot and then note that any part of the 3-D plot which crosses this plane at Z=100 is +EV. X= # of 2x banked games and Y=# of 3x banked games.
    Name:  
Views: 
Size:
    Even cooler! Thank you again!

    So basically one may find a +EV play about once a month, nice.

  14. #94
    Originally Posted by PIGGY BANKER View Post
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Ben, since the 2-D plot does not show the magnitude of the EV (you are looking down at the 2-D plane) - only that it is +EV or -EV, I have decided to show a plot which does: a z-value of 100 (100% return) would be the break-even - you can imagine a flat plane parallel to the plane beneath the 3-D plot and then note that any part of the 3-D plot which crosses this plane at Z=100 is +EV. X= # of 2x banked games and Y=# of 3x banked games.
    Name:  
Views: 
Size:
    Even cooler! Thank you again!

    So basically one may find a +EV play about once a month, nice.
    Sure, if your in a market with a limited amount of machines. If your in a market with a lot of machines you will get plays more often, however unlike when these first came out, ploppies are wise to checking these now and take them too early so even if you are in a good market you still don’t find playable numbers on these too often anymore. They are just another trick in the tool bag now.

    When they first came out I got plays almost daily now I get plays almost weekly.

  15. #95
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    They are just another trick in the tool bag now.
    That's right Ben. An AP should have a lot of plays in their playbook so that the odds of at least one of them coming due are favorable.

  16. #96
    When you’re counting spins do you actually count each time you hit the button or do you estimate based on points accrued?

  17. #97
    Originally Posted by APStewardess View Post
    When you’re counting spins do you actually count each time you hit the button or do you estimate based on points accrued?
    Depends on whether or not you want the shop you're in tracking you. Small/discreet tally counters are available to count spins (for example https://www.amazon.com/South-Bend-SB.../dp/B00GI9X7JS).

  18. #98
    Found a 10-30-62 today.

    Lost $37

  19. #99
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by APStewardess View Post
    When you’re counting spins do you actually count each time you hit the button or do you estimate based on points accrued?
    Depends on whether or not you want the shop you're in tracking you. Small/discreet tally counters are available to count spins (for example https://www.amazon.com/South-Bend-SB.../dp/B00GI9X7JS).
    I'm a new AP and was planning on using a card for longer plays like this or must hits and not using a card for quick plays like UX or GE. Does that sound reasonable? Have casinos caused problems based on just the play and not for behavior like shoving little old ladies out of the way?

  20. #100
    Originally Posted by APStewardess View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by APStewardess View Post
    When you’re counting spins do you actually count each time you hit the button or do you estimate based on points accrued?
    Depends on whether or not you want the shop you're in tracking you. Small/discreet tally counters are available to count spins (for example https://www.amazon.com/South-Bend-SB.../dp/B00GI9X7JS).
    I'm a new AP and was planning on using a card for longer plays like this or must hits and not using a card for quick plays like UX or GE. Does that sound reasonable? Have casinos caused problems based on just the play and not for behavior like shoving little old ladies out of the way?
    It depends on the disposition of the shop you're at. If you use your card(s) over and over again for must hits or other longer plays at the same shop, some shops will care or will start to care eventually. You're a stewardess (presumably) so if you're hitting a lot of places and for short durations, you're more likely to be fine doing this - it doesn't sound unreasonable to do it like this, but to say that all places don't care about this would be wrong. Some do (or some will eventually if you keep pounding them). I guess the perks at the places you hit must be good, for you to want to run a card(s) at all. I mean not running a card(s) ever is not a bad way to go if you're edge is +5% (UX,GE,OM,JB and on and on and on). Otherwise I don't see why you wouldn't want to never run a card(s) (the plane rides and lodging are free for you). Yes casinos have caused problems based on just play - "May I help you find a particular game ?" says the security guard at the small, dead, shop who has nothing better to do as he sees you rifling through screens because you did not see or hear him quietly come nearby to observe you. Machine play draws less heat than the felt, but it certainly exists and you will certainly encounter it if you do this for a long time. Some of the machine pros on this forum may offer up more viewpoints/insight than my own.
    Last edited by tableplay; 03-04-2020 at 11:42 PM.

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