I like the decimal method for calculating plays. The decimals are derived by dividing the value of a freespin by the number of regular spins it takes to get it.
For example, on the 75 level, the value of a 2X freespin is 3.337 units (based on 6K freespins).
The frequency to get to the 2X is 565.56. This number comes from multiplying the number of regular games it takes to catch the wheel, 132.68, by the average number of wheel spins it takes to catch the 2X multiplier, 4.24. That works out to 565.56.
3.337/565.5 = .0059 rounded.
Decimal for 3X is .001943
Decimal for 4X is .001295
So say I run into this configuration 2X 33/3X 56/ 4X 102
main game return is 64.2%
2X meter speed is 5.536%
The 3X and 4X meter speeds are not included because most of the time we are going to hit the 2X first then quit the play.
We've got a 69.7% base game
33 X .0059 = .1947
56 X .001943 = .1088
102 X .001295 = 13.2%
Total 43.55%
69.7 + 43.55 = 113.25%
Keep in mind that even though it shows a big edge most of the time you are going to lose on this play because all of the edge is in the 4X. On a play like this you'll get a payday about every 11 or 12 plays if you can fade the losses in between.
Thanks to Prozema for the database to work with.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
deleted.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Fantastic post Mickey. Parlaying on this post - if you only are comfortable working with a small bank roll, like me,
Then just use the 2x and 3x numbers to determine if you want to jump in on a play (75c denom example):
Is 69.7+[100*banked_twotimes_spins*(.0059)]+[100*banked_threetimes_spins*(.001943)] >=100 ?
If it is, then you can jump in on the play. Obviously you will miss out on some plays this way. But a cheapskate's comfort zone is what it is.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Graphical Representation of a 2x/3x double meter BD play (75c) without consideration of the 4x meter (i.e. low variance play): note that everything in the pink zone is +EV and everything in the white zone is -EV: the line is the border between the +EV and -EV worlds (data credit:Mickeycrimm). Please note that the 2x banked games must be at least 7 and the 3x banked games must be at least 8 (x>=7 and y>=8).
Last edited by tableplay; 12-19-2019 at 08:06 PM.
Small(ish) sample size, but I'm not sure I agree with the first part of your first sentence. The $2.50/$4.00 bet levels are quite heavily played in my locale. Current numbers are as follows:
2x;
$.75: 3.248 bets/spin, 1026 free spins played
$1.60: 3.305 bets/spin, 1077 free spins played
$2.50: 3.279 bets/spin, 864 free spins played
$4.00: 3.563 bets/spin, 889 spins played
The sample is small enough that I could just be running good at the $4.00 level. It's also possible that the machines here are set at a higher overall RTP, as I am in a highly competitive market.
I'm using your methodology of only counting the initially awarded number of free spins in the sample.
On a personal note, good to see you back. Don't rush things. Setbacks can and do happen, and a majority of the time over-exertion plays a big role. Glad you're OK, Mick.
Last edited by Prozema; 12-14-2019 at 10:02 PM.
Can someone remind me what the reset numbers are on buffalo diamonds? I know the 75 level is 2X 7, 3X 8, 4X 10. I can’t remember what they are on the 160, 250 and 400 levels. Thanks.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Ben, since the 2-D plot does not show the magnitude of the EV (you are looking down at the 2-D plane) - only that it is +EV or -EV, I have decided to show a plot which does: a z-value of 100 (100% return) would be the break-even - you can imagine a flat plane parallel to the plane beneath the 3-D plot and then note that any part of the 3-D plot which crosses this plane at Z=100 is +EV. X= # of 2x banked games and Y=# of 3x banked games.
Last edited by tableplay; 12-20-2019 at 09:46 AM.
Sure, if your in a market with a limited amount of machines. If your in a market with a lot of machines you will get plays more often, however unlike when these first came out, ploppies are wise to checking these now and take them too early so even if you are in a good market you still don’t find playable numbers on these too often anymore. They are just another trick in the tool bag now.
When they first came out I got plays almost daily now I get plays almost weekly.
When you’re counting spins do you actually count each time you hit the button or do you estimate based on points accrued?
Depends on whether or not you want the shop you're in tracking you. Small/discreet tally counters are available to count spins (for example https://www.amazon.com/South-Bend-SB.../dp/B00GI9X7JS).
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